March 4th, 1999 : the recognition-primed decision hypothesis

On March 4, 1999, the newly appointed President of the Brazilian Central Bank, Mr Armínio Fraga, raised interest rates to a staggering 45% per annum. The objective of that decision was to keep foreign investors assets in Brazil, and prevent the country from default. At the time, Brazil suffered frem an enormously intense crisis of confidence, and fears of such default were widespread. Mr Fraga was walking a very fine line when making that decision, for it could bring forth unintended effects: the market, already concerned about Brazil's sustainability, could perceive the increased rate as an irreversible step towards the abyss inevitable default. Economic theory postulates the rational actor model as the driving force behind economic decision-making. The objective of this thesis is to present and discuss the hypothesis that this particular decision, and by extension many others, are better explained threugh the recognition-primed decision mode!.

Essays in recursive equilibrium and market selection hypothesis

Este trabalho consiste em estudar modelos incluindo agentes com informação completa e incompleta sobre o ambiente econômico. Prova-se a existência de equilíbrio em que esses dois agentes coexistem e sob, algumas condições, obtêm-se que esse equilíbrio é recursivo e contínuo, ou seja, pode ser implementado por uma função contínua de transição que relaciona as variáveis de equilíbrio entre dois períodos consecutivos. Mostra-se, sob algumas hipóteses, que em equilíbrios recursivos contínuos, os agentes que cometem erros persistentes nas antecipações dos preços de equilíbrio são eliminados do mercado. Finalmente, exibimos diversos exemplos numéricos, no caso de mercados incompletos e informação completa, em que os agentes com expectativas racionais são eliminados do mercado. Usam-se métodos numéricos alternativos que possibilitam computar um equilíbrio em modelos com agentes heterogêneos.

The effects of commodity dependence on the brazilian economy: a test of the dutch disease hypothesis

A doença holandesa tornou-se amplamente conhecida na década de 1960, quando a descoberta repentina de reservatórios de gás natural em território holandês, na região do mar do norte, transformou o país em uma economia rica em recursos. A desagradável consequência que proveio da recém-adquirida abundância de commodities foi o declínio da próspera indústria holandesa, que perdeu sua competitividade devido à valorização do florim holandês, como consequência do aumento do influxo de capital estrangeiro no país. Desde então este fenômeno tem sido observado em diversos países que possuem abundância de commodities. O objetivo desta tese é aplicar o modelo da doença holandesa ao Brasil, já que a maior economia da América latina poderá também ter de encarar a ameaça de se tornar prisioneira da “armadilha das commodities”, devido à sua abundância de recursos naturais. O autor revisa a bibliografia básica abordando o tema geral da doença holandesa e dá enfoque a estudos realizados anteriormente no Brasil. Além disso, os quatro maiores sintomas que caracterizam a doença holandesa são testados: (1) valorização das taxas de câmbio do real, (2) declínio do setor industrial, (3) crescimento do setor de serviços, e (4) aumento dos salários. Todos estes sintomas foram observados e podem ser comprovados através das abordagens de cointegração ou de correlação, com exceção do sintoma número dois. Ainda que estes resultados sejam significativos, há muito outros fatores determinantes que influenciam o desenvolvimento dos sintomas examinados, motivo pelo qual futuros estudos serão necessários para se obtiver conclusões definitivas sobre como o Brasil é afetado pela doença holandesa.

Essays on Spatial Econometrics

Esta dissertação concentra-se nos processos estocásticos espaciais definidos em um reticulado, os chamados modelos do tipo Cliff & Ord. Minha contribuição nesta tese consiste em utilizar aproximações de Edgeworth e saddlepoint para investigar as propriedades em amostras finitas do teste para detectar a presença de dependência espacial em modelos SAR (autoregressivo espacial), e propor uma nova classe de modelos econométricos espaciais na qual os parâmetros que afetam a estrutura da média são distintos dos parâmetros presentes na estrutura da variância do processo. Isto permite uma interpretação mais clara dos parâmetros do modelo, além de generalizar uma proposta de taxonomia feita por Anselin (2003). Eu proponho um estimador para os parâmetros do modelo e derivo a distribuição assintótica do estimador. O modelo sugerido na dissertação fornece uma interpretação interessante ao modelo SARAR, bastante comum na literatura. A investigação das propriedades em amostras finitas dos testes expande com relação a literatura permitindo que a matriz de vizinhança do processo espacial seja uma função não-linear do parâmetro de dependência espacial. A utilização de aproximações ao invés de simulações (mais comum na literatura), permite uma maneira fácil de comparar as propriedades dos testes com diferentes matrizes de vizinhança e corrigir o tamanho ao comparar a potência dos testes. Eu obtenho teste invariante ótimo que é também localmente uniformemente mais potente (LUMPI). Construo o envelope de potência para o teste LUMPI e mostro que ele é virtualmente UMP, pois a potência do teste está muito próxima ao envelope (considerando as estruturas espaciais definidas na dissertação). Eu sugiro um procedimento prático para construir um teste que tem boa potência em uma gama de situações onde talvez o teste LUMPI não tenha boas propriedades. Eu concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com o tamanho da amostra e com o parâmetro de dependência espacial (o que está de acordo com a literatura). Entretanto, disputo a visão consensual que a potência do teste diminui a medida que a matriz de vizinhança fica mais densa. Isto reflete um erro de medida comum na literatura, pois a distância estatística entre a hipótese nula e a alternativa varia muito com a estrutura da matriz. Fazendo a correção, concluo que a potência do teste aumenta com a distância da alternativa à nula, como esperado.

A unit root test based on partially adaptive estimation

This paper constructs a unit root test baseei on partially adaptive estimation, which is shown to be robust against non-Gaussian innovations. We show that the limiting distribution of the t-statistic is a convex combination of standard normal and DF distribution. Convergence to the DF distribution is obtaineel when the innovations are Gaussian, implying that the traditional ADF test is a special case of the proposed testo Monte Carlo Experiments indicate that, if innovation has heavy tail distribution or are contaminated by outliers, then the proposed test is more powerful than the traditional ADF testo Nominal interest rates (different maturities) are shown to be stationary according to the robust test but not stationary according to the nonrobust ADF testo This result seems to suggest that the failure of rejecting the null of unit root in nominal interest rate may be due to the use of estimation and hypothesis testing procedures that do not consider the absence of Gaussianity in the data.Our results validate practical restrictions on the behavior of the nominal interest rate imposed by CCAPM, optimal monetary policy and option pricing models.

Os efeitos das reclamações online na lealdade dos consumidores: um estudo experimental

In an environment of constant change, technological developments, market competition and more informed consumers, the search for a lasting relationship through the conquest of loyalty has become the objective of companies. However, several authors suggest that this loyalty can be affected by negative comments available on the internet. Therefore, this dissertation has as objective to examine if the complaints are available on the internet impact the loyalty to a brand of mobile phone. The research used as the basis the Expanded NCSB model suggest by Johnson et al. (2001), studying five prominent drives of loyalty: image/brand reputation, affective commitment, calculative commitment, perceived value and trust, beyond the satisfaction construct as moderator variable. The research method adopted was the experimental design which included 285 undergraduate students, with the trial which included 285 undergraduate students, with the field study of the mobile industry, specifically, the brands of cell phones. The research approach was quantitative and methods were descriptive statistics, factor analysis, cluster analysis, linear regression and non-parametric test of Wilcoxon for data analysis. Of the 16 hypothesis stemmed from the research model proposed, 12 were confirmed. The results showed that the complaint available on the internet, here represented by the available on the site Reclame Aqui, may impact consumer perceptions about brand loyalty, as well as its antecedents, being that these complaints can affect all the consumers, regardless of historical satisfaction with the brand. It also noted the positive relationship between the independent variables trust, image/brand reputation, perceived value, affective commitment and calculative commitment and the dependent variable - loyalty, even when considering the data obtained after exposure to the complaint. However, no unanimous conclusion that the relationship between these variables was strongest in the group with satisfactory experience. At the first moment of the research, the trust was the most important variable for the formation of loyalty. However, after exposure to treatment, the image/brand reputation, was more relevant. Contributions of the study, limitations and recommendations for future researches are approached in the present investigation

Percepção Ambiental em Museus Paisagens de Arte Contemporânea: a legibilidade dos museus Inhotim/Brasil e em Serralves/Portugal avaliada pelo público/visitante

This thesis nalyzes the wayfinding in Landscape Museum of Contemporary Art (MPAC), based on the Institute of Contemporary Art CACI, Minas Gerais, Brazil and the Museum of Contemporary Art of the Serralves Foundation, Porto, Portugal. The study focuses on the interrelationship of the public/visitors with the landscape, architecture and contemporary art museums in these, in order to understand visual perception and apprehension of such an environment for their users. For both were confronted documentation (visual and written) and people talk. The main hypothesis put forward is that the audience/visitor MPAC appreciates the interrelationship between the natural environment (park/garden) and built environment (the works of contemporary art and the galleries), giving equal value to both. To complement this, a second hypothesis is that during the visit to MPACS, visitors define their paths spontaneously, but strongly influenced by existing visual indicators (maps, signage and striking landscape elements), which facilitate the readability of space, which also contribute to the offered services and the experiences of similar institutions. The analytical basis of the research used the concepts of legibility (LYNCH, 2009), wayfinding (GIBSON, 2009; ARTHUR, PASSINI, 2002; WEISMAN, 1982), Experiential Cotinnum (TUAN, 1985), Space Bound (CRUZ PINTO, 2007) and habitus (BOURDIEU, 1992). Methodologically was used qualitative research (DEMO 2000) by means of a case study (YIN, 2005; STAKE, 1999) and participant observation (WHYTE, 2005). In the two institutions interviews with researchers and curators, behavior observation and questionnaires from employees, trainees, monitors and the public/visitor of the two museums were performed. Although partially referende the initial hypothesis, the research showed that the public/visitor value appears more natural environments, they experience a greater intensity and in addition to the factors listed in the second case, your perception and definition of paths suffer significant influence of emotional relations established with space. Generally the audience/visitor adapts easily to different demands of contemporary art exhibition in the two museums and the built environment (park/garden and museum) interferes with your reading path during the visit, perceived by the public/visitor condition as a factor that favors the enjoyment of works on different mounts (wayfinding), though often become a factor that hinders the legibility of the building and its built environment

Percepção ambiental do patrimônio cultural: estudo de caso na Cidade Alta e Ribeira em Natal-RN

Contemporary studies have shown that the evolution of the heritage concepts is accompanied by an affirmation of the importance of social participation in recognizing heritage values and in managing cultural assets. We used the Brazilian context to emphasize the challenges for democratizing this process. This problematic is discussed based on the cases of Cidade Altaand Ribeira, neighborhoods that date from the formation of Natal-RNand have cultural assets recognized by levels of government. The study builds elements to answer the research question: what meanings and representations does the culturalheritage in the case study have for its users? The research method analyzes the representations and the meanings of the neighborhoods, firstly is based on historiographical studies, memories records of the city and on the process of heritage management. Secondly, it isbased on the field research, it is structured in environmental perception studies (areas of Environmental Psychology, Architecture and Urbanism) and has been applied with users with different bonds with the studied environment (residents, workers and visitors). The data were obtained with the multi-method which included direct observation, questionnaire survey and mentalmaps (that replicate Kevin Lynch). The analysis of result verified the research hypothesis, emphasizing aspects of the relationship between users and cultural heritage relevant to strengthening collective memory, local identity, contributing to heritage management. Among the results, the socio-environmental image obtained which emphasized a "cultural axis" linkingboth studied neighborhoods and confirms the influences of elements rein the memories records of the city and in the area s management. Identified aspects to strengthen the relationship between the users and cultural assets, such as the presence of placeswith affective ties to certain groups, as well as the need to fight off negative images (of degradation and insecurity) associated to the site and also expand the participation of the population, including residents, in policies and cultural activities. After all, recognition of value and the involvement of societycultural assets have the potential of contribute to integrate city development with heritage conservation

Perfil de memória e ativação de linfócitos T na leishmaniose visceral

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil is a disease caused by Leishmania infantum chagasi (L.i.chagasi). The clinical evolution post-infection depends on the vertebrate host immune response, which is genetically mediated. This study aimed to evaluate the immune response of individuals living in endemic area for VL in the state of the Rio Grande do Norte, considering individuals with VL under treatment (n = 9), recovered VL <1 year post treatment (n = 10), > 10 years posttreatment (n = 9), uninfected individuals living in endemic areas (n = 7), individuals that lost DTH response (n=6) and asymptomatic individuals for VL (n=9). Peripheral blood cells were evaluated in the presence and absence of soluble Leishmania antigens (SLA) and ex vivo, to determine activation, presence of regulatory cells and memory cells. The Leishmania parasitemia and anti-Leishmania antibodies were determined respectively by qPCR and ELISA. Cells from individuals with VL under treatment showed less cell activation after stimulation with SLA for the markers CD4/CD69, CD8/CD69 and CD8/CD25 compared with VL post treatment treatment (p <0.001). Apparently uninfected individuals have a higher cell activation than symptomatic VL (p <0.001), with the exception of CD8/CD25 marker (p = 0.6662). On the other hand, in the ex-vivo group, significant differences were observed for CD4/CD69, CD8/CD69 and CD8/CD25 between the 4 groups due to increased cell activation present in cells of individuals symptomatic LV (p <0.001). VL cells under treatment, ex vivo, have a lower percentage of memory cells (CD4/CD45RO and CD8/CD45RO) than individuals VL post-treatment or control group (p = <0.01). Likewise, individuals with symptomatic VL have fewer regulatory cells when stimulated by SLA [CD4/CD25 (p = 0.0022) and CD4/FOXP3 (p = 0.0016)] and in the ex-vivo group (p = 0.0017). Finally, DNA isolated from recovered VL contained Leishmania DNA, supporting the hypothesis of non-sterile clinical cure for Leishmania infection. Recovered VL, even 10 years after treatment have high levels of memory cells, which may be due to the presence of stimulation, either by reexposure to Leishmania or non-sterile cure

Efeito antitrombótico de uma fucana não anticoagulante extraída da alga Spatoglossum Schröederi

Fucan is a term used to denominate a family of sulfated L-fucose-rich polysaccharides. The brown alga Spatoglossum schröederi (Dictyotaceae) has three heterofucans namely fucan A, B and C. The 21 kDa fucan A is composed of a core of β (1-3) glucuronic acid-containing oligosaccharide of 4.5 kDa with branches at C4 of fucose chains α (1-3) linked. The fucose is mostly substituted at C4 with a sulfate group and at C2 with chains of β (1-4) xylose. This fucan has neither anticoagulant (from from 0.1 to 100µg) nor hemorrhagic activities (from 50 to 800 µg/mL). The antithrombotic test in vivo showed the fucan A has no activity in any of the concentrations (from 0.2 to 20µg/g/day) tested 1h after polysaccharide administration. However, when fucan A was injected endovenously 24h before the ligature of the venae cavae, we observed a dose-dependent effect, reaching saturation at around 20g/g of rat weight. In addition, this effect is also time-dependent, reaching saturation around 16h after fucan administration. In addition, regardless of administration pathway, fucan A displayed antithrombotic action. The exception was the oral pathway. Of particular importance was the finding that fucan A stimulates the synthesis of an antithrombotic heparan sulfate from endothelial cells like heparin. The hypothesis has been raised that in vivo antithrombotic activity of fucan A is related to the increased production this heparan. Taken together with the fact that the compound is practically devoid of anticoagulant and hemorrhagic activity suggests that it may be an ideal antithrombotic agent in vivo

Análise da efetividade do transplante renal na qualidade de vida dos receptores no estado do Rio Grande do Norte

This study was developed with the aim of analyzing the effectiveness of renal transplantation on quality of life of kidney recipients in the Rio Grande do Norte State. This is a descriptive study with longitudinal design, panel type with quantitative approach to data analysis. The Quality of Life (QoL) of chronic disease kidney patients before and after kidney transplantation was assessed by the WHOQOL-bref, The population consisted of patients in pre and post-renal transplantation, the sample had 63 patients older than 18 years. The study was conducted after approval by the Research Ethics Committee of the Onofre Lopes University Hospital, Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, No. CAAE 0008.0.294.000-10. Data collection was performed at a referral center for renal transplantation in Rio Grande do Norte, from May 2010 to May 2013. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and presented in tables and graphs. For statistical analyzes, Microsoft Excel XP and SPSS 15.0 software were used. The tests used were simple variance (ANOVA), t-test, Mann-Whitney and Wilcoxon test to compare means, and Spearman correlations. P values <0.05 were considered significant. The demographic data showed a predominance of people between 18 and 45 years (68.2%) with a mean age of 39.9 years (SD 12.2), male (63.5%), married (58.7%), with children (51.0%). Regarding the education level was observed that 49.2% of participants had completed primary school, and most did not engage in any work activity (90.4%) during the study period. Hemodialysis was the predominant renal replacement therapy (96.8%) and the average waiting time for execution of transplantation was 1.9 years (SD 1.9). Comparison of QoL before and after transplantation showed significant differences in all areas analyzed, demonstrating that kidney transplantation had a positive impact on QoL in chronic renal patients undergoing kidney transplantation. Sociodemographic factors did not influence the quality of life in this group of patients, indicating that transplantation was the main factor to explain the improvement in quality of life. Thus, the alternative hypothesis of the study was accept, that there is a significant difference in quality of life before and after kidney transplant. It is expected that the results of this study may contribute to the development of strategies to encourage organ donation and kidney transplantation process

Desvendando o padrão alimentar de famílias rurais: o que tem no prato?

That work looked for to point out the different conceptions on the family agriculture and the established self-consumption practices inside the unit of production. Hypothesis: due to the conditions, more and more restricted of producing for the self-consumption, the rural families are more favorable present her situation of alimentary insecurity as severe as for the urban families, unlike what he/she defends. The research was accomplished in three states of the Northeast: Paraíba; Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe. The results revealed that among the main factors that expose those families to situations of constant alimentary vulnerability are had: the low quality of the alimentary consumption in what concerns the readiness, to the diversification and mainly, to the accessibility. The analyses can be to subsidize a reflection concerning the alimentary pattern of families rural front to the precepts of Food and Nutrition Security (FNS) politics

Cara e coroa: O PRONAF B e os impactos na ocupação rural do município de Ceará-Mirim

The present work deals with study on the National Program of Reinforcement of Familiar Agriculture, Group B, referring it offers of agricultural credit the agriculturists who possess familiar prescription until R$ 2,000, 00, and its impact in the agricultural occupation of the city of Ceará-Mirim. From theoretical referencial regarding the agricultural occupation, it collects of data, application of questionnaires between the beneficiaries of PRONAF B and interviews with the involved actors, it was made possible ascertainment of the hypothesis of that the program in this modality of credit, is capable to provide only to the maintenance or diversification of the occupation in the familiar unit and not it generation of remunerated occupation not familiar. This research disclosed to the diverse possibilities of use of the credit and its impact in the agricultural occupation, exactly when it is deviated for other purposes not waked up next to the financial institution, generating impacts not waited, however positive. When destined to the waked up end, still new forms appear of way occupation to complement it the deriving familiar prescription of the main activity. Unable to discard the rise even though very small and informal, non-family gainful occupation. The knowledge is added of that exactly ahead of the easinesses of access to the social base of the program, many familiar agriculturists still find difficulties in the approval of the which had credit, on the other hand, the requirements of the financial institutions

Associativismo nos municípios rurais: uma alternativa de desenvolvimento local em Portalegre/RN

This work aims to study the associations as mediating the process of social change and its importance for local development. The hypothesis is that associations, but bring dynamism to the smaller cities and improve the living conditions of their members, relegated to the background social sustainability, understood this as a permanent exercise of mobilization and participation in community life. The assumptions of the study are that the practice group has influenced the processes of local development in Brazilian rural municipalities through the mediation of government programs and projects aimed at combating rural poverty require social organization for their achievement. The concept of local development in this work was rescued from studies of political economy and sociology. But the concepts of collective action and partnerships advêem studies of political participation and social development of the theory of alternative or solidarity. The party consisted of an empirical case study conducted with four associations of farmers in the municipality of Portalegre-RN. Why choose qualitative study was used the technique of semi-structured interviews with the chairmen I members of associations and other actors considered essential to understanding the study (religious leaders, local political power and chairman of the union of rural workers), a total of 20 interviews, in addition to the observations of field and documentary research in records of the.ir own organizations. The survey results show that the performance of groups of farmers are key components and determinants for the production I marketing of agricultural products and for boosting the economy, as well as security for minimum levels of citizenship. Yet we are still in a space purpose of social change, which comes to confirm the initial hypothesis of this work