901 resultados para Asymptotic behaviour, Bayesian methods, Mixture models, Overfitting, Posterior concentration


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The circumscription of genera belonging to tribe Bignonieae (Bignoniaceae) has traditionally been complex, with only a few genera having stable circumscriptions in the various classification systems proposed for the tribe. The genus Lundia, for instance, is well characterized by a series of morphological synapomorphies and its circumscription has remained quite stable throughout its history. Despite the stable circumscription of Lundia, the circumscription of species within the genus has remained problematic. This study aims to reconstruct the phylogeny of Lundia in order to refine species circumscriptions, gain a better understanding of relationships between taxa, and identify potential morphological synapomorphies for species and major clades. We sampled 26 accessions representing 13 species of Lundia, and 5 outgroups, and reconstructed the phylogeny of the genus using a chloroplast (ndhF) and a nuclear marker (PepC). Data derived from sequences of the individual loci were analyzed using parsimony and Bayesian inference, and the combined molecular dataset was analyzed with Bayesian methods. The monophyly of Lundia nitidula, a species with a particularly complex circumscription, was tested using Shimodaira-Hasegawa (SH) test and the approximately unbiased test for phylogenetic tree selection (AU test). In addition, 40 morphological characters were mapped onto the tree that resulted from the analysis of the combined molecular dataset in order to identify morphological synapomorphies of individual species and major clades. Lundia and most species currently recognized within the genus were strongly supported as monophyletic in all analyses. One species, Lundia nitidula, was not resolved as monophyletic, but the monophyly of this species was not rejected by the AU and SH tests. Lundia sect. Eriolundia is resolved as paraphyletic in all analyses, while Lundia sect. Eulundia is monophyletic and supported by the same morphological characters traditionally used to circumscribe this section. The phylogeny of Lundia contributed important information for a better circumscription of species and served as basis the taxonomic revision of the genus.

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In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

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The HIV-1 subtype C has spread efficiently in the southern states of Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana). Phylogeographic studies indicate that the subtype C epidemic in southern Brazil was initiated by the introduction of a single founder virus population at some time point between 1960 and 1980, but little is known about the spatial dynamics of viral spread. A total of 135 Brazilian HIV-1 subtype C pol sequences collected from 1992 to 2009 at the three southern state capitals (Porto Alegre, Florianopolis and Curitiba) were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood and Bayesian methods were used to explore the degree of phylogenetic mixing of subtype C sequences from different cities and to reconstruct the geographical pattern of viral spread in this country region. Phylogeographic analyses supported the monophyletic origin of the HIV-1 subtype C clade circulating in southern Brazil and placed the root of that clade in Curitiba (Parana state). This analysis further suggested that Florianopolis (Santa Catarina state) is an important staging post in the subtype C dissemination displaying high viral migration rates from and to the other cities, while viral flux between Curitiba and Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul state) is very low. We found a positive correlation (r(2) = 0.64) between routine travel and viral migration rates among localities. Despite the intense viral movement, phylogenetic intermixing of subtype C sequences from different Brazilian cities is lower than expected by chance. Notably, a high proportion (67%) of subtype C sequences from Porto Alegre branched within a single local monophyletic sub-cluster. These results suggest that the HIV-1 subtype C epidemic in southern Brazil has been shaped by both frequent viral migration among states and in situ dissemination of local clades.

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We prove a new Morse-Sard-type theorem for the asymptotic critical values of semi-algebraic mappings and a new fibration theorem at infinity for C-2 mappings. We show the equivalence of three different types of regularity conditions which have been used in the literature in order to control the asymptotic behaviour of mappings. The central role of our picture is played by the p-regularity and its bridge toward the rho-regularity which implies topological triviality at infinity.

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Background: Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is one of the major etiologic agents of respiratory tract infections among children worldwide. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here through a comprehensive analysis of the two major HRSV groups A and B (n = 1983) which comprise of several genotypes, we present a complex pattern of population dynamics of HRSV over a time period of 50 years (1956-2006). Circulation pattern of HRSV revealed a series of expansions and fluctuations of co-circulating lineages with a predominance of HRSVA. Positively selected amino acid substitutions of the G glycoprotein occurred upon population growth of GB3 with a 60-nucleotide insertion (GB3 Insert), while other genotypes acquired substitutions upon both population growth and decrease, thus possibly reflecting a role for immune selected epitopes in linkage to the traced substitution sites that may have important relevance for vaccine design. Analysis evidenced the co-circulation and predominance of distinct HRSV genotypes in Brazil and suggested a year-round presence of the virus. In Brazil, GA2 and GA5 were the main culprits of HRSV outbreaks until recently, when the GB3 Insert became highly prevalent. Using Bayesian methods, we determined the dispersal patterns of genotypes through several inferred migratory routes. Conclusions/Significance: Genotypes spread across continents and between neighboring areas. Crucially, genotypes also remained at any given region for extended periods, independent of seasonal outbreaks possibly maintained by re-infecting the general population.

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Purpose: Dyslipidemia is characterized by high lipid blood levels that are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases, which are leading causes of death. However, it is unclear whether dyslipidemia is a cause of the dry eye syndrome (DES). Therefore we determined in transgenic mice models of dyslipidemia, whether there is an association with DES development. Methods: Dyslipidemic models included male and female adult mice overexpressing apolipoprotein CIII (Apo CIII), LDL receptor knockout (LDLR-KO) and ApoE knockout (ApoE-KO). They were compared with age-and gender-matched C57BL/6 mice. Ocular health was evaluated based on corneal slit lamp assessment, phenol red thread test (PRT) and impression cytology. Blood lipid profiles and histology of meibomian and lacrimal glands were also evaluated. Effects of high-fat diet and aging were observed in LDLR-KO and ApoCIII strains, respectively. Results: Body weight and lacrimal gland weight were significantly higher in male mice compared to females of the same strain (P < 0.05). Body weight was significantly lower in LDLRKO mice receiving high lipid diet compared to their controls (P = 0.0043). ApoE-KO were hypercholesterolemic and ApoCIII hypertriglyceridemic while LDLR-KO showed increases in both parameters. The PRT test was lower in male LDLR-KO mice with high-fat diet than control mice with standard diet (P = 0.0273). Aging did not affect lacrimal structural or functional parameters of ApoCIII strain. Conclusions: DES development is not solely dependent on dyslipidemia in relevant mice models promoting this condition. On the other hand, lacrimal gland structure and function are differentially impacted by lipid profile changes in male and female mice. This dissociation suggests that other factors beside dyslipidemia impact on tear film dysfunction and DES development.

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Fraud is a global problem that has required more attention due to an accentuated expansion of modern technology and communication. When statistical techniques are used to detect fraud, whether a fraud detection model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the case as a fraudulent or legitimate is a critical factor. In this context, the concept of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the adjusted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, for the first time, we aim to present a pioneer study of the performance of the discrete and continuous k-dependence probabilistic networks within the context of bagging predictors classification. Via a large simulation study and various real datasets, we discovered that the probabilistic networks are a strong modeling option with high predictive capacity and with a high increment using the bagging procedure when compared to traditional techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This thesis deals with two important research aspects concerning radio frequency (RF) microresonators and switches. First, a new approach for compact modeling and simulation of these devices is presented. Then, a combined process flow for their simultaneous fabrication on a SOI substrate is proposed. Compact models for microresonators and switches are extracted by applying mathematical model order reduction (MOR) to the devices finite element (FE) description in ANSYS c° . The behaviour of these devices includes forms of nonlinearities. However, an approximation in the creation of the FE model is introduced, which enables the use of linear model order reduction. Microresonators are modeled with the introduction of transducer elements, which allow for direct coupling of the electrical and mechanical domain. The coupled system element matrices are linearized around an operating point and reduced. The resulting macromodel is valid for small signal analysis around the bias point, such as harmonic pre-stressed analysis. This is extremely useful for characterizing the frequency response of resonators. Compact modelling of switches preserves the nonlinearity of the device behaviour. Nonlinear reduced order models are obtained by reducing the number of nonlinearities in the system and handling them as input to the system. In this way, the system can be reduced using linear MOR techniques and nonlinearities are introduced directly in the reduced order model. The reduction of the number of system nonlinearities implies the approximation of all distributed forces in the model with lumped forces. Both for microresonators and switches, a procedure for matrices extraction has been developed so that reduced order models include the effects of electrical and mechanical pre-stress. The extraction process is fast and can be done automatically from ANSYS binary files. The method has been applied for the simulation of several devices both at devices and circuit level. Simulation results have been compared with full model simulations, and, when available, experimental data. Reduced order models have proven to conserve the accuracy of finite element method and to give a good description of the overall device behaviour, despite the introduced approximations. In addition, simulation is very fast, both at device and circuit level. A combined process-flow for the integrated fabrication of microresonators and switches has been defined. For this purpose, two processes that are optimized for the independent fabrication of these devices are merged. The major advantage of this process is the possibility to create on-chip circuit blocks that include both microresonators and switches. An application is, for example, aswitched filter bank for wireless transceiver. The process for microresonators fabrication is characterized by the use of silicon on insulator (SOI) wafers and on a deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) step for the creation of the vibrating structures in single-crystal silicon and the use of a sacrificial oxide layer for the definition of resonator to electrode distance. The fabrication of switches is characterized by the use of two different conductive layers for the definition of the actuation electrodes and by the use of a photoresist as a sacrificial layer for the creation of the suspended structure. Both processes have a gold electroplating step, for the creation of the resonators electrodes, transmission lines and suspended structures. The combined process flow is designed such that it conserves the basic properties of the original processes. Neither the performance of the resonators nor the performance of the switches results affected by the simultaneous fabrication. Moreover, common fabrication steps are shared, which allows for cheaper and faster fabrication.

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Methoden und Modelle zur Phytoplanktonanalyse am Beispiel einer Restaurierungsmaßnahme an der Bleiloch Talsperre Zusammenfassung An der hypertrophen Bleiloch Talsperre (Thüringen, BRD) werden die Auswirkungen der 1997 in Betrieb genommenen partiellen Destratifikation (0- 20m) untersucht. Ziel der Maßnahme war die Hemmung des Phytoplanktonwachstums durch Lichtlimitation.Da es nicht gelang, auch die Oberflächenlammelle in die Durchmischung einzubeziehen, wurde auch keine Reduktion des Phytoplanktons beobachtet. Seine zeitliche Dynamik nahm deutlich zu und es traten neben typischen Längsgradienten auch extreme, kleinräumige Konzentrationsunterschiede auf. Die vorher häufigen Cyanobakterien spielten jedoch keine quantitativ bedeutsame Rolle mehr. Es wird diskutiert, wie die Belüftung die Saisonalität des Planktons stört und zu Verschiebungen der Zusammensetzung führt. Der Zusammenhang zwischen der Chlorophyll a Menge und der Stabilität der Wassersäule sowie der Einfluß wachstumsbestimmender Größen werden modelliert. Methodische Schwerpunkte umfassen die Auswertung von Phytoplankton-Pigmentdaten (HPLC-Analyse) und die Entwicklung einer Durchflußzytometer-Methode. Bei letzerer werden an lebenden Phytoplanktern die Vorwärtsstreuung sowie vier Fluoreszenzen (2 Phycoerythrine, Phycocyanin und Chlorophyll a, 514nm Anregungswellenlänge) gemessen. Zur Klassifizierung von Algen anhand von Referenzen werden zwei Methoden entwickelt, Möglichkeiten des Sortierens aufgezeigt und es wird ein Vergleich mit Mikroskopie und HPLC- Pigmentanalyse durchgeführt. Anhand von Modellrechnungen wird demonstriert, wie sich systematische bzw. zufällige Abweichungen der Pigmentstöchiometrien auf die Berechnung von Algengruppenanteilen auswirken. Strategien zur Auswertung von Pigmentdaten werden empfohlen.

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Synthetic biology has recently had a great development, many papers have been published and many applications have been presented, spanning from the production of biopharmacheuticals to the synthesis of bioenergetic substrates or industrial catalysts. But, despite these advances, most of the applications are quite simple and don’t fully exploit the potential of this discipline. This limitation in complexity has many causes, like the incomplete characterization of some components, or the intrinsic variability of the biological systems, but one of the most important reasons is the incapability of the cell to sustain the additional metabolic burden introduced by a complex circuit. The objective of the project, of which this work is part, is trying to solve this problem through the engineering of a multicellular behaviour in prokaryotic cells. This system will introduce a cooperative behaviour that will allow to implement complex functionalities, that can’t be obtained with a single cell. In particular the goal is to implement the Leader Election, this procedure has been firstly devised in the field of distributed computing, to identify the process that allow to identify a single process as organizer and coordinator of a series of tasks assigned to the whole population. The election of the Leader greatly simplifies the computation providing a centralized control. Further- more this system may even be useful to evolutionary studies that aims to explain how complex organisms evolved from unicellular systems. The work presented here describes, in particular, the design and the experimental characterization of a component of the circuit that solves the Leader Election problem. This module, composed of an hybrid promoter and a gene, is activated in the non-leader cells after receiving the signal that a leader is present in the colony. The most important element, in this case, is the hybrid promoter, it has been realized in different versions, applying the heuristic rules stated in [22], and their activity has been experimentally tested. The objective of the experimental characterization was to test the response of the genetic circuit to the introduction, in the cellular environment, of particular molecules, inducers, that can be considered inputs of the system. The desired behaviour is similar to the one of a logic AND gate in which the exit, represented by the luminous signal produced by a fluorescent protein, is one only in presence of both inducers. The robustness and the stability of this behaviour have been tested by changing the concentration of the input signals and building dose response curves. From these data it is possible to conclude that the analysed constructs have an AND-like behaviour over a wide range of inducers’ concentrations, even if it is possible to identify many differences in the expression profiles of the different constructs. This variability accounts for the fact that the input and the output signals are continuous, and so their binary representation isn’t able to capture the complexity of the behaviour. The module of the circuit that has been considered in this analysis has a fundamental role in the realization of the intercellular communication system that is necessary for the cooperative behaviour to take place. For this reason, the second phase of the characterization has been focused on the analysis of the signal transmission. In particular, the interaction between this element and the one that is responsible for emitting the chemical signal has been tested. The desired behaviour is still similar to a logic AND, since, even in this case, the exit signal is determined by the hybrid promoter activity. The experimental results have demonstrated that the systems behave correctly, even if there is still a substantial variability between them. The dose response curves highlighted that stricter constrains on the inducers concentrations need to be imposed in order to obtain a clear separation between the two levels of expression. In the conclusive chapter the DNA sequences of the hybrid promoters are analysed, trying to identify the regulatory elements that are most important for the determination of the gene expression. Given the available data it wasn’t possible to draw definitive conclusions. In the end, few considerations on promoter engineering and complex circuits realization are presented. This section aims to briefly recall some of the problems outlined in the introduction and provide a few possible solutions.

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In patients with HIV-1 infection who are starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART), the incidence of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) is not well defined. We did a meta-analysis to establish the incidence and lethality of the syndrome in patients with a range of previously diagnosed opportunistic infections, and examined the relation between occurrence and the degree of immunodeficiency. Systematic review identified 54 cohort studies of 13 103 patients starting ART, of whom 1699 developed IRIS. We calculated pooled cumulative incidences with 95% credibility intervals (CrI) by Bayesian methods and did a random-effects metaregression to analyse the relation between CD4 cell count and incidence of IRIS. In patients with previously diagnosed AIDS-defining illnesses, IRIS developed in 37.7% (95% CrI 26.6-49.4) of those with cytomegalovirus retinitis, 19.5% (6.7-44.8) of those with cryptococcal meningitis, 15.7% (9.7-24.5) of those with tuberculosis, 16.7% (2.3-50.7) of those with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, and 6.4% (1.2-24.7) of those with Kaposi's sarcoma, and 12.2% (6.8-19.6) of those with herpes zoster. 16.1% (11.1-22.9) of unselected patients starting ART developed any type of IRIS. 4.5% (2.1-8.6) of patients with any type of IRIS died, 3.2% (0.7-9.2) of those with tuberculosis-associated IRIS died, and 20.8% (5.0-52.7) of those with cryptococcal meningitis died. Metaregression analyses showed that the risk of IRIS is associated with CD4 cell count at the start of ART, with a high risk in patients with fewer than 50 cells per microL. Occurrence of IRIS might therefore be reduced by initiation of ART before immunodeficiency becomes advanced.

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Whitefish, genus Coregonus, show exceptional levels of phenotypic diversity with sympatric morphs occurring in numerous postglacial lakes in the northern hemisphere. Here, we studied the effects of human-induced eutrophication on sympatric whitefish morphs in the Swiss lake, Lake Thun. In particular, we addressed the questions whether eutrophication (i) induced hybridization between two ecologically divergent summer-spawning morphs through a loss of environmental heterogeneity, and (ii) induced rapid adaptive morphological changes through changes in the food web structure. Genetic analysis based on 11 microsatellite loci of 282 spawners revealed that the pelagic and the benthic morph represent highly distinct gene pools occurring at different relative proportions on all seven known spawning sites. Gill raker counts, a highly heritable trait, showed nearly discrete distributions for the two morphs. Multilocus genotypes characteristic of the pelagic morph had more gill rakers than genotypes characteristic of benthic morph. Using Bayesian methods, we found indications of recent but limited introgressive hybridization. Comparisons with historical gill raker data yielded median evolutionary rates of 0.24 haldanes and median selection intensities of 0.27 for this trait in both morphs for 1948-2004 suggesting rapid evolution through directional selection at this trait. However, phenotypic plasticity as an alternative explanation for this phenotypic change cannot be discarded. We hypothesize that both the temporal shifts in mean gill raker counts and the recent hybridization reflect responses to changes in the trophic state of the lake induced by pollution in the 1960s, which created novel selection pressures with respect to feeding niches and spawning site preferences.

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Boston Harbor has had a history of poor water quality, including contamination by enteric pathogens. We conduct a statistical analysis of data collected by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (MWRA) between 1996 and 2002 to evaluate the effects of court-mandated improvements in sewage treatment. Motivated by the ineffectiveness of standard Poisson mixture models and their zero-inflated counterparts, we propose a new negative binomial model for time series of Enterococcus counts in Boston Harbor, where nonstationarity and autocorrelation are modeled using a nonparametric smooth function of time in the predictor. Without further restrictions, this function is not identifiable in the presence of time-dependent covariates; consequently we use a basis orthogonal to the space spanned by the covariates and use penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL) for estimation. We conclude that Enterococcus counts were greatly reduced near the Nut Island Treatment Plant (NITP) outfalls following the transfer of wastewaters from NITP to the Deer Island Treatment Plant (DITP) and that the transfer of wastewaters from Boston Harbor to the offshore diffusers in Massachusetts Bay reduced the Enterococcus counts near the DITP outfalls.

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OBJECTIVES This article reviews the present literature on the issues encountered while coping with children with autistic spectrum disorder from the dental perspective. The autistic patient profile and external factors affecting the oral health status of this patient population are discussed upon the existing body of evidence. MATERIAL AND METHODS The MEDLINE database was searched using the terms 'Autistic Disorder', 'Behaviour Control/methods', 'Child', 'Dental care for disabled', 'Education', 'Oral Health', and 'Pediatric Dentistry' to locate related articles published up to January 2013. RESULTS Most of the relevant studies indicate poor oral hygiene whereas they are inconclusive regarding the caries incidence in autistic individuals. Undergraduate dental education appears to determine the competence of dental professionals to treat developmentally disabled children and account partly for compromised access to dental care. Dental management of an autistic child requires in-depth understanding of the background of the autism and available behavioural guidance theories. The dental professional should be flexible to modify the treatment approach according to the individual patient needs.