Stochastic optimal bid to electricity markets with environmental risk constraints

There are many factors that influence the day-ahead market bidding strategies of a generation company (GenCo) in the current energy market framework. Environmental policy issues have become more and more important for fossil-fuelled power plants and they have to be considered in their management, giving rise to emission limitations. This work allows to investigate the influence of both the allowances and emission reduction plan, and the incorporation of the derivatives medium-term commitments in the optimal generation bidding strategy to the day-ahead electricity market. Two different technologies have been considered: the coal thermal units, high-emission technology, and the combined cycle gas turbine units, low-emission technology. The Iberian Electricity Market and the Spanish National Emissions and Allocation Plans are the framework to deal with the environmental issues in the day-ahead market bidding strategies. To address emission limitations, some of the standard risk management methodologies developed for financial markets, such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), have been extended. This study offers to electricity generation utilities a mathematical model to determinate the individual optimal generation bid to the wholesale electricity market, for each one of their generation units that maximizes the long-run profits of the utility abiding by the Iberian Electricity Market rules, the environmental restrictions set by the EU Emission Trading Scheme, as well as the restrictions set by the Spanish National Emissions Reduction Plan. The economic implications for a GenCo of including the environmental restrictions of these National Plans are analyzed and the most remarkable results will be presented.

No implication of thromboxane prostanoid receptors in reactive hyperemia of skin and skeletal muscle in human forearm.

There is evidence that reactive hyperemia (ie, the transient increase of blood flow above resting level after a short period of ischemia) could be negatively modulated by vasoconstrictor prostanoids. The present study tested whether pharmacological blockade of the thromboxane prostanoid receptors with the specific antagonist S18886 (terutroban) would amplify reactive hyperemia in human skin and skeletal muscle. Twenty healthy young male volunteers were enrolled in a randomized, blinded, crossover trial of oral S18886 30 mg/d for 5 days versus placebo. Reactive hyperemia was evaluated in forearm skin and skeletal muscle, after occlusion of the brachial artery with a pneumatic cuff inflated at suprasystolic pressure. Blood flow was measured with laser Doppler imaging (skin) and strain gauge venous occlusion plethysmography (muscle). On the first and last day of each treatment period, recordings of reactive hyperemia were obtained immediately before and 2 hours after drug intake. Whether in forearm muscle or skin, S18886 had no discernible effect on peak postocclusion blood flow, nor on the global hyperemic response as quantified by the area under curve. These results do not support that thromboxane prostanoid receptor activation could exert a moderating influence on reactive hyperemia in human skin and skeletal muscle, at least in young subjects.

Lack of correlation between the optimal glycaemic control and coronary micro vascular dysfunction in patients with diabetes mellitus: a cross sectional study.

Background Coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMD) is associated with cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Optimal glycaemic control does not always preclude future events. We sought to assess the effect of the current target of HBA1c level on the coronary microcirculatory function and identify predictive factors for CMD in T2DM patients. Methods We studied 100 patients with T2DM and 214 patients without T2DM. All of them with a history of chest pain, non-obstructive angiograms and a direct assessment of coronary blood flow increase in response to adenosine and acetylcholine coronary infusion, for evaluation of endothelial independent and dependent CMD. Patients with T2DM were categorized as having optimal (HbA1c < 7 %) vs. suboptimal (HbA1c ≥ 7 %) glycaemic control at the time of catheterization. Results Baseline characteristics and coronary endothelial function parameters differed significantly between T2DM patients and control group. The prevalence of endothelial independent CMD (29.8 vs. 39.6 %, p = 0.40) and dependent CMD (61.7 vs. 62.2 %, p = 1.00) were similar in patients with optimal vs. suboptimal glycaemic control. Age (OR 1.10; CI 95 % 1.04–1.18; p < 0.001) and female gender (OR 3.87; CI 95 % 1.45–11.4; p < 0.01) were significantly associated with endothelial independent CMD whereas glomerular filtrate (OR 0.97; CI 95 % 0.95–0.99; p < 0.05) was significantly associated with endothelial dependent CMD. The optimal glycaemic control was not associated with endothelial independent (OR 0.60, CI 95 % 0.23–1.46; p 0.26) or dependent CMD (OR 0.99, CI 95 % 0.43–2.24; p = 0.98). Conclusions The current target of HBA1c level does not predict a better coronary microcirculatory function in T2DM patients. The appropriate strategy for prevention of CMD in T2DM patients remains to be addressed. Keywords: Endothelial dysfunction; Diabetes mellitus; Coronary microcirculation

Incremental Prognostic Value of Myocardial Blood Flow Quantification with Rb-82 Cardiac PET in Patients With Known or Suspected CAD

Rb-82cardiac PET has been used to non-invasively assess myocardial blood flow (MBF)and myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The impact of MBF and MFR for predictingmajor adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been investigated in aprospective study, which was our aim. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 280patients (65±10y, 36% women) with known or suspected CAD were prospectivelyenrolled. They all underwent both a rest and adenosine stress Rb-82 cardiacPET/CT. Dynamic acquisitions were processed with the FlowQuant 2.1.3 softwareand analyzed semi-quantitatively (SSS, SDS) and quantitatively (MBF, MFR) andreported using the 17-segment AHA model. Patients were stratified based on SDS,stress MBF and MFR and allocated into tertiles. For each group, annualizedevent rates were computed by dividing the number of annualized MACE (cardiacdeath, myocardial infarction, revascularisation or hospitalisation forcardiac-related event) by the sum of individual follow-up periods in years.Outcome were analysed for each group using Kaplan-Meier event-free survivalcurves and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis wasperformed in a stepwise fashion using Cox proportional hazards regressionmodels (p<0.05 for model inclusion). RESULTS: In a median follow-up of 256days (range 168-440d), 44 MACE were observed. Ischemia (SDS≥2) was observed in95 patients who had higher annualized MACE rate as compared to those without(55% vs. 9.8%, p<0.0001). The group with the lowest MFR tertile (MFR<1.76)had higher MACE rate than the two highest tertiles (51% vs. 9% and 14%,p<0.0001). Similarly, the group with the lowest stress MBF tertile(MBF<1.78mL/min/g) had the highest annualized MACE rate (41% vs. 26% and 6%,p=0.0002). On multivariate analysis, the addition of MFR or stress MBF to SDSsignificantly increased the global χ2 (from 56 to 60, p=0.04; and from56 to 63, p=0.01). The best prognostic power was obtained in a model combiningSDS (p<0.001) and stress MBF (p=0.01). Interestingly, the integration ofstress MBF enhanced risk stratification even in absence of ischemia.CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of MBF or MFR in Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT providesindependent and incremental prognostic information over semi-quantitativeassessment with SDS and is of value for risk stratification.

A comparative study of reactive hyperemia in human forearm skin and muscle

Résumé en français: L'hyperémie réactive dans la microcirculation musculature et cutanée de l'avant-bras permet d'évaluer l'atteinte vasculaire dans les maladie cardiovasculaires. Cette méthode permet d'obtenir un reflet de la progression de l'atteinte vasculaire, de traquer la progression de la maladie ainsi que le risque cardio-vasculaires. Elle est en étude également pour tester l'efficacité d'une intervention thérapeutique. L'hyperémie réactive est dépendante d'une dilatation post ischémique par diminution des résistances artériolaires. Au niveau des membres, l'ischémie peut-être débutée et interrompue très facilement par une manchette à pression gonflée au-dessus de la pression systolique suivie quelques minutes plus tard de son dégonflement. Les mesures de flux sanguin musculaire et cutané au niveau d'un membre sont facile à réaliser chez l'homme, tout particulièrement au niveau de l'avant-bras. Pour l'instant aucune étude utilisant cette approche ne spécifiait quel avant-bras était utilisé. Il est cependant concevable que la réponse varie selon que l'on teste le bras dominant ou non-dominant. Il parait donc important de clarifier ce point. Le premier but de l'étude consiste donc à investiguer une éventuelle différence entre le bras dominant et le bras non-dominant d'un sujet lors de tests de l'hyperémie réactive dans le muscle et la peau. Il est connu que l'hyperémie réactive au niveau musculaire peut-être diminuée par les médicaments antiinflammatoires non stéro~idiens (AINS), indiquant une implication partielle des métabolites de la cyclo-oxygénase. L'influence des AINS sur la réponse cutanée est moins clairement établie. Ainsi, le second but de cette étude est de comparer l'effet de l'inhibition de la cyclo-oxygénase sur l'hyperémie réactive musculaire et cutanée chez des sujets sains. Le collectif de patients consiste en 23 sujets masculins volontaires, en bonne santé, non fumeurs, de 18 à 30 ans. Aucuns antécédents médicaux ne sont connus et aucune médication n'est prise durant la période de l'étude. Tous . les sujets ont donné leur consentement par écrit. Le flux sanguin musculaire de l'avant-bras est mesuré au moyen d'une pléthysmographie par occlusion veineuse, et le flux cutané l'est par imagerie laser Doppler. Les expériences ont lieu entre 16 et 18 h dans une chambre calme à température constante (23-24°C) chez un sujet couché. Les participants n'ont pas consommé d'AINS durant la semaine précédente ni bu de café dans les 12 h précédant l'expérience. Les mesures sont effectuées en triplicat au niveau musculaire puis cutané ou inversement selon un ordre aléatoire. Suite à une occlusion artérielle l'étude du flux se fait sur 3 min et 5 min de récupération sont prises entre 2 mesures. L'expérience 1 consiste à tester un possible effet systématique de la latéralisation du bras dominant ou non sur la réponse à l'hyperémie réactive dans la peau et le muscle de l'avant-bras. 16 sujets sont étudiés à 2 reprises, espacées de 1 à 3 jours. A la première visite, l'hyperémie musculaire est étudiée dans un avant-bras, la réaction cutanée dans l'autre et inversement lors de la deuxième visite. Une précaution est observée afin de mesurer le flux sanguin cutané à la même distance du poignet dans les 2 avant-bras. L'expérience 2 est développée pour évaluer l'impact d'une inhibition des cyclo-oxygénases. Sept sujet sont considérés à 2 occasions espacées de 7 à 10 j. L'étude s'effectue uniquement au niveau de l'avant-bras dominant. Le site cutané au niveau du poignet est marqué lors de la première visite afin d'utiliser le même site de mesure lors de la seconde visite. Le sujet ingère 1,8 g d'Aspegic (équivalant à 1 g d'acide acétylsalilcylique) dissout dans 125 ml de jus d'orange ou le jus d'orange seul lors de l'autre visite selon un ordre randomisé. Les mesures sont débutées 2 h après la prise. Summary Reactive hyperemia (RH) in forearm muscle or skin microcirculation has been considered as a surrogate endpoint in clinical studies of cardiovascular disease. We evaluated two potential confounders that might limit such use of RH, namely laterality of measurement and intake of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS). Twenty-three young non-smoking healthy adults were enrolled. In Experiment 1 (n=16), the RH elicited by 3 min of ischemia was recorded in the muscle (strain gauge plethysmography, hand excluded) and skin (laser Doppler imaging) of both forearms. In Experiment 2 (n=7), RH was determined in the dominant forearm only, one hour following oral acetylsalicylic acid (1 g) or placebo. In Experiment 1, peak RH was identical in both forearms, and so were the corresponding durations of responses. RH lasted significantly less in muscle than in skin (p=0.003), a hitherto unrecognized fact. In the skin, acetylsalicylate reduced duration (43 vs 57.4 s for placebo, p=0.03), without affecting the peak response. In muscle, duration tended to decrease with acetylsalicylate (21.4 vs 26.0 s with placebo, p=0.06) and the peak increase in blood flow was blunted (27.2 vs 32.4 ml/min/100 ml tissue with placebo, p=0.003). We conclude that, when using RH as a surrogate endpoint in studies of cardiovascular disease, a confounding by laterality of measurement need not be feared, but NSAIDS may have an influence, although perhaps not on the peak response in the skin.

Predicting optimal lengths of random knots

In a thermally fluctuating long linear polymeric chain in a solution, the ends, from time to time, approach each other. At such an instance, the chain can be regarded as closed and thus will form a knot or rather a virtual knot. Several earlier studies of random knotting demonstrated that simpler knots show a higher occurrence for shorter random walks than do more complex knots. However, up to now there have been no rules that could be used to predict the optimal length of a random walk, i.e. the length for which a given knot reaches its highest occurrence. Using numerical simulations, we show here that a power law accurately describes the relation between the optimal lengths of random walks leading to the formation of different knots and the previously characterized lengths of ideal knots of a corresponding type.

Non-peaky signals in wideband fading channels: achievable bit rates and optimal bandwidth

In the context of fading channels it is well established that, with a constrained transmit power, the bit rates achievable by signals that are not peaky vanish as the bandwidth grows without bound. Stepping back from the limit, we characterize the highest bit rate achievable by such non-peaky signals and the approximate bandwidth where that apex occurs. As it turns out, the gap between the highest rate achievable without peakedness and the infinite-bandwidth capacity (with unconstrained peakedness) is small for virtually all settings of interest to wireless communications. Thus, although strictly achieving capacity in wideband fading channels does require signal peakedness, bit rates not far from capacity can be achieved with conventional signaling formats that do not exhibit the serious practical drawbacks associated with peakedness. In addition, we show that the asymptotic decay of bit rate in the absence of peakedness usually takes hold at bandwidths so large that wideband fading models are called into question. Rather, ultrawideband models ought to be used.

Intrauterine growth restriction and absent or reverse end-diastolic blood flow in umbilical artery (Doppler class II or III): A retrospective study of short- and long-term fetal morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Absent or reverse end-diastolic flow (Doppler II/III) in umbilical artery is correlated with poor perinatal outcome, particularly in intrauterine growth restricted (IUGR) fetuses. The optimal timing of delivery is still controversial. We studied the short- and long-term morbidity and mortality among these children associated with our defined management. STUDY DESIGN: Sixty-nine IUGR fetuses with umbilical Doppler II/III were divided into three groups; Group 1, severe early IUGR, no therapeutic intervention (n = 7); Group 2, fetuses with pathological biophysical profile, immediate delivery (n = 35); Group 3, fetuses for which expectant management had been decided (n = 27). RESULTS: In Group 1, stillbirth was observed after a mean delay of 6.3 days. Group 2 delivered at an average of 31.6 weeks and two died in the neonatal period (6%). In Group 3 after a mean delay of 8 days, average gestational age at delivery was 31.7 weeks; two intra uterine and four perinatal deaths were observed (22%). Long-term follow-up revealed no sequelae in 25/31 (81%) and 15/18 (83%), and major handicap occurred in 1 (3%) and 2 patients (11%), respectively, for Groups 2 and 3. CONCLUSION: Fetal mortality was observed in 22% of this high risk group. After a mean period of follow-up of 5 years, 82% of infants showed no sequelae. According to our management, IUGR associated with umbilical Doppler II or III does not show any benefit from an expectant management in term of long-term morbidity.

Detection of Optimal Models in Parameter Space with Support Vector Machines

The paper proposes an approach aimed at detecting optimal model parameter combinations to achieve the most representative description of uncertainty in the model performance. A classification problem is posed to find the regions of good fitting models according to the values of a cost function. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification in the parameter space is applied to decide if a forward model simulation is to be computed for a particular generated model. SVM is particularly designed to tackle classification problems in high-dimensional space in a non-parametric and non-linear way. SVM decision boundaries determine the regions that are subject to the largest uncertainty in the cost function classification, and, therefore, provide guidelines for further iterative exploration of the model space. The proposed approach is illustrated by a synthetic example of fluid flow through porous media, which features highly variable response due to the parameter values' combination.

Evaluation of C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-6, and interleukin-8 as diagnostic parameters in sepsis-related fatalities.

The aims of this study were to investigate the usefulness of serum C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-6, and interleukin-8 as postmortem markers of sepsis and to compare C-reactive protein and procalcitonin values in serum, vitreous humor, and cerebrospinal fluid in a series of sepsis cases and control subjects, in order to determine whether these measurements may be employed for the postmortem diagnosis of sepsis. Two study groups were formed, a sepsis group (eight subjects coming from the intensive care unit of two university hospitals, with a clinical diagnosis of sepsis in vivo) and control group (ten autopsy cases admitted to two university medicolegal centers, deceased from natural and unnatural causes, without elements to presume an underlying sepsis as the cause of death). Serum C-reactive protein and procalcitonin concentrations were significantly different between sepsis cases and control cases, whereas serum tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-6, and interleukin-8 values were not significantly different between the two groups, suggesting that measurement of interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor alpha is non-optimal for postmortem discrimination of cases with sepsis. In the sepsis group, vitreous procalcitonin was detectable in seven out of eight cases. In the control group, vitreous procalcitonin was clearly detectable only in one case, which also showed an increase of all markers in serum and for which the cause of death was myocardial infarction associated with multi-organic failure. According to the results of this study, the determination of vitreous procalcitonin may be an alternative to the serum procalcitonin for the postmortem diagnosis of sepsis.

Enhanced generation of specific tumor-reactive CTL in vitro by selected Melan-A/MART-1 immunodominant peptide analogues.

The Melan-A/MART-1 gene, which is expressed by normal melanocytes as well as by most fresh melanoma samples and melanoma cell lines, codes for Ags recognized by tumor-reactive CTL. HLA-A*0201-restricted Melan-A-specific CTL recognize primarily the Melan-A(27-35) (AAGIGILTV) and the Melan-A(26-35) (EAAGIGILTV) peptides. The sequences of these two peptides are not necessarily optimal as far as binding to HLA-A*0201 is concerned, since both lack one of the dominant anchor amino acid residues (leucine or methionine) at position 2. In this study we introduced single amino acid substitutions in either one of the two natural peptide sequences with the aim of improving peptide binding to HLA-A*0201 and/or recognition by specific CTL. Surprisingly, analogues of the Melan-A(27-35) peptide, which bound more efficiently than the natural nonapeptide to HLA-A*0201, were poorly recognized by tumor-reactive CTL. In contrast, among the Melan-A(26-35) peptide analogues tested, the peptide ELAGIGILTV was not only able to display stable binding to HLA-A2.1 but was also recognized more efficiently than the natural peptide by two short-term cultured tumor-infiltrated lymph node cell cultures as well as by five of five tumor-reactive CTL clones. Moreover, in vitro generation of tumor-reactive CTL by stimulation of PBMC from HLA-A*0201 melanoma patients with this particular peptide analogue was much more efficient than that observed with either one of the two natural peptides. These results suggest that the Melan-A(26-35) peptide analogue ELAGIGILTV may be more immunogenic than the natural peptides in HLA-A*0201 melanoma patients and should thus be considered as a candidate for future peptide-based vaccine trials.

Activation of human melanoma reactive CD8+ T cells by vaccination with an immunogenic peptide analog derived from Melan-A/melanoma antigen recognized by T cells-1.

PURPOSE: As compared with natural tumor peptide sequences, carefully selected analog peptides may be more immunogenic and thus better suited for vaccination. However, T cells in vivo activated by such altered analog peptides may not necessarily be tumor specific because sequence and structure of peptide analogs differ from corresponding natural peptides. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Three melanoma patients were immunized with a Melan-A peptide analog that binds more strongly to HLA-A*0201 and is more immunogenic than the natural sequence. This peptide was injected together with a saponin-based adjuvant, followed by surgical removal of lymph node(s) draining the site of vaccination. RESULTS: Ex vivo analysis of vaccine site draining lymph nodes revealed antigen-specific CD8+ T cells, which had differentiated to memory cells. In vitro, these cells showed accelerated proliferation upon peptide stimulation. Nearly all (16 of 17) of Melan-A-specific CD8+ T-cell clones generated from these lymph nodes efficiently killed melanoma cells. CONCLUSIONS: Patient immunization with the analog peptide leads to in vivo activation of T cells that were specific for the natural tumor antigen, demonstrating the usefulness of the analog peptide for melanoma immunotherapy.

Sustainability of the Peruvian anchoveta supply chains from sea to shelf: towards a new strategy for optimal use of resources

The research performed a sustainability assessment of supply chains of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in Peru. The corresponding fisheries lands 6.5 million t per year, of which <2% is rendered into products for direct human consumption (DHC) and 98% reduced into feed ingredients (fishmeal and fish oil, FMFO), for export. Several industries compete for the anchoveta resources, generating local and global impacts. The need for understanding these dynamics, towards sustainability-improving management and policy recommendations, determined the development of a sustainability assessment framework: 1) characterisation and modelling of the systems under study (with Life Cycle Assessment and other tools) including local aquaculture, 2) calculation of sustainability indicators (i.e. energy efficiency, nutritional value, socio-economic performances), and 3) sustainability comparison of supply chains; definition and comparison of alternative exploitation scenarios. Future exploitation scenarios were defined by combining an ecosystem and a material flow models: continuation of the status quo (Scenario 1), shift towards increased proportion of DHC production (Scenario 2), and radical reduction of the anchoveta harvest in order for other fish stocks to recover and be exploited for DHC (Scenario 3). Scenario 2 was identified as the most sustainable. Management and policy recommendations include improving of: controls for compliance with management measures, sanitary conditions for DHC, landing infrastructure for small- and medium-scale (SMS) fisheries; the development of a national refrigerated distribution chain; and the assignation of flexible tolerances for discards from different DHC processes.

Short-term moderate hypocapnia augments detection of optimal cerebral perfusion pressure.

An autoregulation-oriented strategy has been proposed to guide neurocritical therapy toward the optimal cerebral perfusion pressure (CPPOPT). The influence of ventilation changes is, however, unclear. We sought to find out whether short-term moderate hypocapnia (HC) shifts the CPPOPT or affects its detection. Thirty patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI), who required sedation and mechanical ventilation, were studied during 20 min of normocapnia (5.1±0.4 kPa) and 30 min of moderate HC (4.4±3.0 kPa). Monitoring included bilateral transcranial Doppler of the middle cerebral arteries (MCA), invasive arterial blood pressure (ABP), and intracranial pressure (ICP). Mx -autoregulatory index provided a measure for the CPP responsiveness of MCA flow velocity. CPPOPT was assessed as the CPP at which autoregulation (Mx) was working with the maximal efficiency. During normocapnia, CPPOPT (left: 80.65±6.18; right: 79.11±5.84 mm Hg) was detectable in 12 of 30 patients. Moderate HC did not shift this CPPOPT but enabled its detection in another 17 patients (CPPOPT left: 83.94±14.82; right: 85.28±14.73 mm Hg). The detection of CPPOPT was achieved via significantly improved Mx-autoregulatory index and an increase of CPP mean. It appeared that short-term moderate HC augmented the detection of an optimum CPP, and may therefore usefully support CPP-guided therapy in patients with TBI.

Optimal management of microgrids

Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.. Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.