639 resultados para Contingency


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Contingency is the third term that inevitably accompanies crisis and critique. Traditionally, community has been conceived as one of the means to overcome contingency. Taking its cue from the recent work of Roberto Esposito on community and its strategies of immunization, and taking into account that globalization has led to new, contingent forms of community, the essay argues for a new poetics of community conceived as metonymic. The members of a community thus understood share nothing else but the sheer space of their coexistence. Such an approach, I argue, avoids the pitfalls of exclusion that any community conceived of as metaphoric – that is, as sharing a third element – necessarily implies.

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Today, there is little knowledge on the attitude state of decommissioned intact objects in Earth orbit. Observational means have advanced in the past years, but are still limited with respect to an accurate estimate of motion vector orientations and magnitude. Especially for the preparation of Active Debris Removal (ADR) missions as planned by ESA’s Clean Space initiative or contingency scenarios for ESA spacecraft like ENVISAT, such knowledge is needed. ESA's “Debris Attitude Motion Measurements and Modelling” project (ESA Contract No. 40000112447), led by the Astronomical Institute of the University of Bern (AIUB), addresses this problem. The goal of the project is to achieve a good understanding of the attitude evolution and the considerable internal and external effects which occur. To characterize the attitude state of selected targets in LEO and GTO, multiple observation methods are combined. Optical observations are carried out by AIUB, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) is performed by the Space Research Institute of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (IWF) and radar measurements and signal level determination are provided by the Fraunhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques (FHR). The In-Orbit Tumbling Analysis tool (ιOTA) is a prototype software, currently in development by Hyperschall Technologie Göttingen GmbH (HTG) within the framework of the project. ιOTA will be a highly modular software tool to perform short-(days), medium-(months) and long-term (years) propagation of the orbit and attitude motion (six degrees-of-freedom) of spacecraft in Earth orbit. The simulation takes into account all relevant acting forces and torques, including aerodynamic drag, solar radiation pressure, gravitational influences of Earth, Sun and Moon, eddy current damping, impulse and momentum transfer from space debris or micro meteoroid impact, as well as the optional definition of particular spacecraft specific influences like tank sloshing, reaction wheel behaviour, magnetic torquer activity and thruster firing. The purpose of ιOTA is to provide high accuracy short-term simulations to support observers and potential ADR missions, as well as medium-and long-term simulations to study the significance of the particular internal and external influences on the attitude, especially damping factors and momentum transfer. The simulation will also enable the investigation of the altitude dependency of the particular external influences. ιOTA's post-processing modules will generate synthetic measurements for observers and for software validation. The validation of the software will be done by cross-calibration with observations and measurements acquired by the project partners.

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The population of space debris increased drastically during the last years. Collisions involving massive objects may produce large number of fragments leading to significantly growth of the space debris population. An effective remediation measure in order to stabilize the population in LEO, is therefore the removal of large, massive space debris. To remove these objects, not only precise orbits, but also more detailed information about their attitude states will be required. One important property of an object targeted for removal is its spin period and spin axis orientation. If we observe a rotating object, the observer sees different surface areas of the object which leads to changes in the measured intensity. Rotating objects will produce periodic brightness vari ations with frequencies which are related to the spin periods. Photometric monitoring is the real tool for remote diagnostics of the satellite rotation around its center of mass. This information is also useful, for example, in case of contingency. Moreover, it is also important to take into account the orientation of non-spherical body (e.g. space debris) in the numerical integration of its motion when a close approach with the another spacecr aft is predicted. We introduce the two databases of light curves: the AIUB data base, which contains about a thousand light curves of LEO, MEO and high-altitude debris objects (including a few functional objects) obtained over more than seven years, and the data base of the Astronomical Observatory of Odessa University (Ukraine), which contains the results of more than 10 years of photometric monitoring of functioning satellites and large space debris objects in low Earth orbit. AIUB used its 1m ZIMLAT telescope for all light curves. For tracking low-orbit satellites, the Astronomical Observatory of Odessa used the KT-50 telescope, which has an alt-azimuth mount and allows tracking objects moving at a high angular velocity. The diameter of the KT-50 main mirror is 0.5 m, and the focal length is 3 m. The Odessa's Atlas of light curves includes almost 5,5 thousand light curves for ~500 correlated objects from a time period of 2005-2014. The processing of light curves and the determination of the rotation period in the inertial frame is challenging. Extracted frequencies and reconstructed phases for some interesting targets, e.g. GLONASS satellites, for which also SLR data were available for confirmation, will be presented. The rotation of the Envisat satellite after its sudden failure will be analyzed. The deceleration of its rotation rate within 3 years is studied together with the attempt to determine the orientation of the rotation axis.

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Domestic dog rabies is an endemic disease in large parts of the developing world and also epidemic in previously free regions. For example, it continues to spread in eastern Indonesia and currently threatens adjacent rabies-free regions with high densities of free-roaming dogs, including remote northern Australia. Mathematical and simulation disease models are useful tools to provide insights on the most effective control strategies and to inform policy decisions. Existing rabies models typically focus on long-term control programs in endemic countries. However, simulation models describing the dog rabies incursion scenario in regions where rabies is still exotic are lacking. We here describe such a stochastic, spatially explicit rabies simulation model that is based on individual dog information collected in two remote regions in northern Australia. Illustrative simulations produced plausible results with epidemic characteristics expected for rabies outbreaks in disease free regions (mean R0 1.7, epidemic peak 97 days post-incursion, vaccination as the most effective response strategy). Systematic sensitivity analysis identified that model outcomes were most sensitive to seven of the 30 model parameters tested. This model is suitable for exploring rabies spread and control before an incursion in populations of largely free-roaming dogs that live close together with their owners. It can be used for ad-hoc contingency or response planning prior to and shortly after incursion of dog rabies in previously free regions. One challenge that remains is model parameterisation, particularly how dogs' roaming and contacts and biting behaviours change following a rabies incursion in a previously rabies free population.

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Prostate cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer among men in the United States. In this study, evidence is presented to support the hypothesis that specific chromosomal aberrations (involving one or more chromosomal regions) are associated with prostate cancer progression from organ-confined to locally advanced tumors and that some aberrations seen in high frequency in metastatic tumors may also be present in a subset of primary tumors. To determine the appropriate approach to address this hypothesis, I have established a modified CGH protocol by microdissection and DOP-PCR for use in detecting chromosomal changes in clinical prostate tumor specimens that is more sensitive and accurate than conventional CGH methods. I have successfully performed the improved CGH protocol to screen for genetic changes of 24 organ confined (pT2) and 21 locally advanced (pT3b) clinical prostate cancer specimens without metastases (N0M0). Comparisons of tumors by stage or Gleason scores following contingency table analysis showed that seven regions of the genome differed significantly between pT2 and pT3b tumors or between low and high Gleason tumors suggesting that these regions may be important in local prostate cancer progression. These included losses on 6p21–25, 6q24–27, 8p, 10q25–26, 15q22–26, and 18cen–q12 as well as gain of 3p13–q13. Multivariate analyses showed that loss of 8p (step1) and loss of 6q25–26 (or 6p21–25 or 10q25–26) (step 2) were predictive of pathologic stage or Gleason groups with 80% accuracy. Additional 5–7 steps in the multivariate model increased the predictive value to 91–95%. Comparison of the CGH data from the primary prostate tumors of this study with those obtained from published literature on metastases and recurrent tumors showed that the clinically more aggressive stage pT3b tumors shared more abnormalities in high frequency with metastases and recurrent tumors than less aggressive stage pT2 tumors. Furthermore, loss of 11cen–q22 was shared only between the primary tumors and metastases while gain of Xcen–q13 and loss of 18cen–q12 were in common between primary and recurrent tumors. These analyses suggest that the multistage model of prostate cancer progression is not linear and that some early primary tumors may be predisposed to metastasize or evolve into recurrent tumors due to the presence of specific genetic alterations. ^

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Safer sex practices, such as consistent condom use, are essential to reduce HIV transmission. Determining causes and/or co-variants related to the likelihood of participating in high-risk sexual behaviors may allow the content of interventions and treatments to minimize HIV transmission to be tailored more effectively. The goal of this study was to examine whether a relationship exists between consistent condom use among African American HIV-positive crack cocaine users and both (1) the use of antiretroviral therapy, and (2) adherence to antiretroviral therapy regimens. The study population consisted of 390 participants. They were at least 18 years old, African American, HIV-positive, and had used crack cocaine within a month prior to an interview conducted sometime between April, 2004, and September, 2007. Bivariate associations were examined using contingency tables and χ2-statistics. The Mantel-Haenszel method was used to control for confounding. This study found neither a significant relationship between use of antiretroviral therapy and consistent condom use (Odds ratio (OR) = 1.38; 95% Confidence interval (95%CI) = 0.86–2.22), nor an association between antiretroviral therapy adherence and consistent condom use (OR = 1.02, 95%CI = 0.60–1.75). The exception was more consistent condom use when sex was traded for money or drugs in those on antiretroviral therapy, compared to those not on such therapy (OR = 2.28, 95%CI = 1.08–4.85). Further studies examining condom use and HIV treatment adherence are recommended. ^

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Using data from the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1982-1984 (HHANES) of the Nutritional Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), the heights, weights and arm circumferences of 217 Mexican-American children ranging in age from six to sixty months were examined to assess whether birth weight, parental stature, and economic status greatly influenced growth patterns of Mexican-American children living with both parents.^ Heights, weights, and arm circumferences were converted to standardized values of height-for-age, weight-for-age, and arm circumference-for-age using norms developed for Anglo-American children (NCHS, 1977).^ Correlation and contingency table analysis were performed to test hypotheses concerning factors found associated with the stature of children in earlier studies.^ While relationships among childhood stature and birth weight, parental stature, and economic status were in the expected direction, few were statistically significant due to the small number of cases in the analyses. Reliable conclusions concerning these relationships require a much longer sample of families. ^

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The research project is an extension of a series of administrative science and health care research projects evaluating the influence of external context, organizational strategy, and organizational structure upon organizational success or performance. The research will rely on the assumption that there is not one single best approach to the management of organizations (the contingency theory). As organizational effectiveness is dependent on an appropriate mix of factors, organizations may be equally effective based on differing combinations of factors. The external context of the organization is expected to influence internal organizational strategy and structure and in turn the internal measures affect performance (discriminant theory). The research considers the relationship of external context and organization performance.^ The unit of study for the research will be the health maintenance organization (HMO); an organization the accepts in exchange for a fixed, advance capitation payment, contractual responsibility to assure the delivery of a stated range of health sevices to a voluntary enrolled population. With the current Federal resurgence of interest in the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) as a major component in the health care system, attention must be directed at maximizing development of HMOs from the limited resources available. Increased skills are needed in both Federal and private evaluation of HMO feasibility in order to prevent resource investment and in projects that will fail while concurrently identifying potentially successful projects that will not be considered using current standards.^ The research considers 192 factors measuring contextual milieu (social, educational, economic, legal, demographic, health and technological factors). Through intercorrelation and principle components data reduction techniques this was reduced to 12 variables. Two measures of HMO performance were identified, they are (1) HMO status (operational or defunct), and (2) a principle components factor score considering eight measures of performance. The relationship between HMO context and performance was analysed using correlation and stepwise multiple regression methods. In each case it has been concluded that the external contextual variables are not predictive of success or failure of study Health Maintenance Organizations. This suggests that performance of an HMO may rely on internal organizational factors. These findings have policy implications as contextual measures are used as a major determinant in HMO feasibility analysis, and as a factor in the allocation of limited Federal funds. ^

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Objectives. The central objective of this study was to systematically examine the internal structure of multihospital systems, determining the management principles used and the performance levels achieved in medical care and administrative areas.^ The Universe. The study universe consisted of short-term general American hospitals owned and operated by multihospital corporations. Corporations compared were the investor-owned (for-profit) and the voluntary multihospital systems. The individual hospital was the unit of analysis for the study.^ Theoretical Considerations. The contingency theory, using selected aspects of the classical and human relations schools of thought, seemed well suited to describe multihospital organization and was used in this research.^ The Study Hypotheses. The main null hypotheses generated were that there are no significant differences between the voluntary and the investor-owned multihospital sectors in their (1) hospital structures and (2) patient care and administrative performance levels.^ The Sample. A stratified random sample of 212 hospitals owned by multihospital systems was selected to equally represent the two study sectors. Of the sampled hospitals approached, 90.1% responded.^ The Analysis. Sixteen scales were constructed in conjunction with 16 structural variables developed from the major questions and sub-items of the questionnaire. This was followed by analysis of an additional 7 structural and 24 effectiveness (performance) measures, using frequency distributions. Finally, summary statistics and statistical testing for each variable and sub-items were completed and recorded in 38 tables.^ Study Findings. While it has been argued that there are great differences between the two sectors, this study found that with a few exceptions the null hypotheses of no difference in organizational and operational characteristics of non-profit and for-profit hospitals was accepted. However, there were several significant differences found in the structural variables: functional specialization, and autonomy were significantly higher in the voluntary sector. Only centralization was significantly different in the investor owned. Among the effectiveness measures, occupancy rate, cost of data processing, total manhours worked, F.T.E. ratios, and personnel per occupied bed were significantly higher in the voluntary sector. The findings indicated that both voluntary and for-profit systems were converging toward a common hierarchical corporate management approach. Factors of size and management style may be better descriptors to characterize a specific multihospital group than its profit or nonprofit status. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

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This prospective observational cohort study investigated whether diabetic dental patients with poor glycemic control experience a higher risk of post-operative complications and diminished wound healing abilities after an oral surgical procedure such as implant placement. This study compared soft tissue oral wound healing complications between poorly controlled diabetic patients, well controlled diabetic patients and non-diabetic patients following surgical implant placement in the mandible with a total of 131 patients. A one week post-surgical follow-up visit involved an oral wound examination that consisted of evaluating for edema, erythema, exudate, oral pain, problems with flap closure, infection, and hematoma. Analyses were performed to determine significance differences in frequency of oral wound complications between the 3 diabetic groups. Two-by-two contingency tables using chi-square analysis were used to evaluate for significant differences in the proportion of each post-operative oral wound healing complication. This was done separately between non-diabetics and diabetics and between well-controlled and poorly controlled diabetics to calculate odds ratios. Confidence intervals were also calculated. This preliminary study showed that many of the complications were found not to be associated with diabetic status. Other complications such as edema and problems with flap closure were found to be less likely to occur in diabetics compared to non-diabetics and even in poorly controlled diabetics when compared to well-controlled diabetics. The results did not support the hypothesis that diabetic dental patients experience a higher risk than non-diabetic patients of post-operative soft tissue oral wound complications.^

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Documented risks of physical activity include reduced bone mineral density at high activity volume, and sudden cardiac death among adults and adolescents. Further illumination of these risks is needed to inform future public health guidelines. The present research seeks to 1) quantify the association between physical activity and bone mineral density (BMD) across a broad range of activity volume, 2) assess the utility of an existing pre-screening questionnaire among US adults, and 3) determine if pre-screening risk stratification by questionnaire predicts referral to physician among Texas adolescents. ^ Among 9,468 adults 20 years of age or older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2010, linear regression analyses revealed generally higher BMD at the lumbar spine and proximal femur with greater reported activity volume. Only lumbar BMD in women was unassociated with activity volume. Among men, BMD was similar at activity beyond four times the minimum volume recommended in the Physical Activity Guidelines. These results suggest that the range of activity reported by US adults is not associated with low BMD at either site. ^ The American Heart Association / American College of Sports Medicine Preparticipation Questionnaire (AAPQ) was applied to 6,661 adults 40 years of age or older from NHANES 2001-2004 by using NHANES responses to complete AAPQ items. Following AAPQ referral criteria, 95.5% of women and 93.5% of men would be referred to a physician before exercise initiation, suggesting little utility for the AAPQ among adults aged 40 years or older. Unnecessary referral before exercise initiation may present a barrier to exercise adoption and may strain an already stressed healthcare infrastructure. ^ Among 3181 athletes in the Texas Adolescent Athlete Heart Screening Registry, 55.2% of boys and 62.2% of girls were classified as high-risk based on questionnaire answers. Using sex-stratified contingency table analyses, risk categories were not significantly associated with referral to physician based on electrocardiogram or echocardiogram, nor were they associated with confirmed diagnoses on follow-up. Additional research is needed to identify which symptoms are most closely related to sudden cardiac death, and determine the best methods for rapid and reliable assessment. ^ In conclusion, this research suggests that the volume of activity reported by US adults is not associated with low BMD at two clinically relevant sites, casts doubts on the utility of two existing cardiac screening tools, and raises concern about barriers to activity erected through ineffective screening. These findings augment existing research in this area that may inform revisions to the Physical Activity Guidelines regarding risk mitigation.^

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Objective: The purpose of this study is to compare the stages of breast cancer presented between the insured and uninsured patients diagnosed at The Rose, an active non-profit breast healthcare organization to determine if uninsured patients present with more advanced stage breast cancer as compared to their insured counterparts. ^ Study Design: Retrospective cross-sectional study. ^ Methods: The study included 1,265 patients who received breast healthcare services and were diagnosed with breast cancer at The Rose between FY 2007 and FY 2012. 738 of the patients in the study were presumably uninsured since their breast healthcare services were sponsored through various funding sources and they were navigated into treatment through The Rose patient navigation program. We compared breast cancer stages for women who had insurance with those who did not have insurance. The effects of age and race/ethnicity along with the insurance status on the stage of reast cancer diagnosis were also analyzed. We calculated the odds ratio using the contingency tables; and estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using ordinal logistic regression by applying multiple imputation method for missing tumor stage data. ^ Results: The ordered logistic regression analysis with ordered tumor stage as dependent variable and uninsured as independent variable gave us an odds ratio of 1.73 (OR=1.73; p-value<0.05; 95% CI: 1.36 - 2.12). ^ Conclusions: Insurance status is a strong predictor of stage of breast cancer diagnosed among women seen at The Rose. Uninsured women seen at The Rose are almost twice as likely to present at a advanced stage of breast cancer as opposed to their insured counterparts.^

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The purpose of this dissertation was to develop a conceptual framework which can be used to account for policy decisions made by the House Ways and Means Committee (HW&MC) of the Texas House of Representatives. This analysis will examine the actions of the committee over a ten-year period with the goal of explaining and predicting the success of failure of certain efforts to raise revenue.^ The basis framework for modelling the revenue decision-making process includes three major components--the decision alternatives, the external factors and two competing contingency theories. The decision alternatives encompass the particular options available to increase tax revenue. The options were classified as non-innovative or innovative. The non-innovative options included the sales, franchise, property and severance taxes. The innovative options were principally the personal and corporate income taxes.^ The external factors included political and economic constraints that affected the actions of the HW&MC. Several key political constraints on committee decision-making were addressed--including public attitudes, interest groups, political party strength and tradition and precedents. The economic constraints that affected revenue decisions included court mandates, federal mandates and the fiscal condition of the nation and the state.^ The third component of the revenue decision-making framework included two alternative contingency theories. The first alternative theory postulated that the committee structure, including the individual member roles and the overall committee style, resulted in distinctive revenue decisions. This theory will be favored if evidence points to the committee acting autonomously with less concern for the policies of the Speaker of the House. The Speaker assignment theory, postulated that the assignment of committee members shaped or changed the course of committee decision-making. This theory will be favored if there was evidence that the committee was strictly a vehicle for the Speaker to institute his preferred tax policies.^ The ultimate goal of this analysis is to develop an explanation for legislative decision-making about tax policy. This explanation will be based on the linkages across various tax options, political and economic constraints, member roles and committee style and the patterns of committee assignment. ^

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Este estudio se realizó en una zona productora de uva de mesa de la provincia de San Juan, que incluyó los departamentos Zonda, Ullum, Albardón, Pocito, Caucete, 25 de Mayo, San Martín y 9 de Julio. De 335 explotaciones existentes, según la base obtenida a partir del CNA 2002, se tomó una muestra de 83 casos, para 2 sigmas de intervalo de confianza y 10 % de error. Los objetivos planteados fueron: determinar el nivel tecnológico para este rubro productivo, medir el grado de severidad de un grupo de restricciones asociadas a la incorporación de tecnología y estimar el beneficio económico alcanzado por el cierre de la brecha tecnológica. De este modo, se plantearon tres dimensiones de estudio, evaluando oportunamente las variables asociadas, de acuerdo a los estudios preeliminares. Los datos fueron procesados con el programa SPSS 11. Se realizó, para el estudio de la primera dimensión, análisis de componentes principales, escalamiento multidimensional y análisis de conglomerados no jerárquicos y en dos fases. En el caso de la segunda dimensión, se utilizaron tablas de contingencia con los estadísticos chi-cuadrado y t de student. Para estimar el beneficio económico alcanzado por el cierre de la brecha tecnológica, se utilizó un programa de simulación SIGMA 2.0. Se encontró la existencia de dos niveles tecnológicos dentro del rubro productivo uva de mesa de exportación, en donde existen inconvenientes referidos a la carencia de infraestructura, falta de rentabilidad asociada a los ingresos de la alternativa tecnológica, incompatibilidad entre los intereses al crédito que se puede acceder y las ganancias de la alternativa tecnológica y, por último, falta de planificación empresarial. Del cierre de la brecha tecnológica, en un escenario positivo, de cinco años, se concluye que el beneficio social medido como excedente bruto de la producción, puede ascender a casi $ 27 millones.

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El proceso de ordenamiento territorial en Bolivia es relativamente nuevo y por tal razón el avance es mínimo si se piensa en los objetivos alcanzados hasta ahora. El presente trabajo pretende mostrar el avance logrado en uno de los departamentos de Bolivia, Tarija, donde en 5 años, se ha logrado elaborar un plan departamental de ordenamiento territorial y mediante la coordinación interinstitucional (prefectura y gobiernos municipales) se ha iniciado el mismo proceso de a nivel municipal. A partir de estos planes municipales se induce a municipios predominantemente urbanos a trabajar planes de ordenamiento territorial a partir de lineamientos planteados desde la prefectura, con el fin de iniciar los procesos de planificación urbana, actualizar la normativa y elaborar proyectos de desarrollo local. El objetivo del presente trabajo, es mostrar los avances a los que se pretende arribar gracias a un proceso metodológico de ordenamiento territorial incorporado a una dinámica urbana que interactúa constantemente con su área de influencia que en el caso boliviano es normalmente rural; pero además demostrar que el componente interdisciplinario en el caso de la planificación urbana es imprescindible considerando que hasta hace unos años este era un trabajo especifico de los colegas urbanistas y que en una realidad como la latinoamericana casi siempre quedaba en planos y en un viejo anaquel. Por lo tanto a partir de una interdisciplinariedad se puede lograr desarrollo local articulando y optimizando relaciones urbano-rurales que basan su desarrollo en un proceso metodológico como es el caso del ordenamiento territorial. El trabajo, se apoya en la guía metodológica para la elaboración de planes elaboradas por el Ministerio de Desarrollo Sostenible del gobierno boliviano, pero como tal cual su nombre expresa es una guía susceptible a ser adecuada a las exigencias del área de estudio, en este sentido sobre esa base es que se incorporan algunas variables de estudio que permitirán mejorar el producto a nivel de propuesta una vez concluido el trabajo. Contempla varias etapas donde la incorporación de los diferentes actores sociales será una clave para lograr resultados exitosos en la etapa de implementación. Actualmente el plan municipal de la provincia Cercado, es un proyecto a encarar en los próximos meses una vez cumplidos con los requisitos administrativos para iniciar el trabajo técnico que comprenderá un trabajo de campo, para el relevamiento de datos, la elaboración de un diagnóstico integral con dos ámbitos territoriales rural y urbano, para luego proceder al análisis territorial y el planteamiento de propuesta que incluirán políticas, estrategias, acciones y proyectos, pero no solo generará bases para el uso de suelo y la ocupación del territorio, a escala urbana se plantearan los lineamientos para el diseño y la normativa urbana. A partir del cual se definirán proyectos de desarrollo local que nos permita orientarnos hacia la imagen objetivo planteada en la visión del proyecto, este trabajo incluye el aspecto institucional para fortalecer al proceso que hasta esta ahora se encuentra desarticulado; se pretende consolidar el proceso de ordenamiento y dar inicio a otros en escalas de mayor detalle permitiendo la optimización de recursos y el aprovechamiento de las potencialidades y recursos naturales para mejorar la calidad de vida.