Assessing multiple sclerosis activity: is the in vitro production of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukins 2, 6, 4, and 10, and immunoglobulin G of value?

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha, interleukins (IL) 2, 4, 6, and 10, and IgG oligoclonal bands (IgG OB) in vitro production was assessed, after whole-blood stimulation with lipopolysaccharide or concanavalin A, in 61 patients presenting with relapsing-remitting, relapsing-progressive, or chronic progressive multiple sclerosis. Multiple sclerosis patients were receiving no treatment or azathioprine (AZA), cyclosporin, cyclophosphamide, subcutaneous interferon (IFN) beta 1 a, or corticosteroids (CST). Statistical correlations significantly showed that: (a) AZA lowers TNF-alpha (P = 0.002) and increases IL-4 production (P = 0.0024), and IFN-beta 1 a increases TNF-alpha and decreases IL-4 levels; (b) CST has a negative effect on TNF-alpha, IL-6, and IL-4 synthesis; and (c) AZA, IFN-beta 1 a, and CST diminish IgG OB synthesis (P = 0.001). Although our study of the dynamics of TNF-alpha, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 in vitro production generally found no statistically significant correlations (partly explained by the limited number of values in the various groups), IL-6 was shown to drop during the periods surrounding relapse (P = 0.05) in the absence of treatment, while TNF-alpha (P = 0.04) and IL-6 (P < 0.05) dropped before exacerbation in the presence of AZA. In vitro production of TNF-alpha was closely and positively correlated with that of IL-6, independently of clinical features. The enhanced production of IL-10 detected before or at relapse with AZA and IFN-beta 1 a (trends) may interfere with initiation of the immune reaction and with the development of new CNS lesions. Some discrepancies with previously published results stress the difficulties in studying the state of stimulation of different populations of leukocytes by using a variety of in vitro stimuli and in establishing a correlation between mRNA studies and the amount of final or active protein produced.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Audit of the Irish health system for value for money

In April 2000, Deloitte & Touche in conjunction with the York Health Economics Consortium were chosen by The Department of Health & Children to carry out an examination of the health services over the past ten years Download the Report here

Value for Money Report - The Efficiency and Effectiveness of Long-Stay Residential Care for Adults within the Mental Health Services

Value for Money Report – The Efficiency and Effectiveness of Long-Stay Residential Care for Adults within the Mental Health Services Executive Summary and Contents PDF 164kb Chapters 1 and 2 – Introduction and Service Objectives PDF 504kb Chapter 3 plus annexes – Service Effectiveness and Efficiency PDF 3.7mb Chapter 4 – Service Resources PDF 2.4mb Chapters 5, 6 and 7 – Future Funding and Alternative Approaches, Key Performance Indicators, Conclusions and Recommendations PDF 2.4mb Appendices 1 to 6

Value for Money and Policy Review of Disability Services in Ireland

This Review is an evaluation of the efficiency and effectiveness of the HSE-funded statutory and non-statutory disability services in Ireland. It was conducted by the Department of Health and the HSE under the auspices of the Governmentâ?Ts programme of Value for Money Reviews for 2009-2011. It makes a range of recommendations about how these services should be structured. www.dohc.ie/press/releases/2012/20120720.html Click here to download PDF 3.7mb Value for Money and Policy Review of the Disability Services Programme – Recommendation PDF 205kb Value for Money and Policy Review of the Disability Services Programme – Questions & Answers PDF 44kb Value for Money and Policy Review of the Disability Services Programme – Questions & Answers PDF 151kb  

Value for Money and Policy Review of Disability Services in Ireland - National Implementation Framework

The National Implementation Framework describes how the recommendations from the Value for Money (VFM) and Policy Review of the Disability Services Programme will be translated into concrete actions. It assigns responsibilities for those actions, and specifies timelines for their completion. It also identifies priorities and key performance indicators. The Framework describes how these reforms can be achieved in a planned, timely and cost effective manner. Click here to download (PDF 876KB)

Candida dubliniensis identification in Brazilian yeast stock collection

We investigated the presence of Candida dubliniensis among isolates previously identified as Candida albicans and maintained in a yeast stock collection from 1994 to 2000. All isolates were serotyped and further evaluated for antifungal susceptibility profile. After doing a screening test for C. dubliniensis isolates based on the capability of colonies to grow at 42°C, its final identification was obtained by randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis using three different primers. A total of 46 out of 548 screened isolates did not exhibit growth at 42°C and were further genotyped by RAPD. Eleven isolates were identified as C. dubliniensis with RAPD analysis. Regarding serotypes, 81.5% of C. albicans and all C. dubliniensis isolates belonged to serotype A. Of note, 9 out of 11 C. dubliniensis isolates were obtained from patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (Aids) and all of them were susceptible to azoles and amphotericin B. We found 17 (3%) C. albicans isolates that were dose-dependent susceptibility or resistant to azoles. In conclusion, we found a low rate of C. dubliniensis isolates among stock cultures of yeasts previously identified as C. albicans. Most of these isolates were recovered from oral samples of Aids patients and exhibited high susceptibility to amphotericin B and azoles. C. albicans serotype A susceptible to all antifungal drugs is the major phenotype found in our stock culture.

Value for Money and Policy Review of the Economic Cost and Charges Associated with Private and Semi-Private Treatment Services in Public Hospitals - Final Report

This Value for Money and Policy Review (VFM&PR) of the Economic Cost and Charges Associated with Private and Semi-Private Treatment Services in Public Hospitals was initiated by the Department of Health and Children in June 2009 and was conducted under the auspices of the Governmentâ?Ts Value for Money & Policy Review Initiative 2009-2011. The Review was overseen by an independently chaired National Steering Group comprised of senior representatives from the Department of Health and Children, the Department of Finance, and the Health Service Executive (HSE). Download document here Download Explanatory Note  

Value for Money and Policy Review of the Economic Cost and Charges Associated with Private and Semi-Private Treatment Services in Public Hospitals - Interim Report

This report sets out a revised costing methodology and an estimate of the gap which currently exists between private and semi-private bed charges and the average economic cost. While the Steering Group considers the costing methodology proposed as an improvement on the approach taken in previous years and a good overall approximation of the difference on average between economic costs and current charges, it recognises that the current charging regime does not take sufficient account of the variation between different categories of patient. Download document here Note to Readers

Value for Money & Policy Review: Allocation & Utilisation of Funding in Acute Services in the Southern Hospitals Group in 2006 - Final ReportRelated Documents

This report is a Value for Money (VFM) evaluation, conducted by the National Hospitals Office (NHO) of the Health Service Executive (HSE) on the allocation and utilisation of funding for expenditure in the Southern Hospitals Group (SHG) in 2006. The SHG consists of nine hospitals in the HSE South region. The 2006 expenditure for the SHG covered by the evaluation was 590.1 million. Performance trends were studied over the period 2004 to 2006. Download document here Value for Money & Policy Review of Allocation & Utilisation of Funding in Acute Services in the Southern Hospitals Group (in 2006) – Department of Health and Children Response & Implementation Plan

Missing value imputation in longitudinal measures of alcohol consumption

Attrition in longitudinal studies can lead to biased results. The study is motivated by the unexpected observation that alcohol consumption decreased despite increased availability, which may be due to sample attrition of heavy drinkers. Several imputation methods have been proposed, but rarely compared in longitudinal studies of alcohol consumption. The imputation of consumption level measurements is computationally particularly challenging due to alcohol consumption being a semi-continuous variable (dichotomous drinking status and continuous volume among drinkers), and the non-normality of data in the continuous part. Data come from a longitudinal study in Denmark with four waves (2003-2006) and 1771 individuals at baseline. Five techniques for missing data are compared: Last value carried forward (LVCF) was used as a single, and Hotdeck, Heckman modelling, multivariate imputation by chained equations (MICE), and a Bayesian approach as multiple imputation methods. Predictive mean matching was used to account for non-normality, where instead of imputing regression estimates, "real" observed values from similar cases are imputed. Methods were also compared by means of a simulated dataset. The simulation showed that the Bayesian approach yielded the most unbiased estimates for imputation. The finding of no increase in consumption levels despite a higher availability remained unaltered. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Experimental kinetics of infection induced by Yersinia pseudotuberculosis isolated from stock animals

The course of in vivo infection of five isolates of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis was followed for three weeks in Swiss mice. The strains were isolated from diarrheic and normal feces and mesenteric lymph nodes of healthy and sick stock animals. Four strains of serogroup O:3 and one of serogroup O:1a, with and without the virulence plasmid, were inoculated intragastrically and intravenously in the mice. Groups of five animals were sacrificed at 6 h and 3, 6, 10, 15, and 21 days after inoculation, and organs and tissues were checked for possible macroscopic alterations. Development of infection was monitored at these times by performing viable bacterial counts in homogenates of selected tissues. The animals were cheked daily for clinical alterations. The results of the study showed that strains with the virulence plasmid infected organs and tissues at various times and at varying intensity by both routes of infection, the strain of type O:1a being the most invasive. Moreover, clinical and pathological alterations occurred only in animals inoculated with bacteria carrying the virulence plasmid, regardless of the route of infection.

Assessing the Relationship between the Baseline Value of a Continuous Variable and Subsequent Change over Time

Analyzing the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change of a continuous variable is a frequent matter of inquiry in cohort studies. These analyses are surprisingly complex, particularly if only two waves of data are available. It is unclear for non-biostatisticians where the complexity of this analysis lies and which statistical method is adequate.With the help of simulated longitudinal data of body mass index in children,we review statistical methods for the analysis of the association between the baseline value and subsequent change, assuming linear growth with time. Key issues in such analyses are mathematical coupling, measurement error, variability of change between individuals, and regression to the mean. Ideally, it is better to rely on multiple repeated measurements at different times and a linear random effects model is a standard approach if more than two waves of data are available. If only two waves of data are available, our simulations show that Blomqvist's method - which consists in adjusting for measurement error variance the estimated regression coefficient of observed change on baseline value - provides accurate estimates. The adequacy of the methods to assess the relationship between the baseline value and subsequent change depends on the number of data waves, the availability of information on measurement error, and the variability of change between individuals.