Interactive effects of MC1R and OCA2 on melanoma risk phenotypes

The relationships between MC1R gene variants and red hair, skin reflectance, degree of freckling and nevus count were investigated in 2331 adolescent twins, their sibs and parents in 645 twin families. Penetrance of each MC1R variant allele was consistent with an allelic model where effects were multiplicative for red hair but additive for skin reflectance. Of nine MC1R variant alleles assayed, four common alleles were strongly associated with red hair and fair skin (Asp84Glu, Arg151Cys, Arg160Trp and Asp294His), with a further three alleles having low penetrance (Val60Leu, Val92Met and Arg163Gln). These variants were separately combined for the purposes of this analysis and designated as strong 'R' (OR=63.3; 95% CI 31.9-139.6) and weak 'r ' (OR=5.1; 95% CI 2.5-11.3) red hair alleles. Red-haired individuals are predominantly seen in the R/R and R/r groups with 67.1 and 10.8%, respectively. To assess the interaction of the brown eye color gene OCA2 on the phenotypic effects of variant MC1R alleles we included eye color as a covariate, and also genotyped two OCA2 SNPs (Arg305Trp and Arg419Gln), which were confirmed as modifying eye color. MC1R genotype effects on constitutive skin color, freckling and mole count were modified by eye color, but not genotype for these two OCA2 SNPs. This is probably due to the association of these OCA2 SNPs with brown/green not blue eye color. Amongst individuals with a R/R genotype (but not R/r), those who also had brown eyes had a mole count twice that of those with blue eyes. This suggests that other OCA2 polymorphisms influence mole count and remain to be described.

Casual jobs and internal labour markets

This paper examines the role of casual employment as a route into permanent employment. Using a competing risks framework we compare transitions from casual to permanent employment made within the firm and to other firms. We also examine the wage outcomes and job durations of these two transitions. It is found that internal transitions occur at all occupational levels and display characteristics associated with probationary employment. Thus, as suggested by previous case study evidence, permanent positions at all levels in the firm are open to a degree of external competition.

Do risk factors for lactic acidosis influence dosing of metformin?

Background: Metformin is commonly prescribed to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, however it is associated with the potentially lethal condition of lactic acidosis. Prescribing guidelines have been developed to minimize the risk of lactic acidosis development, although some suggest they are inappropriate and have created confusion amongst prescribers. The aim of this study was to investigate whether metformin dose was influenced by the presence of risk factors for lactic acidosis. Methods: The study was prospective, and retrieved information from patients admitted to hospital who were prescribed metformin at their time of admission. Results: Eighty-three patients were included in the study, 60 of whom had a least one risk factor for lactic acidosis. Of those 60 patients, 78.3% had a dose adjustment, with renal impairment, hepatic impairment, surgery and use of radiological contrast media - the risk factors most likely to result in a dose adjustment. When dose adjustments did occur, metformin was withheld on 88.7% of occasions. Conclusion: Metformin dose was influenced by the presence of risk factors for lactic acidosis, although it was dependent upon the number and particular risk factor/s present.

Alcohol, wine, and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Moderate alcohol intake can influence sex hormone levels and affect ovarian function as well as increasing breast cancer risk. This suggests that alcohol might also influence ovarian cancer risk. We have evaluated this among 696 Australian women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer and 786 cancer-free control women, selected at random from the electoral roll. Sociodemographic information and a detailed reproductive history were collected in a face-to-face interview, and information about diet and alcohol consumption was obtained from a food frequency questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Overall, 59% of women drank

Market failure in long-term private health insurance markets: a proposed solution

Recently, private health insurance rates have declined in many countries. In places requiring community rating in their health insurance premiums, a major cause is age-based adverse selection. However, even in countries without community rating, a de facto type of partial community rating tends to occur. In this note, a modified version of Pauly et al.'s guaranteed renewability model, which addresses the problem of age-based adverse selection (Pauly et al., 1995) is presented. Their model is extended from three to 35 periods. Also, probabilities are allowed to increase by age for low-risk types using actual age-based probabilities. This extension of their work shows that private health insurance contracts available stray far from optimal contracts that deal with age-based adverse selection. This suggests that government actions to affect private insurance options are warranted.

Lifetime cover in private insurance markets

In the last few decades, private health insurance rates have declined in many countries. In countries and states with community rating, a major cause is adverse selection. In order to address age-based adverse selection, Australia has recently begun a novel approach which imposes stiff penalties for buying private insurance later in life, when expected costs are higher. In this paper, we analyze Australiarsquos Lifetime Cover in the context of a modified version of the Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance model (Rothschild and Stiglitz, 1976). We allow empirically-based probabilities to increase by age for low-risk types. The model highlights the shortcomings of the Australian plan. Based on empirically-based probabilities of illness, we predict that Lifetime Cover will not arrest adverse selection. The model has many policy implications for government regulation encouraging long-term health coverage.

Occupational and non-occupational risk factors in bladder cancer patients in an industrialized area located in former east-Germany

Purpose: Several occupational carcinogens are metabolized by polymorphic enzymes. The distribution of the polymorphic enzymes N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2; substrates: aromatic amines), glutathione S-transferase M1 (GSTM1; substrates: e.g., reactive metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons), and glutathione S-transferase T1 (GSTT1; substrates: small molecules with 1 - 2 carbon atoms) were investigated. Material and Methods: At the urological department in Lutherstadt Wittenberg, 136 patients with a histologically proven transitional cell cancer of the urinary bladder were investigated for all occupations performed for more than 6 months. Several occupational and non-occupational risk factors were asked. The genotypes of NAT2, GSTM1, and GSTT1 were determined from leucocyte DNA by PCR. Results: Compared to the general population in Middle Europe, the percentage of GSTT1 negative persons (22.1%) was ordinary; the percentage of slow acetylators (59.6%) was in the upper normal range, while the percentage of GSTM1 negative persons (58.8%) was elevated in the entire group. Shifts in the distribution of the genotypes were observed in subgroups who had been exposed to asbestos (6/6 GSTM1 negative, 5/6 slow acetylators), rubber manufacturing (8/10 GSTM1 negative), and chlorinated solvents (9/15 GSTM1 negative). Conclusions: The overrepresentation of GSTM1 negative bladder cancer patients also in this industrialized area and more pronounced in several occupationally exposed subgroups points to an impact of the GSTM1 negative genotype in bladder carcinogenesis.

Modelling the effect of fibropapilloma disease on the somatic growth dynamics of Hawaiian green sea turtles

The effect of the tumour-forming disease, fibropapillomatosis, on the somatic growth dynamics of green turtles resident in the Pala'au foraging grounds (Moloka'i, Hawai'i) was evaluated using a Bayesian generalised additive mixed modelling approach. This regression model enabled us to account for fixed effects (fibropapilloma tumour severity), nonlinear covariate functional form (carapace size, sampling year) as well as random effects due to individual heterogeneity and correlation between repeated growth measurements on some turtles. Somatic growth rates were found to be nonlinear functions of carapace size and sampling year but were not a function of low-to-moderate tumour severity. On the other hand, growth rates were significantly lower for turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis, which suggests a limited or threshold-specific disease effect. However, tumour severity was an increasing function of carapace size-larger turtles tended to have higher tumour severity scores, presumably due to longer exposure of larger (older) turtles to the factors that cause the disease. Hence turtles with advanced fibropapillomatosis tended to be the larger turtles, which confounds size and tumour severity in this study. But somatic growth rates for the Pala'au population have also declined since the mid-1980s (sampling year effect) while disease prevalence and severity increased from the mid-1980s before levelling off by the mid-1990s. It is unlikely that this decline was related to the increasing tumour severity because growth rates have also declined over the last 10-20 years for other green turtle populations resident in Hawaiian waters that have low or no disease prevalence. The declining somatic growth rate trends evident in the Hawaiian stock are more likely a density-dependent effect caused by a dramatic increase in abundance by this once-seriously-depleted stock since the mid-1980s. So despite increasing fibropapillomatosis risk over the last 20 years, only a limited effect on somatic growth dynamics was apparent and the Hawaiian green turtle stock continues to increase in abundance.

Height, age at menarche, and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Objective: We hypothesized that the hormonal changes of adolescence influence ovarian cancer risk particularly in younger women. We investigated this possibility by examining the relationship between ovarian cancer and adult height and age at menarche as both factors reflect pubertal hormonal levels. Methods: Participants were a population-based sample of women with incident ovarian cancer (n = 794) and control women randomly selected from the Australian Electoral Roll (n = 855). The women provided comprehensive reproductive and lifestyle data during a standard interview. Results: Although neither height nor age at menarche was significantly related to the risk of ovarian cancer overall, increasing height was associated with increasing risk of the subgroup of mucinous borderline ovarian cancer (odds ratio, 5.3; 95% confidence interval, 1.5-19.1 for women 175 cm compared with women < 160 cm, P-trend = 0.02). Similarly, later age at menarche was associated with increasing risk of mucinous borderline cancers (odds ratio, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-11.4 for those with age at menarche >= 44 years compared with those < 12 years, P-trend = 0.003). Women with mucinous borderline cancers were significantly younger than the women diagnosed with invasive cancers (mean 44 versus 57 years; P < 0.0001). Conclusions: Development of mucinous borderline ovarian cancers, predominantly diagnosed in women ages under 50 years, seems to be associated with age at menarche and attained adult height. These results are consistent with our original hypothesis that pubertal levels of reproductive hormones and insulin-like growth factor-I influence ovarian cancer risk in younger women.

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conditional risk, return and contagion in the banking sector in Asia

This paper investigates risk and return in the banking sector in three Asian markets of Taiwan, China and Hong Kong. The study focuses on the risk-return relation in a conditional factor GARCH-M framework that controls for time-series effects. The factor approach is adopted to incorporate intra-industry contagion and an analysis of spillovers between large banks and small banks. Finally, the study provides evidence on these relations before and after the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The results are generally consistent across the markets and with expectations.

Lifetime Subsidies in Australian Private Health Insurance Markets with Community Rating

This paper considers the problem of inducing low-risk individuals of all ages to buy private health insurance in Australia. Our proposed subsidy scheme improves upon the age-based penalty scheme under the current "Australian Lifetime Cover" (LTC) scheme. We generate an alternative subsidy profile that obviates adverse selection in private health insurance markets with mandated, age-based, community rating. Our proposal is novel in that we generate subsidies that are both risk- and age-specific, based upon actual risk probabilities. The approach we take may prove useful in other jurisdictions where the extant law mandates community rating in private health insurance markets. Furthermore, our approach is useful in jurisdictions that seek to maintain private insurance to complement existing universal public systems.

Benign epithelial ovarian tumours - cancer precursors or markers for ovarian cancer risk?

The natural history of the development of epithelial ovarian cancer remains obscure and no effective screening test exists. In several human malignancies progression from benign to invasive tumour occurs, but this sequence has not been established for epithelial ovarian cancer. We have reviewed epidemiological, histopathological and molecular studies of benign epithelial ovarian tumours to assess the evidence for and against such a progression in ovarian cancer. These data suggest that a diagnosis of a benign ovarian cyst or tumour is associated with an increased risk of ovarian cancer later in life. Current evidence also suggests that benign serous tumours can progress to low-grade serous cancer and that benign mucinous tumours can progress to mucinous cancer. The more common high-grade serous ovarian cancers are likely to arise de novo.

Food intake and risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in a community: The Nambour skin cancer cohort study

There is some evidence that dietary factors may modify the risk of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the skin, but the association between food intake and SCC has not been evaluated prospectively. We examined the association between food intake and SCC incidence among 1,056 randomly selected adults living in an Australian sub-tropical community. Measurement-error corrected estimates of intake in 15 food groups were defined from a validated food frequency questionnaire in 1992. Associations with SCC risk were assessed using Poisson and negative binomial regression to the persons affected and tumour counts, respectively, based on incident, histologically confirmed tumours occurring between 1992 and 2002. After multivariable adjustment, none of the food groups was significantly associated with SCC risk. Stratified analysis in participants with a past history of skin cancer showed a decreased risk of SCC tumours for high intakes of green leafy vegetables (RR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.22-0.91; p for trend = 0.02) and an increased risk for high intake of unmodified dairy products (RR = 2.53, 95% CI: 1.15-5.54; p for trend = 0.03). Food intake was not associated with SCC risk in persons who had no past history of skin cancer. These findings suggest that consumption of green leafy vegetables may help prevent development of subsequent SCCs of the skin among people with previous skin cancer and that consumption of unmodified dairy products, such as whole milk, cheese and yoghurt, may increase SCC risk in susceptible persons.