Sustainable improvement of water networks : to achieve best decisions for rehabilitation plans using advanced GIS and statistical techniques

Many of developing countries are facing crisis in water management due to increasing of population, water scarcity, water contaminations and effects of world economic crisis. Water distribution systems in developing countries are facing many challenges of efficient repair and rehabilitation since the information of water network is very limited, which makes the rehabilitation assessment plans very difficult. Sufficient information with high technology in developed countries makes the assessment for rehabilitation easy. Developing countries have many difficulties to assess the water network causing system failure, deterioration of mains and bad water quality in the network due to pipe corrosion and deterioration. The limited information brought into focus the urgent need to develop economical assessment for rehabilitation of water distribution systems adapted to water utilities. Gaza Strip is subject to a first case study, suffering from severe shortage in the water supply and environmental problems and contamination of underground water resources. This research focuses on improvement of water supply network to reduce the water losses in water network based on limited database using techniques of ArcGIS and commercial water network software (WaterCAD). A new approach for rehabilitation water pipes has been presented in Gaza city case study. Integrated rehabilitation assessment model has been developed for rehabilitation water pipes including three components; hydraulic assessment model, Physical assessment model and Structural assessment model. WaterCAD model has been developed with integrated in ArcGIS to produce the hydraulic assessment model for water network. The model have been designed based on pipe condition assessment with 100 score points as a maximum points for pipe condition. As results from this model, we can indicate that 40% of water pipeline have score points less than 50 points and about 10% of total pipes length have less than 30 score points. By using this model, the rehabilitation plans for each region in Gaza city can be achieved based on available budget and condition of pipes. The second case study is Kuala Lumpur Case from semi-developed countries, which has been used to develop an approach to improve the water network under crucial conditions using, advanced statistical and GIS techniques. Kuala Lumpur (KL) has water losses about 40% and high failure rate, which make severe problem. This case can represent cases in South Asia countries. Kuala Lumpur faced big challenges to reduce the water losses in water network during last 5 years. One of these challenges is high deterioration of asbestos cement (AC) pipes. They need to replace more than 6500 km of AC pipes, which need a huge budget to be achieved. Asbestos cement is subject to deterioration due to various chemical processes that either leach out the cement material or penetrate the concrete to form products that weaken the cement matrix. This case presents an approach for geo-statistical model for modelling pipe failures in a water distribution network. Database of Syabas Company (Kuala Lumpur water company) has been used in developing the model. The statistical models have been calibrated, verified and used to predict failures for both networks and individual pipes. The mathematical formulation developed for failure frequency in Kuala Lumpur was based on different pipeline characteristics, reflecting several factors such as pipe diameter, length, pressure and failure history. Generalized linear model have been applied to predict pipe failures based on District Meter Zone (DMZ) and individual pipe levels. Based on Kuala Lumpur case study, several outputs and implications have been achieved. Correlations between spatial and temporal intervals of pipe failures also have been done using ArcGIS software. Water Pipe Assessment Model (WPAM) has been developed using the analysis of historical pipe failure in Kuala Lumpur which prioritizing the pipe rehabilitation candidates based on ranking system. Frankfurt Water Network in Germany is the third main case study. This case makes an overview for Survival analysis and neural network methods used in water network. Rehabilitation strategies of water pipes have been developed for Frankfurt water network in cooperation with Mainova (Frankfurt Water Company). This thesis also presents a methodology of technical condition assessment of plastic pipes based on simple analysis. This thesis aims to make contribution to improve the prediction of pipe failures in water networks using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). The output from the technical condition assessment model can be used to estimate future budget needs for rehabilitation and to define pipes with high priority for replacement based on poor condition. rn

Spatial and temporal flower presentation in Apiaceae-Apioideae

Alle Doldengewächse (Apiaceae), darunter die größte, weltweit verbreitete Unterfamilie der Apioideen, weisen in ihren Blütenständen sehr einheitliche Merkmale auf. Die ‚Doppeldolden´ werden aus kleinen, weißen oder gelben Blüten gebildet und von vielen unspezialisierten Insekten besucht. Der uniforme Eindruck, der damit erweckt wird, ist unter Umständen ein Grund, dass die zugrundeliegende Morphologie bislang wenig untersucht wurde. Gegenstand der vorliegenden Dissertation ist es daher, die ‚verborgene Diversität´ im Blütenstandsbereich der Apiaceae -Apioideen mit dem Ziel darzustellen, den Einfluss der Architektur der Pflanzen auf die Art der Blütenpräsentation in Raum und Zeit und damit auf das Reproduktionssystem der Art zu ermitteln. Im ersten Kapitel zeigt der Vergleich von neun ausgewählten Arten, dass in den selbstfertilen und unspezifisch bestäubten Pflanzen durch Synchronisation und Rhythmik in der Präsentation von Blüten Fremdbefruchtung gefördert wird. Entweder durchlaufen die Pflanzen dabei nur eine getrennte männliche und weibliche Blühphase (Xanthoselinum alsaticum) oder der moduläre Bau der Pflanzen führt zu einer Folge männlicher und weiblicher Blühphasen (multizyklische Dichogamie). Die Diözie in Trinia glauca kann in diesem Zusammenhang als eine Trennung der Blühphasen auf verschiedengeschlechtliche Individuen gesehen werden. Für die andromonözischen Arten wird gezeigt, dass der Anteil funktional männlicher Blüten mit steigender Doldenordnung nicht einheitlich zu- oder abnimmt. Dadurch fungieren die Pflanzen zu verschiedenen Zeiten und mit unterschiedlicher Stärke eher als Pollenrezeptoren oder Pollendonatoren. Es wird deutlich, dass das ‚uniforme Muster‘ der Apioideen mit Dolden verschiedener Ordnungen, dichogamen Blüten und deren diversen Geschlechtsausbildungen ein komplexes Raum-Zeit-Gefüge zur Optimierung des Reproduktionssystems darstellt. Das zweite Kapitel stellt die Ergebnisse von Manipulationsexperimenten (Handbestäubung, Bestäuberabschirmung, Entfernen von Dolden niedriger Ordnung) an Chaerophyllum bulbosum dar, die zeigen, dass das Raum-Zeit-Gefüge in der Präsentation der Blüten der Art erlaubt, flexibel auf Umwelteinflüsse zu reagieren. Es stellt sich heraus, dass mechanische Beschädigungen kaum Einfluss auf den Andromonöziegrad und prozentualen Fruchtansatz der Individuen nehmen. Grundvoraussetzung der Reaktionsfähigkeit ist wiederum deren modulärer Bau. Dieser erlaubt es den Pflanzen, zusammen mit dem andromonöziebedingten Reservoir an - geschlechtlich flexiblen - männlichen Blüten, in den später angelegten Dolden fehlenden Fruchtansatz der Blüten früh blühender Dolden zu kompensieren. Im dritten Kapitel wird eine vergleichende Merkmalsanalyse an 255 Apioideen-Arten vorgelegt, die alle Verwandtschaftskreise, Wuchsformen und Verbreitungsgebiete der Gruppe repräsentieren. Ziel der Analyse war die Identifizierung von Merkmalssyndromen, die den Zusammenhang zwischen Architektur und Reproduktionssystem verdeutlichen sollten. Interessanterweise sind die einzigen Merkmale, die miteinander einhergehen, Protogynie und die graduelle Abnahme männlicher Blüten mit steigender Doldenordnung. Alle anderen Merkmale variieren unabhängig voneinander und erzeugen auf vielen verschiedenen Wegen immer wieder das gleiche Funktionsmuster, das als ‚breeding syndrome‘ der Apioideae gedeutet werden kann. Die Arbeit leistet einen wichtigen Beitrag zum Verständnis der Blütenstände der Apiaceen und darüber hinaus zu morphologischer Variation in ‚unspezialisierten‘ Reproduktionssystemen. Offensichtlich liegt in den Apioideen der Selektionsdruck auf der Aufrechterhaltung der generalisistischen Bestäubung und überprägt alle morphologisch-phylogenetischen Merkmalsvarianten.

Hypersonic phonon propagation in mesoscopic systems by Brillouin spectroscopy

Phononic crystals, capable to block or direct the propagation of elastic/acoustic waves, have attracted increasing interdisciplinary interest across condensed matter physics and materials science. As of today, no generalized full description of elastic wave propagation in phononic structures is available, mainly due to the large number of variables determining the band diagram. Therefore, this thesis aims for a deeper understanding of the fundamental concepts governing wave propagation in mesoscopic structures by investigation of appropriate model systems. The phononic dispersion relation at hypersonic frequencies is directly investigated by the non-destructive technique of high-resolution spontaneous Brillouin light scattering (BLS) combined with computational methods. Due to the vector nature of the elastic wave propagation, we first studied the hypersonic band structure of hybrid superlattices. These 1D phononic crystals composed of alternating layers of hard and soft materials feature large Bragg gaps. BLS spectra are sensitive probes of the moduli, photo-elastic constants and structural parameters of the constituent components. Engineering of the band structure can be realized by introduction of defects. Here, cavity layers are employed to launch additional modes that modify the dispersion of the undisturbed superlattice, with extraordinary implications to the band gap region. Density of states calculations in conjunction with the associated deformation allow for unambiguous identication of surface and cavity modes, as well as their interaction with adjacent defects. Next, the role of local resonances in phononic systems is explored in 3D structures based on colloidal particles. In turbid media BLS records the particle vibration spectrum comprising resonant modes due to the spatial confinement of elastic energy. Here, the frequency and lineshapes of the particle eigenmodes are discussed as function of increased interaction and departure from spherical symmetry. The latter is realized by uniaxial stretching of polystyrene spheres, that can be aligned in an alternating electric field. The resulting spheroidal crystals clearly exhibit anisotropic phononic properties. Establishing reliable predictions of acoustic wave propagation, necessary to advance, e.g., optomechanics and phononic devices is the ultimate aim of this thesis.

The multiscenario multienvironment BioSecure Multimodal Database (BMDB)

A new multimodal biometric database designed and acquired within the framework of the European BioSecure Network of Excellence is presented. It is comprised of more than 600 individuals acquired simultaneously in three scenarios: 1) over the Internet, 2) in an office environment with desktop PC, and 3) in indoor/outdoor environments with mobile portable hardware. The three scenarios include a common part of audio/video data. Also, signature and fingerprint data have been acquired both with desktop PC and mobile portable hardware. Additionally, hand and iris data were acquired in the second scenario using desktop PC. Acquisition has been conducted by 11 European institutions. Additional features of the BioSecure Multimodal Database (BMDB) are: two acquisition sessions, several sensors in certain modalities, balanced gender and age distributions, multimodal realistic scenarios with simple and quick tasks per modality, cross-European diversity, availability of demographic data, and compatibility with other multimodal databases. The novel acquisition conditions of the BMDB allow us to perform new challenging research and evaluation of either monomodal or multimodal biometric systems, as in the recent BioSecure Multimodal Evaluation campaign. A description of this campaign including baseline results of individual modalities from the new database is also given. The database is expected to be available for research purposes through the BioSecure Association during 2008.

A landscape mosaics approach for characterizing swidden systems from a REDD+ perspective

Swidden agriculture is often deemed responsible for deforestation and forest degradation in tropical regions, yet swidden landscapes are commonly not visible on land cover/use maps, making it difficult to prove this assertion. For a future REDD+ scheme, the correct identification of deforestation and forest degradation and linking these processes to land use is crucial. However, it is a key challenge to distinguish degradation and deforestation from temporal vegetation dynamics inherent to swiddening. In this article we present an approach for spatial delineation of swidden systems based on landscape mosaics. Furthermore we introduce a classification for change processes based on the change matrix of these landscape mosaics. Our approach is illustrated by a case study in Viengkham district in northern Laos. Over a 30-year time period the swidden landscapes have increased in extent and they have degraded, shifting from long crop–fallow cycles to short cycles. From 2007 to 2009 degradation within the swidden system accounted for half of all the landscape mosaics change processes. Pioneering shifting cultivation did not prevail. The landscape mosaics approach could be used in a swidden compatible monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) system of a future REDD+ framework.

A Systems-Level Approach to Human Epileptic Seizures

Epileptic seizures are due to the pathological collective activity of large cellular assemblies. A better understanding of this collective activity is integral to the development of novel diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In contrast to reductionist analyses, which focus solely on small-scale characteristics of ictogenesis, here we follow a systems-level approach, which combines both small-scale and larger-scale analyses. Peri-ictal dynamics of epileptic networks are assessed by studying correlation within and between different spatial scales of intracranial electroencephalographic recordings (iEEG) of a heterogeneous group of patients suffering from pharmaco-resistant epilepsy. Epileptiform activity as recorded by a single iEEG electrode is determined objectively by the signal derivative and then subjected to a multivariate analysis of correlation between all iEEG channels. We find that during seizure, synchrony increases on the smallest and largest spatial scales probed by iEEG. In addition, a dynamic reorganization of spatial correlation is observed on intermediate scales, which persists after seizure termination. It is proposed that this reorganization may indicate a balancing mechanism that decreases high local correlation. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that during epileptic seizures hypercorrelated and therefore functionally segregated brain areas are re-integrated into more collective brain dynamics. In addition, except for a special sub-group, a highly significant association is found between the location of ictal iEEG activity and the location of areas of relative decrease of localised EEG correlation. The latter could serve as a clinically important quantitative marker of the seizure onset zone (SOZ).

Species Richness-Environment Relationships of European Arthropods at Two Spatial Grains: Habitats and Countries

We study how species richness of arthropods relates to theories concerning net primary productivity, ambient energy, water-energy dynamics and spatial environmental heterogeneity. We use two datasets of arthropod richness with similar spatial extents (Scandinavia to Mediterranean), but contrasting spatial grain (local habitat and country). Samples of ground-dwelling spiders, beetles, bugs and ants were collected from 32 paired habitats at 16 locations across Europe. Species richness of these taxonomic groups was also determined for 25 European countries based on the Fauna Europaea database. We tested effects of net primary productivity (NPP), annual mean temperature (T), annual rainfall (R) and potential evapotranspiration of the coldest month (PETmin) on species richness and turnover. Spatial environmental heterogeneity within countries was considered by including the ranges of NPP, T, R and PETmin. At the local habitat grain, relationships between species richness and environmental variables differed strongly between taxa and trophic groups. However, species turnover across locations was strongly correlated with differences in T. At the country grain, species richness was significantly correlated with environmental variables from all four theories. In particular, species richness within countries increased strongly with spatial heterogeneity in T. The importance of spatial heterogeneity in T for both species turnover across locations and for species richness within countries suggests that the temperature niche is an important determinant of arthropod diversity. We suggest that, unless climatic heterogeneity is constant across sampling units, coarse-grained studies should always account for environmental heterogeneity as a predictor of arthropod species richness, just as studies with variable area of sampling units routinely consider area.

Endothelial survival factors and spatial completion, but not pericyte coverage of retinal capillaries determine vessel plasticity

Pericyte loss and capillary regression are characteristic for incipient diabetic retinopathy. Pericyte recruitment is involved in vessel maturation, and ligand-receptor systems contributing to pericyte recruitment are survival factors for endothelial cells in pericyte-free in vitro systems. We studied pericyte recruitment in relation to the susceptibility toward hyperoxia-induced vascular remodeling using the pericyte reporter X-LacZ mouse and the mouse model of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). Pericytes were found in close proximity to vessels, both during formation of the superficial and the deep capillary layers. When exposure of mice to the ROP was delayed by 24 h, i.e., after the deep retinal layer had formed [at postnatal (p) day 8], preretinal neovascularizations were substantially diminished at p18. Mice with a delayed ROP exposure had 50% reduced avascular zones. Formation of the deep capillary layers at p8 was associated with a combined up-regulation of angiopoietin-1 and PDGF-B, while VEGF was almost unchanged during the transition from a susceptible to a resistant capillary network. Inhibition of Tie-2 function either by soluble Tie-2 or by a sulindac analog, an inhibitor of Tie-2 phosphorylation, resensitized retinal vessels to neovascularizations due to a reduction of the deep capillary network. Inhibition of Tie-2 function had no effect on pericyte recruitment. Our data indicate that the final maturation of the retinal vasculature and its resistance to regressive signals such as hyperoxia depend on the completion of the multilayer structure, in particular the deep capillary layers, and are independent of the coverage by pericytes.

An analysis of the spatial and temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza occurrence in Vietnam using national surveillance data

The objectives of this study were to describe the spatio-temporal pattern of an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Vietnam and to identify potential risk factors for the introduction and maintenance of infection within the poultry population. The results indicate that during the time period 2004–early 2006 a sequence of three epidemic waves occurred in Vietnam as distinct spatial and temporal clusters. The risk of outbreak occurrence increased with a greater percentage of rice paddy fields, increasing domestic water bird and chicken density. It increased with reducing distance to higher population density aggregations, and in the third epidemic wave with increasing percentage of aquaculture. The findings indicate that agri-livestock farming systems involving domestic water birds and rice production in river delta areas are important for the maintenance and spread of infection. While the government’s control measures appear to have been effective in the South and Central parts of Vietnam, it is likely that in the North of Vietnam the vaccination campaign led to transmission of infection which was subsequently brought under control.

Improving the performance of GIS/spatial analysts though novel applications of the Emotiv EPOC EEG headset

Geospatial information systems are used to analyze spatial data to provide decision makers with relevant, up-to-date, information. The processing time required for this information is a critical component to response time. Despite advances in algorithms and processing power, we still have many “human-in-the-loop” factors. Given the limited number of geospatial professionals, analysts using their time effectively is very important. The automation and faster humancomputer interactions of common tasks that will not disrupt their workflow or attention is something that is very desirable. The following research describes a novel approach to increase productivity with a wireless, wearable, electroencephalograph (EEG) headset within the geospatial workflow.

Community managed rural water supply systems in the Dominican Republic : assessment of sustainability of systems built by the National Institute of Potable Water and Peace Corps, Dominican Republic

In the Dominican Republic economic growth in the past twenty years has not yielded sufficient improvement in access to drinking water services, especially in rural areas where 1.5 million people do not have access to an improved water source (WHO, 2006). Worldwide, strategic development planning in the rural water sector has focused on participatory processes and the use of demand filters to ensure that service levels match community commitment to post-project operation and maintenance. However studies have concluded that an alarmingly high percentage of drinking water systems (20-50%) do not provide service at the design levels and/or fail altogether (up to 90%): BNWP (2009), Annis (2006), and Reents (2003). World Bank, USAID, NGOs, and private consultants have invested significant resources in an effort to determine what components make up an “enabling environment” for sustainable community management of rural water systems (RWS). Research has identified an array of critical factors, internal and external to the community, which affect long term sustainability of water services. Different frameworks have been proposed in order to better understand the linkages between individual factors and sustainability of service. This research proposes a Sustainability Analysis Tool to evaluate the sustainability of RWS, adapted from previous relevant work in the field to reflect the realities in the Dominican Republic. It can be used as a diagnostic tool for government entities and development organizations to characterize the needs of specific communities and identify weaknesses in existing training regimes or support mechanisms. The framework utilizes eight indicators in three categories (Organization/Management, Financial Administration, and Technical Service). Nineteen independent variables are measured resulting in a score of sustainability likely (SL), possible (SP), or unlikely (SU) for each of the eight indicators. Thresholds are based upon benchmarks from the DR and around the world, primary data collected during the research, and the author’s 32 months of field experience. A final sustainability score is calculated using weighting factors for each indicator, derived from Lockwood (2003). The framework was tested using a statistically representative geographically stratified random sample of 61 water systems built in the DR by initiatives of the National Institute of Potable Water (INAPA) and Peace Corps. The results concluded that 23% of sample systems are likely to be sustainable in the long term, 59% are possibly sustainable, and for 18% it is unlikely that the community will be able to overcome any significant challenge. Communities that were scored as unlikely sustainable perform poorly in participation, financial durability, and governance while the highest scores were for system function and repair service. The Sustainability Analysis Tool results are verified by INAPA and PC reports, evaluations, and database information, as well as, field observations and primary data collected during the surveys. Future research will analyze the nature and magnitude of relationships between key factors and the sustainability score defined by the tool. Factors include: gender participation, legal status of water committees, plumber/operator remuneration, demand responsiveness, post construction support methodologies, and project design criteria.

Topographic and meteorological influences on spatial scaling of heavy convective rainfall in mountainous regions

Characterizing the spatial scaling and dynamics of convective precipitation in mountainous terrain and the development of downscaling methods to transfer precipitation fields from one scale to another is the overall motivation for this research. Substantial progress has been made on characterizing the space-time organization of Midwestern convective systems and tropical rainfall, which has led to the development of statistical/dynamical downscaling models. Space-time analysis and downscaling of orographic precipitation has received less attention due to the complexities of topographic influences. This study uses multiscale statistical analysis to investigate the spatial scaling of organized thunderstorms that produce heavy rainfall and flooding in mountainous regions. Focus is placed on the eastern and western slopes of the Appalachian region and the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains. Parameter estimates are analyzed over time and attention is given to linking changes in the multiscale parameters with meteorological forcings and orographic influences on the rainfall. Influences of geographic regions and predominant orographic controls on trends in multiscale properties of precipitation are investigated. Spatial resolutions from 1 km to 50 km are considered. This range of spatial scales is needed to bridge typical scale gaps between distributed hydrologic models and numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts and attempts to address the open research problem of scaling organized thunderstorms and convection in mountainous terrain down to 1-4 km scales.

Electronic medical record systems, data quality and loss to follow-up: survey of antiretroviral therapy programmes in resource-limited settings

OBJECTIVE: To describe the electronic medical databases used in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in lower-income countries and assess the measures such programmes employ to maintain and improve data quality and reduce the loss of patients to follow-up. METHODS: In 15 countries of Africa, South America and Asia, a survey was conducted from December 2006 to February 2007 on the use of electronic medical record systems in ART programmes. Patients enrolled in the sites at the time of the survey but not seen during the previous 12 months were considered lost to follow-up. The quality of the data was assessed by computing the percentage of missing key variables (age, sex, clinical stage of HIV infection, CD4+ lymphocyte count and year of ART initiation). Associations between site characteristics (such as number of staff members dedicated to data management), measures to reduce loss to follow-up (such as the presence of staff dedicated to tracing patients) and data quality and loss to follow-up were analysed using multivariate logit models. FINDINGS: Twenty-one sites that together provided ART to 50 060 patients were included (median number of patients per site: 1000; interquartile range, IQR: 72-19 320). Eighteen sites (86%) used an electronic database for medical record-keeping; 15 (83%) such sites relied on software intended for personal or small business use. The median percentage of missing data for key variables per site was 10.9% (IQR: 2.0-18.9%) and declined with training in data management (odds ratio, OR: 0.58; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.37-0.90) and weekly hours spent by a clerk on the database per 100 patients on ART (OR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90-0.99). About 10 weekly hours per 100 patients on ART were required to reduce missing data for key variables to below 10%. The median percentage of patients lost to follow-up 1 year after starting ART was 8.5% (IQR: 4.2-19.7%). Strategies to reduce loss to follow-up included outreach teams, community-based organizations and checking death registry data. Implementation of all three strategies substantially reduced losses to follow-up (OR: 0.17; 95% CI: 0.15-0.20). CONCLUSION: The quality of the data collected and the retention of patients in ART treatment programmes are unsatisfactory for many sites involved in the scale-up of ART in resource-limited settings, mainly because of insufficient staff trained to manage data and trace patients lost to follow-up.