978 resultados para Situations probabilistes


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Fault detection and isolation (FDI) are important steps in the monitoring and supervision of industrial processes. Biological wastewater treatment (WWT) plants are difficult to model, and hence to monitor, because of the complexity of the biological reactions and because plant influent and disturbances are highly variable and/or unmeasured. Multivariate statistical models have been developed for a wide variety of situations over the past few decades, proving successful in many applications. In this paper we develop a new monitoring algorithm based on Principal Components Analysis (PCA). It can be seen equivalently as making Multiscale PCA (MSPCA) adaptive, or as a multiscale decomposition of adaptive PCA. Adaptive Multiscale PCA (AdMSPCA) exploits the changing multivariate relationships between variables at different time-scales. Adaptation of scale PCA models over time permits them to follow the evolution of the process, inputs or disturbances. Performance of AdMSPCA and adaptive PCA on a real WWT data set is compared and contrasted. The most significant difference observed was the ability of AdMSPCA to adapt to a much wider range of changes. This was mainly due to the flexibility afforded by allowing each scale model to adapt whenever it did not signal an abnormal event at that scale. Relative detection speeds were examined only summarily, but seemed to depend on the characteristics of the faults/disturbances. The results of the algorithms were similar for sudden changes, but AdMSPCA appeared more sensitive to slower changes.

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This article reviews the empirical and theoretical bases for recommendations regarding lifting technique. Lifting from postures involving extreme lumbar vertebral flexion, (approximately 60degrees of lumbar flexion, characterised by absence of electromyographical activity in erector spinae) has the potential to contribute to damage to ligaments and intervertebral discs, especially if combined with lateral flexion or rotation. The only appropriate recommendation regarding posture of the lumbar spine during lifting is to avoid postures involving extreme lumbar vertebral flexion (and rotation and lateral flexion). There is no empirical basis for avoiding postures involving moderate lumbar vertebral flexion, and no justification for advocating lifting from a full squat posture. Further, lifting from semi-squat postures, involving a moderate range of flexion at both knees and trunk, allows a pattern of interjoint coordination which appears to be functional in reducing muscular effort. Lifting training is generally ineffective, and there is unlikely to be a single best technique which is appropriate in all situations. Consequently, it may be preferable to provide education in general lifting guidelines and assist lifters to discover individually appropriate postures and patterns of movement. The article concludes by presenting recommendations for lifting technique which are justified by current knowledge.

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Interactions between turbulent waters and atmosphere may lead to strong air-water mixing. This experimental study is focused on the flow down a staircase channel characterised by very strong flow aeration and turbulence. Interfacial aeration is characterised by strong air-water mixing extending down to the invert. The size of entrained bubbles and droplets extends over several orders of magnitude, and a significant number of bubble/droplet clusters was observed. Velocity and turbulence intensity measurements suggest high levels of turbulence across the entire air-water flow. The increase in turbulence levels, compared to single-phase flow situations, is proportional to the number of entrained particles. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This review considers the current literature on the macro-mineral nutrition of the soon-to-calve, or transition, dairy cow. Calcium is the main focus, since milk fever (clinical hypocalcaemia) appears to be the most common mineral-related problem faced by the transition cow Australia-wide. The importance of minimising calcium intake and optimising the balance of the key dietary electrolytes, sodium, potassium, sulfate, and chloride, in the weeks before calving is highlighted. Excess dietary potassium can, in some situations, induce milk fever, perhaps even more effectively than excess calcium. Excess sodium remains under suspicion. In contrast, excess dietary chlorine and, to a lesser extent, sulfur can improve the ability of the cow to maintain calcium homeostasis. Diets that promote either a hypomagnesaemia or hyperphosphataemia have also the potential to precipitate milk fever at calving. Current prevention strategies focus on the use of forages with moderate to low levels of calcium, potassium, and sodium, and also rely on or utilise addition of chloride and sulfate in the form of 'anionic' feeds. Anionic salts are one example of an anionic feed. However, legitimate questions remain as to the effectiveness of anionic salts in pasture-feeding systems. The causes and prevention of milk fever are considered from the perspective of the variety of Australian feedbases. Impediments to the use of anionic feeds in Australia feeding systems are outlined. The potential for improving maternal reserves of calcium around calving to reduce the risk of milk fever is also discussed.

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The choice of genotyping families vs unrelated individuals is a critical factor in any large-scale linkage disequilibrium (LD) study. The use of unrelated individuals for such studies is promising, but in contrast to family designs, unrelated samples do not facilitate detection of genotyping errors, which have been shown to be of great importance for LD and linkage studies and may be even more important in genotyping collaborations across laboratories. Here we employ some of the most commonly-used analysis methods to examine the relative accuracy of haplotype estimation using families vs unrelateds in the presence of genotyping error. The results suggest that even slight amounts of genotyping error can significantly decrease haplotype frequency and reconstruction accuracy, that the ability to detect such errors in large families is essential when the number/complexity of haplotypes is high (low LD/common alleles). In contrast, in situations of low haplotype complexity (high LD and/or many rare alleles) unrelated individuals offer such a high degree of accuracy that there is little reason for less efficient family designs. Moreover, parent-child trios, which comprise the most popular family design and the most efficient in terms of the number of founder chromosomes per genotype but which contain little information for error detection, offer little or no gain over unrelated samples in nearly all cases, and thus do not seem a useful sampling compromise between unrelated individuals and large families. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of large-scale LD mapping projects such as the proposed genome-wide haplotype map.

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Available evidence suggests that there are at least two locations for dormancy mechanisms in primary dormant seeds: mechanisms based within the embryo covering structures, and mechanisms based within the embryo. Mechanisms within the covering structures may involve mechanical, permeability and chemical barriers to germination. Mechanisms within the embryo may involve the expression of certain genes, levels of certain plant growth regulators, the activity of important respiratory pathways or the mobilisation and utilisation of food reserves. In addition, some embryos may be too immature to germinate immediately and must undergo a further growth phase before germination is possible. An individual species could have one or several of these various dormancy mechanisms and these mechanisms need to be understood when selecting treatments to overcome dormancy. The way in which certain dormancy breaking agents are thought to work is discussed and practical applications of such agents in field situations are explained.

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CULTURE is an Artificial Life simulation that aims to provide primary school children with opportunities to become actively engaged in the high-order thinking processes of problem solving and critical thinking. A preliminary evaluation of CULTURE has found that it offers the freedom for children to take part in process-oriented learning experiences. Through providing children with opportunities to make inferences, validate results, explain discoveries and analyse situations, CULTURE encourages the development of high-order thinking skills. The evaluation found that CULTURE allows users to autonomously explore the important scientific concepts of life and living, and energy and change within a software environment that children find enjoyable and easy to use.

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Data were collected in early ripening peach [Prunus persica (L.) Batsch] varieties trained to a vase system to determine if a relationship exists between fruit weight and shoot diameter. The experiment was conducted with 3 varieties at Gainesville, FL with detailed pruning and with 3 other varieties at Atapulgus, GA with minimum pruning. All the varieties were similar in fruit development period (FDP) and fruit size. The largest shoot diameter was generally found in the upper canopy in all varieties. There was no correlation between shoot diameter and fruit weight for 'TropicBeauty', 'TropicSnow' and 'UF2000' at Gainesville under detailed pruning. There was a significant (p = 0.01) correlation for 'Flordacrest' in the lower (r = 0.53) canopy and for 'White Robin' in both the upper (r = 0.38) and lower (r = 0.40) canopy at Attapulgus, GA under minimal pruning. In these situations, large stems were associated with large fruit. 'Delta', grown at Attapulgus with minimal pruning, showed no correlation between shoot diameter and fruit weight, probably because it is male sterile and produced large fruit due to a reduced crop load.

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This article develops a weighted least squares version of Levene's test of homogeneity of variance for a general design, available both for univariate and multivariate situations. When the design is balanced, the univariate and two common multivariate test statistics turn out to be proportional to the corresponding ordinary least squares test statistics obtained from an analysis of variance of the absolute values of the standardized mean-based residuals from the original analysis of the data. The constant of proportionality is simply a design-dependent multiplier (which does not necessarily tend to unity). Explicit results are presented for randomized block and Latin square designs and are illustrated for factorial treatment designs and split-plot experiments. The distribution of the univariate test statistic is close to a standard F-distribution, although it can be slightly underdispersed. For a complex design, the test assesses homogeneity of variance across blocks, treatments, or treatment factors and offers an objective interpretation of residual plot.

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Design: Randomised controlled trial of psychological debriefing. Setting: A British teaching hospital (the Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford). Patients: 66 men and 40 women, aged 17–69 years, admitted to hospital after a motor vehicle accident. Most had been the driver of a car. Median admission duration was four days for the 52 control patients and eight days for the 54 who underwent the intervention. Interventions: A debriefing of about one hour on Day 2 of admission, encouraging patients to describe the accident and express their emotions, followed by a cognitive appraisal which included describing common reactions to traumatic experiences and suggesting a range of people who might be able to assist in the future, including the patient's general practitioner. 91 patients were assessed at four months and 61 were assessed at three years. Control patients had no debriefing or counselling. Main outcome measures: Impact of Event Scale (IES, which focuses on intrusive thoughts and avoidance of similar situations to the event); Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI, a measure of 53 symptoms); and other questions related to physical pain and functional activities. Main results: At four months there was still considerable psychological morbidity among the patients who were followed up. There was a significant difference (P < 0.05) in changes of IES between the 42 who received the intervention, in whom it increased from 15 (standard deviation [SD], 15) to 16 (SD, 15), and the 49 controls, in whom it fell from 15 (SD, 12) to 13 (SD, 14). Similarly, two subscales of the BSI score changed significantly between the intervention group, among whom it deteriorated from 0.5 (SD, 0.5) to 0.6 (SD, 0.8), and the control s, in whom it hardly changed from 0.4 (SD, 0.3) to 0.4 (SD, 0.4). Among the 61 patients followed for three years, the 30 randomised to receive the intervention were significantly worse, by self-report, both psychologically and physically. Their mean IES score deteriorated from a baseline of 15 (SD, 14) to 16 (SD, 18). In comparison, scores for the 31 control patients improved from 16 (SD, 12) to 13 (SD, 17). The difference in change was significant (P < 0.05). Among all patients with high initial scores, these decreased among the controls but not among those receiving the intervention. Conclusion: Psychological counselling should only be used in the context of trials rather than routine care.

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With loss permeating the lives of all people throughout the entire life span and its potential for serious long-term deleterious effects, providing effective care for those experiencing situations of loss would be an important element of any preventive community-based mental health promotion approach. The low use of mental health services by those confronted with loss, and the lack of such services in many areas, makes it imperative to enhance the competency of the broader community to provide appropriate care during times of loss. Contributory to such care is a sound knowledge of the literature concerning loss and grieving. The broken leg analogy of grief presented in this article integrates the traditional and emerging grief theories and empirical evidence into an analogy of grieving that can be easily communicated to the general community, is relevant to many losses. and vet upholds the differing positions concerning grieving held by various schools of psychiatric thought.

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The present study utilized a social rules approach to investigate the relative influence of gender and status on managers' self-evaluations of their effectiveness in handling a dominating subordinate. In the first study 84 White middle-class participants identified the prescriptive and proscriptive rules for socially appropriate responding to a stimulus situation involving a pushy subordinate. Four rule sets were identified for female and male managers and subordinates, respectively. Rule-sets shared a number of common rules and showed some variation according to gender roles. In the second study, 91 White middle-class participants rated the individual rules for importance and also rated their personal and managerial effectiveness when responding to the stimulus situation using gender- and status-consistent and gender-and status-inconsistent response strategies. Both men and women rated the female gender and status- consistent strategy as most effective, and rated the status-inconsistent strategy as less effective than a gender-inconsistent response. Results were interpreted as providing more support for a situational gender-related theory of workplace behavior, rather than a traditional gender role perspective.

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Free independent travelers require flexible, reactive service delivery due to their regularly changing location and activities and the lack of a wired Internet connection. A ubiquitous travel service delivery system that is able to dynamically deliver services in response to relevant events, such as changing location, availability of new last-minute specials, work opportunities, and safety issues can provide added value while retaining the flexibility that is so important to independent travelers. This article describes such a system. An engineering design research approach has been adopted to design the system. Issues addressed include traveler and service states and events, contexts, situations, and situation-action rules. An architecture is proposed that is based on distributed, cooperating software agents and mobile data technologies. The role of these agents is to continuously monitor situations that are occurring in the physical and virtual service spaces and to take the required action for any situations that are relevant to the traveler.

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Many older adults with hearing impairment continue to have substantial communication difficulties after being fitted with hearing aids, and many do not choose to wear hearing aids. Two group communication education programs aimed at such older people are described. The 'Keep on Talking' program has a health promotion focus, and is aimed at maintaining communication for older adults living in the community. An experimental group (n=120) attended the program, and a control group (n=130) received a communication assessment but no intervention. Significant improvements were found in the experimental participants in terms of knowledge about communication changes with age and about strategies to maintain communication skills. At the follow-up evaluation at 1 year, 45% of the experimental group, compared to 10% of the control group, had acted to improve their communication skills. The 'Active Communication Education' program focuses on the development of problem-solving strategies to improve communication in everyday life situations. Preliminary outcomes have been assessed on a small scale (n=14) to date. It is concluded that communication programs represent an important adjunct to, or supplement for, the traditional approach that focuses on hearing aid fitting.

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Water wetting is a crucial issue in carbon dioxide (CO.) corrosion of multiphase flow pipelines made from mild steel. This study demonstrates the use of a novel benchtop apparatus, a horizontal rotating cylinder, to study the effect of water wetting on CO2 corrosion of mild steel in two-phase flow. The setup is similar to a standard rotating cylinder except for its horizontal orientation and the presence of two phases-typically water and oil. The apparatus has been tested by using mass-transfer measurements and CO2 corrosion measurements in single-phase water flow. CO2 corrosion measurements were subsequently performed using a water/hexane mixture with water cuts varying between 5% and 50%. While the metal surface was primarily hydrophilic under stagnant. conditions, a variety of dynamic water wetting situations was encountered as the water cut and fluid velocity were altered. Threshold velocities were identified at various water cuts when the surface became oil-wet and corrosion stopped.