Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

Simulation and optimization of IGCC technique for power generation and hydrogen production by using lignite Thar coal and cotton stalk

The purpose of this study was to simulate and to optimize integrated gasification for combine cycle (IGCC) for power generation and hydrogen (H2) production by using low grade Thar lignite coal and cotton stalk. Lignite coal is abundant of moisture and ash content, the idea of addition of cotton stalk is to increase the mass of combustible material per mass of feed use for the process, to reduce the consumption of coal and to increase the cotton stalk efficiently for IGCC process. Aspen plus software is used to simulate the process with different mass ratios of coal to cotton stalk and for optimization: process efficiencies, net power generation and H2 production etc. are considered while environmental hazard emissions are optimized to acceptance level. With the addition of cotton stalk in feed, process efficiencies started to decline along with the net power production. But for H2 production, it gave positive result at start but after 40% cotton stalk addition, H2 production also started to decline. It also affects negatively on environmental hazard emissions and mass of emissions/ net power production increases linearly with the addition of cotton stalk in feed mixture. In summation with the addition of cotton stalk, overall affects seemed to negative. But the effect is more negative after 40% cotton stalk addition so it is concluded that to get maximum process efficiencies and high production less amount of cotton stalk addition in feed is preferable and the maximum level of addition is estimated to 40%. Gasification temperature should keep lower around 1140 °C and prefer technique for studied feed in IGCC is fluidized bed (ash in dry form) rather than ash slagging gasifier

Simulation and optimization tools in paper machine concept design

The last decade has shown that the global paper industry needs new processes and products in order to reassert its position in the industry. As the paper markets in Western Europe and North America have stabilized, the competition has tightened. Along with the development of more cost-effective processes and products, new process design methods are also required to break the old molds and create new ideas. This thesis discusses the development of a process design methodology based on simulation and optimization methods. A bi-level optimization problem and a solution procedure for it are formulated and illustrated. Computational models and simulation are used to illustrate the phenomena inside a real process and mathematical optimization is exploited to find out the best process structures and control principles for the process. Dynamic process models are used inside the bi-level optimization problem, which is assumed to be dynamic and multiobjective due to the nature of papermaking processes. The numerical experiments show that the bi-level optimization approach is useful for different kinds of problems related to process design and optimization. Here, the design methodology is applied to a constrained process area of a papermaking line. However, the same methodology is applicable to all types of industrial processes, e.g., the design of biorefiners, because the methodology is totally generalized and can be easily modified.

Endovascular treatment of popliteal artery aneurysm. Early and midterm results

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate the efficacy of endovascular repair of popliteal artery aneurysms on maintaining patency of the stent in the short and medium term. METHODS: this was a retrospective, descriptive and analytical study, conducted at the Integrated Vascular Surgery Service at the Hospital da Beneficência Portuguesa de São Paulo. We followed-up 15 patients with popliteal aneurysm, totaling 18 limbs, treated with stent from May 2008 to December 2012. RESULTS: the mean follow-up was 14.8 months. During this period, 61.1% of the stents were patent. The average aneurysm diameter was 2.5cm, ranging from 1.1 to 4.5cm. The average length was 5cm, ranging from 1.5 to 10 cm. In eight cases (47.1%), the lesion crossed the joint line, and in four of these occlusion of the prosthesis occurred. In 66.7% of cases, treatment was elective and only 33.3% were symptomatic patients treated on an emergency basis. The stents used were Viabahn (Gore) in 12 cases (66.7%), Fluency (Bard) in three cases (16.7%), Multilayer (Cardiatis) in two cases (11.1%) and Hemobahn (Gore) in one case (5.6%). In three cases, there was early occlusion (16.6%). During follow-up, 88.2% of patients maintained antiplatelet therapy. There was no leakage at ultrasound (endoleak). No fracture was observed in the stents. CONCLUSION: the results of this study are similar to other published series. Probably, with the development of new devices that support the mechanical characteristics found on the thighs, there will be improved performance and prognosis of endovascular restoration.

Do induced twin pregnancies influence the obstetric and neonatal results of multiple births born before 32 weeks? Comparison to spontaneous gestation

PURPOSE: To compare obstetric outcomes of induced preterm twin births (under 32 weeks gestation) with those spontaneously conceived. METHODS: Prospective study of twin pregnancies (25 induced and 157 spontaneously conceived) developed over a period of 16 years in a tertiary obstetric center. Demographic factors, obstetric complications, gestational age at delivery, mode of delivery, birth weight and immediate newborn outcome were compared. RESULTS: The analysis of obstetrical complications concerning urinary or other infections, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, gestational diabetes, fetal malformations, intrauterine fetal death, intrauterine growth restriction and intrauterine discordant growth reveal no significant statistical differences between the two groups. First trimester bleeding was higher in the induced group (24 versus 8.3%, p=0.029). The cesarean delivery rate was 52.2% in spontaneous gestations and 64% in induced gestations. Gestational age at delivery, birth weight, Apgar scores at first and fifth minutes, admissions to Neonatal Intensive Care Unit and puerperal complications show no statistically significant differences between the two groups. These results were independent of chorionicity and induction method. CONCLUSION: The mode of conception did not influence obstetric and neonatal outcomes. Although induced pregnancies have higher risk of first trimester bleeding, significant differences were not observed regarding other obstetric and puerperal complications and neonatal results.

Adherence and experimental infection of bacteria associated with periodontal infections of young cattle in Brazil ("Cara inchada")

In vitro- and in vivo-assays were conducted, to study the possible role of streptomycin- and actinomycin-producing soil actinomycetes for the pathogenesis of "Cara inchada" in cattle (CI). Adherence of Bacteroides spp. to epithelial cells of the bovine gingiva, known to be associated with the progressive lesions of CI, was significantly increased by the addition of streptomycin, actinomycin or antibiotic culture supernatants of the soil actinomycetes. Applications of these mixtures together with Actinomyces pyogenes to the marginal gingiva of the upper premolar teeth of about 1 month old Holstein Friesian calves did not lead to progressive lesions of CI. Only one calf exhibited a slight diarrhea and a temporary retraction of the gingiva at the site of application.

Accidental and experimental salinomycin poisoning in rabbits

An outbreak of salinomycin poisoning in rabbits is described. At least 27 out of 2,000 rabbits reared on a farm died after the coccidiostatic drug sulfaquinoxaline was substituted by salinomycin in the feed. An average of 26.9ppm salinomycin was detected in the ration given to the rabbits. Clinical signs included anorexia, apathy and bradykinesia, which progressed to incoordination and recumbency. Gross lesions consisted of pale areas in the skeletal muscles. The histopathological findings showed severe necrotic degenerative myopathy in association with infiltration of neutrophils and macrophages. One rabbit exhibited similar alterations in the myocardium. Mineralization was observed in the affected skeletal muscles in some cases. In order to verify if the poisoning was due to salinomycin, 20 rabbits were divided into five groups and a ration containing the drug at doses of 10, 25, 50, 75 and 100ppm was given. The administration of doses higher than 50ppm resulted in manifestation of the clinical signs seen in the outbreak of poisoning. It was concluded, that probably an error related to the mixture of salinomycin in the feed was the cause of deaths in the spontaneous outbreak of poisoning on the rabbit farm.

Power semiconductor nonlinearities in active du/dt output filtering

This doctoral thesis introduces an improved control principle for active du/dt output filtering in variable-speed AC drives, together with performance comparisons with previous filtering methods. The effects of power semiconductor nonlinearities on the output filtering performance are investigated. The nonlinearities include the timing deviation and the voltage pulse waveform distortion in the variable-speed AC drive output bridge. Active du/dt output filtering (ADUDT) is a method to mitigate motor overvoltages in variable-speed AC drives with long motor cables. It is a quite recent addition to the du/dt reduction methods available. This thesis improves on the existing control method for the filter, and concentrates on the lowvoltage (below 1 kV AC) two-level voltage-source inverter implementation of the method. The ADUDT uses narrow voltage pulses having a duration in the order of a microsecond from an IGBT (insulated gate bipolar transistor) inverter to control the output voltage of a tuned LC filter circuit. The filter output voltage has thus increased slope transition times at the rising and falling edges, with an opportunity of no overshoot. The effect of the longer slope transition times is a reduction in the du/dt of the voltage fed to the motor cable. Lower du/dt values result in a reduction in the overvoltage effects on the motor terminals. Compared with traditional output filtering methods to accomplish this task, the active du/dt filtering provides lower inductance values and a smaller physical size of the filter itself. The filter circuit weight can also be reduced. However, the power semiconductor nonlinearities skew the filter control pulse pattern, resulting in control deviation. This deviation introduces unwanted overshoot and resonance in the filter. The controlmethod proposed in this thesis is able to directly compensate for the dead time-induced zero-current clamping (ZCC) effect in the pulse pattern. It gives more flexibility to the pattern structure, which could help in the timing deviation compensation design. Previous studies have shown that when a motor load current flows in the filter circuit and the inverter, the phase leg blanking times distort the voltage pulse sequence fed to the filter input. These blanking times are caused by excessively large dead time values between the IGBT control pulses. Moreover, the various switching timing distortions, present in realworld electronics when operating with a microsecond timescale, bring additional skew to the control. Left uncompensated, this results in distortion of the filter input voltage and a filter self-induced overvoltage in the form of an overshoot. This overshoot adds to the voltage appearing at the motor terminals, thus increasing the transient voltage amplitude at the motor. This doctoral thesis investigates the magnitude of such timing deviation effects. If the motor load current is left uncompensated in the control, the filter output voltage can overshoot up to double the input voltage amplitude. IGBT nonlinearities were observed to cause a smaller overshoot, in the order of 30%. This thesis introduces an improved ADUDT control method that is able to compensate for phase leg blanking times, giving flexibility to the pulse pattern structure and dead times. The control method is still sensitive to timing deviations, and their effect is investigated. A simple approach of using a fixed delay compensation value was tried in the test setup measurements. The ADUDT method with the new control algorithm was found to work in an actual motor drive application. Judging by the simulation results, with the delay compensation, the method should ultimately enable an output voltage performance and a du/dt reduction that are free from residual overshoot effects. The proposed control algorithm is not strictly required for successful ADUDT operation: It is possible to precalculate the pulse patterns by iteration and then for instance store them into a look-up table inside the control electronics. Rather, the newly developed control method is a mathematical tool for solving the ADUDT control pulses. It does not contain the timing deviation compensation (from the logic-level command to the phase leg output voltage), and as such is not able to remove the timing deviation effects that cause error and overshoot in the filter. When the timing deviation compensation has to be tuned-in in the control pattern, the precalculated iteration method could prove simpler and equally good (or even better) compared with the mathematical solution with a separate timing compensation module. One of the key findings in this thesis is the conclusion that the correctness of the pulse pattern structure, in the sense of ZCC and predicted pulse timings, cannot be separated from the timing deviations. The usefulness of the correctly calculated pattern is reduced by the voltage edge timing errors. The doctoral thesis provides an introductory background chapter on variable-speed AC drives and the problem of motor overvoltages and takes a look at traditional solutions for overvoltage mitigation. Previous results related to the active du/dt filtering are discussed. The basic operation principle and design of the filter have been studied previously. The effect of load current in the filter and the basic idea of compensation have been presented in the past. However, there was no direct way of including the dead time in the control (except for solving the pulse pattern manually by iteration), and the magnitude of nonlinearity effects had not been investigated. The enhanced control principle with the dead time handling capability and a case study of the test setup timing deviations are the main contributions of this doctoral thesis. The simulation and experimental setup results show that the proposed control method can be used in an actual drive. Loss measurements and a comparison of active du/dt output filtering with traditional output filtering methods are also presented in the work. Two different ADUDT filter designs are included, with ferrite core and air core inductors. Other filters included in the tests were a passive du/dtfilter and a passive sine filter. The loss measurements incorporated a silicon carbide diode-equipped IGBT module, and the results show lower losses with these new device technologies. The new control principle was measured in a 43 A load current motor drive system and was able to bring the filter output peak voltage from 980 V (the previous control principle) down to 680 V in a 540 V average DC link voltage variable-speed drive. A 200 m motor cable was used, and the filter losses for the active du/dt methods were 111W–126 W versus 184 W for the passive du/dt. In terms of inverter and filter losses, the active du/dt filtering method had a 1.82-fold increase in losses compared with an all-passive traditional du/dt output filter. The filter mass with the active du/dt method was 17% (2.4 kg, air-core inductors) compared with 14 kg of the passive du/dt method filter. Silicon carbide freewheeling diodes were found to reduce the inverter losses in the active du/dt filtering by 18% compared with the same IGBT module with silicon diodes. For a 200 m cable length, the average peak voltage at the motor terminals was 1050 V with no filter, 960 V for the all-passive du/dt filter, and 700 V for the active du/dt filtering applying the new control principle.

Working fluid selection and design of small-scale waste heat recovery systems based on organic Rankine cycles

Demand for the use of energy systems, entailing high efficiency as well as availability to harness renewable energy sources, is a key issue in order to tackling the threat of global warming and saving natural resources. Organic Rankine cycle (ORC) technology has been identified as one of the most promising technologies in recovering low-grade heat sources and in harnessing renewable energy sources that cannot be efficiently utilized by means of more conventional power systems. The ORC is based on the working principle of Rankine process, but an organic working fluid is adopted in the cycle instead of steam. This thesis presents numerical and experimental results of the study on the design of small-scale ORCs. Two main applications were selected for the thesis: waste heat re- covery from small-scale diesel engines concentrating on the utilization of the exhaust gas heat and waste heat recovery in large industrial-scale engine power plants considering the utilization of both the high and low temperature heat sources. The main objective of this work was to identify suitable working fluid candidates and to study the process and turbine design methods that can be applied when power plants based on the use of non-conventional working fluids are considered. The computational work included the use of thermodynamic analysis methods and turbine design methods that were based on the use of highly accurate fluid properties. In addition, the design and loss mechanisms in supersonic ORC turbines were studied by means of computational fluid dynamics. The results indicated that the design of ORC is highly influenced by the selection of the working fluid and cycle operational conditions. The results for the turbine designs in- dicated that the working fluid selection should not be based only on the thermodynamic analysis, but requires also considerations on the turbine design. The turbines tend to be fast rotating, entailing small blade heights at the turbine rotor inlet and highly supersonic flow in the turbine flow passages, especially when power systems with low power outputs are designed. The results indicated that the ORC is a potential solution in utilizing waste heat streams both at high and low temperatures and both in micro and larger scale appli- cations.

Prediction of exposed domains of envelope glycoprotein in Indian HIV-1 isolates and experimental confirmation of their immunogenicity in humans

We describe the impact of subtype differences on the seroreactivity of linear antigenic epitopes in envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 isolates from different geographical locations. By computer analysis, we predicted potential antigenic sites of envelope glycoprotein (gp120 and gp4l) of this virus. For this purpose, after fetching sequences of proteins of interest from data banks, values of hydrophilicity, flexibility, accessibility, inverted hydrophobicity, and secondary structure were considered. We identified several potential antigenic epitopes in a B subtype strain of envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 (IIIB). Solid- phase peptide synthesis methods of Merrifield and Fmoc chemistry were used for synthesizing peptides. These synthetic peptides corresponded mainly to the C2, V3 and CD4 binding sites of gp120 and some parts of the ectodomain of gp41. The reactivity of these peptides was tested by ELISA against different HIV-1-positive sera from different locations in India. For two of these predicted epitopes, the corresponding Indian consensus sequences (LAIERYLKQQLLGWG and DIIGDIRQAHCNISEDKWNET) (subtype C) were also synthesized and their reactivity was tested by ELISA. These peptides also distinguished HIV-1-positive sera of Indians with C subtype infections from sera from HIV-negative subjects.

Measuring Shared Value: How to Unlock Value by Linking Social and Business Results

Competitividad y valor compartido

Thermodynamic properties and Debye-Waller factor of fee materials

We have calculated the equation of state and the various thermodynamic properties of monatomic fcc crystals by minimizing the Helmholtz free energy derived in the high temperature limit for the quasiharmonic theory, QH, and the lowest-order (cubic and quartic), 'A2, anharmonic terms of the perturbation theory, PT. The total energy in each case is obtained by adding the static energy. The calculation of the thermal properties was carried out for a nearest-neighbour central-force model of the fcc lattice by means of the appropriate thermodynamic relations. We have calculated the lattice constant, the thermal expansion, the coefficient of volume expansion, the specific heat at constant volume and at constant pressure, the isothermal and adiabatic bulk moduli, and the Griineisen parameter, for the rare-gas solids Kr and Xe, and gold. Morse potential and modified Morse potential were each used to represent the atomic interaction for the three fcc materials. For most of the calculated thermodynamic properties from the QH theory, the results for Kr and Xe with the modified Morse potential show an improvement over the results for the Morse potential when compared with the experimental data. However, the results of the 'A 2 equation of state with the modified Morse potential are in good agreement with experiment only in the case of the specific heat at constant volume and at constant pressure. For Au we have calculated the lattice contribution from the QH and 'A 2 PT and the electronic contribution to the thermal properties. The electronic contribution was taken into account by using the free electron model. The results of the thermodynamic properties calculated with the modified Morse potential were similar to those obtained with the Morse potential. U sing the minimized equation of state we also calculated the Mossbauer recoilless fraction for Kr and Xe and the Debye-Waller factor (DWF) for Pb, AI, eu, Ag, and Au. The Mossbauer recoilless fraction was obtained for the above two potentials and Lennard-Jones potential. The L-J potential gives the best agreement with experiment for Kr. No experimental data exists for Xe. At low temperature the calculated DWF results for Pb, AI, and eu show a good agreement with experimental values, but at high temperature the experimental DWF results increase very rapidly. For Ag the computed values were below the expected results at all temperatures. The DWF results of the modified Morse potential for Pb, AI, eu and Ag were slightly better than those of the Morse potential. In the case of Au the calculated values were in poor agreement with experimental results. We have calculated the quasiharmonic phonon dispersion curves for Kr, Xe, eu, Ag, and Au. The calculated and experimental results of the frequencies agree quite well for all the materials except for Au where the longitudinal modes show serious discrepancies with the experimental results. In addition, the two lowest-order anharmonic contributions to the phonon frequency were derived using the Green's function method. The A 2 phonon dispersion curves have been calculated only for eu, and the results were similar to those of the QH dispersion curves. Finally, an expression for the Griineisen parameter "( has been derived from the anharmonic frequencies, and calculated for these materials. The "( results are comparable with those obtained from the thermodynamic definition.