An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados

This report analyses the coastal and human settlements, tourism and transport sectors in Barbados to assess the potential economic impact of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Barbados. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (tourism and transport sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The analysis has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create potential catastrophe in Barbados. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas. The A2 and B2 projections have indicated that the number of catastrophes that can be classified as great is likely to be increased for the country. This is based upon the possible effects of the projected unscheduled impacts to the economy both in terms of loss of life and economic infrastructure. These results arise from the A2 and B2 projections, thereby indicating that growth in numbers and losses are largely due to socioeconomic changes over the projection period and hence the need for increased adaptation strategies. A key adaptation measure recommended is for the government of Barbados to begin reducing the infrastructure deficit by continuously investing in protective infrastructure to decrease the country’s vulnerability to changes in the climate. With regard to the tourism sector, it was found that by combining the impacts due to a reduction in tourist arrivals, coral reef loss and SLR, estimated total economic impact of climate change is US $7,648 million (A2 scenario) and US $5,127 million (B2 scenario). An economic analysis of the benefits and costs of several adaptation options was undertaken to determine the cost effectiveness of each one and it was found that four (4) out of nine (9) options had high cost-benefit ratios. It is therefore recommended that the strategies that were most attractive in terms of the cost-benefit ratios be pursued first and these were: (1) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (2) artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) development of national adaptation plans (levee, sea wall and boardwalk); (4) revision of policies related to financing carbon neutral tourism; and (5) increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures. The total cost of climate change on international transportation in Barbados aggregated the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation, new climate policies and SLR. The impact for air transportation ranges from US$10,727 million (B2 scenario) to US$12,279 million (A2 scenario) and for maritime transportation impact estimates range from US$1,992 million (B2 scenario) to US$2,606 million (A2 scenario). For international transportation as a whole, the impact of climate change varies from US$12,719 million under the B2 scenario to US$14,885 million under the A2 scenario. Barbados has the institutions set up to implement adaptive strategies to strengthen the resilience of the existing international transportation system to climate change impacts. Air and sea terminals and facilities can be made more robust, raised, or even relocated as need be, and where critical to safety and mobility, expanded redundant systems may be considered.

Extensive Rhodolith Beds Cover the Summits of Southwestern Atlantic Ocean Seamounts

Calcium carbonate production by marine organisms is an essential process in the global budget of CO32-, and coralline reefs are the most important benthic carbonate producers. Crustose coralline algae (CCA) are well recognized as the most important carbonate builders in the tropical Brazilian continental shelf, forming structural reefs and extensive rhodolith beds. However, the distribution of CCA beds, as well as their role in CO32- mineralization in mesophotic communities and isolated carbonate banks, is still poorly known. To characterize the bottom features of several seamount summits in the Southwestern Atlantic (SWA), side-scan sonar records, remotely operated vehicle imagery, and benthic samples with mixed-gas scuba diving were acquired during two recent research cruises (March 2009 and February 2011). The tops of several seamounts within this region are relatively shallow (similar to 60 m), flat, and dominated by rhodolith beds (Vitoria, Almirante Saldanha, Davis, and Jaseur seamounts, as well as the Trindade Island shelf). On the basis of abundance, dimensions, vitality, and growth rates of CCA nodules, a mean CaCO3 production was estimated, ranging from 0.4 to 1.8 kg m(-2) y(-1) with a total production reaching 1.5 x 10(-3) Gt y(-1). Our results indicate that these SWA seamount summits provide extensive areas of shallow reef area and represent 0.3% of the world's carbonate banks. The importance of this habitat has been highly neglected, and immediate management needs must be fulfilled in the short term to ensure long-term persistence of the ecosystem services provided by these offshore carbonate realms.

Rhodolith Beds Are Major CaCO3 Bio-Factories in the Tropical South West Atlantic

Rhodoliths are nodules of non-geniculate coralline algae that occur in shallow waters (<150 m depth) subjected to episodic disturbance. Rhodolith beds stand with kelp beds, seagrass meadows, and coralline algal reefs as one of the world's four largest macrophyte-dominated benthic communities. Geographic distribution of rhodolith beds is discontinuous, with large concentrations off Japan, Australia and the Gulf of California, as well as in the Mediterranean, North Atlantic, eastern Caribbean and Brazil. Although there are major gaps in terms of seabed habitat mapping, the largest rhodolith beds are purported to occur off Brazil, where these communities are recorded across a wide latitudinal range (2 degrees N - 27 degrees S). To quantify their extent, we carried out an inter-reefal seabed habitat survey on the Abrolhos Shelf (16 degrees 50' - 19 degrees 45'S) off eastern Brazil, and confirmed the most expansive and contiguous rhodolith bed in the world, covering about 20,900 km(2). Distribution, extent, composition and structure of this bed were assessed with side scan sonar, remotely operated vehicles, and SCUBA. The mean rate of CaCO3 production was estimated from in situ growth assays at 1.07 kg m(-2) yr(-1), with a total production rate of 0.025 Gt yr(-1), comparable to those of the world's largest biogenic CaCO3 deposits. These gigantic rhodolith beds, of areal extent equivalent to the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, are a critical, yet poorly understood component of the tropical South Atlantic Ocean. Based on the relatively high vulnerability of coralline algae to ocean acidification, these beds are likely to experience a profound restructuring in the coming decades.

Climate signatures in corals of the tropical-temperate transition zone (Late Miocene, Crete/Greece)

The present study describes a Late Miocene (early Tortonian - early Messinian) transitional carbonate system that combines elements of tropical and cool-water carbonate systems (Irakleion Basin, island of Crete, Greece). As documented by stratal geometries, the submarine topography of the basin was controlled by tilting blocks. Coral reefs formed by Porites and Tarbellastrea occurred in a narrow clastic coastal belt along a „central Cretan landmass“, and steep escarpments formed by faulting. Extensive covers of level-bottom communities existed in a low-energy environment on the gentle dip-slope ramps of the blocks that show the widest geographical distribution within the basin. Consistent patterns of landward and basinward shift of coastal onlap in all outcrop studies reveal an overriding control of 3rd and 4th order sea level changes on sediment dynamics and facies distributions over block movements. An increasingly dry climate and the complex submarine topography of the fault block mosaic kept sediment and nutrient discharge at a minimum. The skeletal limestone facies therefore reflects oligotrophic conditions and a sea surface temperature (SST) near the lower threshold temperature of coral reefs in a climatic position transitional between the tropical coral reef belt and the temperate zone. Stable isotope records (δ18O, δ13C) from massiv, exceptionally preserved Late Miocene aragonite coral skeletons reflect seasonal changes in sea surface temperature and symbiont autotrophy. Spectral analysis of a 69 years coral δ18O record reveals significant variance at interannual time scales (5-6 years) that matches the present-day eastern Mediterranean climate variability controlled by the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO), the Northern Hemisphere’s dominant mode of atmospheric variability. Supported by simulations with a complex atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model, it is suggested, that climate dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and central Europe reflect atmospheric variability related to the Icelandic Low 10 million years ago. Usually, Miocene corals are transformed in calcite spar in geological time and isotope values are reset by diagenetic alteration. It is demonstrated that the relicts of growth bands represent an intriguing source of information for the growth conditions of fossil corals. Recrystallized growth bands were measured systematically in massive Porites from Crete. The Late Miocene corals were growing slowly with 2-4 mm/yr, compatible with present-day Porites from high latitude reefs, a relationship that fits the position of Crete at the margin of the Miocene tropical reef belt. Over Late Miocene time (Tortonian - early Messinian) growth rates remained remarkably constant, and if the modern growth temperature relationship for massive Porites applies to the Neogene, minimum (winter) SST did not exceed 19-21°C.

Marine biodiversity survey in the Northern Red Sea: a large-scale monitoring carried out in collaboration with volunteer divers

Concerns over global change and its effect on coral reef survivorship have highlighted the need for long-term datasets and proxy records, to interpret environmental trends and inform policymakers. Citizen science programs have showed to be a valid method for collecting data, reducing financial and time costs for institutions. This study is based on the elaboration of data collected by recreational divers and its main purpose is to evaluate changes in the state of coral reef biodiversity in the Red Sea over a long term period and validate the volunteer-based monitoring method. Volunteers recreational divers completed a questionnaire after each dive, recording the presence of 72 animal taxa and negative reef conditions. Comparisons were made between records from volunteers and independent records from a marine biologist who performed the same dive at the same time. A total of 500 volunteers were tested in 78 validation trials. Relative values of accuracy, reliability and similarity seem to be comparable to those performed by volunteer divers on precise transects in other projects, or in community-based terrestrial monitoring. 9301 recreational divers participated in the monitoring program, completing 23,059 survey questionnaires in a 5-year period. The volunteer-sightings-based index showed significant differences between the geographical areas. The area of Hurghada is distinguished by a medium-low biodiversity index, heavily damaged by a not controlled anthropic exploitation. Coral reefs along the Ras Mohammed National Park at Sharm el Sheikh, conversely showed high biodiversity index. The detected pattern seems to be correlated with the conservation measures adopted. In our experience and that of other research institutes, citizen science can integrate conventional methods and significantly reduce costs and time. Involving recreational divers we were able to build a large data set, covering a wide geographic area. The main limitation remains the difficulty of obtaining an homogeneous spatial sampling distribution.

Arterial Hypertension Refractory to Renal Denervation, Abdominal Pain and Claudication: Any Coral’ations?

Coral reef aorta is a rare form of calcifying atherosclerosis typically involving the supra and juxtarenal aorta. P atients classically present with refractory hypertension, intermittent claudication and abdominal angina. The treatment is either surgical via transaortic endarterectomy or through transferal endovascular stentgraft placement. Here we describe the case of a 45yearold female patient infected with human immuno deficiency virus, with resistant hypertension, lower limb and abdominal claudication, who was successfully treated with endovascular stent placement. We f urther provide a brief overview of the disease characteristics and treatment options.

Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

As long as global CO₂ emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

Age analysis, aragonite and high magnesium calcite content from different IODP Holes from Exp 310

The widespread occurrence of microbialites in the last deglacial reef frameworks (16-6 Ka BP) implies that the accurate study of their development patterns is of prime importance to unravel the evolution of reef architecture through time and to reconstruct the reef response to sea-level variations and environmental changes. The present study is based on the sedimentological and chronological analysis (14C AMS dating) of drill cores obtained during the IODP Expedition #310 "Tahiti Sea Level" on the successive terraces which typify the modern reef slopes from Tahiti. It provides a comprehensive data base to investigate the microbialite growth patterns (i.e. growth rates and habitats), to analyze their roles in reef frameworks and to reconstruct the evolution of the reef framework architecture during sea-level rise. The last deglacial reefs from Tahiti are composed of two distinctive biological communities: (1) the coralgal communities including seven assemblages characterized by various growth forms (branching, robust branching, massive, tabular and encrusting) that form the initial frameworks and (2) the microbial communities developed in the primary cavities of those frameworks, a few meters (1.5 to 6 m) below the living coral reef surface, where they heavily encrusted the coralgal assemblages to form microbialite crusts. The dating results demonstrate the occurrence of two distinctive generations of microbialites: the "reefal microbialites" which developed a few hundred years after coralgal communities in shallow-water environments, whereas the "slope microbialites" grew a few thousands of years later in significantly deeper water conditions after the demise of coralgal communities. The development of microbialites was controlled by the volume and the shape of the primary cavities of the initial reef frameworks determined by the morphology and the packing of coral colonies. The most widespread microbialite development occurred in frameworks dominated by branching, thin encrusting, tabular and robust branching coral colonies which built loose and open frameworks typified by a high porosity (> 50%). In contrast, their growth was minimal in compact coral frameworks formed by massive and thick encrusting corals where primary cavities yielded a low porosity (~ 30%) and could not host a significant microbialite expansion.

The hydropolyp fauna of the Red Sea area

46 hydropolyp species of 28 genera and 10 families were sampled during the "Meteor" passage 1964/65 (IIOE) through the Red Sea and its northern and southern exits and on the occasion of several ecological investigations of 29 selected coral reef sections of the central Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba. These collections comprise 128 single records of hydropolyp species. Three species and two genera each with one species are doubtful. 25 species, seven genera, one family and one subfamily, together from 49 records have not previously been found in the Red Sea and its exits. Including these newly reported species, the total list increases from 64 species and 112 records to 89 species and 240 single records and 51 additional ones. Scanning microscopical photos, made for the first time for the illustration of the hydropolyps, have been shown to be suitable for a better characterization and diagnosis of the species. Qualified results on the reasons for the horizontal distribution of the species known from the Red Sea area cannot be given because of the low number of samples sporadically distributed through the whole area. In contrast with this fact, the vertical spread of the species sampled seems primarily to be regulated by water exchange and light intensity. For example, four species of hydropolyps are excellent indicators of certain abiotic factors or combinations of them: Gymnangium eximium reacts extremely stenophote-photophobe-rheophil, Eudendrium ramosum moderately stenophote-photophobe-rheophobe, Lytocarpus philippinus moderately stenophote-photophil-rheophil, and Halocordyle disticha var. australis extremely stenophote-photophil but moderately rheophil. Other species have been found throughout all the light zones. Combined with the small size of their colonies their euryphotic behaviour does not allow their use as indicator species.

Altered neurotransmitter function in CO2-exposed stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus): a temperate model species for ocean acidification research

Studies on the consequences of ocean acidification for the marine ecosystem have revealed behavioural changes in coral reef fishes exposed to sustained near-future CO2 levels. The changes have been linked to altered function of GABAergic neurotransmitter systems, because the behavioural alterations can be reversed rapidly by treatment with the GABAA receptor antagonist gabazine. Characterization of the molecular mechanisms involved would be greatly aided if these can be examined in a well-characterized model organism with a sequenced genome. It was recently shown that CO2-induced behavioural alterations are not confined to tropical species, but also affect the three-spined stickleback, although an involvement of the GABAA receptor was not examined. Here, we show that loss of lateralization in the stickleback can be restored rapidly and completely by gabazine treatment. This points towards a worrying universality of disturbed GABAA function after high-CO2 exposure in fishes from tropical to temperate marine habitats. Importantly, the stickleback is a model species with a sequenced and annotated genome, which greatly facilitates future studies on underlying molecular mechanisms.

Sediment biogeochemistry at CO2 vents off Papua-New Guinea (2013, 2014)

Measurement of biogeochemical parameters in coral reef sediments at carbon dioxide vents off Upa-Upasina (Normandy Island, Papua-New Guinea). The data includes in-situ micro/minisensor profiles, sediment characteristics, microbial and meiofauna abundances of vent sediments and reference sites without vent influence.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, thickness and carbonate elemental composition of the test of juvenile sea urchins in a laboratory experiment

Ocean surface CO2 levels are increasing in line with rising atmospheric CO2 and could exceed 900 µatm by year 2100, with extremes above 2000 µatm in some coastal habitats. The imminent increase in ocean pCO2 is predicted to have negative consequences for marine fishes, including reduced aerobic performance, but variability among species could be expected. Understanding interspecific responses to ocean acidification is important for predicting the consequences of ocean acidification on communities and ecosystems. In the present study, the effects of exposure to near-future seawater CO2 (860 µatm) on resting (M O2rest) and maximum (M O2max) oxygen consumption rates were determined for three tropical coral reef fish species interlinked through predator-prey relationships: juvenile Pomacentrus moluccensis and Pomacentrus amboinensis, and one of their predators: adult Pseudochromis fuscus. Contrary to predictions, one of the prey species, P. amboinensis, displayed a 28-39% increase in M O2max after both an acute and four-day exposure to near-future CO2 seawater, while maintaining M O2rest. By contrast, the same treatment had no significant effects on M O2rest or M O2max of the other two species. However, acute exposure of P. amboinensis to 1400 and 2400 µatm CO2 resulted in M O2max returning to control values. Overall, the findings suggest that: (1) the metabolic costs of living in a near-future CO2 seawater environment were insignificant for the species examined at rest; (2) the M O2max response of tropical reef species to near-future CO2 seawater can be dependent on the severity of external hypercapnia; and (3) near-future ocean pCO2 may not be detrimental to aerobic scope of all fish species and it may even augment aerobic scope of some species. The present results also highlight that close phylogenetic relatedness and living in the same environment, does not necessarily imply similar physiological responses to near-future CO2.

Spatial community shift from hard to soft corals in acidified water

Anthropogenic increases in the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) cause ocean acidification, declining calcium carbonate saturation states, reduced coral reef calcification and changes in the compositions of marine communities. Most projected community changes due to ocean acidification describe transitions from hard coral to non-calcifying macroalgal communities; other organisms have received less attention, despite the biotic diversity of coral reef communities. We show that the spatial distributions of both hard and soft coral communities in volcanically acidified, semi-enclosed waters off Iwotorishima Island, Japan, are related to pCO2 levels. Hard corals are restricted to non-acidified low- pCO2 (225 µatm) zones, dense populations of the soft coral Sarcophyton elegans dominate medium- pCO2 (831 µatm) zones, and both hard and soft corals are absent from the highest- pCO2 (1,465 µatm) zone. In CO2-enriched culture experiments, high- pCO2 conditions benefited Sarcophyton elegans by enhancing photosynthesis rates and did not affect light calcification, but dark decalcification (negative net calcification) increased with increasing pCO2. These results suggest that reef communities may shift from reef-building hard corals to non-reef-building soft corals under pCO2 levels (550-970 µatm) predicted by the end of this century, and that higher pCO2 levels would challenge the survival of some reef organisms.

Species-specific consequences of ocean acidification for the calcareous tropical green algae Halimeda, 2011

Ocean acidification (OA), resulting from increasing dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) in surface waters, is likely to affect many marine organisms, particularly those that calcify. Recent OA studies have demonstrated negative and/or differential effects of reduced pH on growth, development, calcification and physiology, but most of these have focused on taxa other than calcareous benthic macroalgae. Here we investigate the potential effects of OA on one of the most common coral reef macroalgal genera,Halimeda. Species of Halimeda produce a large proportion of the sand in the tropics and are a major contributor to framework development on reefs because of their rapid calcium carbonate production and high turnover rates. On Palmyra Atoll in the central Pacific, we conducted a manipulative bubbling experiment to investigate the potential effects of OA on growth, calcification and photophysiology of 2 species of Halimeda. Our results suggest that Halimeda is highly susceptible to reduced pH and aragonite saturation state but the magnitude of these effects is species specific. H. opuntiasuffered net dissolution and 15% reduction in photosynthetic capacity, while H. taenicola did not calcify but did not alter photophysiology in experimental treatments. The disparate responses of these species to elevated CO2 partial -pressure (pCO2) may be due to anatomical and physiological differences and could represent a shift in their relative dominance in the face of OA. The ability for a species to exert biological control over calcification and the species specific role of the carbonate skeleton may have important implications for the potential effects of OA on ecological function in the future.