Exploiting ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System for numerical weather prediction

Data assimilation provides an initial atmospheric state, called the analysis, for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This analysis consists of pressure, temperature, wind, and humidity on a three-dimensional NWP model grid. Data assimilation blends meteorological observations with the NWP model in a statistically optimal way. The objective of this thesis is to describe methodological development carried out in order to allow data assimilation of ground-based measurements of the Global Positioning System (GPS) into the High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) NWP system. Geodetic processing produces observations of tropospheric delay. These observations can be processed either for vertical columns at each GPS receiver station, or for the individual propagation paths of the microwave signals. These alternative processing methods result in Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) and Slant Delay (SD) observations, respectively. ZTD and SD observations are of use in the analysis of atmospheric humidity. A method is introduced for estimation of the horizontal error covariance of ZTD observations. The method makes use of observation minus model background (OmB) sequences of ZTD and conventional observations. It is demonstrated that the ZTD observation error covariance is relatively large in station separations shorter than 200 km, but non-zero covariances also appear at considerably larger station separations. The relatively low density of radiosonde observing stations limits the ability of the proposed estimation method to resolve the shortest length-scales of error covariance. SD observations are shown to contain a statistically significant signal on the asymmetry of the atmospheric humidity field. However, the asymmetric component of SD is found to be nearly always smaller than the standard deviation of the SD observation error. SD observation modelling is described in detail, and other issues relating to SD data assimilation are also discussed. These include the determination of error statistics, the tuning of observation quality control and allowing the taking into account of local observation error correlation. The experiments made show that the data assimilation system is able to retrieve the asymmetric information content of hypothetical SD observations at a single receiver station. Moreover, the impact of real SD observations on humidity analysis is comparable to that of other observing systems.

Predicting spin of compact objects from their QPOs: A global QPO model

We establish a unified model to explain Quasi-Periodic-Oscillation (QPO) observed from black hole and neutron star systems globally. This is based on the accreting systems thought to be damped harmonic oscillators with higher order nonlinearity. The model explains multiple properties parallelly independent of the nature of the compact object. It describes QPOs successfully for several compact sources. Based on it, we predict the spin frequency of the neutron star Sco X-1 and the specific angular momentum of black holes GRO J1655-40, GRS 1915+105.

Improving GPS time series for geodynamic studies

Accurate and stable time series of geodetic parameters can be used to help in understanding the dynamic Earth and its response to global change. The Global Positioning System, GPS, has proven to be invaluable in modern geodynamic studies. In Fennoscandia the first GPS networks were set up in 1993. These networks form the basis of the national reference frames in the area, but they also provide long and important time series for crustal deformation studies. These time series can be used, for example, to better constrain the ice history of the last ice age and the Earth s structure, via existing glacial isostatic adjustment models. To improve the accuracy and stability of the GPS time series, the possible nuisance parameters and error sources need to be minimized. We have analysed GPS time series to study two phenomena. First, we study the refraction in the neutral atmosphere of the GPS signal, and, second, we study the surface loading of the crust by environmental factors, namely the non-tidal Baltic Sea, atmospheric load and varying continental water reservoirs. We studied the atmospheric effects on the GPS time series by comparing the standard method to slant delays derived from a regional numerical weather model. We have presented a method for correcting the atmospheric delays at the observational level. The results show that both standard atmosphere modelling and the atmospheric delays derived from a numerical weather model by ray-tracing provide a stable solution. The advantage of the latter is that the number of unknowns used in the computation decreases and thus, the computation may become faster and more robust. The computation can also be done with any processing software that allows the atmospheric correction to be turned off. The crustal deformation due to loading was computed by convolving Green s functions with surface load data, that is to say, global hydrology models, global numerical weather models and a local model for the Baltic Sea. The result was that the loading factors can be seen in the GPS coordinate time series. Reducing the computed deformation from the vertical time series of GPS coordinates reduces the scatter of the time series; however, the long term trends are not influenced. We show that global hydrology models and the local sea surface can explain up to 30% of the GPS time series variation. On the other hand atmospheric loading admittance in the GPS time series is low, and different hydrological surface load models could not be validated in the present study. In order to be used for GPS corrections in the future, both atmospheric loading and hydrological models need further analysis and improvements.

A model based factorization approach for dense 3D recovery from monocular video

Feature track matrix factorization based methods have been attractive solutions to the Structure-front-motion (Sfnl) problem. Group motion of the feature points is analyzed to get the 3D information. It is well known that the factorization formulations give rise to rank deficient system of equations. Even when enough constraints exist, the extracted models are sparse due the unavailability of pixel level tracks. Pixel level tracking of 3D surfaces is a difficult problem, particularly when the surface has very little texture as in a human face. Only sparsely located feature points can be tracked and tracking error arc inevitable along rotating lose texture surfaces. However, the 3D models of an object class lie in a subspace of the set of all possible 3D models. We propose a novel solution to the Structure-from-motion problem which utilizes the high-resolution 3D obtained from range scanner to compute a basis for this desired subspace. Adding subspace constraints during factorization also facilitates removal of tracking noise which causes distortions outside the subspace. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our formulation by extracting dense 3D structure of a human face and comparing it with a well known Structure-front-motion algorithm due to Brand.

An asymptotic analysis of a simple model for the structure and dynamics of the Ramdas layer

This paper presents a complete asymptotic analysis of a simple model for the evolution of the nocturnal temperature distribution on bare soil in calm clear conditions. The model is based on a simplified flux emissivity scheme that provides a nondiffusive local approximation for estimating longwave radiative cooling near ground. An examination of the various parameters involved shows that the ratio of the characteristic radiative to the diffusive timescale in the problem is of order 10(-3), and can therefore be treated as a small parameter (mu). Certain other plausible approximations and linearization lead to a new equation whose asymptotic solution as mu --> 0 can be written in closed form. Four regimes, consishttp://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/cgi/users/home?screen=EPrint::Edit&eprintid=27192&stage=core#tting of a transient at nominal sunset, a radiative-diffusive boundary ('Ramdas') layer on ground, a boundary layer transient and a radiative outer solution, are identified. The asymptotic solution reproduces all the qualitative features of more exact numerical simulations, including the occurrence of a lifted temperature minimum and its evolution during night, ranging from continuing growth to relatively sudden collapse of the Ramdas layer.

Bootstrapping the Error Correction Model Cointegration Test

This paper is concerned with using the bootstrap to obtain improved critical values for the error correction model (ECM) cointegration test in dynamic models. In the paper we investigate the effects of dynamic specification on the size and power of the ECM cointegration test with bootstrap critical values. The results from a Monte Carlo study show that the size of the bootstrap ECM cointegration test is close to the nominal significance level. We find that overspecification of the lag length results in a loss of power. Underspecification of the lag length results in size distortion. The performance of the bootstrap ECM cointegration test deteriorates if the correct lag length is not used in the ECM. The bootstrap ECM cointegration test is therefore not robust to model misspecification.

Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle

Recent studies have shown that changes in global mean precipitation are larger for solar forcing than for CO2 forcing of similar magnitude.In this paper, we use an atmospheric general circulation model to show that the differences originate from differing fast responses of the climate system. We estimate the adjusted radiative forcing and fast response using Hansen's ``fixed-SST forcing'' method.Total climate system response is calculated using mixed layer simulations using the same model. Our analysis shows that the fast response is almost 40% of the total response for few key variables like precipitation and evaporation. We further demonstrate that the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the change in global mean precipitation per unit warming, is the same for the two forcings when the fast responses are excluded from the definition of hydrologic sensitivity, suggesting that the slow response (feedback) of the hydrological cycle is independent of the forcing mechanism. Based on our results, we recommend that the fast and slow response be compared separately in multi-model intercomparisons to discover and understand robust responses in hydrologic cycle. The significance of this study to geoengineering is discussed.

Uniformly valid analytical solution to the problem of a decaying shock wave

An explicit representation of an analytical solution to the problem of decay of a plane shock wave of arbitrary strength is proposed. The solution satisfies the basic equations exactly. The approximation lies in the (approximate) satisfaction of two of the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions. The error incurred is shown to be very small even for strong shocks. This solution analyses the interaction of a shock of arbitrary strength with a centred simple wave overtaking it, and describes a complete history of decay with a remarkable accuracy even for strong shocks. For a weak shock, the limiting law of motion obtained from the solution is shown to be in complete agreement with the Friedrichs theory. The propagation law of the non-uniform shock wave is determined, and the equations for shock and particle paths in the (x, t)-plane are obtained. The analytic solution presented here is uniformly valid for the entire flow field behind the decaying shock wave.

Some nonstandard error analysis of discontinuous Galerkin methods for elliptic problems

An a priori error analysis of discontinuous Galerkin methods for a general elliptic problem is derived under a mild elliptic regularity assumption on the solution. This is accomplished by using some techniques from a posteriori error analysis. The model problem is assumed to satisfy a GAyenrding type inequality. Optimal order L (2) norm a priori error estimates are derived for an adjoint consistent interior penalty method.

Exact traveling- wave solution for model geophysical systems

Exact traveling-wave solutions of time-dependent nonlinear inhomogeneous PDEs, describing several model systems in geophysical fluid dynamics, are found. The reduced nonlinear ODEs are treated as systems of linear algebraic equations in the derivatives. A variety of solutions are found, depending on the rank of the algebraic systems. The geophysical systems include acoustic gravity waves, inertial waves, and Rossby waves. The solutions describe waves which are, in general, either periodic or monoclinic. The present approach is compared with the earlier one due to Grundland (1974) for finding exact solutions of inhomogeneous systems of nonlinear PDEs.

Constructing a Community : Myths and Realities of the Open Development Model

The open development model of software production has been characterized as the future model of knowledge production and distributed work. Open development model refers to publicly available source code ensured by an open source license, and the extensive and varied distributed participation of volunteers enabled by the Internet. Contemporary spokesmen of open source communities and academics view open source development as a new form of volunteer work activity characterized by hacker ethic and bazaar governance . The development of the Linux operating system is perhaps the best know example of such an open source project. It started as an effort by a user-developer and grew quickly into a large project with hundreds of user-developer as contributors. However, in hybrids , in which firms participate in open source projects oriented towards end-users, it seems that most users do not write code. The OpenOffice.org project, initiated by Sun Microsystems, in this study represents such a project. In addition, the Finnish public sector ICT decision-making concerning open source use is studied. The purpose is to explore the assumptions, theories and myths related to the open development model by analysing the discursive construction of the OpenOffice.org community: its developers, users and management. The qualitative study aims at shedding light on the dynamics and challenges of community construction and maintenance, and related power relations in hybrid open source, by asking two main research questions: How is the structure and membership constellation of the community, specifically the relation between developers and users linguistically constructed in hybrid open development? What characterizes Internet-mediated virtual communities and how can they be defined? How do they differ from hierarchical forms of knowledge production on one hand and from traditional volunteer communities on the other? The study utilizes sociological, psychological and anthropological concepts of community for understanding the connection between the real and the imaginary in so-called virtual open source communities. Intermediary methodological and analytical concepts are borrowed from discourse and rhetorical theories. A discursive-rhetorical approach is offered as a methodological toolkit for studying texts and writing in Internet communities. The empirical chapters approach the problem of community and its membership from four complementary points of views. The data comprises mailing list discussion, personal interviews, web page writings, email exchanges, field notes and other historical documents. The four viewpoints are: 1) the community as conceived by volunteers 2) the individual contributor s attachment to the project 3) public sector organizations as users of open source 4) the community as articulated by the community manager. I arrive at four conclusions concerning my empirical studies (1-4) and two general conclusions (5-6). 1) Sun Microsystems and OpenOffice.org Groupware volunteers failed in developing necessary and sufficient open code and open dialogue to ensure collaboration thus splitting the Groupware community into volunteers we and the firm them . 2) Instead of separating intrinsic and extrinsic motivations, I find that volunteers unique patterns of motivations are tied to changing objects and personal histories prior and during participation in the OpenOffice.org Lingucomponent project. Rather than seeing volunteers as a unified community, they can be better understood as independent entrepreneurs in search of a collaborative community . The boundaries between work and hobby are blurred and shifting, thus questioning the usefulness of the concept of volunteer . 3) The public sector ICT discourse portrays a dilemma and tension between the freedom to choose, use and develop one s desktop in the spirit of open source on one hand and the striving for better desktop control and maintenance by IT staff and user advocates, on the other. The link between the global OpenOffice.org community and the local end-user practices are weak and mediated by the problematic IT staff-(end)user relationship. 4) Authoring community can be seen as a new hybrid open source community-type of managerial practice. The ambiguous concept of community is a powerful strategic tool for orienting towards multiple real and imaginary audiences as evidenced in the global membership rhetoric. 5) The changing and contradictory discourses of this study show a change in the conceptual system and developer-user relationship of the open development model. This change is characterized as a movement from hacker ethic and bazaar governance to more professionally and strategically regulated community. 6) Community is simultaneously real and imagined, and can be characterized as a runaway community . Discursive-action can be seen as a specific type of online open source engagement. Hierarchies and structures are created through discursive acts. Key words: Open Source Software, open development model, community, motivation, discourse, rhetoric, developer, user, end-user

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model

A state-of-the-art model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, the climate forecast system (CFS), from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), USA, has been ported onto the PARAM Padma parallel computing system at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC), Bangalore and retrospective predictions for the summer monsoon (June-September) season of 2009 have been generated, using five initial conditions for the atmosphere and one initial condition for the ocean for May 2009. Whereas a large deficit in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June-September) was experienced over the Indian region (with the all-India rainfall deficit by 22% of the average), the ensemble average prediction was for above-average rainfall during the summer monsoon. The retrospective predictions of ISMR with CFS from NCEP for 1981-2008 have been analysed. The retrospective predictions from NCEP for the summer monsoon of 1994 and that from CDAC for 2009 have been compared with the simulations for each of the seasons with the stand-alone atmospheric component of the model, the global forecast system (GFS), and observations. It has been shown that the simulation with GFS for 2009 showed deficit rainfall as observed. The large error in the prediction for the monsoon of 2009 can be attributed to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event seen in the prediction from July onwards, which was not present in the observations. This suggests that the error could be reduced with improvement of the ocean model over the equatorial Indian Ocean.

On Network-Error Correcting Convolutional Codes under the BSC Edge Error Model

Convolutional network-error correcting codes (CNECCs) are known to provide error correcting capability in acyclic instantaneous networks within the network coding paradigm under small field size conditions. In this work, we investigate the performance of CNECCs under the error model of the network where the edges are assumed to be statistically independent binary symmetric channels, each with the same probability of error pe(0 <= p(e) < 0.5). We obtain bounds on the performance of such CNECCs based on a modified generating function (the transfer function) of the CNECCs. For a given network, we derive a mathematical condition on how small p(e) should be so that only single edge network-errors need to be accounted for, thus reducing the complexity of evaluating the probability of error of any CNECC. Simulations indicate that convolutional codes are required to possess different properties to achieve good performance in low p(e) and high p(e) regimes. For the low p(e) regime, convolutional codes with good distance properties show good performance. For the high p(e) regime, convolutional codes that have a good slope ( the minimum normalized cycle weight) are seen to be good. We derive a lower bound on the slope of any rate b/c convolutional code with a certain degree.

WOMM: A Weak Operational Memory Model

Memory models of shared memory concurrent programs define the values a read of a shared memory location is allowed to see. Such memory models are typically weaker than the intuitive sequential consistency semantics to allow efficient execution. In this paper, we present WOMM (abbreviation for Weak Operational Memory Model) that formally unifies two sources of weak behavior in hardware memory models: reordering of instructions and weakly consistent memory. We show that a large number of optimizations are allowed by WOMM. We also show that WOMM is weaker than a number of hardware memory models. Consequently, if a program behaves correctly under WOMM, it will be correct with respect to those hardware memory models. Hence, WOMM can be used as a formally specified abstraction of the hardware memory models. Moreover; unlike most weak memory models, WOMM is described using operational semantics, making it easy to integrate into a model checker for concurrent programs. We further show that WOMM has an important property - it has sequential consistency semantics for datarace-free programs.

Dissociation constants of weak organic acids in protic solvents obtained from their first hyperpolarizabilities in solution

The first hyperpolarizabilities (beta) of some weak aromatic organic acids have been measured in protic solvents by the hyper-Rayleigh scattering (HRS) technique at low concentrations. The measured hyperpolarizability (beta(m)) varies between the two extreme limits: the hyperpolarizability of the acid form (beta(HA)) at the lower side and that of the basic form (beta(A-)) at the higher side. The degree of dissociation (alpha) of the acid in a solvent is related to the measured hyperpolarizability, beta(m), by the following relationship: beta(m)(2)=(1-alpha)beta(HA)(2)+alpha beta(A-)(2). The calculated beta's including solvent effects in terms of an Onsager field do not reproduce the experimentally measured hyperpolarizabilities. Other solvent-induced effects like hydrogen bonding and van der Waals interactions seem to influence the first hyperpolarizability and, thus, indirectly the extent of dissociation of these weak acids in these protic solvents.