Value at Risk in measuring market risk: Historical simulation

In this study the theoretical part was created to make comparison between different Value at Risk models. Based on that comparison one model was chosen to the empirical part which concentrated to find out whether the model is accurate to measure market risk. The purpose of this study was to test if Volatility-weighted Historical Simulation is accurate in measuring market risk and what improvements does it bring to market risk measurement compared to traditional Historical Simulation. Volatility-weighted method by Hull and White (1998) was chosen In order to improve the traditional methods capability to measure market risk. In this study we found out that result based on Historical Simulation are dependent on chosen time period, confidence level and how samples are weighted. The findings of this study are that we cannot say that the chosen method is fully reliable in measuring market risk because back testing results are changing during the time period of this study.

User-driven community-based service development

This final thesis project was carried out in the Industrial Management department of University of Applied Sciences Stadia for Forum Virium Helsinki. The purpose of this study was to answer to the question of how companies can use online customer community of co-creation in service development and what is the value gained from it. The paper combines a range of recently published theoretical works and ongoing customer community case development. The study aims to provide new information and action approaches to new service developers that may increase the success of the community building process. The paper also outlines the benefits of the use of online customer community and offers practical suggestions for maximizing the value gained from the community in service development projects. The concepts and suggestions introduced in the study appear to have notable new possibilities to the service development process but they have to be further tested empirically. This paper describes the online consumer community of co-creation to an important organizational process of innovation management suggesting that it possesses a great value to business. Online customer communities offer a potential of improving the success of new services or products enabling early, penetrable market entry and creating sustainable competitive advantage.

Internet-Based Brief Intervention to Prevent Unhealthy Alcohol Use among Young Men: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Alcohol use is one of the leading modifiable morbidity and mortality risk factors among young adults. 2 parallel-group randomized controlled trial with follow-up at 1 and 6 months. Internet based study in a general population sample of young men with low-risk drinking, recruited between June 2012 and February 2013. Intervention: Internet-based brief alcohol primary prevention intervention (IBI). The IBI aims at preventing an increase in alcohol use: it consists of normative feedback, feedback on consequences, calorific value alcohol, computed blood alcohol concentration, indication that the reported alcohol use is associated with no or limited risks for health. Intervention group participants received the IBI. Control group (CG) participants completed only an assessment. Alcohol use (number of drinks per week), binge drinking prevalence. Analyses were conducted in 2014-2015. Of 4365 men invited to participate, 1633 did so; 896 reported low-risk drinking and were randomized (IBI: n = 451; CG: n = 445). At baseline, 1 and 6 months, the mean (SD) number of drinks/week was 2.4(2.2), 2.3(2.6), 2.5(3.0) for IBI, and 2.4(2.3), 2.8(3.7), 2.7(3.9) for CG. Binge drinking, absent at baseline, was reported by 14.4% (IBI) and 19.0% (CG) at 1 month and by 13.3% (IBI) and 13.0% (CG) at 6 months. At 1 month, beneficial intervention effects were observed on the number of drinks/week (p = 0.05). No significant differences were observed at 6 months. We found protective short term effects of a primary prevention IBI. Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN55991918.

Influence of MCHR2 and MCHR2-AS1 Genetic Polymorphisms on Body Mass Index in Psychiatric Patients and In Population-Based Subjects with Present or Past Atypical Depression.

Obesity development during psychotropic treatments represents a major health issue in psychiatry. Melanin-concentrating hormone receptor 2 (MCHR2) is a central receptor involved in energy homeostasis. MCHR2 shares its promoter region with MCHR2-AS1, a long antisense non-coding RNA. The aim of this study was to determine whether tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) of MCHR2 and MCHR2-AS1 are associated with the body mass index (BMI) in the psychiatric and in the general population. The influence of MCHR2 and MCHR2-AS1 tSNPs on BMI was firstly investigated in a discovery psychiatric sample (n1 = 474). Positive results were tested for replication in two other psychiatric samples (n2 = 164, n3 = 178) and in two population-based samples (CoLaus, n4 = 5409; GIANT, n5 = 113809). In the discovery sample, TT carriers of rs7754794C>T had 1.08 kg/m2 (p = 0.04) lower BMI as compared to C-allele carriers. This observation was replicated in an independent psychiatric sample (-2.18 kg/m2; p = 0.009). The association of rs7754794C>T and BMI seemed stronger in subjects younger than 45 years (median of age). In the population-based sample, a moderate association was observed (-0.17 kg/m2; p = 0.02) among younger individuals (<45y). Interestingly, this association was totally driven by patients meeting lifetime criteria for atypical depression, i.e. major depressive episodes characterized by symptoms such as an increased appetite. Indeed, patients with atypical depression carrying rs7754794-TT had 1.17 kg/m2 (p = 0.04) lower BMI values as compared to C-allele carriers, the effect being stronger in younger individuals (-2.50 kg/m2; p = 0.03; interaction between rs7754794 and age: p-value = 0.08). This study provides new insights on the possible influence of MCHR2 and/or MCHR2-AS1 on obesity in psychiatric patients and on the pathophysiology of atypical depression.

Implementing Role Based Access Control into the Enterprise Environment to Support Business and IT Functions

The thesis studies role based access control and its suitability in the enterprise environment. The aim is to research how extensively role based access control can be implemented in the case organization and how it support organization’s business and IT functions. This study points out the enterprise’s needs for access control, factors of access control in the enterprise environment and requirements for implementation and the benefits and challenges it brings along. To find the scope how extensively role based access control can be implemented into the case organization, firstly is examined the actual state of access control. Secondly is defined a rudimentary desired state (how things should be) and thirdly completed it by using the results of the implementation of role based access control application. The study results the role model for case organization unit, and the building blocks and the framework for the organization wide implementation. Ultimate value for organization is delivered by facilitating the normal operations of the organization whilst protecting its information assets.

Täydellinen esimies - case Lomaliitto

Tämän tutkimuksen päätarkoituksena oli löytää esimiestyön kehitettävät osa-alueet Lomaliiton valituissa toimipaikoissa alaisen näkökulmasta. Osa päätarkoitusta oli myös tarjota Lomaliitolle työkalut esimiestyön kehittämistarpeiden tunnistamiseen tulevaisuudessa. Lisäksi tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli osallistua akateemiseen keskusteluun, jossa pyritään selvittämään täydellistä johtamista. Tutkimuksen päätarkoitukseen päästiin erilaisten tavoitteiden kautta käyttäen apuna sähköistä kyselyä, jolla saatiin sekä kvantitatiivista että kvalitatiivista aineistoa. Ensimmäinen tavoite oli selvittää mitä esimiehen ominaisuuksia alaiset arvostavat. Toinen tavoite oli selvittää mikä on alaisten mielestä hyvää ja huonoa esimiesten johtamisessa. Kolmas tavoite oli selvittää eroavatko alaisten arviot esimiestensä johtamisesta osastoittain, hierarkiatasoittain, sukupuolittain ja ikäluokittain tarkasteltuna. Viimeisenä tavoitteena oli selvittää eroavatko esimiesten ja alaisten arviot esimiesten johtamisesta toisistaan. Tutkimuksessa selvisi esimiehen tärkeimmät ominaisuudet, joita alaiset arvostavat. Keskimäärin alaiset arvioivat johtamisen tyydyttäväksi Lomaliiton tutkimukseen valituissa toimipaikoissa. Toimipaikkojen välillä esimiesten alaisiltaan saamat arviot ja kehitettävät ominaisuudet vaihtelivat jonkin verran. Se millaiseksi johtaminen arvioitiin, vaihteli jonkin verran myös osastoittain. Sen sijaan esimiesten saamat arviot alaisen hierarkiatason, sukupuolen ja ikäryhmän mukaan eivät kuitenkaan eronneet kovinkaan paljoa. Merkittävä ero löytyi kuitenkin vertaamalla esimiesten arvioita näiden alaisten arvioihin heidän johtamisestaan.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of antibodies against chimeric fibrin/filaggrin citrullinated synthetic peptides in rheumatoid arthritis

Introduction: Evidence suggests that citrullinated fibrin(ogen) may be a potential in vivo target of anticitrullinated protein/peptide antibodies (ACPA) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We compared the diagnostic yield of three enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests by using chimeric fibrin/filaggrin citrullinated synthetic peptides (CFFCP1, CFFCP2, CFFCP3) with a commercial CCP2-based test in RA and analyzed their prognostic values in early RA. Methods: Samples from 307 blood donors and patients with RA (322), psoriatic arthritis (133), systemic lupus erythematosus (119), and hepatitis C infection (84) were assayed by using CFFCP- and CCP2-based tests. Autoantibodies also were analyzed at baseline and during a 2-year follow-up in 98 early RA patients to determine their prognostic value. Results: With cutoffs giving 98% specificity for RA versus blood donors, the sensitivity was 72.1% for CFFCP1, 78.0% for CFFCP2, 71.4% for CFFCP3, and 73.9% for CCP2, with positive predictive values greater than 97% in all cases. CFFCP sensitivity in RA increased to 80.4% without losing specificity when positivity was considered as any positive anti-CFFCP status. Specificity of the three CFFCP tests versus other rheumatic populations was high (> 90%) and similar to those for the CCP2. In early RA, CFFCP1 best identified patients with a poor radiographic outcome. Radiographic progression was faster in the small subgroup of CCP2-negative and CFFCP1-positive patients than in those negative for both autoantibodies. CFFCP antibodies decreased after 1 year, but without any correlation with changes in disease activity. Conclusions: CFFCP-based assays are highly sensitive and specific for RA. Early RA patients with anti-CFFCP1 antibodies, including CCP2-negative patients, show greater radiographic progression.

Customer driven business model – connecting customer value to firm resources in ICT value networks

The objective of this thesis is to provide a business model framework that connects customer value to firm resources and explains the change logic of the business model. Strategic supply management and especially dynamic value network management as its scope, the dissertation is based on basic economic theories, transaction cost economics and the resource-based view. The main research question is how the changing customer values should be taken into account when planning business in a networked environment. The main question is divided into questions that form the basic research problems for the separate case studies presented in the five Publications. This research adopts the case study strategy, and the constructive research approach within it. The material consists of data from several Delphi panels and expert workshops, software pilot documents, company financial statements and information on investor relations on the companies’ web sites. The cases used in this study are a mobile multi-player game value network, smart phone and “Skype mobile” services, the business models of AOL, eBay, Google, Amazon and a telecom operator, a virtual city portal business system and a multi-play offering. The main contribution of this dissertation is bridging the gap between firm resources and customer value. This has been done by theorizing the business model concept and connecting it to both the resource-based view and customer value. This thesis contributes to the resource-based view, which deals with customer value and firm resources needed to deliver the value but has a gap in explaining how the customer value changes should be connected to the changes in key resources. This dissertation also provides tools and processes for analyzing the customer value preferences of ICT services, constructing and analyzing business models and business concept innovation and conducting resource analysis.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.

Areas of high conservation value in Georgia: present and future threats by invasive alien plants

Georgia is known for its extraordinary rich biodiversity of plants, which may now be threatened due to the spread of invasive alien plants (IAP). We aimed to identify (i) the most prominent IAP out of 9 selected potentially invasive and harmful IAP IAP by predicting thetheir distribution of 9 selected IAP under current and future climate conditions in Georgia as well as in its 43 Protected Areas, as a proxy for areas of high conservation value and (ii) the Protected Areas most at risk due to these IAP. We used species distribution models based on 6 climate variables and then filtered the obtained distributions based on maps of soil and vegetation types, and on recorded occurrences, resulting into the predicted ecological distribution of the 9 IAP's at a resolution of 1km2. We foundOur habitat suitability analysis showed that Ambrosia artemisiifolia, (24% and 40%) Robinia pseudoacaia (14% and 19%) and Ailanthus altissima (9% and 11%) have the largest potential distribution are the most abundant (predicted % area covered)d) IAP, with Ailanthus altissima the potentially most increasing one over the next fifty years (from 9% to 13% and from 11% to 25%), for Georgia and the Protected Areas, respectively. Furthermore, our results show indicate two areas in Georgia that are under specifically high threat, i.e. the area around Tbilisi and an area in the western part of Georgia (Adjara), both at lower altitudes. Our procedure to identify areas of high conservation value most at risk by IAP has been applied for the first time. It will help national authorities in prioritizing their measures to protect Georgia's outstanding biodiversity from the negative impact of IAP.

Internet-Based Brief Intervention to Prevent Unhealthy Alcohol Use among Young Men: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol use is one of the leading modifiable morbidity and mortality risk factors among young adults. STUDY DESIGN: 2 parallel-group randomized controlled trial with follow-up at 1 and 6 months. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Internet based study in a general population sample of young men with low-risk drinking, recruited between June 2012 and February 2013. INTERVENTION: Internet-based brief alcohol primary prevention intervention (IBI). The IBI aims at preventing an increase in alcohol use: it consists of normative feedback, feedback on consequences, calorific value alcohol, computed blood alcohol concentration, indication that the reported alcohol use is associated with no or limited risks for health. INTERVENTION group participants received the IBI. Control group (CG) participants completed only an assessment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Alcohol use (number of drinks per week), binge drinking prevalence. Analyses were conducted in 2014-2015. RESULTS: Of 4365 men invited to participate, 1633 did so; 896 reported low-risk drinking and were randomized (IBI: n = 451; CG: n = 445). At baseline, 1 and 6 months, the mean (SD) number of drinks/week was 2.4(2.2), 2.3(2.6), 2.5(3.0) for IBI, and 2.4(2.3), 2.8(3.7), 2.7(3.9) for CG. Binge drinking, absent at baseline, was reported by 14.4% (IBI) and 19.0% (CG) at 1 month and by 13.3% (IBI) and 13.0% (CG) at 6 months. At 1 month, beneficial intervention effects were observed on the number of drinks/week (p = 0.05). No significant differences were observed at 6 months. CONCLUSION: We found protective short term effects of a primary prevention IBI. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN55991918.

Duration of untreated psychosis: Impact of the definition of treatment onset on its predictive value over three years of treatment.

BACKGROUND: While reduction of DUP (Duration of Untreated Psychosis) is a key goal in early intervention strategies, the predictive value of DUP on outcome has been questioned. We planned this study in order to explore the impact of three different definition of "treatment initiation" on the predictive value of DUP on outcome in an early psychosis sample. METHODS: 221 early psychosis patients aged 18-35 were followed-up prospectively over 36 months. DUP was measured using three definitions for treatment onset: Initiation of antipsychotic medication (DUP1); engagement in a specialized programme (DUP2) and combination of engagement in a specialized programme and adherence to medication (DUP3). RESULTS: 10% of patients never reached criteria for DUP3 and therefore were never adequately treated over the 36-month period of care. While DUP1 and DUP2 had a limited predictive value on outcome, DUP3, based on a more restrictive definition for treatment onset, was a better predictor of positive and negative symptoms, as well as functional outcome at 12, 24 and 36 months. Globally, DUP3 explained 2 to 5 times more of the variance than DUP1 and DUP2, with effect sizes falling in the medium range according to Cohen. CONCLUSIONS: The limited predictive value of DUP on outcome in previous studies may be linked to problems of definitions that do not take adherence to treatment into account. While they need replication, our results suggest effort to reduce DUP should continue and aim both at early detection and development of engagement strategies.

Prognostic value of baseline total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV0) measured on FDG-PET/CT in patients with peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL).

BACKGROUND: Most peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL) patients have a poor outcome and the identification of prognostic factors at diagnosis is needed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The prognostic impact of total metabolic tumor volume (TMTV0), measured on baseline [(18)F]2-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography, was evaluated in a retrospective study including 108 PTCL patients (27 PTCL not otherwise specified, 43 angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphomas and 38 anaplastic large-cell lymphomas). All received anthracycline-based chemotherapy. TMTV0 was computed with the 41% maximum standardized uptake value threshold method and an optimal cut-off point for binary outcomes was determined and compared with others prognostic factors. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 23 months, 2-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 49% and 2-year overall survival (OS) was 67%. High TMTV0 was significantly associated with a worse prognosis. At 2 years, PFS was 26% in patients with a high TMTV0 (>230 cm(3), n = 53) versus 71% for those with a low TMTV0, [P < 0.0001, hazard ratio (HR) = 4], whereas OS was 50% versus 80%, respectively, (P = 0.0005, HR = 3.1). In multivariate analysis, TMTV0 was the only significant independent parameter for both PFS and OS. TMTV0, combined with PIT, discriminated even better than TMTV0 alone, patients with an adverse outcome (TMTV0 >230 cm(3) and PIT >1, n = 33,) from those with good prognosis (TMTV0 ≤230 cm(3) and PIT ≤1, n = 40): 19% versus 73% 2-year PFS (P < 0.0001) and 43% versus 81% 2-year OS, respectively (P = 0.0002). Thirty-one patients (other TMTV0-PIT combinations) had an intermediate outcome, 50% 2-year PFS and 68% 2-year OS. CONCLUSION: TMTV0 appears as an independent predictor of PTCL outcome. Combined with PIT, it could identify different risk categories at diagnosis and warrants further validation as a prognostic marker.

Condition-dependence, pleiotropy and the handicap principle of sexual selection in melanin-based colouration.

The signalling function of melanin-based colouration is debated. Sexual selection theory states that ornaments should be costly to produce, maintain, wear or display to signal quality honestly to potential mates or competitors. An increasing number of studies supports the hypothesis that the degree of melanism covaries with aspects of body condition (e.g. body mass or immunity), which has contributed to change the initial perception that melanin-based colour ornaments entail no costs. Indeed, the expression of many (but not all) melanin-based colour traits is weakly sensitive to the environment but strongly heritable suggesting that these colour traits are relatively cheap to produce and maintain, thus raising the question of how such colour traits could signal quality honestly. Here I review the production, maintenance and wearing/displaying costs that can generate a correlation between melanin-based colouration and body condition, and consider other evolutionary mechanisms that can also lead to covariation between colour and body condition. Because genes controlling melanic traits can affect numerous phenotypic traits, pleiotropy could also explain a linkage between body condition and colouration. Pleiotropy may result in differently coloured individuals signalling different aspects of quality that are maintained by frequency-dependent selection or local adaptation. Colouration may therefore not signal absolute quality to potential mates or competitors (e.g. dark males may not achieve a higher fitness than pale males); otherwise genetic variation would be rapidly depleted by directional selection. As a consequence, selection on heritable melanin-based colouration may not always be directional, but mate choice may be conditional to environmental conditions (i.e. context-dependent sexual selection). Despite the interest of evolutionary biologists in the adaptive value of melanin-based colouration, its actual role in sexual selection is still poorly understood.

Factors influencing the evolution of e-commerce : an empirical analysis in a developed market economy

Peer-reviewed