Probabilidades imprecisas: intervalar, fuzzy e fuzzy intuicionista

The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

Catch-per-unit-effort: which estimator is best?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

O modelo keynesiano de James Meade

Este artigo reavalia o modelo simplificado da Teoria Geral de Keynes elaborado por James Meade e procura complementar alguns dos argumentos teóricos que Meade deixou apenas indicados. O artigo também responde às solicitações de Frisch a Meade, quanto à explicação do significado de estabilidade e à explicitação dos pressupostos que garantem suas conclusões. Além disso, apresenta alguns dos cálculos não desenvolvidos por Meade, e, quando necessário, suas devidas correções.

Characterization of the variable cow's age at last calving as a measurement of longevity by using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox model

In most studies on beef cattle longevity, only the cows reaching a given number of calvings by a specific age are considered in the analyses. With the aim of evaluating all cows with productive life in herds, taking into consideration the different forms of management on each farm, it was proposed to measure cow longevity from age at last calving (ALC), that is, the most recent calving registered in the files. The objective was to characterize this trait in order to study the longevity of Nellore cattle, using the Kaplan-Meier estimators and the Cox model. The covariables and class effects considered in the models were age at first calving (AFC), year and season of birth of the cow and farm. The variable studied (ALC) was classified as presenting complete information (uncensored = 1) or incomplete information (censored = 0), using the criterion of the difference between the date of each cow's last calving and the date of the latest calving at each farm. If this difference was >36 months, the cow was considered to have failed. If not, this cow was censored, thus indicating that future calving remained possible for this cow. The records of 11 791 animals from 22 farms within the Nellore Breed Genetic Improvement Program ('Nellore Brazil') were used. In the estimation process using the Kaplan-Meier model, the variable of AFC was classified into three age groups. In individual analyses, the log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test in the Kaplan-Meier model showed that all covariables and class effects had significant effects (P < 0.05) on ALC. In the analysis considering all covariables and class effects, using the Wald test in the Cox model, only the season of birth of the cow was not significant for ALC (P > 0.05). This analysis indicated that each month added to AFC diminished the risk of the cow's failure in the herd by 2%. Nonetheless, this does not imply that animals with younger AFC had less profitability. Cows with greater numbers of calvings were more precocious than those with fewer calvings. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2012.

Tourism and environment case study of Fort James Dickenson Bay, Antigua

Includes bibliography

Diálogos entre literatura e cinema: um estudo sobre The Dead de James Joyce

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A República Federativa ampliada versus democracia popular: o contributo de James Madison para a formação do sistema republicano norte-americano

Pós-graduação em História - FCHS

Espaço e focalização em The ambassadors, de Henry James

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A articulação das culturas humanísticas e científica por meio do estudo histórico-sociocultural dos trabalhos de James Prescott Joule: contribuições para a formação de professores universitários em uma perspectiva transformadora

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

O discurso da crítica literária universitária: sobre James Joyce e Ulysses

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

James Buchanan e a construção do consenso social

Este artigo pretende apresentar, de modo preliminar, uma exposição da teoria de James Buchanan sobre os temas relacionados a ação coletiva e as regras do processo decisorio no âmbito do Estado.

Quando gestos não políticos são políticos: a tradução brasileira de Giovanni's Room, de James Baldwin, e a questão da homossexualidade

This work is part of a research project on the role of translations of African-American literature in Brazil and their relation to issues of identity, discourse and aesthetics. It analyzes the translation, by Affonso Blacheyre, of Giovanni's room (1956), by James Baldwin, which was published in 1967 in Brazil. Baldwin is revered for his role in the Civil Rights Movement, having produced works that portray the contradictions of a democratic, but, at the same time, racist society. Giovanni's room was first rejected by his publisher for addressing homosexuality. The text displayed on the book flaps of the translation praises Baldwin's "work with language", in contrast to his anti-racism in other works. The praise of aesthetics of Giovanni's room is noteworthy, in contrast with the absence of any remarks on its critique of the marginalization of homosexuality. The focus on the aesthetics of the work corresponded to characters speaking a more formal register in the translation. Discourses on identity strengthening were less apparent in the 60s in Brazil in comparison to nowadays. The emphasis on aesthetics represented a seemingly "non-political" gesture that made it less shocking in the context of military dictatorship prevalent in the country at the time.

A produção técnico-científica de James Precott Joule: uma leitura a partir da epistemologia de Ludwig Fleck

This paper aims an epistemologically analysis of the attempt of James Prescott Joule to replace the steam engine by the electric one. In this historical analysis, we use the epistemological categories: style of thinking, collective thinking, intercollective circulation of ideas and practices,Joule and other technicians in Machester received in that time financial incentives from governments and industry to replace the steam engine by the electric one, since it was in Manchester a culture of the technique of the accuracy and precision in which Joule was immersed, which allowed us to initially identify the styles of techniques thinking and experimental efficiency. However, Joule could not replace the steam engine by the electric; and the awareness of the problems faced by him, in the attempt to make such a substitution, led him to seek, through an intercollective circulation of ideas and practices, such as the studies of Faraday and Jacobi, a change of direction in his researches. According to our analysis, what happened was a change of style from a technical to a scientific thinking. In this sense, Joule began to investigate issues of a scientific nature, as the Joule’s effect and the mechanical equivalent of heat, which contributed significantly to the establishment of the principle of conservation of energy. We present here the contributions of this epistemological analysis to the discussion of questions of the nature of science in the basic education and for the training of physics teachers.

A linguagem do espaço em Henry James: a fase madura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)