920 resultados para Bayesian statistical decision theory


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Globalization and the developments of supply chain have made inexpensive labor and the low production costs of developing countries available to businesses worldwide. Unfortunately, these developments have also led to the exploitation of human and natural resources. The increasing supply of cheap and fashionable clothing has created a contradiction between consumers’ concerns for sustainability and their purchase behavior in the fashion industry. Since the uncovering of several sweatshop scandals in the 1980’s and 1990’s ethical fashion brands have started to emerge. Ethical fashion has sparked the interest of consumers and studies have shown promising positive attitudes towards it. However, these attitudes have failed to translate into action and purchase behavior of ethical fashion has not reached the expectations. In order to translate the positive attitudes into buying companies must understand consumer’s motivations and reasons behind the purchase decision. The objective of this study is to understand the antecedents behind young consumer’s purchase intention of ethical fashion. The study is based on the theory of planned behavior which has been widely used to study consumer behavior and purchase decisions. The theory has also been used in ethical decision-making and fashion context before. According to the theory, in order to understand purchase intentions consumer’s attitudes toward buying ethical fashion were studied. The theory also states that attitudes are formed from beliefs, thus, consumer’s beliefs about the fashion industry were studied. To contribute to existing research, the effect of sweatshop issues and environmental issues were compared. The data was collected from university students (n=617) with an online survey. The results were analyzed by statistical methods and they revealed that young Finnish consumers hold positive attitudes towards buying ethical fashion as well as positive purchase intentions of ethical fashion. A strong relationship was found between positive attitudes and positive purchase intentions. Also, the more negative consumers’ beliefs of the fashion industry were the more positive their attitudes toward buying ethical fashion were. In contradiction to previous research this study revealed that environmental issues had greater effect on attitudes than sweatshop issues. Interesting differences between consumers were found depending on their field of education. Students from humanities and social sciences held the most negative beliefs as well as most positive attitudes and purchase intentions of ethical fashion.

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This study discusses the interactions of different decision-making mechanisms in the process of change of a successful entrepreneurial dairy firm in Vietnam. The purpose of the study is to construct a theoretical framework, which explains the interactions between effectual and causal decision-making processes in different phases of business, and to provide a real life example with practical recommendations for entrepreneurs and managers. In order to achieve this purpose, a preliminary theoretical framework was built, using process theories applied to different decision making modes, referred to as causation and effectuation. The case was studied through ethnographic research method, with three semi-structured interviews, one unstructured interview, secondary data and observations within four months in 2013-2014. After the data was analyzed, a modified framework was drawn from the result. The finding of this study shows that there was an interaction between effectual and causal decision-making processes in different stages of the company’s development. The entrepreneur applied effectual decision-making process to develop a unique business model and a new dairy market segment. However, when a new market demand arose, the company’s resources became insufficient, they thus had to shift to causation process to adapt to market change. Simultaneously, with better-accumulated resources, the entrepreneur continued the effectuation process to create another brand new dairy market segment. This study, thus, contributes to effectuation theory, emphasizing the necessity of combining effectual and causal decision-making processes in different phases of business. It is suggested that business would develop with an effectual process until a business model is viable for growth. It continues to use this process up to a certain degree. When the market changes, the company needs to collect more means to adapt to the changes. They need to set new goals and this is a shift to the use of causal process, which builds on prediction. It uses goals and teleology as driving mechanisms and tries to exploit and fill potential resource gaps to achieve these goals. At the same time, there are new iterations that look to establish new lines or types of business with the given means, which are now well established. This again employs effectual mechanisms, which are based on evolutionary process, until they reach the stage of viable tested business model. Moreover, this study hopes to provide know-how to entrepreneurs and managers of small companies in similar situations, suggesting how to combine effectual and causal decision-making processes to deal with various circumstances in different times.

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A cognitively based instructional program for narrative writing was developed. The effects of using cognitively based schematic planning organizers at the pre-writing stage were evaluated using subjects from the Primary, Junior and Intermediate divisions. Results indicate that the use of organizers based on problem solving significantly improved the organization and the overall quality of narrative writing for students in grades 3, 6 and 7. The magnitude of the improvement of the treatment group over the control group performance in Organization ranged from 10.7% to 22.9%. Statistical and observational data indicate many implications for further research into the cognitive basis for writing and reading; for the improvement and evaluation of school writing programs; for the design of school curricula; and for the inservice education for teachers of writing.

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The purpose of this research was to explore women elementary teachers' perceptions of how their decision to return to teaching part-time from a maternity leave influences their professional and personal lives. The investigation focused on the decisions surrounding a mother's choice to reenter the teaching profession parttime in a field where each mother had previously been employed full-time. A collective case study was undertaken based on an in-depth interview with five mothers who had made the choice to return to the classroom part-time. The data collected in this study were analyzed and interpreted using qualitative methods. The following four major themes emerged from the interviews: decisionmaking process, challenges faced by mothers who teach part-time, the importance of support, and the enhancement of instructional practice from parenthood. Using these four themes, an analysis was conducted to examine the similarities and differences among the experiences of the participants. The mothers' reflections, my analysis, and the related literature were used at the conclusion of this report to compile implications for teaching practice, theory, and further research.

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This study was an investigation of individual and organizational factors, as perceived by front-line vocational service workers from Adult Rehabilitation Centres (ARC Industries) for mentally retarded adults. The specific variables which were measured included role conflict/role ambiguity (role factors), internal/external locus of control (individual differences), job satisfaction with work and supervision (job attitudes) and participation in deci~ion making (organizational factor). The exploration of these constructs was conducted by means of self-report questionnaires which were completed by sixty-nine out of a total of ninety front-line employees. The surveys were distributed in booklet form to nine distinct rehabilitation facilities from St. Catharines, West Lincoln, Greater Niagara, Port Colborne, WeIland, Fort Erie, Hamilton, Guelph and Brantford. The survey data was evaluated by the statisti.cal Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) which used the Pearson Product Moment Correlation procedure and a compar~son of means test. A comparison of correlation coefficients test was also conducted. This statistical procedure was calculated mathematically. The results obtained from the statistical evaluation confirmed the prediction that self-reported measures of participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision) would be negatively correlated with role conflict and role ambiguity. As well, the speculation that perceived satisfaction (work and supervision) would be positively correlated with participation in decision making was empirically supported. Internal and external locus of control did not contribute to a significant difference in r~sponses to role perceptions (conflict and ambiguity) , satisfaction (work and supervision) or the correlational relationship between participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision). Overall, the findings from this study substantiated the importance of examining employee perceptions in the workplace and the interrelationships among individual and organizational variables. This research was considered a contribution to the general area of occupational stress and to the study of individuals in work organizations.

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ADeweyan (1916) democratic theoty ofeducation called for the participation ofall citizens in deliberating important educational issues to improve overall student learning. Thus, the move to include parents in educational decision making can be considered to be rooted in democratic principles. To gain greater insight into the issue ofparent involvement in educational decision making, one elementary school was studied and a triangulization method was employed in an attempt to clarify the important issues surrolUlding the move to include parents in the governance ofschools. The three methods to gain information included surveys, interviews, and documentation ofsignificant school events and related work. All ofthe parents and teachers ofthe school were surveyed, 10 parents and 6teachers were interviewed, and related school events were recorded. The survey design was modeled on the Parent Involvement Questionnaire (PIQ) created and reported on by Chavkin and Williams (1987). The results ofthe surveys were used as a guide for the interview questions. An interview outline was developed based on Seidman's (1991) open-ended approach and Patton's (1980) standardized open-ended interview style in which parents and teachers were asked about their experiences and opinions on anmnber ofparent involvement issues. Parents and teachers in this school indicated agreater interest in becoming more aware ofeducational issues such as school budget and school discipline policies. Although the parents indicated agreater interest in school matters and the teachers indicated awillingness to include parents in school matters, both the parents and teachers in this study perceived the role ofthe parent as advisory, not decision making. It was concluded that to ensure ameaningful and functional role for parellts as tlleir p811icipatioll ill educational matters evolves, SCllools must have a clear vision ofthe primary goal ofall schools, namely, to foster and nourish democratic citizens for ademocratic society (Glickman, 1993). Furthennore, intentional practices such as Purkey's (ad) 5-P Relay approach, based on a democratic theory and practice of education, will have to be employed in order to give parents an authentic voice in educational matters and provide an avenue for parents to acquire the necessary skills and lmowledge needed to do so. As schools, school boards, and the Ministry ofEducation implement parent involvement guidelines and policies, developmental needs ofeach school need to be considered to ensure the employment ofdemocratic practices not authoritarian mandates. Parent interest and involvement, at whatever level, should be an important element in the overall move to make schools part ofthe democratic society they were meant to be.

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This study developed a new, valid and reliable evaluation instrument to measure the level, type and pattern of management decisions of fifteen nursing students. The management decision score achieved using this instrument was correlated with two psychological determinants of management decision making: creativity and problem-solving ability. The instrument was a written patient management problem in case format, answered by a free form written response. The student responses were classified for type of management decision according to the sub-categories of technical, inter-personal, environmental and unique. Using statistical analysis a significant difference was found in the type of management decisions most frequently selected by the study sample. The students predominantly selected technical type decisions. This preference for one type of management decision may be due to a number of psychological and environmental factors. These factors may program and mold the type of management decisions student nurses make early in their career. Low but positive correlations were found between the total management score and the two psychological tests. This finding supports the authors cited in the literature who state that although creativity augments the type of management decision making, it is not present or encouraged widely in the nursing profession. These factors are worth considering when the profession becomes concerned over ritualization and lack of individuality in patient care. The tool is easy to administer, lends itself to a variety of professional settings and shows promise with further refinement for computer application.

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Four problems of physical interest have been solved in this thesis using the path integral formalism. Using the trigonometric expansion method of Burton and de Borde (1955), we found the kernel for two interacting one dimensional oscillators• The result is the same as one would obtain using a normal coordinate transformation, We next introduced the method of Papadopolous (1969), which is a systematic perturbation type method specifically geared to finding the partition function Z, or equivalently, the Helmholtz free energy F, of a system of interacting oscillators. We applied this method to the next three problems considered• First, by summing the perturbation expansion, we found F for a system of N interacting Einstein oscillators^ The result obtained is the same as the usual result obtained by Shukla and Muller (1972) • Next, we found F to 0(Xi)f where A is the usual Tan Hove ordering parameter* The results obtained are the same as those of Shukla and Oowley (1971), who have used a diagrammatic procedure, and did the necessary sums in Fourier space* We performed the work in temperature space• Finally, slightly modifying the method of Papadopolous, we found the finite temperature expressions for the Debyecaller factor in Bravais lattices, to 0(AZ) and u(/K/ j,where K is the scattering vector* The high temperature limit of the expressions obtained here, are in complete agreement with the classical results of Maradudin and Flinn (1963) .

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This qualitative research was a constructivist grounded theory designed to develop an understanding of how firefighters perceive and cope with stressful situations and the impact this has on their perceptions of health. This study was framed in a social ecological perspective with the community of firefighting providing the environment within which to explore stress and coping. Of particular concern here are the stressors associated with firefighting. Prior research with firefighters has often been epidemiological and statistical in nature, focusing on measures of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and depression (Baker & Williams, 2001 ; Brown et al., 2002; Murphy et al.,1999; Regehr et al., 2002; Regehr et al., 2003). Qualitative research examining the perception of stress among firefighters that includes personal stories allows firefighters the opportunity to describe what it is like to be met with physically and mentally challenging situations on a daily basis. Twelve in-depth, semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with a brief questionnaire were conducted with firefighters from a Southern Ontario Fire Department. Four main themes emerged describing the persona of the firefighter, the stressors of firefighters, coping strategies of firefighters, and firefighters' perceptions of health. Stressors include requirements of the job, traumatic calls, tensions with co-workers, the struggle between the family at home and the family at work, political stressors with the City, and the inner struggle. Avoidance coping, approach coping, and gaining perspective emerged as the three coping styles of firefighters. Health was defined as including physical, mental, social and spiritual aspects. A model of the findings is provided that depicts the cyclical nature of the stress-coping-health relationship among firefighters.

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We provide an algorithm that automatically derives many provable theorems in the equational theory of allegories. This was accomplished by noticing properties of an existing decision algorithm that could be extended to provide a derivation in addition to a decision certificate. We also suggest improvements and corrections to previous research in order to motivate further work on a complete derivation mechanism. The results presented here are significant for those interested in relational theories, since we essentially have a subtheory where automatic proof-generation is possible. This is also relevant to program verification since relations are well-suited to describe the behaviour of computer programs. It is likely that extensions of the theory of allegories are also decidable and possibly suitable for further expansions of the algorithm presented here.

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Studying positive adolescent development requires an examination of the mutually beneficial associations between youth and their environment. These youthcontext relations include both the contributions that youth make to others and society and the youth-context interactions that might predict positive youth outcomes. Community and youth-serving organizations, where youth may be involved in decision-making roles such as service delivery, advocacy, or on boards of directors, can provide one important context for youth contributions and for positive adolescent development. Research on the outcomes of youth involvement in organizational decision-making, however, is limited, and largely consists of exploratory qualitative studies. This dissertation is formatted as an integrated article dissertation. It begins with a review of the literature on contexts of structured youth activities and positive youth development. This review is intended to describe theory on development-context relations, in which development is considered an interactive process that occurs between individuals and their contexts, as it pertains the positive development of youth who are involved in various structured activities (e.g., volunteering). This description follows with a review of current research, and conclusions and rationale for the current studies. Following this theoretical and research background, the dissertation includes reports of two studies that were designed to address gaps in the research on youth involvement in organizational decision-making. The first was a qualitative research synthesis to elucidate and summarize the extant qualitative research on the outcomes of youth involvement in organizational decision making on adults and organizations. Results of this study suggested a number of outcomes for service provision, staff, and broader organizational functioning, including both benefits to organizations as well as some costs. The second study was a quantitative analysis of the associations among youth involvement, organizations' learning culture, and youth initiative, and relied on survey data gathered from adults and youth in community-based organizations with youth involvement. As expected, greater youth involvement in organizational decision making was associated with higher learning culture within the organization. Two dimensions of youth involvement, greater program engagement and relationships with adults, were related to greater youth initiative. A third dimension, sense of ownership, was not- .-.- associated with youth's level of initiative. Moreover, the association between relationships with adults and youth initiative was only significant in organizations with relatively low learning culture. Despite some limitations, these studies contribute to the research literature by providing some indication of the potential benefits and costs of youth involvement and by making an important contribution toward the early stages of context-level analyses of youth development. Findings have important implications for practitioners, funders, future research, and lifespan development theory.

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This survey presents within a single model three theories of decentralization of decision-making within organizations based on private information and incentives. Renegotiation, collusion, and limits on communication are three sufficient conditions for decentralization to be optimal.

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We study the problem of measuring the uncertainty of CGE (or RBC)-type model simulations associated with parameter uncertainty. We describe two approaches for building confidence sets on model endogenous variables. The first one uses a standard Wald-type statistic. The second approach assumes that a confidence set (sampling or Bayesian) is available for the free parameters, from which confidence sets are derived by a projection technique. The latter has two advantages: first, confidence set validity is not affected by model nonlinearities; second, we can easily build simultaneous confidence intervals for an unlimited number of variables. We study conditions under which these confidence sets take the form of intervals and show they can be implemented using standard methods for solving CGE models. We present an application to a CGE model of the Moroccan economy to study the effects of policy-induced increases of transfers from Moroccan expatriates.

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It is well known that standard asymptotic theory is not valid or is extremely unreliable in models with identification problems or weak instruments [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Staiger and Stock (1997, Econometrica), Wang and Zivot (1998, Econometrica), Stock and Wright (2000, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. One possible way out consists here in using a variant of the Anderson-Rubin (1949, Ann. Math. Stat.) procedure. The latter, however, allows one to build exact tests and confidence sets only for the full vector of the coefficients of the endogenous explanatory variables in a structural equation, which in general does not allow for individual coefficients. This problem may in principle be overcome by using projection techniques [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. AR-types are emphasized because they are robust to both weak instruments and instrument exclusion. However, these techniques can be implemented only by using costly numerical techniques. In this paper, we provide a complete analytic solution to the problem of building projection-based confidence sets from Anderson-Rubin-type confidence sets. The latter involves the geometric properties of “quadrics” and can be viewed as an extension of usual confidence intervals and ellipsoids. Only least squares techniques are required for building the confidence intervals. We also study by simulation how “conservative” projection-based confidence sets are. Finally, we illustrate the methods proposed by applying them to three different examples: the relationship between trade and growth in a cross-section of countries, returns to education, and a study of production functions in the U.S. economy.

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We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.