A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Hemodynamic effects of PEEP in a porcine model of HCl-induced mild acute lung injury

Positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) and sustained inspiratory insufflations (SI) during acute lung injury (ALI) are suggested to improve oxygenation and respiratory mechanics. We aimed to investigate the hemodynamic effects of PEEP with and without alveolar recruiting maneuver in a mild ALI model induced by inhalation of hydrochloric acid. Thirty-two pigs were randomly allocated into four groups (Control-PEEP, Control-SI, ALI-PEEP and ALI-SI). ALI was induced by intratracheal instillation of hydrochloric acid. PEEP values were progressively increased and decreased from 5, 10, 15 and 20 cmH(2)O in all groups. Three SIs maneuvers of 30 cmH(2)O for 20 s were applied to the assignable groups between each PEEP level. Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE), global hemodynamics, oxygenation indexes and gastric tonometry were measured 5 min after the maneuvers had been concluded and at each established value of PEEP (5, 10, 15 and 20 cmH(2)O). The cardiac index, ejection fraction and end-diastolic volume of right ventricle were significantly (P < 0.001) decreased with PEEP in both Control and ALI groups. Left ventricle echocardiography showed a significant decrease in end-diastolic volume at 20 cmH(2)O of PEEP (P < 0.001). SIs did not exert any significant hemodynamic effects either early (after 5 min) or late (after 3 h). In a mild ALI model induced by inhalation of hydrochloric acid, significant hemodynamic impairment characterized by cardiac function deterioration occurred during PEEP increment, but SI, probably due to low applied values (30 cmH(2)O), did not exert further negative hemodynamic effects. PEEP should be used cautiously in ALI caused by acid gastric content inhalation.

Ovarian function in Nelore (Bos taurus indicus) cows after post-ovulation hormonal treatments

Maternal recognition of pregnancy in the cow requires successful signaling by the conceptus to block luteolysis. Conceptus Growth and function depend on an optimal uterine environment, regulated by luteal progesterone. The objective of this study was to test strategies to optimize luteal function, as well as prevent a dominant follicle from initiating luteolysis. Nelore (Bos taurus indicus) beef cows (n = 40) were submitted to a GnRH/PGF(2 alpha)/GnRH protocol. Cows that ovulated from a dominant ovarian follicle (ovulation = Day 0) were allocated to receive: no additional treatment (Gc; n = 7); 3000 IU of hCG on Day 5 (G(hCG); n = 5); 5 mg of estradiol-17 beta on Day 12 (G(E2); n = 6); or 3000 IU of hCG on Day 5 and 5 mg of estradiol-17 beta on Day 12 (G(hCG/E2); n = 5). Ultrasonographic imaging of the ovaries, assessment of plasma progesterone concentration, and detection of estrus were done daily from Day 5 to the day of subsequent ovulation. Treatment with hCG induced an accessory CL, increased CL volume, and plasma progesterone concentration throughout the luteal phase (P < 0.01). Estradiol-17 beta induced atresia and recruitment of a new wave of follicular growth; it eliminated a potentially estrogen-active, growing ovarian follicle within the critical period for maternal recognition of pregnancy, but it also hastened luteolysis (Days 16 or 17 vs. Days 18 or 19 in non-treated cows). In conclusion, the approaches tested enhanced luteal function (hCG) and altered ovarian follicular dynamics (estradiol-17 beta), but were unable to extend the life-span of the CL in Nelore cows. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hepatic function evolution in dogs anesthetized with Zolazepam/Tiletamine

The hepatic effects of the anesthetic association zolazepam/tiletamine were investigated in dogs by analyzing the serum concentration of hepatic enzymes. Ten healthy dogs were divided into two groups of five, group I (GI) and group II (GII). The animals of GI received a single dose of 6,6 mg/kg of zolazepam/tiletamine, by intramuscular (IM) injection. GII dogs received 6,6 mg/kg of zolazepam/tiletamine by the IM route; after a period of 50 - 80 minutes the animals received two additional doses (3,3 mg/kg) by intravenous administration[SAH1]. The hepatic function were analyzed by monitoring the serum concentrations of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT). Four blood samples were collected in different moments during the analyses: M0, before the first application of the drug; and M1 to M4. M1 through M3 was collected with intervals of 20 minutes before M0, while M4 was obtained 24 hours after M1. The normality of the obtained results was analyzed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test; while the Tukey`s test compared the means, using a level of significance of 5% for both statistical analyses. The mean values of all enzymes evaluated were within normal limits for both experimental groups, without any significant statistical alteration being observed between and within these groups. These results demonstrated that the association of zolazepam/tiletamine at the dosage of 6.6 mg/kg, followed by two applications additional of 3.3 mg/kg resulted in elevation of the evaluated hepatic enzymes without exceeding the physiologic values. Additionally, a single application of 6.6 mg/kg of zolazepam/tiletamine by the intramuscular route resulted in lower values when compared to three applications.

Poor ovarian response in patients younger than 35 years: Is it also a qualitative decline in ovarian function?

Objective. To investigate whether poor response to controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) is due to a qualitative decline in ovarian function. Methods. This retrospective cohort study included 436 patients younger than 35-years old, undergoing COS for intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). Patients with four or fewer MII oocytes after COS (poor-responder group, PR, n = 52) were age-matched with normoresponder patients (NR, n = 364). Results. Although similar duration of stimulation (10.5 +/- 0.4 and 9.3 +/- 0.8 days; p = 0.1358), increased doses of gonadotrophins (2510 +/- 865 and 2253 +/- 572 IU; p = 0.0061) were used in the PR. The results show a increased chance of cycle ending of PR (PR: 26.9% and NR: 3.1%; p < 0.0001). Although the lower total number of oocytes retrieved (2.4 +/- 1.4 and 16.2 +/- 9.3; p < 0.0001), equal rate of fertilization (70.2% and 72.0%, p = 0.1190) and high quality embryos were obtained (50.0% and 45.2%; p = 0.4895), resulting in similar implantation (14.5% and 19.7%; p = 0.2246) and abortion (10.0% and 15.4%; p = 1.00) rates, respectively. A trend towards increased pregnancy rate per embryo transfer in NR group was noted (PR: 26.3% and NR: 42.2%; p = 0.0818). Conclusions. Low ovarian response could be associated mainly with a quantitative rather than a qualitative decline in ovarian function. Therefore, even if the ovarian response to stimulation is low, patients aged <= 35 years should process to oocyte retrieval.

Recreational fishing: Its expansion, its economic value and aquaculture's role in sustaining it

Economic growth usually leads to a substantial increase in the demand for recreational fishing, and China is likely to follow this trend. Factors influencing this expansion in demand are identified. Recreational fishing is of major economic importance in higher income countries and indicators of its economic significance are given. Growing demand for recreational fishing results in intensified involvement of recreational fishers in conflicts about resource use. With increasing demand for recreational fishing, recreational fishers face growing competition with one another for limited fish stocks and with commercial fishers. Their concerns for environmental threats to fish stocks also intensify. Furthermore, some strategies of recreational fishers are increasingly criticised by conservationists. Governments, therefore, are put under pressure to adopt policies to address these conflicts. Some of the policy measures adopted to help sustain the fisheries and reduce conflict are outlined. These include limits on the catch and exclusive zones for recreational fishing. However, wild stocks of fish are likely to remain under mounting harvesting and other pressures. Therefore, we need to consider the role that aquaculture can play in overcoming these problems. The possible ways in which aquaculture can do this are outlined and discussed.

Influence of leucite content on slow crack growth of dental porcelains

Objectives. To determine the stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, n, of seven dental porcelains (A: Ceramco I; B: Ceramco-II; C: Ceramco-III; D: d.Sign; E: Cerabien; F: Vitadur-Alpha; and G: Ultropaline) after aging in air or artificial saliva, and correlate results with leucite content (LC). Methods. Bars were fired according to manufacturers` instructions and polished before induction of cracks by a Vickers indenter (19.6 N, 20 s). Four specimens were stored in air/room temperature, and three in saliva/37 degrees C. Five indentations were made per specimen and crack lengths measured at the following times: similar to 0; 1; 3; 10; 30; 100; 300; 1000 and 3000 h. The stress corrosion coefficient n was calculated by linear regression analysis after plotting crack length as a function of time, considering that the slope of the curve was (2/(3n + 2)]. Microstructural analysis was performed to determine LC. Results. LC of the porcelains were 22% (A and B); 6% (C); 15% (D); 0% (E and F); and 13% (G). Except for porcelains A and D, all materials showed a decrease in their n values when stored in artificial saliva. However, the decrease was more pronounced for porcelains B, F, and G. Ranking of materials varied according to storage media (in air, porcelain G showed higher n compared to A, while in saliva both showed similar coefficients). No correlation was found between n values and LC in air or saliva. Significance. Storage media influenced the n value obtained for most of the materials. LC did not affect resistance to slow crack growth regardless of the test environment. (c) 2008 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Polymerization stress of resin composites as a function of system compliance

Objectives. Evaluate the effect of testing system compliance on polymerization stress and stress distribution of composites. Methods. Composites tested were Filtek Z250 (FZ), Herculite (HL), Tetric Ceram (TC), Helio Fill-AP (HF) and Heliomolar (HM). Stress was determined in 1-mm thick specimens, inserted between two rods of either poly(methyl methacrylate), PMMA, or glass. Experimental nominal stress (sigma(exp)) was calculated by dividing the maximum force recorded 5 min after photoactivation by the cross-sectional area of the rod. Composites` elastic modulus (E) was obtained by three-point bending. Data were submitted to one-way ANOVA/Tukey`s test (alpha = 0.05). Stress distribution on longitudinal (sigma(y)) and transverse (sigma(x)) axes of models representing the composites with the highest and lowest E (FZ and HM, respectively) were evaluated by finite element analysis (FEA). Results. sigma(exp) ranged from 5.5 to 8.8 MPa in glass and from 2.6 to 3.4 MPa in PMMA. Composite ranking was not identical in both substrates, since FZ showed or sigma(exp) statistically higher than HM in glass, while in PMMA FZ showed values similar to the other composites. A strong correlation was found between stress reduction (%) from glass to PMMA and composite`s E (r(2) = 0.946). FEA revealed that system compliance was influenced by the composite (FZ led to higher compliance than HM). sigma(x) distribution was similar in both substrates, while cry distribution showed larger areas of compressive stresses in specimens built on PMMA. Significance. sigma(exp) determined in PMMA was 53-68% lower than in glass. Composite ranking varied slightly due to differences in substrates` longitudinal and transverse deformation. (c) 2007 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Degree of conversion and mechanical properties of a BisGMA : TEGDMA composite as a function of the applied radiant exposure

Objective: Verify the influence of radiant exposure (H) on composite degree of conversion (DC) and mechanical properties. Methods: Composite was photoactivated with 3, 6, 12, 24, or 48 J/cm(2). Properties were measured after 48-h dry storage at room temperature. DC was determined on the flat surfaces of 6 mm x 2 mm disk-shaped specimens using FTIR. Flexural strength (FS) and modulus (FM) were accessed by three-point bending. Knoop microhardness number (KHN) was measured on fragments of FS specimens. Data were analyzed by one-way ANOVA/Tukey test, Student`s t-test, and regression analysis. Results: DC/top between 6 and 12 J/cm(2) and between 24 and 48 J/cm(2) were not statistically different. No differences between DC/top and bottom were detected. DC/bottom, FM, and KHN/top showed significant differences among all H levels. FS did not vary between 12 and 24 J/cm(2) and between 24 and 48 J/cm(2). KHN/bottom at 3 and 6 J/cm(2) was similar. KHN between top and bottom was different up to 12 J/cm(2). Regression analyses having H as independent variable showed a plateau region above 24 J/cm(2). KHN increased exponentially (top) or linearly (bottom) with DC. FS and FM increased almost linearly with DC/bottom up to 55% conversion. Conclusions: DC and mechanical properties increased with radiant exposure. Variables leveled off at high H levels. (C) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

CCR5 Down-regulates Osteoclast Function in Orthodontic Tooth Movement

During orthodontic tooth movement, there is local production of chemokines and an influx of leukocytes into the periodontium. CCL5 plays an important role in osteoclast recruitment and activation. This study aimed to investigate whether the CCR5-receptor influences these events and, consequently, orthodontic tooth movement. An orthodontic appliance was placed in wild-type mice (WT) and CCR5-deficient mice (CCR5(-/-)). The expression of mediators involved in bone remodeling was evaluated in periodontal tissues by Real-time PCR. The number of TRAP-positive osteoclasts and the expression of cathepsin K, RANKL, and MMP13 were significantly higher in CCR5(-/-). Meanwhile, the expression of two osteoblastic differentiation markers, RUNX2 and osteocalcin, and that of bone resorption regulators, IL-10 and OPG, were lower in CCR5(-/-). Analysis of the data also showed that CCR5(-/-) exhibited a greater amount of tooth movement after 7 days of mechanical loading. The results suggested that CCR5 might be a down-regulator of alveolar bone resorption during orthodontic movement.

The history and value of the elephant in Sri Lankan society

Reviews the literature to provide an overview of the historical significance of the elephant in Sri Lankan society, an association which dates back more than 4,000 years. The present status of this relationship assessed on the basis of the findings of a recent study undertaken on the total economic value of elephants in Sri Lanka. This paper, first briefly outlines the history, evolution, nature and their distribution of the Asian elephant while providing some insights on the status of the elephant (Elephas maxima maxima) in Sri Lanka. Next, it reviews the literature in order to assess the historical affiliation that the elephant has maintained with the Sri Lankan society, its culture, history, mythology and religion. The empirical evidence on the economic value of conservation of the remaining elephant population in Sri Lanka is reviewed and the Sri Lankan people’s attitudes towards conserving this species of wildlife. Literature reviewed and analysis undertaken indicates that the elephant in Sri Lanka, still, as in the past has a special place in Sri Lankan society, particularly, in its culture, religion and value system. Thus, there is a strong case for ensuring the survival of wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it also suggests that the community as a whole will experience a net benefit from ensuring the survival of wild elephants in Sri Lanka.