Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

New microfluidic-based sampling procedure for overcoming the hematocrit problem associated with dried blood spot analysis.

Hematocrit (Hct) is one of the most critical issues associated with the bioanalytical methods used for dried blood spot (DBS) sample analysis. Because Hct determines the viscosity of blood, it may affect the spreading of blood onto the filter paper. Hence, accurate quantitative data can only be obtained if the size of the paper filter extracted contains a fixed blood volume. We describe for the first time a microfluidic-based sampling procedure to enable accurate blood volume collection on commercially available DBS cards. The system allows the collection of a controlled volume of blood (e.g., 5 or 10 μL) within several seconds. Reproducibility of the sampling volume was examined in vivo on capillary blood by quantifying caffeine and paraxanthine on 5 different extracted DBS spots at two different time points and in vitro with a test compound, Mavoglurant, on 10 different spots at two Hct levels. Entire spots were extracted. In addition, the accuracy and precision (n = 3) data for the Mavoglurant quantitation in blood with Hct levels between 26% and 62% were evaluated. The interspot precision data were below 9.0%, which was equivalent to that of a manually spotted volume with a pipet. No Hct effect was observed in the quantitative results obtained for Hct levels from 26% to 62%. These data indicate that our microfluidic-based sampling procedure is accurate and precise and that the analysis of Mavoglurant is not affected by the Hct values. This provides a simple procedure for DBS sampling with a fixed volume of capillary blood, which could eliminate the recurrent Hct issue linked to DBS sample analysis.

Reducing the Problem of Transverse Cracking, HR-232, 1985

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is continually improving the pavement management program and striving to reduce maintenance needs. Through a 1979 pavement management study, the Iowa DOT became a participant in a five state Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) study of "Transverse Cracking of Asphalt Pavements". There were numerous conclusions and recommendations but no agreement as to the major factors contributing to transverse cracking or methods of preventing or reducing the occurrence of transverse cracking. The project did focus attention on the problem and generated ideas for research. This project is one of two state funded research projects that were a direct result of the FHWA project. Iowa DOT personnel had been monitoring temperature susceptibility of asphalt cements by the Norman McLeod Modified Penetration Index. Even though there are many variables from one asphalt mix to another, the trend seemed to indicate that the frequency of transverse cracking was highly dependent on the temperature susceptibility. Research project HR-217 "Reducing the Adverse Effects of Transverse Cracking" was initiated to verify the concept. A final report has been published after a four-year evaluation. The crack frequency with the high temperature susceptible asphalt cement was substantially greater than for the low temperature susceptible asphalt cement. An increased asphalt cement content in the asphalt treated base also reduced the crack frequency. This research on prevention of transverse cracking with fabric supports the following conclusions: 1. Engineering fabric does not prevent transverse cracking of asphalt cement concrete. 2. Engineering fabric may retard the occurrence of transverse cracking. 3. Engineering fabric does not contribute significantly to the structural capability of an asphalt concrete pavement.

Random assignment of intervention points in two phase single-case designs: data-division-specific distributions

The present study explores the statistical properties of a randomization test based on the random assignment of the intervention point in a two-phase (AB) single-case design. The focus is on randomization distributions constructed with the values of the test statistic for all possible random assignments and used to obtain p-values. The shape of those distributions is investigated for each specific data division defined by the moment in which the intervention is introduced. Another aim of the study consisted in testing the detection of inexistent effects (i.e., production of false alarms) in autocorrelated data series, in which the assumption of exchangeability between observations may be untenable. In this way, it was possible to compare nominal and empirical Type I error rates in order to obtain evidence on the statistical validity of the randomization test for each individual data division. The results suggest that when either of the two phases has considerably less measurement times, Type I errors may be too probable and, hence, the decision making process to be carried out by applied researchers may be jeopardized.

What's so special about conversion disorder? A problem and a proposal for diagnostic classification.

Conversion disorder presents a problem for the revisions of DSM-IV and ICD-10, for reasons that are informative about the difficulties of psychiatric classification more generally. Giving up criteria based on psychological aetiology may be a painful sacrifice but it is still the right thing to do.

Group motivational intervention in overweight/obese patients in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in the primary healthcare area

Background The global mortality caused by cardiovascular disease increases with weight. The Framingham study showed that obesity is a cardiovascular risk factor independent of other risks such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia and smoking. Moreover, the main problem in the management of weight-loss is its maintenance, if it is achieved. We have designed a study to determine whether a group motivational intervention, together with current clinical practice, is more efficient than the latter alone in the treatment of overweight and obesity, for initial weight loss and essentially to achieve maintenance of the weight achieved; and, secondly, to know if this intervention is more effective for reducing cardiovascular risk factors associated with overweight and obesity. Methods This 26-month follow up multi-centre trial, will include 1200 overweight/obese patients. Random assignment of the intervention by Basic Health Areas (BHA): two geographically separate groups have been created, one of which receives group motivational intervention (group intervention), delivered by a nurse trained by an expert phsychologist, in 32 group sessions, 1 to 12 fortnightly, and 13 to 32, monthly, on top of their standard program of diet, exercise, and the other (control group), receiving the usual follow up, with regular visits every 3 months. Discussion By addressing currently unanswered questions regarding the maintenance in weight loss in obesity/overweight, upon the expected completion of participant follow-up in 2012, the IMOAP trial should document, for the first time, the benefits of a motivational intervention as a treatment tool of weight loss in a primary care setting.