985 resultados para STOCHASTIC MODELING


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Draglines are extremely large machines that are widely used in open-cut coal mines for overburden stripping. Since 1994 we have been working toward the development of a computer control system capable of automatically driving a dragline for a large portion of its operating cycle. This has necessitated the development and experimental evaluation of sensor systems, machines models, closed-loop control controllers, and an operator interface. This paper describes our steps toward the goal through scale-model and full-scale field experimentation.

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Power line inspection is a vital function for electricity supply companies but it involves labor-intensive and expensive procedures which are tedious and error-prone for humans to perform. A possible solution is to use an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with video surveillance equipment to perform the inspection. This paper considers how a small, electrically driven rotorcraft conceived for this application could be controlled by visually tracking the overhead supply lines. A dynamic model for a ducted-fan rotorcraft is presented and used to control the action of an Air Vehicle Simulator (AVS), consisting of a cable-array robot. Results show how visual data can be used to determine, and hence regulate in closed loop, the simulated vehicle’s position relative to the overhead lines.

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Having a clear project definition is crucial for successful construction projects. It affects design quality, project communication between stakeholders and final project performance in terms of cost, schedule and quality. This study examines the relationship between project definition and final project performance through a structural equation model comprising 4 latent constructs and 6 path hypotheses using data from a questionnaire survey of 120 general contractors in the Malaysian construction industry. The results show that in the study population, all three items impact the project performance, but the link between design quality and project performance is indirect. Instead, the clarity of project definition affects project performance indirectly through design quality and project communication and design quality affects project performance indirectly through project communication. The primary contribution is to provide quantitative confirmation of the more general statements made in the literature from around the world and therefore adds to and consolidates existing knowledge. Practical implications derived from the finding are also proposed for various project stakeholders. Furthermore, as lack of the clarity of project definition is a very common occurrence in construction projects globally, these findings have important ramifications for all construction projects in expanding and clarifying existing knowledge on what is needed for the successful delivery of construction projects.

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Extreme wind events such as tropical cyclones, tornadoes and storms are more likely to impact the Australian coastal regions due to possible climate changes. Such events can be extremely destructive to building structures, in particular, low-rise buildings with lightweight roofing systems that are commonly made of thin steel roofing sheets and battens. Large wind uplift loads that act on the roofs during high wind events often cause premature roof connection failures. Recent wind damage investigations have shown that roof failures have mostly occurred at the batten to rafter or truss screw connections. In most of these cases, the screw fastener heads pulled through the bottom flanges of thin steel roof battens. This roof connection failure is very critical as both roofing sheets and battens will be lost during the high wind events. Hence, a research study was conducted to investigate this critical pull-through failure using both experimental and numerical methods. This paper presents the details of numerical modeling and the results.

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This paper presents an uncertainty quantification study of the performance analysis of the high pressure ratio single stage radial-inflow turbine used in the Sundstrand Power Systems T-100 Multi-purpose Small Power Unit. A deterministic 3D volume-averaged Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver is coupled with a non-statistical generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) representation based on a pseudo-spectral projection method. One of the advantages of this approach is that it does not require any modification of the CFD code for the propagation of random disturbances in the aerodynamic and geometric fields. The stochastic results highlight the importance of the blade thickness and trailing edge tip radius on the total-to-static efficiency of the turbine compared to the angular velocity and trailing edge tip length. From a theoretical point of view, the use of the gPC representation on an arbitrary grid also allows the investigation of the sensitivity of the blade thickness profiles on the turbine efficiency. The gPC approach is also applied to coupled random parameters. The results show that the most influential coupled random variables are trailing edge tip radius coupled with the angular velocity.

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Despite substantial progress in measuring the 3D profile of anatomical variations in the human brain, their genetic and environmental causes remain enigmatic. We developed an automated system to identify and map genetic and environmental effects on brain structure in large brain MRI databases . We applied our multi-template segmentation approach ("Multi-Atlas Fluid Image Alignment") to fluidly propagate hand-labeled parameterized surface meshes into 116 scans of twins (60 identical, 56 fraternal), labeling the lateral ventricles. Mesh surfaces were averaged within subjects to minimize segmentation error. We fitted quantitative genetic models at each of 30,000 surface points to measure the proportion of shape variance attributable to (1) genetic differences among subjects, (2) environmental influences unique to each individual, and (3) shared environmental effects. Surface-based statistical maps revealed 3D heritability patterns, and their significance, with and without adjustments for global brain scale. These maps visualized detailed profiles of environmental versus genetic influences on the brain, extending genetic models to spatially detailed, automatically computed, 3D maps.

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This work describes the development of a model of cerebral atrophic changes associated with the progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Linear registration, region-of-interest analysis, and voxel-based morphometry methods have all been employed to elucidate the changes observed at discrete intervals during a disease process. In addition to describing the nature of the changes, modeling disease-related changes via deformations can also provide information on temporal characteristics. In order to continuously model changes associated with AD, deformation maps from 21 patients were averaged across a novel z-score disease progression dimension based on Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores. The resulting deformation maps are presented via three metrics: local volume loss (atrophy), volume (CSF) increase, and translation (interpreted as representing collapse of cortical structures). Inspection of the maps revealed significant perturbations in the deformation fields corresponding to the entorhinal cortex (EC) and hippocampus, orbitofrontal and parietal cortex, and regions surrounding the sulci and ventricular spaces, with earlier changes predominantly lateralized to the left hemisphere. These changes are consistent with results from post-mortem studies of AD.

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The hemodynamic response function (HRF) describes the local response of brain vasculature to functional activation. Accurate HRF modeling enables the investigation of cerebral blood flow regulation and improves our ability to interpret fMRI results. Block designs have been used extensively as fMRI paradigms because detection power is maximized; however, block designs are not optimal for HRF parameter estimation. Here we assessed the utility of block design fMRI data for HRF modeling. The trueness (relative deviation), precision (relative uncertainty), and identifiability (goodness-of-fit) of different HRF models were examined and test-retest reproducibility of HRF parameter estimates was assessed using computer simulations and fMRI data from 82 healthy young adult twins acquired on two occasions 3 to 4 months apart. The effects of systematically varying attributes of the block design paradigm were also examined. In our comparison of five HRF models, the model comprising the sum of two gamma functions with six free parameters had greatest parameter accuracy and identifiability. Hemodynamic response function height and time to peak were highly reproducible between studies and width was moderately reproducible but the reproducibility of onset time was low. This study established the feasibility and test-retest reliability of estimating HRF parameters using data from block design fMRI studies.

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Broad knowledge is required when a business process is modeled by a business analyst. We argue that existing Business Process Management methodologies do not consider business goals at the appropriate level. In this paper we present an approach to integrate business goals and business process models. We design a Business Goal Ontology for modeling business goals. Furthermore, we devise a modeling pattern for linking the goals to process models and show how the ontology can be used in query answering. In this way, we integrate the intentional perspective into our business process ontology framework, enriching the process description and enabling new types of business process analysis. © 2008 IEEE.

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Modelling fluvial processes is an effective way to reproduce basin evolution and to recreate riverbed morphology. However, due to the complexity of alluvial environments, deterministic modelling of fluvial processes is often impossible. To address the related uncertainties, we derive a stochastic fluvial process model on the basis of the convective Exner equation that uses the statistics (mean and variance) of river velocity as input parameters. These statistics allow for quantifying the uncertainty in riverbed topography, river discharge and position of the river channel. In order to couple the velocity statistics and the fluvial process model, the perturbation method is employed with a non-stationary spectral approach to develop the Exner equation as two separate equations: the first one is the mean equation, which yields the mean sediment thickness, and the second one is the perturbation equation, which yields the variance of sediment thickness. The resulting solutions offer an effective tool to characterize alluvial aquifers resulting from fluvial processes, which allows incorporating the stochasticity of the paleoflow velocity.

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In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the tau-leaping framework to past information. Using the theta-trapezoidal tau-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k >= 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

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This paper proposes an analytical Incident Traffic Management framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing. The proposed framework incorporates an econometric incident duration model and a traffic re-routing optimization module. The incident duration model is used to estimate the expected duration of the incident and thus determine the planning horizon for the re-routing module. The re-routing module is a CTM-based Single Destination System Optimal Dynamic Traffic Assignment model that generates optimal real-time strategies of re-routing freeway traffic to its adjacent arterial network during incidents. The proposed framework has been applied to a case study network including a freeway and its adjacent arterial network in South East Queensland, Australia. The results from different scenarios of freeway demand and incident blockage extent have been analyzed and advantages of the proposed framework are demonstrated.

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The major diabetes autoantigen, glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD65), contains a region of sequence similarity, including six identical residues PEVKEK, to the P2C protein of coxsackie B virus, suggesting that cross-reactivity between coxsackie B virus and GAD65 can initiate autoimmune diabetes. We used the human islet cell mAbs MICA3 and MICA4 to identify the Ab epitopes of GAD65 by screening phage-displayed random peptide libraries. The identified peptide sequences could be mapped to a homology model of the pyridoxal phosphate (PLP) binding domain of GAD65. For MICA3, a surface loop containing the sequence PEVKEK and two adjacent exposed helixes were identified in the PLP binding domain as well as a region of the C terminus of GAD65 that has previously been identified as critical for MICA3 binding. To confirm that the loop containing tile PEVKEK sequence contributes to the MICA3 epitope, this loop was deleted by mutagenesis. This reduced binding of MICA3 by 70%. Peptide sequences selected using MICA4 were rich in basic or hydroxyl-containing amino acids, and the surface of the GAD65 PLP-binding domain surrounding Lys358, which is known to be critical for MICA4 binding, was likewise rich in these amino acids. Also, the two phage most reactive width MICA4 encoded the motif VALxG, and the reverse of this sequence, LAV, was located in this same region. Thus, we have defined the MICA3 and MICA4 epitopes on GAD65 using the combination of phage display, molecular modeling, and mutagenesis and have provided compelling evidence for the involvement of the PEVKEK loop in the MICA3 epitope.

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The construction industry is a knowledge-based industry where various actors with diverse expertise create unique information within different phases of a project. The industry has been criticized by researchers and practitioners as being unable to apply newly created knowledge effectively to innovate. The fragmented nature of the construction industry reduces the opportunity of project participants to learn from each other and absorb knowledge. Building Information Modelling (BIM), referring to digital representations of constructed facilities, is a promising technological advance that has been proposed to assist in the sharing of knowledge and creation of linkages between firms. Previous studies have mainly focused on the technical attributes of BIM and there is little evidence on its capability to enhance learning in construction firms. This conceptual paper identifies six ‘functional attributes’ of BIM that act as triggers to stimulate learning: (1) comprehensibility; (2) predictability; (3) accuracy; (4) transparency; (5) mutual understanding and; (6) integration.

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Over the last 30 years, numerous research groups have attempted to provide mathematical descriptions of the skin wound healing process. The development of theoretical models of the interlinked processes that underlie the healing mechanism has yielded considerable insight into aspects of this critical phenomenon that remain difficult to investigate empirically. In particular, the mathematical modeling of angiogenesis, i.e., capillary sprout growth, has offered new paradigms for the understanding of this highly complex and crucial step in the healing pathway. With the recent advances in imaging and cell tracking, the time is now ripe for an appraisal of the utility and importance of mathematical modeling in wound healing angiogenesis research. The purpose of this review is to pedagogically elucidate the conceptual principles that have underpinned the development of mathematical descriptions of wound healing angiogenesis, specifically those that have utilized a continuum reaction-transport framework, and highlight the contribution that such models have made toward the advancement of research in this field. We aim to draw attention to the common assumptions made when developing models of this nature, thereby bringing into focus the advantages and limitations of this approach. A deeper integration of mathematical modeling techniques into the practice of wound healing angiogenesis research promises new perspectives for advancing our knowledge in this area. To this end we detail several open problems related to the understanding of wound healing angiogenesis, and outline how these issues could be addressed through closer cross-disciplinary collaboration.