Bayesian designs with frequentist and Bayesian error rate considerations

So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.

Estimating equations with nonignorably missing response data

Troxel, Lipsitz, and Brennan (1997, Biometrics 53, 857-869) considered parameter estimation from survey data with nonignorable nonresponse and proposed weighted estimating equations to remove the biases in the complete-case analysis that ignores missing observations. This paper suggests two alternative modifications for unbiased estimation of regression parameters when a binary outcome is potentially observed at successive time points. The weighting approach of Robins, Rotnitzky, and Zhao (1995, Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 106-121) is also modified to obtain unbiased estimating functions. The suggested estimating functions are unbiased only when the missingness probability is correctly specified, and misspecification of the missingness model will result in biases in the estimates. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of different methods when the covariate is binary or normal. For the simulation models used, the relative efficiency of the two new methods to the weighting methods is about 3.0 for the slope parameter and about 2.0 for the intercept parameter when the covariate is continuous and the missingness probability is correctly specified. All methods produce substantial biases in the estimates when the missingness model is misspecified or underspecified. Analysis of data from a medical survey illustrates the use and possible differences of these estimating functions.

Herrana metsässä : Kansatieteellinen tutkimus metsänhoitajuudesta

The aim of the research is to interpret the professional culture of Finnish university-educated foresters in historical perspective. The main material of this research consists of biographical interviews, altogether 226 life stories of Finnish foresters, as well as foresters private photograph collections and articles in forest students' magazines. This study is the first published Ph. D. dissertation of a large oral history project "Forestry Professions in a Changing Society" 1999 2002 collected by The Finnish Forest History Society, the University of Helsinki (Ethnology) and The Finnish Forest Museum Lusto. The forester education was organized in the Evo Forest Institute 1862 1908, at the University of Helsinki since 1908 and additionally at the University of Joensuu since 1982. At first all the vacancies were in the service of the Board of Forestry, but during the 20th century the working opportunities of foresters significantly expanded, even outside the traditional areas of forestry or abroad. At the same time the whole area of Finnish forestry had integrated more versatile values concerning the forests and their use. The male-dominated profession gained its first female members already in the 1920s, and the number of female students rose gradually from the 1970s onwards. In the 1990s almost half of the new forest students were women. The content of both work and education of Finnish forest professionals has faced huge changes during the 19th and 20th centuries. Despite this however, there has been a long-term vision of a firm profession based on joint experiences, shared memories and the common task of foresters in the Finnish forestry. The feeling of togetherness the forester spirit which was created in a tight-knit student group which kept in touch also later as professionals was needed to make the work possible. Through foresters' own attitudes and narratives of themselves, the study is focused on forest professionalism as a cultural process of successive generations of foresters. How have foresters socialized themselves into their profession? How has forest professionalism been maintained? What is the meaning of joint experiences and shared memories in the profession? By studying the manifestations of a culture it is possible to interpret the culture itself. There seems to be an astounding consensus of opinion concerning forest professionalism in the oral, visual and written stories of foresters. Even if all the individuals and some separate groups, such as female foresters and the younger generation of foresters, did not always share the same experiences, the vision of forest professionalism was collectively recognized and often even approved. The shared idea of "a real forest professionalism" is like a model narrative, a point of comparison, which is needed while looking for one s own professional identity.

"Sitte se menee koulus" : Eri kieli- ja kulttuuritaustaisen lapsen suomen kielen taito esiopetuksen päättövaiheessa

A child learns new things, creates social relationships and participates in play with the help of language. How can a child overcome these challenges if the surrounding language is not his mother tongue? The objective of learning a new language in the Pre-school education is an active bilingualism in all fields of the language. Theoretical context of the research rises from bilingualism, learning a language, language skills and evaluating them. Object of the research was to understand language skills of a child from a different linguistic and cultural background in the final stage of Pre-school education and to clarify how learning Finnish was supported during the Pre-school year. Answers to the research issues will be searched with the following questions: 1) What kind of language skills does a child from a different linguistic and cultural backgrounds have at the final stage of Pre-school education?, 1.1) What kind of listening comprehension skills?, 1.2) What kind of speech and vocabulary skills?, 1.3) What kind of structural skills?, 2) What kind of individual differences are there in language skills of children from different linguistic and cultural backgrounds?, and 3) How has a child from a different linguistic and cultural background been supported in learning Finnish during the Pre-school education? The view of language skills in this research is holistic even though it will be analysed in separate fields. The aim of this research is to form an overall impression of Finnish skills of the children participating in the research. Eight Pre-school-aged children with different linguistic and cultural backgrounds and their kindergarten teachers participated in this research. The children had taken part in Finnish activities for about three years. The research material consists of the test series (KITA), which evaluate children’s language skills – and of the questionnaire to the kindergarten teachers. The purpose of the questionnaire was to provide additional information on children’s language skills in Pre-school teaching situations and on supporting Finnish in Pre-school education. This research is qualitative and processing of the material is based on content analysis. According to the kindergarten teachers, the children’s social language skills were sufficient to cope in everyday life but children needed assistance with longer instructions. The same phenomenon could also be seen with the KITA tests – in which long and abstract instructions turned out to be difficult. Individual differences of the children were perceived in productivity skills, which were realised in fluent or influent speech. The children were supported in learning Finnish individually, in small-groups and in the activities of a whole group. ‘Finnish as the second language’ small-groups were the most common form of support in learning the language. The support at understanding activities was emphasized in whole group situations as well as in individual situations while assisting the child’s language skills. Generally, the children’s language skills were in the same level with developing basic language skills. The data of this research help to understand children’s language skills after three years of adopting Finnish. The results can be utilised in planning and evaluation of teaching another language.

Low birth weight in MZ twins discordant for birth weight is associated with shorter telomere length and lower IQ, but not anxiety/depression in later life

Shorter telomere length (TL) has found to be associated with lower birth weight and with lower cognitive ability and psychiatric disorders. However, the direction of causation of these associations and the extent to which they are genetically or environmentally mediated are unclear. Within-pair comparisons of monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins can throw light on these questions. We investigated correlations of within pair differences in telomere length, IQ, and anxiety/depression in an initial sample from Brisbane (242 MZ pairs, 245 DZ same sex (DZSS) pairs) and in replication samples from Amsterdam (514 MZ pairs, 233 DZSS pairs) and Melbourne (19 pairs selected for extreme high or low birth weight difference). Intra-pair differences of birth weight and telomere length were significantly correlated in MZ twins, but not in DZSS twins. Greater intra-pair differences of telomere length were observed in the 10% of MZ twins with the greatest difference in birth weight compared to the bottom 90% in both samples and also in the Melbourne sample. Intra-pair differences of telomere length and IQ, but not of TL and anxiety/depression, were correlated in MZ twins, and to a smaller extent in DZSS twins. Our findings suggest that the same prenatal effects that reduce birth weight also influence telomere length in MZ twins. The association between telomere length and IQ is partly driven by the same prenatal effects that decrease birth weight.

Suomen maankuoren kivilajikoostumuksen tulkinta seismisistä aineistoista

Aim of this study is to investigate composition of the crust in Finland using seismic wide-angle velocity models and laboratory measurements on P- and S-wave velocities of different rock types. The velocities adopted from wide-angle velocity models were compared with laboratory velocities of different rock types corrected for the crustal PT conditions in the study area. The wide-angle velocity models indicate that the P-wave velocity does not only increase step-wise at boundaries of major crustal layers, but there is also gradual increase of velocity within the layers. On the other hand, the laboratory measurements of velocities indicate that no single rock type is able to provide the gradual downward increasing trends. Thus, there must be gradual vertical changes in rock composition. The downward increase of velocities indicates that the composition of the crust becomes gradually more mafic with increasing depth. Even though single rock types cannot simulate the wide-angle model velocities, it can be done with a mixture of rock types. There are a large number of rock type mixtures giving the correct P-wave velocities. Therefore, the inverse solution of rock types and their proportions from velocities is a non-unique problem if only P-wave velocities is available. Amount of the possible rock type mixtures can be limitted using S-wave velocities, reflection seismic results and other geological and geophysical results of the study area. Crustal model FINMIX-2 is presented in this study and it suggest that the crustal velocity profiles can be simulated with rock type mixtures, where the upper crust consists of felsic gneisses and granitic-granodioritic rocks with a minor contribution of quartzite, amphibolite and diabase. In the middle crust the amphibolite proportion increases. The lower crust consists of tonalitic gneiss, mafic garnet granulite, hornblendite, pyroxenite and minor mafic eclogite. This composition model is in agreement with deep crustal kimberlite-hosted xenolith data in eastern Finland and reflectivity of the FIRE (Finnish Reflection Experiment). According to FINMIX-2 model the Moho is deeper and the crustal composition is a more mafic than an average global continental model would suggest. Composition models of southern Finland are quite similar than FINMIX-2 model. However, there are minor differencies between the models, which indicates areal differences of composition. Models of northern Finland shows that the crustal thickness is smaller than southern Finland and composition of the upper crust is different. Density profiles calculated from the lithological models suggest that there is practically no density contrast at Moho in areas of the high-velocity lower crust. This implies that crustal thickness in the central Fennoscandian Shield may have been controlled by the densities of the lower crustal and upper mantle rocks.

Generating product feature hierarchy from product reviews

User generated information such as product reviews have been booming due to the advent of web 2.0. In particular, rich information associated with reviewed products has been buried in such big data. In order to facilitate identifying useful information from product (e.g., cameras) reviews, opinion mining has been proposed and widely used in recent years. In detail, as the most critical step of opinion mining, feature extraction aims to extract significant product features from review texts. However, most existing approaches only find individual features rather than identifying the hierarchical relationships between the product features. In this paper, we propose an approach which finds both features and feature relationships, structured as a feature hierarchy which is referred to as feature taxonomy in the remainder of the paper. Specifically, by making use of frequent patterns and association rules, we construct the feature taxonomy to profile the product at multiple levels instead of single level, which provides more detailed information about the product. The experiment which has been conducted based upon some real world review datasets shows that our proposed method is capable of identifying product features and relations effectively.

CADASIL: molecular studies on the most common hereditary vascular dementing disorder

Cerebral Autosomal Dominant Arteriopathy with Subcortical Infarcts and Leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL) is the most common hereditary vascular dementia. CADASIL is a systemic disease of small and medium-sized arteries although the symptoms are almost exclusively neurological, including migraineous headache, recurrent ischemic episodes, cognitive impairment and, finally, subcortical dementia. CADASIL is caused by over 170 different mutations in the NOTCH3 gene, which encodes a receptor expressed in adults predominantly in the vascular smooth muscle cells. The function of NOTCH3 is not crucial for embryonic development but is needed after birth. NOTCH3 directs postnatal arterial maturation and helps to maintain arterial integrity. It is involved in regulation of vascular tone and in the wound healing of a vascular injury. In addition, NOTCH3 promotes cell survival by inducing expression of anti-apoptotic proteins. NOTCH3 is a membrane-spanning protein with a large extracellular domain (N3ECD) containing 34 epidermal growth factor-like (EGF) repeats and a smaller intracellular domain with six ankyrin repeats. All CADASIL mutations are located in the EGF repeats and the majority of the mutations cause gain or loss of one cysteine residue in one of these repeats leading to an odd number of cysteine residues, which in turn leads to misfolding of N3ECD. This misfolding most likely alters the maturation, targetting, degradation and/or function of the NOTCH3 receptor. CADASIL mutations do not seem to affect the canonical NOTCH3 signalling pathway. The main pathological findings are the accumulation of the NOTCH3 extracellular domain on degenerating vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs), accumulation of granular osmiophilic material (GOM) in the close vicinity of VSMCs as well as fibrosis and thickening of arterial walls. Narrowing of the arterial lumen and local thrombosis cause insufficient blood flow, mainly in small arteries of the cerebral white matter, resulting in tissue damage and lacunar infarcts. CADASIL is suspected in patients with a suggestive family history and clinical picture as well as characteristic white matter alterations in magnetic resonance imaging. A definitive verification of the diagnosis can be achieved by identifying a pathogenic mutation in the NOTCH3 gene or through the detection of GOM by electron microscopy. To understand the pathology underlying CADASIL, we have generated a unique set of cultured vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) lines from umbilical cord, placental, systemic and cerebral arteries of CADASIL patients and controls. Analyses of these VSMCs suggest that mutated NOTCH3 is misfolded, thus causing endoplasmic reticulum stress, activation of the unfolded protein response and increased production of reactive oxygen species. In addition, mutation in NOTCH3 causes alterations in actin cytoskeletal structures and protein expression, increased branching and abnormal node formation. These changes correlate with NOTCH3 expression levels within different VSMCs lines, suggesting that the phenotypic differences of SMCs may affect the vulnerability of the VSMCs and, therefore, the pathogenic impact of mutated NOTCH3 appears to vary in the arteries of different locations. Furthermore, we identified PDGFR- as an immediate downstream target gene of NOTCH3 signalling. Activation of NOTCH induces up-regulation of the PDGFR- expression in control VSMCs, whereas this up-regulation is impaired in CADASIL VSMCs and might thus serve as an alternative molecular mechanism that contributes to CADASIL pathology. In addition, we have established the congruence between NOTCH3 mutations and electron microscopic detection of GOM with a view to constructing a strategy for CADASIL diagnostics. In cases where the genetic analysis is not available or the mutation is difficult to identify, a skin biopsy is an easy-to-perform and highly reliable diagnostic method. Importantly, it is invaluable in setting guidelines concerning how far one should proceed with the genetic analyses.

Meadow plant growth and competition under elevated ozone and carbon dioxide

The main aim of my thesis project was to assess the impact of elevated ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) on the growth, competition and community of meadow plants in northern Europe. The thesis project consisted of three separate O3 and CO2 exposure experiments that were conducted as open-top-chamber (OTC) studies at Jokioinen, SW Finland, and a smaller-scale experiment with different availabilities of resources in greenhouses in Helsinki. The OTC experiments included a competition experiment with two- and three-wise interactions, a mesocosm-scale meadow community with a large number of species, and a pot experiment that assessed intraspecific differences of Centaurea jacea ecotypes. The studied lowland hay meadow proved to be an O3-sensitive biotope, as the O3 concentrations used (40-50 ppb) were moderate, and yet, six out of nine species (Campanula rotundifolia, Centaurea jacea, Fragaria vesca, Ranunculus acris, Trifolium medium, Vicia cracca) showed either significant reductions in biomass or reproductive development, visible O3 injury or any two as a response to elevated O3. The plant species and ecotypes exhibited large intra- and interspecific variation in their response to O3, but O3 and CO2 concentrations did not cause changes in their interspecific competition or in community composition. However, the largest O3-induced growth reductions were seen in the least abundant species (C. rotundifolia and F. vesca), which may indicate O3-induced suppression of weak competitors. The overall effects of CO2 were relatively small and mainly restricted to individual species and several measured variables. Based on the present studies, most of the deleterious effects of tropospheric O3 are not diminished by a moderate increase in CO2 under low N availability, and variation exists between different species and variables. The present study indicates that the growth of several herb species decreases with increasing atmospheric O3 concentrations, and that these changes may pose a threat to the biodiversity of meadows. Ozone-induced reductions in the total community biomass production and N pool are likely to have important consequences for the nutrient cycling of the ecosystem.

Experiments on homogeneous nucleation and physicochemical properties related to atmospheric new particle formation

Aerosol particles play a role in the earth ecosystem and affect human health. A significant pathway of producing aerosol particles in the atmosphere is new particle formation, where condensable vapours nucleate and these newly formed clusters grow by condensation and coagulation. However, this phenomenon is still not fully understood. This thesis brings an insight to new particle formation from an experimental point of view. Laboratory experiments were conducted both on the nucleation process and physicochemical properties related to new particle formation. Nucleation rate measurements are used to test nucleation theories. These theories, in turn, are used to predict nucleation rates in atmospheric conditions. However, the nucleation rate measurements have proven quite difficult to conduct, as different devices can yield nucleation rates with differences of several orders of magnitude for the same substances. In this thesis, work has been done to have a greater understanding in nucleation measurements, especially those conducted in a laminar flow diffusion chamber. Systematic studies of nucleation were also made for future verification of nucleation theories. Surface tensions and densities of substances related to atmospheric new particle formation were measured. Ternary sulphuric acid + ammonia + water is a proposed candidate to participate in atmospheric nucleation. Surface tensions of an alternative candidate to nucleate in boreal forest areas, sulphuric acid + dimethylamine + water, were also measured. Binary compounds, consisting of organic acids + water are possible candidates to participate in the early growth of freshly nucleated particles. All the measured surface tensions and densities were fitted with equations, thermodynamically consistent if possible, to be easily applied to atmospheric model calculations of nucleation and subsequent evolution of particle size.

Finnish and Austrian Wood Markets in a Changing Environment

At present the operating environment of sawmills in Europe is changing and there are uncertainties related in raw material supply in many countries. The changes in the operating environment of roundwood markets and the effects followed by these changes have brought up several interesting issues from the viewpoint of research. Lately new factors have been influencing the roundwood markets, such as increasing interest towards wood-based energy and implementation of new energy policies as well as changes in wood trade flows that affect the domestic markets in many countries. This Master’s thesis studies the adaptation ability of Finnish roundwood markets in a changing operating environment, aiming to produce an up-to-date analysis considering new development trends. The study concentrates on the roundwood markets from the viewpoint of sawmill industry since the industry is dependent on the functioning of the markets and sawmills are highly affected by the changes on the roundwood markets. To facilitate international comparison, the study is implemented by comparing Finnish and Austrian roundwood markets and analysing changes happening in the two countries. Finland and Austria share rather similar characteristics in the roundwood market structures, forest resources and forest ownership as well as production of roundwood and sawnwood. In addition they both are big exporters of forest industry products. In this study changes in the operating environment of sawmill industry both in Finland as well as in Austria are compared to each other aiming to recognise the main similarities and differences between the countries. In addition both development possibilities as well as challenges followed by the changes are discussed. The aim of the study is to define the main challenges and possibilities confronted by the actors on the markets and also to find new perspectives to approach these. The study is implemented as a qualitative study. The theoretical framework of the study describes the operating environment of wood markets from the viewpoint of the sawmill industry and represents the effects of supply and demand on the wood markets. The primary research material of the study was gathered by interviewing high level experts of forestry and sawmill industry in both Finland and Austria. The aim was to receive as extensive country specific viewpoint from the markets as possible, hence interviewees represented different parties of the markets. After creating country-specific profiles based on the theoretical framework a cross-country comparison was implemented. As a consequence the main similarities and differences in the operating environment and on the roundwood markets of Finland and Austria were recognized. In addition the main challenges and possibilites were identified. The results of the study offer a wide analysis regarding the main similarities and differences of the wood markets of Finland and Austria and their operating environments as well as concerning challenges and possibilities faced on the markets.

Valittujen makrolidien ominaisuudet ja niiden vaikutukset fermentoinnin jälkeiseen jatkokäsittelyyn

Työn kirjallisessa osuudessa tarkasteltiin makrolideja yleisellä tasolla keskittyen kahden makrolidin ominaisuuksiin molekyylitasolla. Näiden tautomerisoitumista käsitellään tuoden esiin sekä yhdisteiden rakenteelliset yhteneväisyydet ja eroavaisuudet että niiden vaikutukset yhdisteiden vaikutusmekanismiin ja metaboliaan. Kirjallisessa osuudessa perehdyttiin myös makrolidien biosynteesiin ja tuotantoprosessiin keskittyen downstream-prosessointiin ja erityisesti biosynteesistä peräisin oleviin epäpuhtauksiin. Lisäksi kirjallisessa osuudessa käsiteltiin argentaatiokromatografian perusteita. Kokeellisessa osuudessa yhdelle makrolidille kehitettiin argentaatiokromatografiaan perustuva puhdistusmenetelmä. Perinteisillä kromatografisilla menetelmillä yhdistettä ei voida puhdistaa kaikista sen epäpuhtauksista. Makrolidin puhtaus argentaatiokromatografian jälkeen oli 98,6 %. Lisäksi kehitettiin uusi kiteytysmenetlmä, jossa yhdiste kiteytettiin anhydridina tavanomaisen monohydraattimuodon sijasta. Makrolidin analysointiin kehitettiin HPLC-menetelmä, joka validoitiin ICH:n ohjeiden mukaisesti. Yhditeen tautomeerimuodot ja siinä esiintyvät epäpuhtaudet tutkittiin käyttäen LC/MS-analyysia. Yhden epäpuhtauden rakenne varmistettiin eristämisen jälkeen NMR:n avulla. Saatavilla olevien tietojen mukaan yhdisteen tulkittuja NMRspektrejä ei ole julkaistu. Lisäksi aiemmin tuntematon epäpuhtaus identifioitiin perustuen retentioaikaan ja MS-analyysiin.

Overview on different sterilization techniques for baby food

The nutritional quality of the product as well as other quality attributes like microbiological and sensory quality are essential factors in baby food industry, and therefore different alternative sterilizing methods for conventional heating processes are of great interest in this food sector. This report gives an overview on different sterilization techniques for baby food. The report is a part of the work done in work package 3 ”QACCP Analysis Processing: Quality – driven distribution and processing chain analysis“ in the Core Organic ERANET project called Quality analysis of critical control points within the whole food chain and their impact on food quality, safety and health (QACCP). The overall objective of the project is to optimise organic production and processing in order to improve food safety as well as nutritional quality and increase health promoting aspects in consumer products. The approach will be a chain analysis approach which addresses the link between farm and fork and backwards from fork to farm. The objective is to improve product related quality management in farming (towards testing food authenticity) and processing (towards food authenticity and sustainable processes. The articles in this volume do not necessarily reflect the Core Organic ERANET’s views and in no way anticipate the Core Organic ERANET’s future policy in this area. The contents of the articles in this volume are the sole responsibility of the authors. The information contained here in, including any expression of opinion and any projection or forecast, has been obtained from sources believed by the authors to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The information is supplied without obligation and on the understanding that any person who acts upon it or otherwise changes his/her position in reliance thereon does so entirely at his/her own risk. The writers gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the Core Organic Funding Body: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Finland, Swiss Federal Office for Agriculture, Switzerland and Federal Ministry of Consumer Protection, Food and Agriculture, Germany.

Zur lexikographischen Darstellung der Adjektivsyntax in neueren einsprachigen Wörtbüchern des Deutschen

The main objects of the investigation were the syntactic functions of adjectives. The reason for the interest in these functions are the different modes of use, in which an adjective can occur. All together an adjective can take three different modes of use: attributive (e. g. a fast car), predicative (e. g. the car is fast) and adverbial (e. g. the car drives fast). Since an adjective cannot always take every function, some dictionaries (esp. learner s dictionaries) deliver information within the lexical entry about any restrictions. The purpose of the research consisted of a comparison in relation to the lexical entries of adjectives, which were investigated within four selected monolingual German-speaking dictionaries. The comparison of the syntactical data of adjectives were done to work out the differences and the common characteristics of the lexical entries concerning the different modes of use and to analyse respective to assess them. In the foreground, however, were the differences of the syntactical information. Concerning those differences it had to be worked out, which entry is the grammatically right one respective if one entry is in fact wrong. To find that out an empirical analysis was needed, which based on the question in which way an adjective is used within a context as far as there are no conforming data within the dictionaries. The delivery of the correctness and the homogeneity of lexical entries of German-speaking dictionaries are very important to support people who are learning the German language and to ensure the user friendliness of dictionaries. Throughout the investigations it became clear that in almost half of the cases (over 40 %) syntactical information of adjectives differ from each other within the dictionaries. These differences make it for non-native speakers of course very difficult to understand the correct usage of an adjective. Thus the main aim of the doctoral thesis was it to deliver and to demonstrate the clear syntactical usage of a certain amount of adjectives.

Microfinance, Efficiency and Agricultural Production in Bangladesh

The objectives of this study were to make a detailed and systematic empirical analysis of microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers in Bangladesh and also examine how efficiency measures are influenced by the access to agricultural microfinance. In the empirical analysis, this study used both parametric and non-parametric frontier approaches to investigate differences in efficiency estimates between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers. This thesis, based on five articles, applied data obtained from a survey of 360 farm households from north-central and north-western regions in Bangladesh. The methods used in this investigation involve stochastic frontier (SFA) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) in addition to sample selectivity and limited dependent variable models. In article I, technical efficiency (TE) estimation and identification of its determinants were performed by applying an extended Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function. The results show that farm households had a mean TE of 83% with lower TE scores for the non-borrowers of agricultural microfinance. Addressing institutional policies regarding the consolidation of individual plots into farm units, ensuring access to microfinance, extension education for the farmers with longer farming experience are suggested to improve the TE of the farmers. In article II, the objective was to assess the effects of access to microfinance on household production and cost efficiency (CE) and to determine the efficiency differences between the microfinance participating and non-participating farms. In addition, a non-discretionary DEA model was applied to capture directly the influence of microfinance on farm households production and CE. The results suggested that under both pooled DEA models and non-discretionary DEA models, farmers with access to microfinance were significantly more efficient than their non-borrowing counterparts. Results also revealed that land fragmentation, family size, household wealth, on farm-training and off farm income share are the main determinants of inefficiency after effectively correcting for sample selection bias. In article III, the TE of traditional variety (TV) and high-yielding-variety (HYV) rice producers were estimated in addition to investigating the determinants of adoption rate of HYV rice. Furthermore, the role of TE as a potential determinant to explain the differences of adoption rate of HYV rice among the farmers was assessed. The results indicated that in spite of its much higher yield potential, HYV rice production was associated with lower TE and had a greater variability in yield. It was also found that TE had a significant positive influence on the adoption rates of HYV rice. In article IV, we estimated profit efficiency (PE) and profit-loss between microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers by a sample selection framework, which provided a general framework for testing and taking into account the sample selection in the stochastic (profit) frontier function analysis. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, the mean PE of the microfinance borrowers and non-borrowers were estimated at 68% and 52% respectively. This suggested that a considerable share of profits were lost due to profit inefficiencies in rice production. The results also demonstrated that access to microfinance contributes significantly to increasing PE and reducing profit-loss per hectare land. In article V, the effects of credit constraints on TE, allocative efficiency (AE) and CE were assessed while adequately controlling for sample selection bias. The confidence intervals were determined by the bootstrap method for both samples. The results indicated that differences in average efficiency scores of credit constrained and unconstrained farms were not statistically significant although the average efficiencies tended to be higher in the group of unconstrained farms. After effectively correcting for selectivity bias, household experience, number of dependents, off-farm income, farm size, access to on farm training and yearly savings were found to be the main determinants of inefficiencies. In general, the results of the study revealed the existence substantial technical, allocative, economic inefficiencies and also considerable profit inefficiencies. The results of the study suggested the need to streamline agricultural microfinance by the microfinance institutions (MFIs), donor agencies and government at all tiers. Moreover, formulating policies that ensure greater access to agricultural microfinance to the smallholder farmers on a sustainable basis in the study areas to enhance productivity and efficiency has been recommended. Key Words: Technical, allocative, economic efficiency, DEA, Non-discretionary DEA, selection bias, bootstrapping, microfinance, Bangladesh.