水资源分配的决策模型及应用

水资源规划是一个复杂的系统规划问题,所以,在水资源规划中,含有大量的不精确的统计数据和模糊关系。由于这些特点,水资源规划必须用特殊的方法来解决。 本文将层次分析法(AHP)和模糊规划(Fuzzy Programming)方法相结合,形成了一种多目标规划的求解方法,并应用于大凌河流域水资源规划研究的课题中,通过实际分析可以看到,这种方法具有较好的实用性。

Collocation Games and Their Application to Distributed Resource Management

We introduce Collocation Games as the basis of a general framework for modeling, analyzing, and facilitating the interactions between the various stakeholders in distributed systems in general, and in cloud computing environments in particular. Cloud computing enables fixed-capacity (processing, communication, and storage) resources to be offered by infrastructure providers as commodities for sale at a fixed cost in an open marketplace to independent, rational parties (players) interested in setting up their own applications over the Internet. Virtualization technologies enable the partitioning of such fixed-capacity resources so as to allow each player to dynamically acquire appropriate fractions of the resources for unencumbered use. In such a paradigm, the resource management problem reduces to that of partitioning the entire set of applications (players) into subsets, each of which is assigned to fixed-capacity cloud resources. If the infrastructure and the various applications are under a single administrative domain, this partitioning reduces to an optimization problem whose objective is to minimize the overall deployment cost. In a marketplace, in which the infrastructure provider is interested in maximizing its own profit, and in which each player is interested in minimizing its own cost, it should be evident that a global optimization is precisely the wrong framework. Rather, in this paper we use a game-theoretic framework in which the assignment of players to fixed-capacity resources is the outcome of a strategic "Collocation Game". Although we show that determining the existence of an equilibrium for collocation games in general is NP-hard, we present a number of simplified, practically-motivated variants of the collocation game for which we establish convergence to a Nash Equilibrium, and for which we derive convergence and price of anarchy bounds. In addition to these analytical results, we present an experimental evaluation of implementations of some of these variants for cloud infrastructures consisting of a collection of multidimensional resources of homogeneous or heterogeneous capacities. Experimental results using trace-driven simulations and synthetically generated datasets corroborate our analytical results and also illustrate how collocation games offer a feasible distributed resource management alternative for autonomic/self-organizing systems, in which the adoption of a global optimization approach (centralized or distributed) would be neither practical nor justifiable.

Design Optimization and Security For Communication Networks

In this work we introduce a new mathematical tool for optimization of routes, topology design, and energy efficiency in wireless sensor networks. We introduce a vector field formulation that models communication in the network, and routing is performed in the direction of this vector field at every location of the network. The magnitude of the vector field at every location represents the density of amount of data that is being transited through that location. We define the total communication cost in the network as the integral of a quadratic form of the vector field over the network area. With the above formulation, we introduce a mathematical machinery based on partial differential equations very similar to the Maxwell's equations in electrostatic theory. We show that in order to minimize the cost, the routes should be found based on the solution of these partial differential equations. In our formulation, the sensors are sources of information, and they are similar to the positive charges in electrostatics, the destinations are sinks of information and they are similar to negative charges, and the network is similar to a non-homogeneous dielectric media with variable dielectric constant (or permittivity coefficient). In one of the applications of our mathematical model based on the vector fields, we offer a scheme for energy efficient routing. Our routing scheme is based on changing the permittivity coefficient to a higher value in the places of the network where nodes have high residual energy, and setting it to a low value in the places of the network where the nodes do not have much energy left. Our simulations show that our method gives a significant increase in the network life compared to the shortest path and weighted shortest path schemes. Our initial focus is on the case where there is only one destination in the network, and later we extend our approach to the case where there are multiple destinations in the network. In the case of having multiple destinations, we need to partition the network into several areas known as regions of attraction of the destinations. Each destination is responsible for collecting all messages being generated in its region of attraction. The complexity of the optimization problem in this case is how to define regions of attraction for the destinations and how much communication load to assign to each destination to optimize the performance of the network. We use our vector field model to solve the optimization problem for this case. We define a vector field, which is conservative, and hence it can be written as the gradient of a scalar field (also known as a potential field). Then we show that in the optimal assignment of the communication load of the network to the destinations, the value of that potential field should be equal at the locations of all the destinations. Another application of our vector field model is to find the optimal locations of the destinations in the network. We show that the vector field gives the gradient of the cost function with respect to the locations of the destinations. Based on this fact, we suggest an algorithm to be applied during the design phase of a network to relocate the destinations for reducing the communication cost function. The performance of our proposed schemes is confirmed by several examples and simulation experiments. In another part of this work we focus on the notions of responsiveness and conformance of TCP traffic in communication networks. We introduce the notion of responsiveness for TCP aggregates and define it as the degree to which a TCP aggregate reduces its sending rate to the network as a response to packet drops. We define metrics that describe the responsiveness of TCP aggregates, and suggest two methods for determining the values of these quantities. The first method is based on a test in which we drop a few packets from the aggregate intentionally and measure the resulting rate decrease of that aggregate. This kind of test is not robust to multiple simultaneous tests performed at different routers. We make the test robust to multiple simultaneous tests by using ideas from the CDMA approach to multiple access channels in communication theory. Based on this approach, we introduce tests of responsiveness for aggregates, and call it CDMA based Aggregate Perturbation Method (CAPM). We use CAPM to perform congestion control. A distinguishing feature of our congestion control scheme is that it maintains a degree of fairness among different aggregates. In the next step we modify CAPM to offer methods for estimating the proportion of an aggregate of TCP traffic that does not conform to protocol specifications, and hence may belong to a DDoS attack. Our methods work by intentionally perturbing the aggregate by dropping a very small number of packets from it and observing the response of the aggregate. We offer two methods for conformance testing. In the first method, we apply the perturbation tests to SYN packets being sent at the start of the TCP 3-way handshake, and we use the fact that the rate of ACK packets being exchanged in the handshake should follow the rate of perturbations. In the second method, we apply the perturbation tests to the TCP data packets and use the fact that the rate of retransmitted data packets should follow the rate of perturbations. In both methods, we use signature based perturbations, which means packet drops are performed with a rate given by a function of time. We use analogy of our problem with multiple access communication to find signatures. Specifically, we assign orthogonal CDMA based signatures to different routers in a distributed implementation of our methods. As a result of orthogonality, the performance does not degrade because of cross interference made by simultaneously testing routers. We have shown efficacy of our methods through mathematical analysis and extensive simulation experiments.

Communications inspired linear discriminant analysis

We study the problem of supervised linear dimensionality reduction, taking an information-theoretic viewpoint. The linear projection matrix is designed by maximizing the mutual information between the projected signal and the class label. By harnessing a recent theoretical result on the gradient of mutual information, the above optimization problem can be solved directly using gradient descent, without requiring simplification of the objective function. Theoretical analysis and empirical comparison are made between the proposed method and two closely related methods, and comparisons are also made with a method in which Rényi entropy is used to define the mutual information (in this case the gradient may be computed simply, under a special parameter setting). Relative to these alternative approaches, the proposed method achieves promising results on real datasets. Copyright 2012 by the author(s)/owner(s).

Ranking of microRNA target prediction scores by Pareto front analysis

Over the past ten years, a variety of microRNA target prediction methods has been developed, and many of the methods are constantly improved and adapted to recent insights into miRNA-mRNA interactions. In a typical scenario, different methods return different rankings of putative targets, even if the ranking is reduced to selected mRNAs that are related to a specific disease or cell type. For the experimental validation it is then difficult to decide in which order to process the predicted miRNA-mRNA bindings, since each validation is a laborious task and therefore only a limited number of mRNAs can be analysed. We propose a new ranking scheme that combines ranked predictions from several methods and - unlike standard thresholding methods - utilises the concept of Pareto fronts as defined in multi-objective optimisation. In the present study, we attempt a proof of concept by applying the new ranking scheme to hsa-miR-21, hsa-miR-125b, and hsa-miR-373 and prediction scores supplied by PITA and RNAhybrid. The scores are interpreted as a two-objective optimisation problem, and the elements of the Pareto front are ranked by the STarMir score with a subsequent re-calculation of the Pareto front after removal of the top-ranked mRNA from the basic set of prediction scores. The method is evaluated on validated targets of the three miRNA, and the ranking is compared to scores from DIANA-microT and TargetScan. We observed that the new ranking method performs well and consistent, and the first validated targets are elements of Pareto fronts at a relatively early stage of the recurrent procedure. which encourages further research towards a higher-dimensional analysis of Pareto fronts. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decentralised formation control and stability analysis for cooperative multi-vehicle manoeuvre

Multi-vehicle cooperative formation control problem is an important and typical topic of research on multi-agent system. This paper presents a formation stability conjecture to conceive a new methodology for solving the decentralised multi-vehicle formation control problem. It employs the “extension-decomposition-aggregation” scheme to transform the complex multi-agent control problem into a group of sub-problems which is able to be solved conveniently. Based on this methodology, it is proved that if all the individual augmented subsystems can be stabilised by using any approach, the overall formation system is not only asymptotically but also exponentially stable in the sense of Lyapunov within a neighbourhood of the desired formation. Simulation study on 6-DOF aerial vehicles (Aerosonde UAVs) has been performed to verify the achieved formation stability result. The proposed multi-vehicle formation control strategy can be conveniently extended to other cooperative control problems of multi-agent systems.

Optimisation of Kinetic Parameters for an After-treatment Catalyst

Mathematical modelling has become an essential tool in the design of modern catalytic systems. Emissions legislation is becoming increasingly stringent, and so mathematical models of aftertreatment systems must become more accurate in order to provide confidence that a catalyst will convert pollutants over the required range of conditions. 
Automotive catalytic converter models contain several sub-models that represent processes such as mass and heat transfer, and the rates at which the reactions proceed on the surface of the precious metal. Of these sub-models, the prediction of the surface reaction rates is by far the most challenging due to the complexity of the reaction system and the large number of gas species involved. The reaction rate sub-model uses global reaction kinetics to describe the surface reaction rate of the gas species and is based on the Langmuir Hinshelwood equation further developed by Voltz et al. [1] The reactions can be modelled using the pre-exponential and activation energies of the Arrhenius equations and the inhibition terms. 
The reaction kinetic parameters of aftertreatment models are found from experimental data, where a measured light-off curve is compared against a predicted curve produced by a mathematical model. The kinetic parameters are usually manually tuned to minimize the error between the measured and predicted data. This process is most commonly long, laborious and prone to misinterpretation due to the large number of parameters and the risk of multiple sets of parameters giving acceptable fits. Moreover, the number of coefficients increases greatly with the number of reactions. Therefore, with the growing number of reactions, the task of manually tuning the coefficients is becoming increasingly challenging. 
In the presented work, the authors have developed and implemented a multi-objective genetic algorithm to automatically optimize reaction parameters in AxiSuite®, [2] a commercial aftertreatment model. The genetic algorithm was developed and expanded from the code presented by Michalewicz et al. [3] and was linked to AxiSuite using the Simulink add-on for Matlab. 
The default kinetic values stored within the AxiSuite model were used to generate a series of light-off curves under rich conditions for a number of gas species, including CO, NO, C_{3H8 and C3H6. These light-off curves were used to generate an objective function.} 
This objective function was used to generate a measure of fit for the kinetic parameters. The multi-objective genetic algorithm was subsequently used to search between specified limits to attempt to match the objective function. In total the pre-exponential factors and activation energies of ten reactions were simultaneously optimized. 
The results reported here demonstrate that, given accurate experimental data, the optimization algorithm is successful and robust in defining the correct kinetic parameters of a global kinetic model describing aftertreatment processes.

Topographical optimisation of single-storey non-domestic steel framed buildings using photovoltaic panels for net-zero carbon impact

A methodology is presented that combines a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural networks to optimise single-storey steel commercial buildings for net-zero carbon impact. Both symmetric and asymmetric geometries are considered in conjunction with regulated, unregulated and embodied carbon. Offsetting is achieved through photovoltaic (PV) panels integrated into the roof. Asymmetric geometries can increase the south facing surface area and consequently allow for improved PV energy production. An exemplar carbon and energy breakdown of a retail unit located in Belfast UK with a south facing PV roof is considered. It was found in most cases that regulated energy offsetting can be achieved with symmetric geometries. However, asymmetric geometries were necessary to account for the unregulated and embodied carbon. For buildings where the volume is large due to high eaves, carbon offsetting became increasingly more difficult, and not possible in certain cases. The use of asymmetric geometries was found to allow for lower embodied energy structures with similar carbon performance to symmetrical structures.

Towards rational catalyst design: a general optimization framework

Rational catalyst design is one of the most fundamental goals in heterogeneous catalysis. Herein, we briefly review our previous design work, and then introduce a general optimization framework, which converts catalyst design into an optimization problem. Furthermore, an example is given using the gradient ascent method to show how this framework can be used for rational catalyst design. This framework may be applied to other design schemes.

A Constrained Optimization Approach to Dynamic State Estimation for Power Systems Including PMU and Missing Measurements.

In this brief, a hybrid filter algorithm is developed to deal with the state estimation (SE) problem for power systems by taking into account the impact from the phasor measurement units (PMUs). Our aim is to include PMU measurements when designing the dynamic state estimators for power systems with traditional measurements. Also, as data dropouts inevitably occur in the transmission channels of traditional measurements from the meters to the control center, the missing measurement phenomenon is also tackled in the state estimator design. In the framework of extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm, the PMU measurements are treated as inequality constraints on the states with the aid of the statistical criterion, and then the addressed SE problem becomes a constrained optimization one based on the probability-maximization method. The resulting constrained optimization problem is then solved using the particle swarm optimization algorithm together with the penalty function approach. The proposed algorithm is applied to estimate the states of the power systems with both traditional and PMU measurements in the presence of probabilistic data missing phenomenon. Extensive simulations are carried out on the IEEE 14-bus test system and it is shown that the proposed algorithm gives much improved estimation performances over the traditional EKF method.

Statistical Tests for Joint Analysis of Performance Measures

Recently there has been an increasing interest in the development of new methods using Pareto optimality to deal with multi-objective criteria (for example, accuracy and architectural complexity). Once one has learned a model based on their devised method, the problem is then how to compare it with the state of art. In machine learning, algorithms are typically evaluated by comparing their performance on different data sets by means of statistical tests. Unfortunately, the standard tests used for this purpose are not able to jointly consider performance measures. The aim of this paper is to resolve this issue by developing statistical procedures that are able to account for multiple competing measures at the same time. In particular, we develop two tests: a frequentist procedure based on the generalized likelihood-ratio test and a Bayesian procedure based on a multinomial-Dirichlet conjugate model. We further extend them by discovering conditional independences among measures to reduce the number of parameter of such models, as usually the number of studied cases is very reduced in such comparisons. Real data from a comparison among general purpose classifiers is used to show a practical application of our tests.

Location-routing problems of semi-obnoxious facilities: approaches and decision support

A presente tese resulta de um trabalho de investigação cujo objectivo se centrou no problema de localização-distribuição (PLD) que pretende abordar, de forma integrada, duas actividades logísticas intimamente relacionadas: a localização de equipamentos e a distribuição de produtos. O PLD, nomeadamente a sua modelação matemática, tem sido estudado na literatura, dando origem a diversas aproximações que resultam de diferentes cenários reais. Importa portanto agrupar as diferentes variantes por forma a facilitar e potenciar a sua investigação. Após fazer uma revisão e propor uma taxonomia dos modelos de localização-distribuição, este trabalho foca-se na resolução de alguns modelos considerados como mais representativos. É feita assim a análise de dois dos PLDs mais básicos (os problema capacitados com procura nos nós e nos arcos), sendo apresentadas, para ambos, propostas de resolução. Posteriormente, é abordada a localização-distribuição de serviços semiobnóxios. Este tipo de serviços, ainda que seja necessário e indispensável para o público em geral, dada a sua natureza, exerce um efeito desagradável sobre as comunidades contíguas. Assim, aos critérios tipicamente utilizados na tomada de decisão sobre a localização destes serviços (habitualmente a minimização de custo) é necessário adicionar preocupações que reflectem a manutenção da qualidade de vida das regiões que sofrem o impacto do resultado da referida decisão. A abordagem da localização-distribuição de serviços semiobnóxios requer portanto uma análise multi-objectivo. Esta análise pode ser feita com recurso a dois métodos distintos: não interactivos e interactivos. Ambos são abordados nesta tese, com novas propostas, sendo o método interactivo proposto aplicável a outros problemas de programação inteira mista multi-objectivo. Por último, é desenvolvida uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão para os problemas abordados nesta tese, sendo apresentada a metodologia adoptada e as suas principais funcionalidades. A ferramenta desenvolvida tem grandes preocupações com a interface de utilizador, visto ser direccionada para decisores que tipicamente não têm conhecimentos sobre os modelos matemáticos subjacentes a este tipo de problemas.

Optimal control and numerical optimization applied to epidemiological models

A relação entre a epidemiologia, a modelação matemática e as ferramentas computacionais permite construir e testar teorias sobre o desenvolvimento e combate de uma doença. Esta tese tem como motivação o estudo de modelos epidemiológicos aplicados a doenças infeciosas numa perspetiva de Controlo Ótimo, dando particular relevância ao Dengue. Sendo uma doença tropical e subtropical transmitida por mosquitos, afecta cerca de 100 milhões de pessoas por ano, e é considerada pela Organização Mundial de Saúde como uma grande preocupação para a saúde pública. Os modelos matemáticos desenvolvidos e testados neste trabalho, baseiam-se em equações diferenciais ordinárias que descrevem a dinâmica subjacente à doença nomeadamente a interação entre humanos e mosquitos. É feito um estudo analítico dos mesmos relativamente aos pontos de equilíbrio, sua estabilidade e número básico de reprodução. A propagação do Dengue pode ser atenuada através de medidas de controlo do vetor transmissor, tais como o uso de inseticidas específicos e campanhas educacionais. Como o desenvolvimento de uma potencial vacina tem sido uma aposta mundial recente, são propostos modelos baseados na simulação de um hipotético processo de vacinação numa população. Tendo por base a teoria de Controlo Ótimo, são analisadas as estratégias ótimas para o uso destes controlos e respetivas repercussões na redução/erradicação da doença aquando de um surto na população, considerando uma abordagem bioeconómica. Os problemas formulados são resolvidos numericamente usando métodos diretos e indiretos. Os primeiros discretizam o problema reformulando-o num problema de optimização não linear. Os métodos indiretos usam o Princípio do Máximo de Pontryagin como condição necessária para encontrar a curva ótima para o respetivo controlo. Nestas duas estratégias utilizam-se vários pacotes de software numérico. Ao longo deste trabalho, houve sempre um compromisso entre o realismo dos modelos epidemiológicos e a sua tratabilidade em termos matemáticos.

Rural engineering infrastructures design and public facility locations

O desenvolvimento das redes de estradas rurais, especialmente em áreas montanhosas, é a intervenção chave para melhorar a acessibilidade às localidades e aos serviços públicos, cobrindo o maior número de localidades e de serviços públicos, otimizando os escassos recursos disponíveis em países em desenvolvimento. Este estudo explora diferentes modelos de organização de redes de estradas rurais considerando a construção de novas ligações ou o melhoramento de estradas existentes. Um método, baseado na cobertura da rede de estradas rurais, é utilizado para identificar os pontos nodais que formam a rede rural base numa específica região, a qual cobrirá um conjunto dos serviços públicos e de localidades. O modelo assenta numa rede rural de estradas típica ("backbone" e "branch") das regiões montanhosas do Nepal. Os modelos propostos fornecem um conjunto de possibilidades de ligações a estabelecer ou a melhorar e oferece soluções para diferentes níveis de orçamento, que otimizam os custos de transporte na rede, considerando diferentes tipos de pavimento (em solo, granular ou asfáltico). Foi realizado separadamente um modelo dedicado a análises multi-objetivo para resolver problemas de melhoramento de ligações dentro da rede considerando dois objectivos, minimizar os custos de operação para o utilizador e maximizar a população coberta pela rede de estradas, considerando ligações pavimentadas e não pavimentadas (em solo, granular ou asfáltico) dentro de um determinado limite orçamental. O modelo dá ao decisor (DM) diferentes alternativas eficientes para que este possa tomar uma decisão final. Estes modelos, desenvolvidos para redes de estradas rurais, são também aplicáveis a outras redes de infraestruturas rurais, tais como, de fornecimento de água, de eletricidade e de telecomunicações. A implementação dos modelos nas redes de estradas rurais dos distritos de Gorkha e Lamjung do Nepal permitiu confirmara sua aplicabilidade. Verifica-se que os modelos propostos são mais práticos e realísticos no estudo de soluções de melhoramento e de desenvolvimento de redes de estradas rurais em regiões montanhosas de países em desenvolvimento.

Intelligent predictive control for thermal comfort and energy savings in public buildings

This talk addresses the problem of controlling a heating ventilating and air conditioning system with the purpose of achieving a desired thermal comfort level and energy savings. The formulation uses the thermal comfort, assessed using the predicted mean vote (PMV) index, as a restriction and minimises the energy spent to comply with it. This results in the maintenance of thermal comfort and on the minimisation of energy, which in most operating conditions are conflicting goals requiring some sort of optimisation method to find appropriate solutions over time. In this work a discrete model based predictive control methodology is applied to the problem. It consists of three major components: the predictive models, implemented by radial basis function neural networks identifed by means of a multi-objective genetic algorithm [1]; the cost function that will be optimised to minimise energy consumption and provide adequate thermal comfort; and finally the optimisation method, in this case a discrete branch and bound approach. Each component will be described, with a special emphasis on a fast and accurate computation of the PMV indices [2]. Experimental results obtained within different rooms in a building of the University of Algarve will be presented, both in summer [3] and winter [4] conditions, demonstrating the feasibility and performance of the approach. Energy savings resulting from the application of the method are estimated to be greater than 50%.