Near-earth cosmic ray decreases associated with remote coronal mass ejections

Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is modulated by both particle drift patterns and solar wind structures on a range of timescales. Over solar cycles, GCR flux varies as a function of the total open solar magnetic flux and the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet. Over hours, drops of a few percent in near-Earth GCR flux (Forbush decreases, FDs) are well known to be associated with the near-Earth passage of solar wind structures resulting from corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and transient coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We report on four FDs seen at ground-based neutron monitors which cannot be immediately associated with significant structures in the local solar wind. Similarly, there are significant near-Earth structures which do not produce any corresponding GCR variation. Three of the FDs are during the STEREO era, enabling in situ and remote observations from three well-separated heliospheric locations. Extremely large CMEs passed the STEREO-A spacecraft, which was behind the West limb of the Sun, approximately 2–3 days before each near- Earth FD. Solar wind simulations suggest that the CMEs combined with pre-existing CIRs, enhancing the pre-existing barriers to GCR propagation. Thus these observations provide strong evidence for the modulation of GCR flux by remote solar wind structures.

Structural constraints on pronoun binding and coreference: evidence from eye movements during reading

A number of recent studies have investigated how syntactic and non-syntactic constraints combine to cue memory retrieval during anaphora resolution. In this paper we investigate how syntactic constraints and gender congruence interact to guide memory retrieval during the resolution of subject pronouns. Subject pronouns are always technically ambiguous, and the application of syntactic constraints on their interpretation depends on properties of the antecedent that is to be retrieved. While pronouns can freely corefer with non-quantified referential antecedents, linking a pronoun to a quantified antecedent is only possible in certain syntactic configurations via variable binding. We report the results from a judgment task and three online reading comprehension experiments investigating pronoun resolution with quantified and non-quantified antecedents. Results from both the judgment task and participants' eye movements during reading indicate that comprehenders freely allow pronouns to corefer with non-quantified antecedents, but that retrieval of quantified antecedents is restricted to specific syntactic environments. We interpret our findings as indicating that syntactic constraints constitute highly weighted cues to memory retrieval during anaphora resolution.

Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets

This paper investigates whether bank integration measured by cross-border bank flows can capture the co-movements across housing markets in developed countries by using a spatial dynamic panel model. The transmission can occur through a global banking channel in which global banks intermediate wholesale funding to local banks. Changes in financial conditions are passed across borders through the banks’ balance-sheet exposure to credit, currency, maturity, and funding risks resulting in house price spillovers. While controlling for country-level and global factors, we find significant co-movement across housing markets of countries with proportionally high bank integration. Bank integration can better capture house price co-movements than other measures of economic integration. Once we account for bank exposure, other spatial linkages traditionally used to account for return co-movements across region – such as trade, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, geographic proximity, etc. – become insignificant. Moreover, we find that the co-movement across housing markets decreases for countries with less developed mortgage markets characterized by fixed mortgage rate contracts, low limits of loan-to-value ratios and no mortgage equity withdrawal.

Energetic particle influence on the Earth's atmosphere

This manuscript gives an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of the effects of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) onto the whole atmosphere, from the lower thermosphere/mesosphere through the stratosphere and troposphere, to the surface. The paper summarizes the different sources and energies of particles, principally galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs) and energetic electron precipitation (EEP). All the proposed mechanisms by which EPP can affect the atmosphere are discussed, including chemical changes in the upper atmosphere and lower thermosphere, chemistry-dynamics feedbacks, the global electric circuit and cloud formation. The role of energetic particles in Earth’s atmosphere is a multi-disciplinary problem that requires expertise from a range of scientific backgrounds. To assist with this synergy, summary tables are provided, which are intended to evaluate the level of current knowledge of the effects of energetic particles on processes in the entire atmosphere.

Becoming a written word: eye movements reveal order of acquisition effects following incidental exposure to new words during silent reading

We know that from mid-childhood onwards most new words are learned implicitly via reading; however, most word learning studies have taught novel items explicitly. We examined incidental word learning during reading by focusing on the well-documented finding that words which are acquired early in life are processed more quickly than those acquired later. Novel words were embedded in meaningful sentences and were presented to adult readers early (day 1) or later (day 2) during a five-day exposure phase. At test adults read the novel words in semantically neutral sentences. Participants’ eye movements were monitored throughout exposure and test. Adults also completed a surprise memory test in which they had to match each novel word with its definition. Results showed a decrease in reading times for all novel words over exposure, and significantly longer total reading times at test for early than late novel words. Early-presented novel words were also remembered better in the offline test. Our results show that order of presentation influences processing time early in the course of acquiring a new word, consistent with partial and incremental growth in knowledge occurring as a function of an individual’s experience with each word.

Using eye movements to investigate word frequency effects in children’s sentence reading

While eye movements have been used widely to investigate how skilled adult readers process written language, relatively little research has used this methodology with children. This is unfortunate as, as we discuss here, eye-movement studies have significant potential to inform our understanding of children’s reading development. We consider some of the empirical and theoretical issues that arise when using this methodology with children, illustrating our points with data from an experiment examining word frequency effects in 8-year-old children’s sentence reading. Children showed significantly longer gaze durations to low than high-frequency words, demonstrating that linguistic characteristics of text drive children’s eye movements as they read. We discuss these findings within the broader context of how eye-movement studies can inform our understanding of children’s reading, and can assist with the development of appropriately targeted interventions to support children as they learn to read.

Children’s eye movements during reading

Children’s eye movements during reading. In this chapter, we evaluate the literature on children’s eye movements during reading to date. We describe the basic, developmental changes that occur in eye movement behaviour during reading, discuss age-related changes in the extent and time course of information extraction during fixations in reading, and compare the effects of visual and linguistic manipulations in the text on children’s eye movement behaviour in relation to skilled adult readers. We argue that future research will benefit from examining how eye movement behaviour during reading develops in relation to language and literacy skills, and use of computational modelling with children’s eye movement data may improve our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie the progression from beginning to skilled reader.

Children’s and Adults’ Processing of Anomaly and Implausibility during Reading: Evidence from Eye Movements

The eye movements of 24 children and 24 adults were monitored to compare how they read sentences containing plausible, implausible, and anomalous thematic relations. In the implausible condition the incongruity occurred due to the incompatibility of two objects involved in the event denoted by the main verb. In the anomalous condition the direct object of the verb was not a possible verb argument. Adults exhibited immediate disruption with the anomalous sentences as compared to the implausible sentences as indexed by longer gaze durations on the target word. Children exhibited the same pattern of effects as adults as far as the anomalous sentences were concerned, but exhibited delayed effects of implausibility. These data indicate that while children and adults are alike in their basic thematic assignment processes during reading, children may be delayed in the efficiency with which they are able to integrate pragmatic and real world knowledge into their discourse representation.

The binocular coordination of eye movements during reading in children and adults

Recent evidence indicates that each eye does not always fixate the same letter during reading and there has been some suggestion that processing difficulty may influence binocular coordination. We recorded binocular eye movements from children and adults reading sentences containing a word frequency manipulation. We found disparities of significant magnitude between the two eyes for all participants, with greater disparity magnitudes in children than adults. All participants made fewer crossed than uncrossed fixations. However, children made a higher proportion of crossed fixations than adults. We found no influence of word frequency on children’s fixations and on binocular coordination in adults.

'Where water wells up from the earth’: excavations at the findspot of the Late Bronze Age hoard from Broadward, Shropshire

The paper begins by considering the importance of springs as a focus for votive deposits in Bronze Age Britain. This is not a new idea, but nowhere has this association been examined through the excavation of one of these features. The point is illustrated by excavation at the findspot of a famous group of Late Bronze Age weapons, the Broadward hoard, discovered in 1867. Little was known about the site, where it was found or the character of the original deposit, but a study of contemporary accounts of the hoard, combined with geophysical and topographical surveys, led to small-scale excavation in 2010, which showed that the deposit had most probably been buried in a pit on the edge of a spring. Other finds associated with the spring included an Early Bronze Age macehead, a Roman pot and various Saxon and medieval animal bones. The latest deposit, with a post-medieval carbon date, included a wooden knife or dagger. An adjacent palaeochannel provided an important environmental sequence for this part of the English–Welsh borderland and suggests that the Late Bronze Age hoard had been deposited not far from a settlement. A nearby earthwork enclosure was associated with a clay weight, which may be of similar date. Despite the limited scale of the fieldwork, it illustrates the potential for treating springs associated with artefact finds on the same terms as other archaeological deposits.

Time-lapse geophysical investigations over known archaeological features using electrical resistivity imaging and earth resistance

Electrical methods of geophysical survey are known to produce results that are hard to predict at different times of the year, and under differing weather conditions. This is a problem which can lead to misinterpretation of archaeological features under investigation. The dynamic relationship between a ‘natural’ soil matrix and an archaeological feature is a complex one, which greatly affects the success of the feature’s detection when using active electrical methods of geophysical survey. This study has monitored the gradual variation of measured resistivity over a selection of study areas. By targeting difficult to find, and often ‘missing’ electrical anomalies of known archaeological features, this study has increased the understanding of both the detection and interpretation capabilities of such geophysical surveys. A 16 month time-lapse study over 4 archaeological features has taken place to investigate the aforementioned detection problem across different soils and environments. In addition to the commonly used Twin-Probe earth resistance survey, electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) and quadrature electro-magnetic induction (EMI) were also utilised to explore the problem. Statistical analyses have provided a novel interpretation, which has yielded new insights into how the detection of archaeological features is influenced by the relationship between the target feature and the surrounding ‘natural’ soils. The study has highlighted both the complexity and previous misconceptions around the predictability of the electrical methods. The analysis has confirmed that each site provides an individual and nuanced situation, the variation clearly relating to the composition of the soils (particularly pore size) and the local weather history. The wide range of reasons behind survey success at each specific study site has been revealed. The outcomes have shown that a simplistic model of seasonality is not universally applicable to the electrical detection of archaeological features. This has led to the development of a method for quantifying survey success, enabling a deeper understanding of the unique way in which each site is affected by the interaction of local environmental and geological conditions.

Earth hummocks in north-east Okstindan, northern Norway: morphology, distribution and environmental constraints

Earth hummocks (also termed pounus or thúfur) are a common form of periglacial non-sorted patterned ground. The study objectives were to determine the morphology, distribution and development on slopes of earth hummocks in north-east Okstindan, Norway, an area with many hummocks but few documented accounts. The methodology involved detailed geomorphological mapping and precise measurement with a profileometer. The internal structure of the hummocks was investigated through excavations and sediment sample analyses. Fourteen sites with well-developed earth hummocks (accounting for over 650 individual hummock forms) were investigated. The sites have an average altitude of 750 m and occur on slopes with an average gradient of 7°. The hummock heights are in the range 0.11–0.52 m and their diameters 0.7–1.5 m, although coalescent forms are up to 5 m in length. The hummock morphology is characterised by a variable plan form, asymmetry with respect to upslope and downslope forms, downslope elongation, coalescence, and superimposed microtopography. The hummocks’ distribution appeared to have been controlled by the existence of a frost-susceptible ‘host’ sediment, but moisture availability and topographic position played a role. The authors conclude that differential frost heave and vegetation cover stability are critical for the hummocks’ longevity in the studied landscape.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

Simulating the effects of mid- to upper-tropospheric clouds on microwave emissions in EC-Earth using COSP

In this work, the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison (CFMIP) Observation Simulation Package (COSP) is expanded to include scattering and emission effects of clouds and precipitation at passive microwave frequencies. This represents an advancement over the official version of COSP (version 1.4.0) in which only clear-sky brightness temperatures are simulated. To highlight the potential utility of this new microwave simulator, COSP results generated using the climate model EC-Earth's version 3 atmosphere as input are compared with Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) channel (190.311 GHz) observations. Specifically, simulated seasonal brightness temperatures (TB) are contrasted with MHS observations for the period December 2005 to November 2006 to identify possible biases in EC-Earth's cloud and atmosphere fields. The EC-Earth's atmosphere closely reproduces the microwave signature of many of the major large-scale and regional scale features of the atmosphere and surface. Moreover, greater than 60 % of the simulated TB are within 3 K of the NOAA-18 observations. However, COSP is unable to simulate sufficiently low TB in areas of frequent deep convection. Within the Tropics, the model's atmosphere can yield an underestimation of TB by nearly 30 K for cloudy areas in the ITCZ. Possible reasons for this discrepancy include both incorrect amount of cloud ice water in the model simulations and incorrect ice particle scattering assumptions used in the COSP microwave forward model. These multiple sources of error highlight the non-unique nature of the simulated satellite measurements, a problem exacerbated by the fact that EC-Earth lacks detailed micro-physical parameters necessary for accurate forward model calculations. Such issues limit the robustness of our evaluation and suggest a general note of caution when making COSP-satellite observation evaluations.

The Spanish Guerrilla 1808-1814 as a model for people’s wars and resistance movements

Transforming the meaning of the term 'guerrilla' which had once meant feud or private warfare, and then irregular war conducted by special forces on behalf of a state or government, the Spanish Guerrilla (part of the Peninsular War) against Napoleon became the model to be emulated by insurgency movements across the world. Even though the term itself continued to be used, even in Spanish, for special operations, in henceforth became imbued with an ideological dimension, which is how it would be used especially in the 20th century.