Electoral rules, political competition and fiscal spending: regression discontinuity evidence from brazilian municipalities

We exploit a discontinuity in Brazilian municipal election rules to investigate whether political competition has a causal impact on policy choices. In municipalities with less than 200,000 voters mayors are elected with a plurality of the vote. In municipalities with more than 200,000 voters a run-off election takes place among the top two candidates if neither achieves a majority of the votes. At a first stage, we show that the possibility of runoff increases political competition. At a second stage, we use the discontinuity as a source of exogenous variation to infer causality from political competition to fiscal policy. Our second stage results suggest that political competition induces more investment and less current spending, particularly personnel expenses. Furthermore, the impact of political competition is larger when incumbents can run for reelection, suggesting incentives matter insofar as incumbents can themselves remain in office.

Nonparametric entropy-based tests of independence between stochastic processes

This paper develops nonparametric tests of independence between two stationary stochastic processes. The testing strategy boils down to gauging the closeness between the joint and the product of the marginal stationary densities. For that purpose, I take advantage of a generalized entropic measure so as to build a class of nonparametric tests of independence. Asymptotic normality and local power are derived using the functional delta method for kernels, whereas finite sample properties are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations.

Wald tests for IV regression with weak instruments

This dissertation deals with the problem of making inference when there is weak identification in models of instrumental variables regression. More specifically we are interested in one-sided hypothesis testing for the coefficient of the endogenous variable when the instruments are weak. The focus is on the conditional tests based on likelihood ratio, score and Wald statistics. Theoretical and numerical work shows that the conditional t-test based on the two-stage least square (2SLS) estimator performs well even when instruments are weakly correlated with the endogenous variable. The conditional approach correct uniformly its size and when the population F-statistic is as small as two, its power is near the power envelopes for similar and non-similar tests. This finding is surprising considering the bad performance of the two-sided conditional t-tests found in Andrews, Moreira and Stock (2007). Given this counter intuitive result, we propose novel two-sided t-tests which are approximately unbiased and can perform as well as the conditional likelihood ratio (CLR) test of Moreira (2003).

Nonparametric tail risk, macroeconomics and stock returns: predictability and risk premia

This paper proposes a new novel to calculate tail risks incorporating risk-neutral information without dependence on options data. Proceeding via a non parametric approach we derive a stochastic discount factor that correctly price a chosen panel of stocks returns. With the assumption that states probabilities are homogeneous we back out the risk neutral distribution and calculate five primitive tail risk measures, all extracted from this risk neutral probability. The final measure is than set as the first principal component of the preliminary measures. Using six Fama-French size and book to market portfolios to calculate our tail risk, we find that it has significant predictive power when forecasting market returns one month ahead, aggregate U.S. consumption and GDP one quarter ahead and also macroeconomic activity indexes. Conditional Fama-Macbeth two-pass cross-sectional regressions reveal that our factor present a positive risk premium when controlling for traditional factors.

Optimal two-sided tests for instrumental variables regression with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors

This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the nite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in nite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics.

Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

Estimation of genetic parameters for partial egg production periods by means of random regression models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Contribuição à citogenética de testudines e análise de assimetria flutuante em Eretmochelys imbricata, Cheloniidae

This work has contributed to knowledge of the order Testudines from cytogenetic and morphological point of view. With regard to the aspects proposed cytogenetic characterization of the species Mesoclemmys tuberculata (n = 5), endemic to the Caatinga biomes, through conventional techniques of cytogenetics and molecular levels. This species presented 2n = 58, NF = 64, the first submetacentric pair, the second metacentric and third subtelocentric, and the other microchromosome telocentric. This species showed a nucleolar bearing pair, coincident with the 18S ribosomal rDNA and that proved to be heterochromatic. Small heterochromatic blocks were also found in the centromeres of the largest chromosomes, as well as terminal regions in most other chromosomes of the complement, that were GC +. Telomeric sequences showed variable patterns of signal intensity, with some repeats more intense in microchromosomes and subtly in the larger ones. When compared with other species of the genus, the G-banding patterns showed a marked similarity between them. The first karyotypic description of the species will aid in future studies and the understanding of evolutionary aspects of this family. From the morphological point of view, we carried out studies of fluctuating asymmetry in sea turtle Eretmochelys imbricata, using methods of benchmarking between hatchlings and adults and their implications for natural selection. Data were collected at two different times: first during the spawning female and the second during the outbreak and birth of the nest. The analyzed characteristics consisted of measurements of length and width of front and rear flippers (CANT, LANT, CPOS and LPOS) also collected data on the number of hull plates, side plates (NPL), the surrounding plates (NPCIRC), and plastron; plates power plants (NPP), inframarginais plates (NPIM). With the values of asymmetry we calculated the value of strict heritability for these traits, the calculation was based on only one parent. A nonparametric analysis Mann-Whitneywas performed to compare the groups (females X hatchlings, newborn hatchlings X dead hatchlings). Adult females showed no bilateral fluctuating asymmetry (FA = 0) on the number plates of the hull and plastron, while offspring, living and dead, showed a greater level of variation in these meristic parameters. In the analysis of females x hatchlings we found a significant difference between the levels of asymmetry in hoof plates (p=0.006) an the width of hindlimbs (p=0.001). Levels of FA suggest an accurate indicator as to the viability or maintenance of the individual to the reproductive phase. The coefficient of heritability (h2) of FA , obtained from the regression analysis, showed that both have low and not statistically significant values(p> 0.1). In the case of exclusion of the effective role of genetics in the generation of FA, reproductive strategies based on high number of subsidiaries products, such as those observed in E. imbricata seems to implicate the production of individuals with high level of developmental instability

Ecologia trófica de anfíbios anuros: relações filogenéticas em diferentes escalas

Understand the origin, maintenance and the mechanisms that operate in the current biodiversity is the major goal of ecology. Species ecology can be influenced by different factors at different scales. There are three approaches about the ecological differences between species: the first brings that differences result from current processes on niche characteristics (e.g. diet, time, space); the second that species differences are explained by random patterns of speciation, extinction and dispersion, the third that historical events explain the formation and composition of species in communities. This study aims to evaluate the influence of phylogenetic relationships in determining ecological characteristics in amphibians (globally) and test with that, if ecological differences between species of frogs are the result of ancient pre-existing differences or as result of current interactions. Another objective of this study is to verify if ecological, historical or current characteristics determine the size of species geographical distribution. The diet data for analysis of trophic ecology were collected from published literature. We performed a non-parametric MANOVA to test the existence of phylogenetic effects in diet shifts on frogs history. Thus, it is expected to know the main factors that allow the coexistence of anuran species. We performed a phylogenetic regression to analyze if niche breadth, body size and evolutionary age variables determine the size of the geographical distribution of amphibians in the Amazon. In the present study, new contributions to knowledge of major ecological patterns of anurans are discussed under a phylogenetic perspective

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estimates of genetic parameters for scrotal circumference using random regression models in Nelore cattle

A total of 15,901 scrotal circumference (SC) records from 5300 Nelore bulls, ranging from 229 to 560 days of age, were used with the objective of estimating (co)variance functions for SC, using random regression models. Models included the fixed effects of contemporary group and age of dam at calving as covariable (linear and quadratic effects). To model the population mean trend, a third order Legendre polynomial on animal age was utilized. The direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental random effects were modeled by Legendre polynomials on animal age, with orders of fit ranging from 1 to 5. Residual variances were modeled considering 1 (homogeneity of variance) or 4 age classes. Results obtained with the random regression models were compared to multi-trait analysis. (Co)variance estimates using multi-trait and random regression models were similar. The model considering a third- and fifth-order Legendre polynomials for additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, was the most adequate to model changes in variance of SC with age. Heritability estimates for SC ranged from 0.24 (229 days of age) to 0.47 (300 days of age), remained almost constant until 500 days of age (0.52), decreasing thereafter (0.44). In general, the genetic correlations between measures of scrotal circumference obtained from 229 to 560 days of age decreased with increasing distance between ages. For genetic evaluation scrotal circumference could be measured between 400 and 500 days of age. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Random regression analyses using B-splines functions to model growth from birth to adult age in Canchim cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Random regression models to estimate genetic parameters for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Murrah buffaloes

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)