A coupled ocean-atmosphere system for short term forecasting in the southern european seas

This coupled model combines two state-of-the-art numerical models, NEMO for the oceanic component and WRF for the atmospheric component and implements them at an appropriate resolution. The oceanic model has been implemented starting from the Mediterranean Forecasting System with a resolution of 1/24° and the domain was extended to exactly match the grid of a newly implemented atmospheric model for the same area. The uncoupled ocean model has been validated against SST observed data, both in the simulation of an extreme event and in the short-term forecast of two seasonal periods. A new setup of the model was successfully tested in which the downward radiative fluxes were prescribed from atmospheric forecasts. Various physical schemes, domain, boundary, and initial conditions were tested with the atmospheric model to obtain the best representation of medicane Ianos. The heat fluxes calculated by the uncoupled models were compared to determine which setup gave the best energy balance between the components of the coupled model. The coupling strategy used is the traditional one, where the ocean is driven by the surface stress, heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes computed in the atmospheric component, which in turn receives the SST and surface currents. As expected, the overall skills of the coupled model are slightly degraded compared to the uncoupled models, even though the positioning and timing of the cyclone at the time of the landfall is enhanced. The mean heat fluxes do not change compared to the uncoupled model, whereas the pattern of the shortwave radiation and latent heat is changed. Moreover, the two energy fluxes are larger in absolute values than those calculated with the MFS formulas. The fact that they have opposite signs give raise to a compensation error that limits the overall degradation of the coupled simulation.

Effect Of Sodium Hypochlorite And Peracetic Acid On The Surface Roughness Of Acrylic Resin Polymerized By Heated Water For Short And Long Cycles.

To evaluate the surface roughness of acrylic resin submitted to chemical disinfection via 1% sodium hypochlorite (NaClO) or 1% peracetic acid (C2H4O3). The disc-shaped resin specimens (30 mm diameter ×4 mm height) were polymerized by heated water using two cycles (short cycle: 1 h at 74°C and 30 min at 100°C; conventional long cycle: 9 h at 74°C). The release of substances by these specimens in water solution was also quantified. Specimens were fabricated, divided into four groups (n = 10) depending on the polymerization time and disinfectant. After polishing, the specimens were stored in distilled deionized water. Specimens were immersed in 1% NaClO or 1% C2H4O3 for 30 min, and then were immersed in distilled deionized water for 20 min. The release of C2H4O3 and NaClO was measured via visual colorimetric analysis. Roughness was measured before and after disinfection. Roughness data were subjected to two-way ANOVA and Tukey's test. There was no interaction between polymerization time and disinfectant in influencing the average surface roughness (Ra, P = 0.957). Considering these factors independently, there were significant differences between short and conventional long cycles (P = 0.012), but no significant difference between the disinfectants hypochlorite and C2H4O3 (P = 0.366). Visual colorimetric analysis did not detect release of substances. It was concluded that there was the difference in surface roughness between short and conventional long cycles, and disinfection at acrylic resins polymerized by heated water using a short cycle modified the properties of roughness.

Using economic instruments to address emissions from air transport in the European Union

Air transport has become a vital component of the global economy. However, greenhouse-gas emissions from this sector have a significant impact on global climate, being responsible for over 3.5% of all anthropogenic radiative forcing. Also, the accrued visibility of aircraft emissions greatly affects the public image of the industry. In this context, incentive-based regulations, in the form of price or quantity controls, can be envisaged as alternatives to mitigate these emissions. The use of environmental charges in air transport, and the inclusion of the sector in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), are considered under a range of scenarios. The impacts of these measures on demand are estimated, and results suggest that they are likely to be minimal-mainly due to the high willingness to pay for air transport. In particular, in the EU ETS scenario currently favoured by the EU, demand reductions are less than 2%. This may not be true in the longer run, for short trips, or if future caps become more stringent. Furthermore, given current estimates of the social Cost Of CO2 as well as typical EU ETS prices, supply-side abatement would be too costly to be encouraged by these policies in the short term. The magnitude of aviation CO2 emissions in the EU is estimated, both in physical and monetary terms; the results are consistent with Eurocontrol estimates and, for the EU-25, the total social cost of these emissions represents only 0.03% of the region`s GDP. It is concluded that the use of multisector policies, such as the EU ETS, is unsuitable for curbing emissions from air transport, and that stringent emission charges or an isolated ETS would be better instruments. However, the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS has advantages under target-oriented post-2012 scenarios, such as policy-costs dilution, certainty in reductions, and flexibility in abatement allocation. This solution is also attractive to airlines, as it would improve their public image but require virtually no reduction of their own emissions, as they would be fully capable of passing on policy costs to their customers.

Three-monthly intravitreal bevacizumab injections for neovascular age-related macular degeneration: short-term visual acuity results

PURPOSE. To evaluate the change in vision after 3 monthly consecutive intravitreal injections of 1.25 mg of bevacizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS. A retrospective analysis of 35 eyes was performed. Visual acuity (VA) at initial visit and at each follow-up visit was compared. The injection of bevacizumab was performed at 30-day intervals and patients were observed for 5 months after the last injection. RESULTS. Of the 35 eyes, 9 had received previous treatment with photodynamic therapy with or without 4 mg of intravitreal triamcinolone. VA was measured in Snellen table and transformed into logMAR for statistical purposes. Mean age was 76.66 years (range, 49-90 years). There were 24(69%) women and 11(31%) men. Mean VA at the initial visit was 0.92 +/- 0.50. At month 1, mean VA was 0.84 +/- 0.51 and at month 2 was 0.74 +/- 0.51. At month 3, mean VA remained 0.74 +/- 0.49. Six and 8 months after the initial visit, VA was 0.79 +/- 0.49 and 0.77 +/- 0.50, respectively. The improvement in VA was statistically significant at month 2 and at the end of the follow-up (8 months) compared with the baseline VA. CONCLUSIONS. Three consecutive monthly injections of intravitreal bevacizumab to treat neovascular AMD is effective in improving VA in the short term. Longer prospective studies should be performed to confirm VA stability after the third injection. (Eur J Ophthalmol 2010; 20: 740-4)

A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early short-term versus prolonged low-dose methylprednisolone therapy in acute lung injury

The present study compared the effects of early short-term with prolonged low-dose corticosteroid therapy in acute lung injury (ALI). In total, 120 BALB/c mice were randomly divided into five groups. In the control group, saline was intratracheally (i.t.) instilled. In the ALI group, mice received Escherichia coli lipopolysaccharide (10 mu g i.t.). ALI animals were further randomised into four subgroups to receive saline (0.1 mL i.v.) or methylprednisolone (2 mg center dot kg(-1) i.v.) at 6 h, 24 h or daily (for 7 days, beginning at day 1). At 1, 3 and 8 weeks, in vivo and in vitro lung mechanics and histology (light and electron microscopy), collagen and elastic fibre content, cytokines in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and the expression of matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-9 and -2 were measured. In vivo (static elastance and viscoelastic pressure) and in vitro (tissue elastance and resistance) lung mechanics, alveolar collapse, cell infiltration, collagen and elastic fibre content and the expression of MMP-9 and MMP-2 were increased in ALI at 1 week. Methylprednisolone led to a complete resolution of lung mechanics, avoided fibroelastogenesis and the increase in the expression of MMP-9 and MMP-2 independent of steroid treatment design. Thus, early short-term, low-dose methylprednisolone is as effective as prolonged therapy in acute lung injury.

Short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the intensive care unit: prognostic factors

Decisions for intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in patients with advanced cancer are complex, and the knowledge of survival rates and prognostic factors are essential to these decisions. Ours objectives were to describe the short- and long-term survival of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to an ICU due to emergencies and to study the prognostic factors presented at ICU admission that could be associated with hospital mortality. We retrospectively analysed the charts of all patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted over a 1-year period. This gave a study sample of 83 patients. The ICU, hospital, 1-year and 2-year survival rates were 55.4%, 28.9%, 12.0% and 2.4% respectively. Thrombocytopenia (odds ratio 26.2; P = 0.006) and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) (odds ratio 1.09; P = 0.026) were independent factors associated with higher hospital mortality. In conclusion, the survival rates of patients with metastatic solid cancer admitted to the ICU due to emergencies were low, but of the same magnitude as other groups of cancer patients admitted to the ICU. The SAPS II score and thrombocytopenia on admission were associated with higher hospital mortality. The characteristics of the metastatic disease, such as number of organs with metastasis and central nervous system metastasis were not associated with the hospital mortality.

Evaluating the Guimarães 2012 European Capital of Culture (ECOC): a Tourist Perception Approach

Guimarães has hosted, during the year of 2012, one of the European Capital of Culture (ECOC). The evaluation of the event is needed as public, private and community funds are involved. The approach considers the tourists (domestic and international) as external and independent stakeholders who assessed the cultural activities developed during the event and the attributes of the city. The results of the survey show that hosting the 2012 ECOC was a major contribution for attracting new visitors to the city, although many of them just for a short period of time. The main source of general information collected by tourists was the Internet, and the traditional media. Only a small amount of respondents demonstrated a specialized knowledge of the cultural program. The most cited and appreciated performances came from the areas of music, exhibitions, and theatre. According to the perceptions of tourists, the tangible assets were clearly detached from the set of attributes of Guimarães, including buildings, churches and chapels, whereas intangible assets were less noted. Overall, Guimarães received a very positive evaluation related to city image and stay and is highly recommended by tourists to friends and relatives.

Evaluating the Guimarães 2012 European Capital of Culture: National and International Tourists’ Behaviors and Perceptions

In 2012, Guimarães hosted the European Capital of Culture (ECOC). An evaluation of this event was needed because public, private, and community funds were involved. This analysis considers tourists as external and independent stakeholders who assessed the cultural activities developed during the event as well as the attributes of the city. The main objectives of the research conducted were to assess the visitors` motivations during the hosting of the Guimarães ECOC 2012, their perceptions towards the city and if national and international visitors kept different perceptions of it. For two months, in the summer of 2012, a survey was applied to 390 visitors. The results revealed that hosting the 2012 ECOC was a major contribution towards attracting new visitors to the city (though many of the visitors stayed only for a short period of time). Based on tourists’ perceptions, the tangible heritage was clearly detached from the set of attributes associated to Guimarães, whereas the intangible heritage was less noted. The Portuguese tourists seem to be more prone to value the tangible heritage than the foreign tourists. Overall, Guimarães received a very positive evaluation relating to the city’s image and, as stated by tourists, visiting it was declared to be highly recommended. Following the obtained empirical results, the need for changing the city’s promoted image emerges, which has been too centered on its tangible heritage. In doing so, it is believed that there will be longer overnight stays by visitors.

Nonlinear optimization method for short-term hydro scheduling considering head-dependency

This paper is on the problem of short-term hydro scheduling, particularly concerning head-dependent reservoirs under competitive environment. We propose a new nonlinear optimization method to consider hydroelectric power generation as a function of water discharge and also of the head. Head-dependency is considered on short-term hydro scheduling in order to obtain more realistic and feasible results. The proposed method has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, providing a higher profit at a negligible additional computation time in comparison with a linear optimization method that ignores head-dependency.

The role of European "ro-ro" port terminals in the automotive supply chain management

The aim of this paper is concerned with the design and development of a functional framework for maritime mode integration in European automotive supply chain management when considering outbound distribution. Furthermore, it provides a readjustment of traditional concepts and terminology with findings that the role of ro-ro port terminals should be considered as decoupling points, poles and postponement platforms. Case studies examine relevant Western European ro-ro port terminals for cars and respective links to assembly/factories of vehicles localized in the hinterland and concludes that ro-ro port terminals reduce logistical friction and impedance, as well as promote space/time compression.

Microstrip antenna array for multiband dedicated short range communications systems

Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) is the key enabling technology for the present and future vehicular communication for various applications, such as safety improvement and traffic jam mitigation. This paper describes the development of a microstrip antenna array for the roadside equipment of a DSRC system, whose characteristics are according with the vehicular communications standards. The proposed antenna, with circular polarization, has a wide bandwidth, enough to cover the current European DSRC 5.8 GHz band and the future 5.9 GHz band for next generation DSRC communications. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Microwave Opt Technol Lett 53: 2794-2796, 2011; View this article online at wileyonlinelibrary.com. DOI 10.1002/mop.26394

Newspaper coverage impact on cultural events: Porto 2001 and Guimarães 2012: European Cultural Capitals

Artigo baseado na comunicação proferida no 1st International Symposium on Media Studies, realizado na Akdeniz Universitesi Yayınları, Antalya, Turquia, 21-23 de novembro de 2013

Short-term Value for the Water Stored in Headsensitivity Power System Reservoirs

As it is well known, competitive electricity markets require new computing tools for generation companies to enhance the management of its resources. The economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir is crucial information for enhancing the management of the reservoirs. This paper proposes a practical deterministic approach for computing the short-term economic value of the water stored in a power system reservoir, emphasizing the need to considerer water stored as a scarce resource with a short-term economic value. The paper addresses a problem concerning reservoirs with small storage capacities, i.e., the reservoirs considered as head-sensitivity. More precisely, the respective hydro plant is head-dependent and a pure linear approach is unable to capture such consideration. The paper presents a case study supported by the proposed practical deterministic approach and applied on a real multi-reservoir power system with three cascaded reservoirs, considering as input data forecasts for the electric energy price and for the natural inflow into the reservoirs over the schedule time horizon. The paper presents various water schedules due to different final stored water volume conditions on the reservoirs. Also, it presents the respective economic value of the water for the reservoirs at different stored water volume conditions.

Metaheuristic approach to the Holt-Winters optimal short term load forecast

Electricity short-term load forecast is very important for the operation of power systems. In this work a classical exponential smoothing model, the Holt-Winters with double seasonality was used to test for accurate predictions applied to the Portuguese demand time series. Some metaheuristic algorithms for the optimal selection of the smoothing parameters of the Holt-Winters forecast function were used and the results after testing in the time series showed little differences among methods, so the use of the simple local search algorithms is recommended as they are easier to implement.