A data-dependent skeleton estimate and a scale-sensitive dimension for classification

The classical binary classification problem is investigatedwhen it is known in advance that the posterior probability function(or regression function) belongs to some class of functions. We introduceand analyze a method which effectively exploits this knowledge. The methodis based on minimizing the empirical risk over a carefully selected``skeleton'' of the class of regression functions. The skeleton is acovering of the class based on a data--dependent metric, especiallyfitted for classification. A new scale--sensitive dimension isintroduced which is more useful for the studied classification problemthan other, previously defined, dimension measures. This fact isdemonstrated by performance bounds for the skeleton estimate in termsof the new dimension.

Sign of the Times, May 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Sign of the Times, June 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Sign of the Times, January 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Sign of the Times, March 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Sign of the Times, April 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Sign of the Times, February 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Sign of the Times, April 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Sign of the Times, July 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Which is the optimal sampling strategy for habitat suitability modelling

Designing an efficient sampling strategy is of crucial importance for habitat suitability modelling. This paper compares four such strategies, namely, 'random', 'regular', 'proportional-stratified' and 'equal -stratified'- to investigate (1) how they affect prediction accuracy and (2) how sensitive they are to sample size. In order to compare them, a virtual species approach (Ecol. Model. 145 (2001) 111) in a real landscape, based on reliable data, was chosen. The distribution of the virtual species was sampled 300 times using each of the four strategies in four sample sizes. The sampled data were then fed into a GLM to make two types of prediction: (1) habitat suitability and (2) presence/ absence. Comparing the predictions to the known distribution of the virtual species allows model accuracy to be assessed. Habitat suitability predictions were assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficient and presence/absence predictions by Cohen's K agreement coefficient. The results show the 'regular' and 'equal-stratified' sampling strategies to be the most accurate and most robust. We propose the following characteristics to improve sample design: (1) increase sample size, (2) prefer systematic to random sampling and (3) include environmental information in the design'

Sign of the Times, August 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and lowspreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising theirdeficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was reallocatedfrom the private to the public sectors, reducing investment and deepening the recessions evenfurther. To account for these facts, we propose a simple model of sovereign risk in which debtcan be traded in secondary markets. The model has two key ingredients: creditor discriminationand crowding-out effects. Creditor discrimination arises because, in turbulent times, sovereigndebt offers a higher expected return to domestic creditors than to foreign ones. This providesincentives for domestic purchases of debt. Crowding-out effects arise because private borrowingis limited by financial frictions. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productiveinvestment. The model shows that these purchases reduce growth and welfare, and may lead toself-fulfilling crises. It also shows how crowding-out effects can be transmitted to other countriesin the Eurozone, and how they may be addressed by policies at the European level.

Sign of the Times, September 2009

Newsletter produced by Deaf Services Commission of Iowa

Synchronous and baroceptor-sensitive oscillations in skin microcirculation: evidence for central autonomic control.

To determine whether skin blood flow is local or takes part in general regulatory mechanisms, we recorded laser-Doppler flowmetry (LDF; left and right index fingers), blood pressure, muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA), R-R interval, and respiration in 10 healthy volunteers and 3 subjects after sympathectomy. We evaluated 1) the synchronism of LDF fluctuations in two index fingers, 2) the relationship with autonomically mediated fluctuations in other signals, and 3) the LDF ability to respond to arterial baroreflex stimulation (by neck suction at frequencies from 0.02 to 0.20 Hz), using spectral analysis (autoregressive uni- and bivariate, time-variant algorithms). Synchronous LDF fluctuations were observed in the index fingers of healthy subjects but not in sympathectomized patients. LDF fluctuations were coherent with those obtained for blood pressure, MSNA, and R-R interval. LDF fluctuations were leading blood pressure in the low-frequency (LF; 0.1 Hz) band and lagging in the respiratory, high-frequency (HF; approximately 0.25 Hz) band, suggesting passive "downstream" transmission only for HF and "upstream" transmission for LF from the microvessels. LDF fluctuations were responsive to sinusoidal neck suction up to 0.1 Hz, indicating response to sympathetic modulation. Skin blood flow thus reflects modifications determined by autonomic activity, detectable by frequency analysis of spontaneous fluctuations.

Nuclear scaffold proteins are differently sensitive to stabilizing treatment by heat or Cu++.

The distribution of three nuclear scaffold proteins (of which one is a component of a particular class of nuclear bodies) has been studied in intact K562 human erythroleukemia cells, isolated nuclei, and nuclear scaffolds. Nuclear scaffolds were obtained by extraction with the ionic detergent lithium diidosalicylate (LIS), using nuclei prepared in the absence of divalent cations (metal-depleted nuclei) and stabilized either by a brief heat exposure (20 min at 37C or 42C) or by Cu++ ions at 0C. Proteins were visualized by in situ immunocytochemistry and confocal microscopy. Only a 160-kD nuclear scaffold protein was unaffected by all the stabilization procedures performed on isolated nuclei. However, LIS extraction and scaffold preparation procedures markedly modified the distribution of the polypeptide seen in intact cells, unless stabilization had been performed by Cu++. In isolated nuclei, only Cu++ treatment preserved the original distribution of the two other antigens (M(r), 125 and 126 kD), whereas in heat-stabilized nuclei we detected dramatic changes. In nuclear scaffolds reacted with antibodies to 125 and 126-kD proteins, the fluorescent pattern was always disarranged regardless of the stabilization procedure. These results, obtained with nuclei prepared in the absence of Mg+2 ions, indicate that heat treatment per se can induce changes in the distribution of nuclear proteins, at variance with previous suggestions. Nevertheless, each of the proteins we have studied behaves in a different way, possibly because of its specific association with the nuclear scaffold.