How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Modelo de ashkin-teller de três cores na rede ponte de wheatstone

In this work we study the phase transitions of the ferromagnetic three-color Ashkin-Teller Model in the hierarquical lattice generated by the Wheatstone bridge using real space renormalization group approach. With such technique we obtain the phase diagram and its critical points with respective critical exponents v. This model presents four phases: ferromagnetic, paramagnetic and two intermediates. Nine critical points were found, three of which are of Ising model type, three are of four states Potts model type, one is of eight states Potts model type and the last two which do not correspond to any Potts model with integer number of states. iv

Propagação de danos: importância da atualização dinâmica, efeitos da diluição e propriedades termodinâmicas

Neste trabalho investigamos aspectos da propagação de danos em sistemas cooperativos, descritos por modelos de variáveis discretas (spins), mutuamente interagentes, distribuídas nos sítios de uma rede regular. Os seguintes casos foram examinados: (i) A influência do tipo de atualização (paralela ou sequencial) das configurações microscópicas, durante o processo de simulação computacional de Monte Carlo, no modelo de Ising em uma rede triangular. Observamos que a atualização sequencial produz uma transição de fase dinâmica (Caótica- Congelada) a uma temperatura TD ≈TC (Temperatura de Curie), para acoplamentos ferromagnéticos (TC=3.6409J/Kb) e antiferromagnéticos (TC=0). A atualização paralela, que neste caso é incapaz de diferenciar os dois tipos de acoplamentos, leva a uma transição em TD ≠TC; (ii) Um estudo do modelo de Ising na rede quadrada, com diluição temperada de sítios, mostrou que a técnica de propagação de danos é um eficiente método para o cálculo da fronteira crítica e da dimensão fractal do aglomerado percolante, já que os resultados obtidos (apesar de um esforço computacional relativamente modesto), são comparáveis àqueles resultantes da aplicação de outros métodos analíticos e/ou computacionais de alto empenho; (iii) Finalmente, apresentamos resultados analíticos que mostram como certas combinações especiais de danos podem ser utilizadas para o cálculo de grandezas termodinâmicas (parâmetros de ordem, funções de correlação e susceptibilidades) do modelo Nα x Nβ, o qual contém como casos particulares alguns dos modelos mais estudados em Mecânica Estatística (Ising, Potts, Ashkin Teller e Cúbico)

Modelo de Ashkin-Teller anisotrópico: uma abordagem por grupo de renormalização

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Genome-Wide Survey of SNP Variation Uncovers the Genetic Structure of Cattle Breeds

The imprints of domestication and breed development on the genomes of livestock likely differ from those of companion animals. A deep draft sequence assembly of shotgun reads from a single Hereford female and comparative sequences sampled from six additional breeds were used to develop probes to interrogate 37,470 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 497 cattle from 19 geographically and biologically diverse breeds. These data show that cattle have undergone a rapid recent decrease in effective population size from a very large ancestral population, possibly due to bottlenecks associated with domestication, selection, and breed formation. Domestication and artificial selection appear to have left detectable signatures of selection within the cattle genome, yet the current levels of diversity within breeds are at least as great as exists within humans.

Purification of Candida guilliermondii and Pichia ohmeri killer toxin as an active agent against Penicillium expansum

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Algorithms for network piecewise-linear programs: A comparative study

Piecewise-Linear Programming (PLP) is an important area of Mathematical Programming and concerns the minimisation of a convex separable piecewise-linear objective function, subject to linear constraints. In this paper a subarea of PLP called Network Piecewise-Linear Programming (NPLP) is explored. The paper presents four specialised algorithms for NPLP: (Strongly Feasible) Primal Simplex, Dual Method, Out-of-Kilter and (Strongly Polynomial) Cost-Scaling and their relative efficiency is studied. A statistically designed experiment is used to perform a computational comparison of the algorithms. The response variable observed in the experiment is the CPU time to solve randomly generated network piecewise-linear problems classified according to problem class (Transportation, Transshipment and Circulation), problem size, extent of capacitation, and number of breakpoints per arc. Results and conclusions on performance of the algorithms are reported.

A novel biological activity for galectin-1: Inhibition of leukocyte-endothelial cell interactions in experimental inflammation

Galectin-1 (Gal-1), the prototype of a family of β -galactoside-binding proteins, has been shown to attenuate experimental acute and chronic inflammation. In view of the fact that endothelial cells (ECs), but not human polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMNs), expressed Gal-1 we tested here the hypothesis that the protein could modulate leukocyte-EC interaction in inflammatory settings. In vitro, human recombinant (hr) Gal-1 inhibited PMN chemotaxis and trans-endothelial migration. These actions were specific as they were absent if Gal-1 was boiled or blocked by neutralizing antiserum. In vivo, hrGal-1 (optimum effect at 0.3 μg equivalent to 20 pmol) inhibited interleukin-1β-induced PMN recruitment into the mouse peritoneal cavity. Intravital microscopy analysis showed that leukocyte flux, but not their rolling velocity, was decreased by an anti-inflammatory dose of hrGal-1. Binding of biotinylated Gal-1 to resting and post-adherent human PMNs occurred at concentrations inhibitory in the chemotaxis and transmigration assays. In addition, the pattern of Gal-1 binding was differentially modulated by PMN or EC activation. In conclusion, these data suggest the existence of a previously unrecognized function of Gal-1, that is inhibition of leukocyte rolling and extravasation in experimental inflammation. It is possible that endogenous Gal-1 may be part of a novel anti-inflammatory loop in which the endothelium is the source of the protein and the migrating PMNs the target for its anti-inflammatory action.

Clinical and molecular phenotype of Aicardi-Goutières syndrome

Aicardi-Goutières syndrome (AGS) is a genetic encephalopathy whose clinical features mimic those of acquired in utero viral infection. AGS exhibits locus heterogeneity, with mutations identified in genes encoding the 3′→5′ exonuclease TREX1 and the three subunits of the RNASEH2 endonuclease complex. To define the molecular spectrum of AGS, we performed mutation screening in patients, from 127 pedigrees, with a clinical diagnosis of the disease. Biallelic mutations in TREX1, RNASEH2A, RNASEH2B, and RNASEH2C were observed in 31, 3, 47, and 18 families, respectively. In five families, we identified an RNASEH2A or RNASEH2B mutation on one allele only. In one child, the disease occurred because of a de novo heterozygous TREX1 mutation. In 22 families, no mutations were found. Null mutations were common in TREX1, although a specific missense mutation was observed frequently in patients from northern Europe. Almost all mutations in RNASEH2A, RNASEH2B, and RNASEH2C were missense. We identified an RNASEH2C founder mutation in 13 Pakistani families. We also collected clinical data from 123 mutation-positive patients. Two clinical presentations could be delineated: an early-onset neonatal form, highly reminiscent of congenital infection seen particularly with TREX1 mutations, and a later-onset presentation, sometimes occurring after several months of normal development and occasionally associated with remarkably preserved neurological function, most frequently due to RNASEH2B mutations. Mortality was correlated with genotype; 34.3% of patients with TREX1, RNASEH2A, and RNASEH2C mutations versus 8.0% RNASEH2B mutation-positive patients were known to have died (P = .001). Our analysis defines the phenotypic spectrum of AGS and suggests a coherent mutation-screening strategy in this heterogeneous disorder. Additionally, our data indicate that at least one further AGS-causing gene remains to be identified. © 2007 by The American Society of Human Genetics. All rights reserved.

Estudo retrospectivo dos procedimentos anestésicos realizados em cães e gatos submetidos a neurocirurgias

Neurosurgeries are frequent in the routine of veterinary hospitals and, therefore, knowledge of the different anesthetic protocols to be used for each patient is necessary to prevent the morbity and mortality in the after and trans-surgical period. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the anesthetic protocols used in patients undergoing neurosurgeries; the results of those protocols; the rate of complications, and if those complications are related to the duration of the anesthesia time. We studied the anesthetical data of 52 dogs and two cats submitted to neurosurgery between January of 2003 and December of 2006, in the Veterinary Hospital of UEL. Findings showed that the main protocols used were propofol for induction and halothane or isofluorane for maintenance of the anesthesia. These protocols induced adequate anesthesia for the surgical procedure and did not occur complications during the anesthetic period in 37/54 (68,5%) of the cases. 7/19 (36.8%) of the complications observed occurred in patients submitted to anesthesia with halothane and 8/32 (25.2%) in patients with isofluorane. The complication most observed in this study was bradicardy, which occurred in 15/54 (27.8%) of the patients. Two deaths occurred in patients submitted to slot cervical. Good knowledge of the neurological disease and of surgical and anesthetic techniques are essential to prevent alterations in the central nervous system caused by the drugs, disease or association of these factors.

La gran crisis de la deuda latinoamericana: un decenio de ajuste asimétrico

Incluye Bibliografía

La gran crisis de endeudamiento: una década de ajuste asimétrico

Incluye Bibliografía

América Latina y el Caribe: opciones para reducir el peso de la deuda

Incluye Bibliografía

Modeling regional macroeconomic interactions: situation and perspectives for macroeconomic coordination in Latin America. Background paper prepared for the REDIMA workshop on Modeling Macroeconomic Coordination in the Andean Community, (Santiago, Chile 22 October 2003)""

Includes bibliography