Novel sources of witches` broom resistance (causal agent Moniliophthora perniciosa) from natural populations of Theobroma cacao from the Brazilian Amazon

Witches` broom is a severe disease of Theobroma cacao L. (cacao), caused by the basidiomycete Moniliophthora perniciosa. The use of resistant cultivars is the ultimate method of control, but there are limited sources of resistance. Further, resistance from the most widely used source (`Scavina 6`) has been overcome after a few years of deployment. New sources of resistance have been intensively searched for in the Amazon basin. Here, we evaluated for witches` broom resistance, cacao accessions from various natural cacao populations originally collected in the Brazilian Amazon. Resistance of 43 families was evaluated under nursery and/or field conditions by artificial or natural infection, respectively, based on disease incidence. Screening for resistance by artificial inoculation under nursery conditions appeared to be efficient in identifying these novel resistance sources, confirmed by natural field evaluation over a nine-year period. The increase in natural field infection of `Scavina 6` was clearly demonstrated. Among the evaluated families with the least witches` broom incidence, there were accessions originally collected from distinct river basins, including the Jamari river (`CAB 0371`; `CAB 0388`; `CAB 0392`; and `CAB 0410`); Acre (`CAB 0169`); Javari (`CAB 0352`); Solimes (`CAB 0270`); and from the Purus river basin, the two most outstanding resistant accessions, `CAB 0208` and `CAB 0214`. The large genetic diversity found in cacao populations occurring at river basins from Acre and Amazonas states, Brazil, increased the chance that the selected resistant accessions would be genetically more dissimilar, and represent distinct sources of resistance to M. perniciosa from `Scavina 6`.

LEAF AREA REDUCTION IN CORN GROWN IN A TROPICAL REGION OF BRAZIL AND ITS EFFECTS ON AGRONOMIC TRAITS

Global climate change may reduce leaf area in crop plants due to factors such as increasing occurrence of pests and diseases. The aim of this work was to estimate the impact of leaf area reduction on agronomic traits in corn. An experiment simulating leaf area reduction was carried out in a tropical region of Brazil. The agronomic performance of corn plants was evaluated at different percentages of leaf loss. It was observed that leaf area reductions over 41.01% significantly harm yield, mass of 1000 grains, cob density, and stem and root quality Crop improvement programs should take into account the development of genotypes resistant to factors that cause leaf area reduction in tropical crops.

Expertise and the perception of kinematic and situational probability information

Two experiments were conducted on the nature of expert perception in the sport of squash. In the first experiment, ten expert and fifteen novice players attempted to predict the direction and force of squash strokes from either a film display (occluded at variable time periods before and after the opposing player had struck the ball) or a matched point-light display (containing only the basic kinematic features of the opponent's movement pattern). Experts outperformed the novices under both display conditions, and the same basic time windows that characterised expert and novice pick-up of information in the film task also persisted in the point-light task. This suggests that the experts' perceptual advantage is directly related to their superior pick-up of essential kinematic information. In the second experiment, the vision of six expert and six less skilled players was occluded by remotely triggered liquid-crystal spectacles at quasi-random intervals during simulated match play. Players were required to complete their current stroke even when the display was occluded and their prediction performance was assessed with respect to whether they moved to the correct half of the court to match the direction and depth of the opponent's stroke. Consistent with experiment 1, experts were found to be superior in their advance pick-up of both directional and depth information when the display was occluded during the opponent's hitting action. However, experts also remained better than chance, and clearly superior to less skilled players, in their prediction performance under conditions where occlusion occurred before any significant pre-contact preparatory movement by the opposing player was visible. This additional source of expert superiority is attributable to their superior attunement to the information contained in the situational probabilities and sequential dependences within their opponent's pattern of play.

Spatial, temporal, and human dimensions of air pollution in Brisbane

Arriving in Brisbane some six years ago, I could not help being impressed by what may be prosaically described as its atmospheric amenity resources. Perhaps this in part was due to my recent experiences in major urban centres in North America, but since that time, that sparkling quality and the blue skies seem to have progressively diminished. Unfortunately, there is also objective evidence available to suggest that this apparent deterioration is not merely the result of habituation of the senses. Air pollution data for the city show trends of increasing concentrations of those very substances that have destroyed the attractiveness of major population centres elsewhere, with climates initially as salubrious. Indeed, present figures indicate that photochemical smog in unacceptably high concentrations is rapidly becoming endemic also over Brisbane. These regrettable developments should come as no surprise. The society at large has not been inclined to respond purposefully to warnings of impending environmental problems, despite the experiences and publicity from overseas and even from other cities within Australia. Nor, up to the present, have certain politicians and government officials displayed stances beyond those necessary for the maintenance of a decorum of concern. At this stage, there still exists the possibility for meaningful government action without the embarrassment of losing political favour with the electorate. To the contrary, there is every chance that such action may be turned to advantage with increased public enlightenment. It would be more than a pity to miss perhaps the final remaining opportunity: Queensland is one of the few remaining places in the world with sufficient resources to permit both rational development and high environmental quality. The choice appears to be one of making a relatively minor investment now for a large financial and social gain the near future, or, permitting Brisbane to degenerate gradually into just another stagnated Los Angeles or Sydney. The present monograph attempts to introduce the problem by reviewing the available research on air quality in the Brisbane area. It also tries to elucidate some seemingly obvious, but so far unapplied management approaches. By necessity, such a broad treatment needs to make inroads into extensive ranges of subject areas, including political and legal practices to public perceptions, scientific measurement and statistical analysis to dynamics of air flow. Clearly, it does not pretend to be definitive in any of these fields, but it does try to emphasize those adjustable facets of the human use system of natural resources, too often neglected in favour of air pollution control technology. The crossing of disciplinary boundaries, however, needs no apology: air quality problems are ubiquitous, touching upon space, time and human interaction.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

A randomized trial of a problem-based learning approach for teaching epidemiology

Purpose. To conduct a controlled trial of traditional and problem-based learning (PBL) methods of teaching epidemiology. Method. All second-year medical students (n = 136) at The University of Western Australia Medical School were offered the chance to participate in a randomized controlled trial of teaching methods fur an epidemiology course. Students who consented to participate (n = 80) were randomly assigned to either a PBL or a traditional course. Students who did not consent or did not return the consent form (n = 56) were assigned to the traditional course, Students in both streams took identical quizzes and exams. These scores, a collection of semi-quantitative feedback from all students, and a qualitative analysis of interviews with a convenience sample of six students from each stream were compared. Results. There was no significant difference in performances on quizzes or exams between PBL and traditional students. Students using PBL reported a stronger grasp of epidemiologic principles, enjoyed working with a group, and, at the end of the course, were more enthusiastic about epidemiology and its professional relevance to them than were students in the traditional course. PBL students worked more steadily during the semester but spent only marginally more time on the epidemiology course overall. Interviews corroborated these findings. Non-consenting students were older (p < 0.02) and more likely to come from non-English-speaking backgrounds (p < 0.005). Conclusions. PBL provides an academically equivalent but personally far richer learning experience. The adoption of PBL approaches to medical education makes it important to study whether PBL presents particular challenges for students whose first language is not the language of instruction.

The advantages of theft over toil: The design inference and arguing from ignorance

Intelligent design theorist William Dembski has proposed an explanatory filter for distinguishing between events due to chance, lawful regularity or design. We show that if Dembski's filter were adopted as a scientific heuristic, some classical developments in science would not be rational, and that Dembski's assertion that the filter reliably identifies rarefied design requires ignoring the state of background knowledge. If background information changes even slightly, the filter's conclusion will vary wildly. Dembski fails to overcome Hume's objections to arguments from design.

3D reconstruction and quantification of macropores using X-ray computed tomography and image analysis

Axial X-ray Computed tomography (CT) scanning provides a convenient means of recording the three-dimensional form of soil structure. The technique has been used for nearly two decades, but initial development has concentrated on qualitative description of images. More recently, increasing effort has been put into quantifying the geometry and topology of macropores likely to contribute to preferential now in soils. Here we describe a novel technique for tracing connected macropores in the CT scans. After object extraction, three-dimensional mathematical morphological filters are applied to quantify the reconstructed structure. These filters consist of sequences of so-called erosions and/or dilations of a 32-face structuring element to describe object distances and volumes of influence. The tracing and quantification methodologies were tested on a set of undisturbed soil cores collected in a Swiss pre-alpine meadow, where a new earthworm species (Aporrectodea nocturna) was accidentally introduced. Given the reduced number of samples analysed in this study, the results presented only illustrate the potential of the method to reconstruct and quantify macropores. Our results suggest that the introduction of the new species induced very limited chance to the soil structured for example, no difference in total macropore length or mean diameter was observed. However. in the zone colonised by, the new species. individual macropores tended to have a longer average length. be more vertical and be further apart at some depth. Overall, the approach proved well suited to the analysis of the three-dimensional architecture of macropores. It provides a framework for the analysis of complex structures, which are less satisfactorily observed and described using 2D imaging. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Convective instability of 3-D fluid-saturated geological fault zones heated from below

We conduct a theoretical analysis to investigate the convective instability of 3-D fluid-saturated geological fault zones when they are heated uniformly from below. In particular, we have derived exact analytical solutions for the critical Rayleigh numbers of different convective flow structures. Using these critical Rayleigh numbers, three interesting convective flow structures have been identified in a geological fault zone system. It has been recognized that the critical Rayleigh numbers of the system have a minimum value only for the fault zone of infinite length, in which the corresponding convective flow structure is a 2-D slender-circle flow. However, if the length of the fault zone is finite, the convective flow in the system must be 3-D. Even if the length of the fault zone is infinite, since the minimum critical Rayleigh number for the 2-D slender-circle flow structure is so close to that for the 3-D convective flow structure, the system may have almost the same chance to pick up the 3-D convective flow structures. Also, because the convection modes are so close for the 3-D convective flow structures, the convective flow may evolve into the 3-D finger-like structures, especially for the case of the fault thickness to height ratio approaching zero. This understanding demonstrates the beautiful aspects of the present analytical solution for the convective instability of 3-D geological fault zones, because the present analytical solution is valid for any value of the ratio of the fault height to thickness. Using the present analytical solution, the conditions, under which different convective flow structures may take place, can be easily determined.

The game to play: expanding the co-opetition proposal through the strategic games matrix

Purpose - Using Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s 1995 co-opetition model as a reference, the purpose of this paper is to seek to develop a tool that, based on the tenets of classical game theory, would enable scholars and managers to identify which games may be played in response to the different conflict of interest situations faced by companies in their business environments. Design/methodology/approach - The literature on game theory and business strategy are reviewed and a conceptual model, the strategic games matrix (SGM), is developed. Two novel games are described and modeled. Findings - The co-opetition model is not sufficient to realistically represent most of the conflict of interest situations faced by companies. It seeks to address this problem through development of the SGM, which expands upon Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s model by providing a broader perspective, through incorporation of an additional dimension (power ratio between players) and three novel, respectively, (rival, individualistic, and associative). Practical implications - This proposed model, based on the concepts of game theory, should be used to train decision- and policy-makers to better understand, interpret and formulate conflict management strategies. Originality/value - A practical and original tool to use game models in conflict of interest situations is generated. Basic classical games, such as Nash, Stackelberg, Pareto, and Minimax, are mapped on the SGM to suggest in which situations they Could be useful. Two innovative games are described to fit four different types of conflict situations that so far have no corresponding game in the literature. A test application of the SGM to a classic Intel Corporation strategic management case, in the complex personal computer industry, shows that the proposed method is able to describe, to interpret, to analyze, and to prescribe optimal competitive and/or cooperative strategies for each conflict of interest situation.

Cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors for major depression in children and adolescents

Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) in children and adolescents, compared to 'current practice'. Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filter criteria ('equity'; 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are tracked for the duration of a new episode of MDD arising in eligible children (age 6-17 years) in the Australian population in the year 2000. Simulation-modelling techniques are used to present a 95% uncertainty interval (UI) around the cost-effectiveness ratios. Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by public psychologists is the most cost-effective intervention for MDD in children and adolescents at A$9000 per DALY saved (95% UI A$3900 to A$24 000). SSRIs and CBT by other providers are less cost-effective but likely to be less than A$50 000 per DALY saved (> 80% chance). CBT is more effective than SSRIs in children and adolescents, resulting in a greater total health benefit (DALYs saved) than could be achieved with SSRIs. Issues that require attention for the CBT intervention include equity concerns, ensuring an adequate workforce, funding arrangements and acceptability to various stakeholders. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy provided by a public psychologist is the most effective and cost-effective option for the first-line treatment of MDD in children and adolescents. However, this option is not currently accessible by all patients and will require change in policy to allow more widespread uptake. It will also require 'start-up' costs and attention to ensuring an adequate workforce.

Binary games with many players

We examine a problem with n players each facing the same binary choice. One choice is superior to the other. The simple assumption of competition - that an individual's payoff falls with a rise in the number of players making the same choice, guarantees the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium (involving mixed strategies). As n increases, there are two opposing effects. First, events in the middle of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as many others - become more likely, but the payoffs in these events fall. In opposition, events in the tails of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as few others - become less likely, but the payoffs in these events remain high. We provide a sufficient condition (strong competition) under which an increase in the number of players leads to a reduction in the equilibrium probability that the superior choice is made.

Double diffusion-driven convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones heated from below

We conduct a theoretical analysis to investigate the double diffusion-driven convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones when they are heated uniformly from below. The fault zone is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In particular, we have derived exact analytical solutions to the total critical Rayleigh numbers of the double diffusion-driven convective flow. Using the corresponding total critical Rayleigh numbers, the double diffusion-driven convective instability of a fluid-saturated three-dimensional geological fault zone system has been investigated. The related theoretical analysis demonstrates that: (1) The relative higher concentration of the chemical species at the top of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system can destabilize the convective flow of the system, while the relative lower concentration of the chemical species at the top of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system can stabilize the convective flow of the system. (2) The double diffusion-driven convective flow modes of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system are very close each other and therefore, the system may have the similar chance to pick up different double diffusion-driven convective flow modes, especially in the case of the fault thickness to height ratio approaching 0. (3) The significant influence of the chemical species diffusion on the convective instability of the three-dimensional geological fault zone system implies that the seawater intrusion into the surface of the Earth is a potential mechanism to trigger the convective flow in the shallow three-dimensional geological fault zone system.

The role of R&D technology in asymmetric research joint ventures

We characterize asymmetric equilibria in two-stage process innovation games and show that they are prevalent in the different models of R&D technology considered in the literature. Indeed, cooperation in R&D may be accompanied by high concentration in the product market. We show that while such an increase may be profitable, it may be socially inefficient.