Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: the otter as a flagship species

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species. Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HAD-CM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas. Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Continuity and change in the gender segregation of the medical profession in Britain and France

It is a well established fact that the entry of women into higher-level professional occupations has not resulted in their equal distribution within these occupations. Indeed, the emergence and persistence of horizontal and vertical gender segregation within the professions has been at the heart of the development of a range of alternative theoretical perspectives on both the "feminisation process" and the future of the "professions"more generally. Through an in-depth comparative analysis of the recent changes in the organisation and administration of the medical profession in Britain and France, this paper draws upon statistical data and biographical interviews with male and female general practitioners (GPs) in both countries in order to discuss and review a variety of approaches that have been adopted to explain and analyse the "eminisation" process of higher-level professions. Our conclusions review the theoretical debates in the light of the evidence we have presented. It is argued that, despite important elements of continuity in respect of gendered occupational structuring in both countries, national variations in both professional and domestic gendered architectures lead to different outcomes as far as the extent and patterns of internal occupational segregation are concerned. Both female and male doctors are currently seeking - with some effect - to resist thepressures of medicine on family life.

Plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and body weight change.

OBJECTIVE We investigated the association between the proportion of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) in plasma phospholipids from blood samples drawn at enrollment and subsequent change in body weight. Sex, age, and BMI were considered as potential effect modifiers. METHOD A total of 1,998 women and men participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) were followed for a median of 4.9 years. The associations between the proportion of plasma phospholipid long-chain n-3 PUFA and change in weight were investigated using mixed-effect linear regression. RESULTS The proportion of long-chain n-3 PUFA was not associated with change in weight. Among all participants, the 1-year weight change was -0.7 g per 1% point higher long-chain n-3 PUFA level (95% confidence interval: -20.7 to 19.3). The results when stratified by sex, age, or BMI groups were not systematically different. CONCLUSION The results of this study suggest that the proportion of long-chain n-3 PUFA in plasma phospholipids is not associated with subsequent change in body weight within the range of exposure in the general population.

Attrition in the Swiss Household Panel: Is change associated with drop-out?

This study examines the importance of change in characteristics and circumstances ofhouseholds and household members for contact and cooperation patterns. The literaturesuggests that there might be an underrepresentation of change in panel studies, becauserespondents facing more changes would be more likely to drop out. We approach this problemby analysing whether previous changes are predictive of later attrition or temporary drop-out,using eleven waves of the Swiss Household Panel (1999-2009). Our analyses supportprevious findings to some extent. Changes in household composition, employment status andsocial involvement as well as moving are associated mainly with attrition and less withtemporary drop-out. These changes affect obtaining cooperation rather than obtaining contact,and tend to increase attrition.

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the studyof tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of twodifferent types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and MountainRainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated witha statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a betterunderstanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special caseof segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and thechange in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephrasusing Bayesian statistical calibration

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.

Protocol for the modeling the epidemiologic transition study: a longitudinal observational study of energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The prevalence of obesity has increased in societies of all socio-cultural backgrounds. To date, guidelines set forward to prevent obesity have universally emphasized optimal levels of physical activity. However there are few empirical data to support the assertion that low levels of energy expenditure in activity is a causal factor in the current obesity epidemic are very limited. METHODS: The Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study (METS) is a cohort study designed to assess the association between physical activity levels and relative weight, weight gain and diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five population-based samples at different stages of economic development. Twenty-five hundred young adults, ages 25-45, were enrolled in the study; 500 from sites in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the United States. At baseline, physical activity levels were assessed using accelerometry and a questionnaire in all participants and by doubly labeled water in a subsample of 75 per site. We assessed dietary intake using two separate 24-h recalls, body composition using bioelectrical impedance analysis, and health history, social and economic indicators by questionnaire. Blood pressure was measured and blood samples collected for measurement of lipids, glucose, insulin and adipokines. Full examination including physical activity using accelerometry, anthropometric data and fasting glucose will take place at 12 and 24 months. The distribution of the main variables and the associations between physical activity, independent of energy intake, glucose metabolism and anthropometric measures will be assessed using cross-section and longitudinal analysis within and between sites. DISCUSSION: METS will provide insight on the relative contribution of physical activity and diet to excess weight, age-related weight gain and incident glucose impairment in five populations' samples of young adults at different stages of economic development. These data should be useful for the development of empirically-based public health policy aimed at the prevention of obesity and associated chronic diseases.

Does Warfare Matter? Severity, Duration, and Outcomes of Civil Wars

Importa si una guerra civil es combat com un conflicte irregular, convencional o simètric no convencional? En altres paraules, tenen les “tecnologies de la rebel·lió” un impacte sobre la gravetat d’una guerra, la seva durada o el seu resultat? Aquest treball mostra que els conflictes irregulars duren més que els altres tipus de conflicte, mentre els convencionals tendeixen a ser més greus en termes de letalitat al camp de batalla. D’altra banda, els conflictes irregulars tendeixen a ser guanyats pels governs, mentre els altres són més propensos a acabar en empat. Substancialment, aquests resultats ens ajuden a donar sentit a l’evolució de les guerres civils, les quals tendeixen a ser més curtes, més intenses i més difícils per als governs. Teòricament, aquests resultats donen suport a la importància de la tecnologia de rebel·lió a l’estudiar la gravetat, la durada i els resultats de les guerres civils; a més, contribueixen a una millor comprensió de la contribució històrica de la guerra irregular a la construcció de l’Estat i al canvi social.

Social media and political change: The case of the 2011 revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt

Throughout the past decade, social media have come on the scene of various popular revolts. Their role as tools of information and coordination of social movements, from the Iranian Green Movement in 2009 to the Arab uprisings in 2011, has been widely debated. In most cases, online activism through blogs, Facebook, Twitter or other forms of social media has allowed citizens to be part of a social networking exercise and to engage in a public sphere that would have otherwise been unreachable to them due to severe repression. In Tunisia and Egypt, social media helped protests start and expand thanks to their ability to coordinate and disseminate information quickly. The new information and communication tools were an influential factor in accelerating the revolutionary processes across the Arab world, albeit they cannot be seen as neither the spur nor the drivers of any revolution.

Bibliotecas universitarias: cabalgando la tecnología, siguiendo al usuario

Repaso de los avances tecnológicos que más han influido en la evolución de las bibliotecas universitarias, y descripción de las actuaciones realizadas para adaptarse a los mismos: repositorios y acceso abierto, renovación de espacios, servicios a los investigadores, instrumentos de descubrimiento, y libro electrónico. Se concluye que en general las bibliotecas académicas gozan de buena salud gracias a que han sabido anticiparse a los cambios, y tienen buenas perspectivas de futuro.

Multi-modal Change Detection, Application to the Detection of Flooded Areas: Outcome of the 2009-2010 data fusion contest

The 2009-2010 Data Fusion Contest organized by the Data Fusion Technical Committee of the IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Society was focused on the detection of flooded areas using multi-temporal and multi-modal images. Both high spatial resolution optical and synthetic aperture radar data were provided. The goal was not only to identify the best algorithms (in terms of accuracy), but also to investigate the further improvement derived from decision fusion. This paper presents the four awarded algorithms and the conclusions of the contest, investigating both supervised and unsupervised methods and the use of multi-modal data for flood detection. Interestingly, a simple unsupervised change detection method provided similar accuracy as supervised approaches, and a digital elevation model-based predictive method yielded a comparable projected change detection map without using post-event data.

IVA in addition to BMD can change the osteoporosis management in 25% of clinical routine patients

Introduction Vertebral fracture is one of the major osteoporoticfractures which are unfortunately very often undetected. In addition,it is well known that prevalent vertebral fracture increases dramaticallythe risk of future additional fracture. Instant Vertebral Assessment(IVA) has been introduced in DXA device a couple of years ago toease the detection of such fracture when routine DXA are performed.To correctly use such tool, ISCD provided clinical recommendationon when and how to use it. The aim of our study was to evaluate theISCD guidelines in clinical routine patients and see how often itmay change of patient management.Methods During two months (March and April 2010), a medicalquestionnaire was systematically given to our clinical routine patientto check the validity of ISCD IVA recommendations in our population.In addition, all women had BMD measurement at AP spine,femur and 1/3 radius using a Discovery A System (Hologic, Waltham,USA). When appropriate, IVA measurement had been performedon the same DXA system and had been centrally evaluated by twotrained doctors for fracture status according to the semi-quantitativemethod of Genant. The reading had been performed when possiblebetween L5 and T4.Results Out of 210 women seen in the consultation, 109 (52 %)of them (mean age 68.2 ± 11.5 years) fulfilled the necessary criteriato have an IVA measurement. Out of these 109 women, 43 (incidence39.4 %) had osteoporosis at one of the three skeletal sitesand 31 (incidence 28.4 %) had at least one vertebral fracture. 14.7 %of women had both osteoporosis and at least one vertebral fractureclassifying them as "severe osteoporosis" while 46.8 % did not haveosteoporosis and no vertebral fracture. 24.8 % of the women hadosteoporosis but no vertebral fracture while 13.8 % of women didhave osteoporosis but vertebral fracture (clinical osteoporosis).Conclusions In 52 % of our patients, IVA was needed accordingto ISCD criteria. In half of them the IVA test influenced of patientmanagement either may changing the type of treatment of simplyby classifying patient as "clinical osteoporosis". IVA appears to bean important tool in clinical routine but unfortunately is not yetvery often use in most of the centers.

Desenvolupament de tecnologies fotovoltaiques orgàniques basades en DSSC

La finalitat d’aquest projecte és l’estudi de la tecnologia fotovoltaica basada en cèl∙lules solars de colorant, adquirint coneixements dels materials que composen els dispositius i del seu funcionament per a la posterior fabricació de cèl∙lules solars de referència, sobre les quals es realitzarà la caracterització de prestacions fotovoltaiques. A partir dels resultats obtinguts amb els dispositius de referència s’investigaran i es desenvoluparan nous electròlits basats en solvents verds i/o líquids iònics.

Tecnologies de cloud computing Openstack/StackOps

El propòsit d'aquest TFC és investigar i fer una instal·lació des de zero d'un model de negoci basat en l'allotjament web fent servir tecnologies de Cloud Computing. El software open-source que es farà servir per aquesta finalitat serà Openstack el qual es basa en un model de servei com infraestructura (IaaS). La nostra finalitat és poder implementar el model IaaS basat en Openstack. Per duu a terme aquest desplegament es farà servir dos hipervisors (KVM i VMware ESXi) per tal de testejar diferents sistemes d¿hipervisors treballant conjuntament.