El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Bimanual co-ordination in Huntington's disease

The ability of Huntington's disease patients to co-ordinate their two hands with and without external cueing was investigated. Twelve Huntington's disease patients and sex- and age-matched controls performed a bimanual cranking task at two speeds (0.5 Hz, 1.5 Hz) and phase relationships (in-phase, anti-phase), with and without an external metronome cue. Data were sampled at 200 Hz, and raw displacement data for each hand, mean and standard deviation measures of the relative positions of the two hands and their velocities were then calculated. All participants could perform the in-phase movement, at both speeds; however, the Huntington's disease patients were more variable and less accurate than the control participants, particularly at the fast speed. While controls could perform the anti-phase movement, in which rotation of the cranks differed by 180 degrees at both speeds, Huntington's disease patients were unable to do so at either speed, reverting to the in-phase movement at the slow speed. An external metronome cue did not improve the performance of the Huntington's disease patients, which differentiated this group from patients suffering from Parkinson's disease. The Huntington's disease patients' inability to perform the anti-phase movement may be due to damage to the basal ganglia and its output regions.

Resident tissue macrophages within the normal rat iris lack immunosuppressive activity and are effective antigen-presenting cells

Despite extensive study of the numerous immunoregulatory mechanisms that contribute to the immune-privileged nature of the anterior chamber (AC) of the eye, little is known of the functional nature of antigen-presenting cells (APC) present in the tissues adjoining the AC. In the present study, we have compared the antigen-presenting capacity of dendritic cells (DC) and macrophages isolated from the normal rat iris. Whereas iris DC exhibited a potent ability to stimulate resting allogeneic T cells in MLR cultures (an in-vitro correlate of the ability to induce primary T cell responses), resident iris macrophages displayed negligible MLR-stimulatory capacity. Significantly, iris macrophages could efficiently elicit proliferation of primed antigen-specific T cells (an in-vitro correlate of the ability to act as local APC in secondary responses). This antigen-presenting activity was approximately half that of fully mature iris DC and considerably greater than that of freshly isolated iris DC. A key contributor to the effectiveness of resident iris macrophage antigen presentation was considered to be the absence of lymphocytostatic control of T cell proliferation exerted by these cells. The results indicate dichotomous but complementary roles for DC (immune surveillance) and macrophages (local antigen presentation in secondary responses) in this tissue.

Residence time distributions of gas flowing through rotating drum bioreactors

Residence time distribution studies of gas through a rotating drum bioreactor for solid-state fermentation were performed using carbon monoxide as a tracer gas. The exit concentration as a function of time differed considerably from profiles expected for plug flow, plug flow with axial dispersion, and continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) models. The data were then fitted by least-squares analysis to mathematical models describing a central plug flow region surrounded by either one dead region (a three-parameter model) or two dead regions (a five-parameter model). Model parameters were the dispersion coefficient in the central plug flow region, the volumes of the dead regions, and the exchange rates between the different regions. The superficial velocity of the gas through the reactor has a large effect on parameter values. Increased superficial velocity tends to decrease dead region volumes, interregion transfer rates, and axial dispersion. The significant deviation from CSTR, plug flow, and plug flow with axial dispersion of the residence time distribution of gas within small-scale reactors can lead to underestimation of the calculation of mass and heat transfer coefficients and hence has implications for reactor design and scaleup. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The polar ionosphere at Zhongshan Station on May 11, 1999, the day the solar wind almost disappeared

The solar wind almost disappeared on May 11,1999: the solar wind plasma density and' dynamic pressure were less than 1 cm(-3) and 0.1 nPa respectively, while the interplanetary magnetic field was northward. The polar ionospheric data observed by the multi-instruments at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica on such special event day was compared with those of the control day (May 14). It was shown that geomagnetic activity was very quiet on May 11 at Zhongshan. The magnetic pulsation, which usually occurred at about magnetic noon, did not appear. The ionosphere was steady and stratified, and the F-2 layer spread very little. The critical frequency of dayside F-2 layer, f(0)F(2), was larger than that of control day, and the peak of f(0)F(2) appeared 2 hours earlier. The ionospheric drift velocity was less than usual. There were intensive auroral E-s appearing at magnetic noon. All this indicates that the polar ionosphere was extremely quiet and geomagnetic field was much more dipolar on May 11. There were some signatures of auroral substorm before midnight, such as the negative deviation of the geomagnetic H component, accompanied with auroral E-s and weak Pc3 pulsation.

Surface miscibility of EPC/DOTAP/DOPE in binary and ternary mixed monolayers

Surface pressure (pi)-molecular area (A) curves were used to characterize the packing of pseudo-ternary mixed Langmuir monolayers of egg phosphatidylcholine (EPC), 1,2-dioleoyl-3-trimethylammonium propane (DOTAP) and L-alpha-dioleoyl phosphatidylethanolamine (DOPE). This pseudo-ternary mixture EPC/DOPE/DOTAP has been successfully employed in liposome formulations designed for DNA non-viral vectors. Pseudo-binary mixtures were also studied as a control. Miscibility behavior was inferred from pi-A curves applying the additivity rule by calculating the excess free energy of mixture (Delta G(Exc)). The interaction between the lipids was also deduced from the surface compressional modulus (C(s)(-1)). The deviation from ideality shows dependence on the lipid polar head type and monolayer composition. For lower DOPE concentrations, the forces are predominantly attractive. However, if the monolayer is DOPE rich, the DOTAP presence disturbs the PE-PE intermolecular interaction and the net interaction is then repulsive. The ternary monolayer EPC/DOPE/DOTAP presented itself in two configurations, modulated by the DOPE content, in a similar behavior to the DOPE/DOTAP monolayers. These results contribute to the understanding of the lipid interactions and packing in self-assembled systems associated with the in vitro and in vivo stability of liposomes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Solvent Effects in Optical Spectra of ortho-Aminobenzoic Acid Derivatives

We investigated three amino derivatives of ortho-aminobenzoic or anthranilic acid (o-Abz): a) 2-Amino-benzamide (AbzNH(2)); b) 2-Amino-N-methyl-benzamide (AbzNHCH(3)) and c) 2-Amino-N-N`-dimethyl-bezamide (AbzNH(CH(3))(2)), see Scheme 1. We describe the results of ab-initio calculations on the structural characteristics of the compounds and experimental studies about solvent effects in their absorption and steady-state and time-resolved emission properties. Ab-initio calculations showed higher stability for the rotameric conformation in which the oxygen of carbonyl is near to the nitrogen of ortho-amino group. The derivatives present decrease in the delocalization of pi electron, and absorption bands are blue shifted compared to the parent compound absorption, the extent of the effect increasing from to Abz-NH(2) to Abz-NHCH(3) Abz-NH(CH(3))(2). Measurements performed in several solvents have shown that the the dependence of Stokes shift of the derivatives with the orientational polarizability follows the Onsager-Lippert model for general effects of solvent. However deviation occurred in solvents with properties of Bronsted acids, or electron acceptor characteristics, so that hydrogen bonds formed with protic solvents predominates over intramolecular hydrogen bond. In most solvents the fluorescence decay of AbzNH(2) and AbzNHCH(3) was fitted to a single exponential with lifetimes around 7.0 ns and no correlation with polarity of the solvent was observed. The fluorescence decay of AbzN(CH(3))(2) showed lifetimes around 2.0 ns, consistent with low quantum yield of the compound. The spectroscopic properties of the monoamino derivative AbzNHCH(3) are representative of the properties presented by Abz labelled peptides and fatty acids previously studied.

A comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific Region

PURPOSE: Many guidelines advocate measurement of total or low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglycerides (TG) to determine treatment recommendations for preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This analysis is a comparison of lipid variables as predictors of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Hazard ratios for coronary and cardiovascular deaths by fourths of total cholesterol (TC), LDL, HDL, TG, non-HDL, TC/HDL, and TG/HDL values, and for a one standard deviation change in these variables, were derived in an individual participant data meta-analysis of 32 cohort studies conducted in the Asia-Pacific region. The predictive value of each lipid variable was assessed using the likelihood ratio statistic. RESULTS: Adjusting for confounders and regression dilution, each lipid variable had a positive (negative for HDL) log-linear association with fatal CHD and CVD. Individuals in the highest fourth of each lipid variable had approximately twice the risk of CHD compared with those with lowest levels. TG and HDL were each better predictors of CHD and CVD risk compared with TC alone, with test statistics similar to TC/HDL and TG/HDL ratios. Calculated LDL was a relatively poor predictor. CONCLUSIONS: While LDL reduction remains the main target of intervention for lipid-lowering, these data support the potential use of TG or lipid ratios for CHD risk prediction. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validated spectrophotometric and spectrofluorimetric methods for determination of chloroaluminum phthalocyanine in nanocarriers

UV-VIS-Spectrophotometric and spectrofluorimetric methods have been developed and validated allowing the quantification of chloroaluminum phthalocyanine (CIAIPc) in nanocarriers. In order to validate the methods, the linearity, limit of detection (LOD), limit of quantification (LOQ), precision, accuracy, and selectivity were examined according to USP 30 and ICH guidelines. Linearities range were found between 0.50-3.00 mu g.mL(-1) (Y=0.3829 X [CIAIPc, mu g.mL(-1)] + 0.0126; r=0.9992) for spectrophotometry, and 0.05-1.00 mu g.mL(-1) (Y=2.24 x 10(6) X [CIAIPc, mu g.L(-1)] + 9.74 x 10(4); r=0.9978) for spectrofluorimetry. In addition, ANOVA and Lack-of-fit tests demonstrated that the regression equations were statistically significant (p<0.05), and the resulting linear model is fully adequate for both analytical methods. The LOD values were 0.09 and 0.01 mu g.mL(-1), while the LOCI were 0.27 and 0.04 mu g.mL(-1) for spectrophotometric and spectrofluorimetric methods, respectively. Repeatability and intermediate precision for proposed methods showed relative standard deviation (RSD) between 0.58% to 4.80%. The percent recovery ranged from 98.9% to 102.7% for spectrophotometric analyses and from 94.2% to 101.2% for spectrofluorimetry. No interferences from common excipients were detected and both methods were considered specific. Therefore, the methods are accurate, precise, specific, and reproducible and hence can be applied for quantification of CIAIPc in nanoemulsions (NE) and nanocapsules (NC).

Experimental study of the deposition of combustion aerosols in the human respiratory tract

The total deposition of environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), diesel and petrol smoke in the respiratory tract of 14 non-smokers between the ages of 20 and 30 was determined experimentally. A scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) measuring a size range of 0.016-0.626 mu m was used to characterise the inhaled and exhaled aerosol during relaxed nasal breathing over a period of 10 min. The ETS, diesel, and petrol particles had average count median diameter (and geometric standard deviation) of 0.183 mu m (1.7), 0.125 mu m (1.7), and 0.069 mu m (1.7), respectively. The average total number deposition of ETS was 36% (standard deviation 10%), of diesel smoke 30% (standard deviation 9%), and of petrol smoke 41% (standard deviation 8%). The analysis of the deposition patterns as a function of particle size for the three aerosols in each individual showed that there is a significant difference between each aerosol for a majority of individuals (12 out of 14). This is an important result as it indicates that differences persist regardless of inter-subject variability. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tooth loss in Brazilian middle-aged adults: multilevel effects

Objective. To examine the link between tooth loss and multilevel factors in a national sample of middle-aged adults in Brazil. Material and methods. Analyses were based on the 2003 cross-sectional national epidemiological survey of the oral health of the Brazilian population, which covered 13 431 individuals (age 35-44 years). Multistage cluster sampling was used. The dependent variable was tooth loss and the independent variables were classified according to the individual or contextual level. A multilevel negative binomial regression model was adopted. Results. The average tooth loss was 14 (standard deviation 9.5) teeth. Half of the individuals had lost 12 teeth. The contextual variables showed independent effects on tooth loss. It was found that having 9 years or more of schooling was associated with protection against tooth loss (means ratio range 0.68-0.76). Not having visited the dentist and not having visited in the last >= 3 years accounted for increases of 33.5% and 21.3%, respectively, in the risk of tooth loss (P < 0.05). The increase in tooth extraction ratio showed a strong contextual effect on increased risk of tooth loss, besides changing the effect of protective variables. Conclusions. Tooth loss in middle-aged adults has important associations with social determinants of health. This study points to the importance of the social context as the main cause of oral health injuries suffered by most middle-aged Brazilian adults.

Characterization of optically driven fluid stress fields with optical tweezers

We present a controlled stress microviscometer with applications to complex fluids. It generates and measures microscopic fluid velocity fields, based on dual beam optical tweezers. This allows an investigation of bulk viscous properties and local inhomogeneities at the probe particle surface. The accuracy of the method is demonstrated in water. In a complex fluid model (hyaluronic acid), we observe a strong deviation of the flow field from classical behavior. Knowledge of the deviation together with an optical torque measurement is used to determine the bulk viscosity. Furthermore, we model the observed deviation and derive microscopic parameters.

Clinical changes of cervical dystonia pattern in long-term botulinum toxin treated patients

Cervical dystonia (CD) is a complex disorder but the response to long-term botulinum toxin (BTX) therapy is satisfactory in most cases. Bad results are attributed by some authors to changes in muscle activation. Our purpose is to verify if the change in head deviation affects negatively the response to BTX therapy it) a long-term follow-up, and if there are any differences in clinical parameters of these patients in comparison to those with stable pattern. From a total of 88 patients evaluated at the Movement Disorders Clinics of Hospital das Clinicas - University of Sao Paulo School of Medicine between January 1993 and December 2005, 67 were included. In 24 (35.8%) change in pattern of CID was observed, in a medium follow-up period of 80 months. The time between onset of dystonia and the diagnosis of pattern change was 9.7 years. Comparing with patients with no changes in CD pattern, there were no significant statistical differences. Improvement of symptoms around 60% was reported in both groups. In conclusion, the change in head deviation observed in CD was not responsible for bad response to therapy with BTX and there were no significant differences between both groups. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Standard Values for Real-Time Transthoracic Three-Dimensional Echocardiographic Dyssynchrony Indexes in a Normal Population

Background: There is a paucity of information describing the real-time 3-dimensional echocardiography (RT3DE) and dyssynchrony indexes (DIs) of a normal population. We evaluate the RT3DE DIs in a population with normal electrocardiograms and 2- and 3-dimensional echocardiographic analyses. This information is relevant for cardiac resynchronization therapy. Methods: We evaluated 131 healthy volunteers (73 were male, aged 46 +/- 14 years) who were referred for routine echocardiography; who presented normal cardiac structure on electrocardiography, 2-dimensional echocardiography, and RT3DE; and who had no history of cardiac diseases. We analyzed 3-dimensional left ventricular ejection fraction, left ventricle end-diastolic volume, left ventricle end-systolic volume, and left ventricular systolic DI% (6-, 12-, and 16-segment models). RT3DE data were analyzed by quantifying the statistical distribution (mean, median, standard deviation [SD], relative SD, coefficient of skewness, coefficient of kurtosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, D`Agostino-Pearson test, percentiles, and 95% confidence interval). Results: Left ventricular ejection fraction ranged from 50% to 80% (66.1% +/- 7.1%); left ventricle end-diastolic volume ranged from 39.8 to 145 mL (79.1 +/- 24.9 mL); left ventricle end-systolic volume ranged from 12.9 to 66 mL (27 +/- 12.1 mL); 6-segment DI% ranged from 0.20% to 3.80% (1.21% +/- 0.66%), median: 1.06, relative SD: 0.5482, coefficient of skewness: 1.2620 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 1.9956 (P = .0039); percentile 2.5%: 0.2900, percentile 97.5%: 2.8300; 12-segment DI% ranged from 0.22% to 4.01% (1.29% +/- 0.71%), median: 1.14, relative SD: 0.95, coefficient of skewness: 1.1089 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 1.6372 (P = .0100), percentile 2.5%: 0.2850, percentile 97.5%: 3.0700; and 16-segment DI% ranged from 0.29% to 4.88% (1.59 +/- 0.99), median: 1.39, relative SD: 0.56, coefficient of skewness: 1.0792 (P < .0001), coefficient of Kurtosis: 0.9248 (P = .07), percentile 2.5%: 0.3750, percentile 97.5%: 3.750. Conclusion: This study allows for the quantification of RT3DE DIs in normal subjects, providing a comparison for patients with heart failure who may be candidates for cardiac resynchronization therapy. (J Am Soc Echocardiogr 2008; 21: 1229-1235)