Draft prediction models for soil engaging tines in two soils of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

The draft forces of soil engaging tines and theoretical analysis compared to existing mathematical models, have yet not been studied in Rio Grande do Sul soils. From the existing models, those which can get the closest fitting draft forces to real measure on field have been established for two of Rio Grande do Sul soils. An Albaqualf and a Paleudult were evaluated. From the studied models, those suggested by Reece, so called "Universal Earthmoving Equation", Hettiaratchi and Reece, and Godwin and Spoor were the best fitting ones, comparing the calculated results with those measured "in situ". Allowing for the less complexity of Reece's model, it is suggested that this model should be used for modeling draft forces prediction for narrow tines in Albaqualf and Paleudut.

Prediction of free-stall occupancy rate in dairycattle barns through fuzzy sets

The goal of this study was to develop a fuzzy model to predict the occupancy rate of free-stalls facilities of dairy cattle, aiding to optimize the design of projects. The following input variables were defined for the development of the fuzzy system: dry bulb temperature (Tdb, °C), wet bulb temperature (Twb, °C) and black globe temperature (Tbg, °C). Based on the input variables, the fuzzy system predicts the occupancy rate (OR, %) of dairy cattle in free-stall barns. For the model validation, data collecting were conducted on the facilities of the Intensive System of Milk Production (SIPL), in the Dairy Cattle National Research Center (CNPGL) of Embrapa. The OR values, estimated by the fuzzy system, presented values of average standard deviation of 3.93%, indicating low rate of errors in the simulation. Simulated and measured results were statistically equal (P>0.05, t Test). After validating the proposed model, the average percentage of correct answers for the simulated data was 89.7%. Therefore, the fuzzy system developed for the occupancy rate prediction of free-stalls facilities for dairy cattle allowed a realistic prediction of stalls occupancy rate, allowing the planning and design of free-stall barns.

Bankruptcy prediction using fuzzy methods

In this thesis, a classi cation problem in predicting credit worthiness of a customer is tackled. This is done by proposing a reliable classi cation procedure on a given data set. The aim of this thesis is to design a model that gives the best classi cation accuracy to e ectively predict bankruptcy. FRPCA techniques proposed by Yang and Wang have been preferred since they are tolerant to certain type of noise in the data. These include FRPCA1, FRPCA2 and FRPCA3 from which the best method is chosen. Two di erent approaches are used at the classi cation stage: Similarity classi er and FKNN classi er. Algorithms are tested with Australian credit card screening data set. Results obtained indicate a mean classi cation accuracy of 83.22% using FRPCA1 with similarity classi- er. The FKNN approach yields a mean classi cation accuracy of 85.93% when used with FRPCA2, making it a better method for the suitable choices of the number of nearest neighbors and fuzziness parameters. Details on the calibration of the fuzziness parameter and other parameters associated with the similarity classi er are discussed.

Analysis and validation of space averaged drag model for numerical simulations of gas-solid flows in fluidized beds

This thesis presents an approach for formulating and validating a space averaged drag model for coarse mesh simulations of gas-solid flows in fluidized beds using the two-fluid model. Proper modeling for fluid dynamics is central in understanding any industrial multiphase flow. The gas-solid flows in fluidized beds are heterogeneous and usually simulated with the Eulerian description of phases. Such a description requires the usage of fine meshes and small time steps for the proper prediction of its hydrodynamics. Such constraint on the mesh and time step size results in a large number of control volumes and long computational times which are unaffordable for simulations of large scale fluidized beds. If proper closure models are not included, coarse mesh simulations for fluidized beds do not give reasonable results. The coarse mesh simulation fails to resolve the mesoscale structures and results in uniform solids concentration profiles. For a circulating fluidized bed riser, such predicted profiles result in a higher drag force between the gas and solid phase and also overestimated solids mass flux at the outlet. Thus, there is a need to formulate the closure correlations which can accurately predict the hydrodynamics using coarse meshes. This thesis uses the space averaging modeling approach in the formulation of closure models for coarse mesh simulations of the gas-solid flow in fluidized beds using Geldart group B particles. In the analysis of formulating the closure correlation for space averaged drag model, the main parameters for the modeling were found to be the averaging size, solid volume fraction, and distance from the wall. The closure model for the gas-solid drag force was formulated and validated for coarse mesh simulations of the riser, which showed the verification of this modeling approach. Coarse mesh simulations using the corrected drag model resulted in lowered values of solids mass flux. Such an approach is a promising tool in the formulation of appropriate closure models which can be used in coarse mesh simulations of large scale fluidized beds.

Prediction of 3D structure and ligand-binding properties : ABC transporters and flavodiiron proteins from Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803

Cyanobacteria are unicellular, non-nitrogen-fixing prokaryotes, which perform photosynthesis similarly as higher plants. The cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803 is used as a model organism in photosynthesis research. My research described herein aims at understanding the function of the photosynthetic machinery and how it responds to changes in the environment. Detailed knowledge of the regulation of photosynthesis in cyanobacteria can be utilized for biotechnological purposes, for example in the harnessing of solar energy for biofuel production. In photosynthesis, iron participates in electron transfer. Here, we focused on iron transport in Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803 and particularly on the environmental regulation of the genes encoding the FutA2BC ferric iron transporter, which belongs to the ABC transporter family. A homology model built for the ATP-binding subunit FutC indicates that it has a functional ATPbinding site as well as conserved interactions with the channel-forming subunit FutB in the transporter complex. Polyamines are important for the cell proliferation, differentiation and apoptosis in prokaryotic and eukaryotic cells. In plants, polyamines have special roles in stress response and in plant survival. The polyamine metabolism in cyanobacteria in response to environmental stress is of interest in research on stress tolerance of higher plants. In this thesis, the potd gene encoding an polyamine transporter subunit from Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803 was characterized for the first time. A homology model built for PotD protein indicated that it has capability of binding polyamines, with the preference for spermidine. Furthermore, in order to investigate the structural features of the substrate specificity, polyamines were docked into the binding site. Spermidine was positioned very similarly in Synechocystis PotD as in the template structure and had most favorable interactions of the docked polyamines. Based on the homology model, experimental work was conducted, which confirmed the binding preference. Flavodiiron proteins (Flv) are enzymes, which protect the cell against toxicity of oxygen and/or nitric oxide by reduction. In this thesis, we present a novel type of photoprotection mechanism in cyanobacteria by the heterodimer of Flv2/Flv4. The constructed homology model of Flv2/Flv4 suggests a functional heterodimer capable of rapid electron transfer. The unknown protein sll0218, encoded by the flv2-flv4 operon, is assumed to facilitate the interaction of the Flv2/Flv4 heterodimer and energy transfer between the phycobilisome and PSII. Flv2/Flv4 provides an alternative electron transfer pathway and functions as an electron sink in PSII electron transfer.

A temperature predicting model for manufacturing processes requiring coiling

A model for predicting temperature evolution for automatic controling systems in manufacturing processes requiring the coiling of bars in the transfer table is presented. Although the method is of a general nature, the presentation in this work refers to the manufacturing of steel plates in hot rolling mills. The predicting strategy is based on a mathematical model of the evolution of temperature in a coiling and uncoiling bar and is presented in the form of a parabolic partial differential equation for a shape changing domain. The mathematical model is solved numerically by a space discretization via geometrically adaptive finite elements which accomodate the change in shape of the domain, using a computationally novel treatment of the resulting thermal contact problem due to coiling. Time is discretized according to a Crank-Nicolson scheme. Since the actual physical process takes less time than the time required by the process controlling computer to solve the full mathematical model, a special predictive device was developed, in the form of a set of least squares polynomials, based on the off-line numerical solution of the mathematical model.

Prediction of transients and control reactions in a transonic wind tunnel

This work describes a lumped parameter mathematical model for the prediction of transients in an aerodynamic circuit of a transonic wind tunnel. Control actions to properly handle those perturbations are also assessed. The tunnel circuit technology is up to date and incorporates a novel feature: high-enthalpy air injection to extend the tunnel’s Reynolds number capability. The model solves the equations of continuity, energy and momentum and defines density, internal energy and mass flow as the basic parameters in the aerodynamic study as well as Mach number, stagnation pressure and stagnation temperature, all referred to test section conditions, as the main control variables. The tunnel circuit response to control actions and the stability of the flow are numerically investigated. Initially, for validation purposes, the code was applied to the AWT ("Altitude Wind Tunnel" of NASA-Lewis). In the sequel, the Brazilian transonic wind tunnel was investigated, with all the main control systems modeled, including injection.

A New Model to Determine the Dispersion of Fatigue Damage Evaluations

Reliable predictions of remaining lives of civil or mechanical structures subjected to fatigue damage are very difficult to be made. In general, fatigue damage is extremely sensitive to the random variations of material mechanical properties, environment and loading. These variations may induce large dispersions when the structural fatigue life has to be predicted. Wirsching (1970) mentions dispersions of the order of 30 to 70 % of the mean calculated life. The presented paper introduces a model to estimate the fatigue damage dispersion based on known statistical distributions of the fatigue parameters (material properties and loading). The model is developed by expanding into Taylor series the set of equations that describe fatigue damage for crack initiation.

Warranty Prediction Using Weibull Simulation

The main objective of this master’s thesis is to examine if Weibull analysis is suitable method for warranty forecasting in the Case Company. The Case Company has used Reliasoft’s Weibull++ software, which is basing on the Weibull method, but the Company has noticed that the analysis has not given right results. This study was conducted making Weibull simulations in different profit centers of the Case Company and then comparing actual cost and forecasted cost. Simula-tions were made using different time frames and two methods for determining future deliveries. The first sub objective is to examine, which parameters of simulations will give the best result to each profit center. The second sub objective of this study is to create a simple control model for following forecasted costs and actual realized costs. The third sub objective is to document all Qlikview-parameters of profit centers. This study is a constructive research, and solutions for company’s problems are figured out in this master’s thesis. In the theory parts were introduced quality issues, for example; what is quality, quality costing and cost of poor quality. Quality is one of the major aspects in the Case Company, so understand-ing the link between quality and warranty forecasting is important. Warranty management was also introduced and other different tools for warranty forecasting. The Weibull method and its mathematical properties and reliability engineering were introduced. The main results of this master’s thesis are that the Weibull analysis forecasted too high costs, when calculating provision. Although, some forecasted values of profit centers were lower than actual values, the method works better for planning purposes. One of the reasons is that quality improving or alternatively quality decreasing is not showing in the results of the analysis in the short run. The other reason for too high values is that the products of the Case Company are com-plex and analyses were made in the profit center-level. The Weibull method was developed for standard products, but products of the Case Company consists of many complex components. According to the theory, this method was developed for homogeneous-data. So the most im-portant notification is that the analysis should be made in the product level, not the profit center level, when the data is more homogeneous.

Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation

In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.

A social-cognitive model of monitoring and its relationship to behaviour in a naturalistic observation : development and individual differences

years 8 months) and 24 older (M == 7 years 4 months) children. A Monitoring Process Model (MPM) was developed and tested in order to ascertain at which component process ofthe MPM age differences would emerge. The MPM had four components: (1) assessment; (2) evaluation; (3) planning; and (4) behavioural control. The MPM was assessed directly using a referential communication task in which the children were asked to make a series of five Lego buildings (a baseline condition and one building for each MPM component). Children listened to instructions from one experimenter while a second experimenter in the room (a confederate) intetjected varying levels ofverbal feedback in order to assist the children and control the component ofthe MPM. This design allowed us to determine at which "stage" ofprocessing children would most likely have difficulty monitoring themselves in this social-cognitive task. Developmental differences were obselVed for the evaluation, planning and behavioural control components suggesting that older children were able to be more successful with the more explicit metacomponents. Interestingly, however, there was no age difference in terms ofLego task success in the baseline condition suggesting that without the intelVention ofthe confederate younger children monitored the task about as well as older children. This pattern ofresults indicates that the younger children were disrupted by the feedback rather than helped. On the other hand, the older children were able to incorporate the feedback offered by the confederate into a plan ofaction. Another aim ofthis study was to assess similar processing components to those investigated by the MPM Lego task in a more naturalistic observation. Together the use ofthe Lego Task ( a social cognitive task) and the naturalistic social interaction allowed for the appraisal of cross-domain continuities and discontinuities in monitoring behaviours. In this vein, analyses were undertaken in order to ascertain whether or not successful performance in the MPM Lego Task would predict cross-domain competence in the more naturalistic social interchange. Indeed, success in the two latter components ofthe MPM (planning and behavioural control) was related to overall competence in the naturalistic task. However, this cross-domain prediction was not evident for all levels ofthe naturalistic interchange suggesting that the nature ofthe feedback a child receives is an important determinant ofresponse competency. Individual difference measures reflecting the children's general cognitive capacity (Working Memory and Digit Span) and verbal ability (vocabulary) were also taken in an effort to account for more variance in the prediction oftask success. However, these individual difference measures did not serve to enhance the prediction oftask performance in either the Lego Task or the naturalistic task. Similarly, parental responses to questionnaires pertaining to their child's temperament and social experience also failed to increase prediction oftask performance. On-line measures ofthe children's engagement, positive affect and anxiety also failed to predict competence ratings.

THE PREVALENCE AND PREDICTION OF PULMONARY FIBROSIS IN AN

This thesis describes an ancillary project to the Early Diagnosis of Mesothelioma and Lung Cancer in Prior Asbestos Workers study and was conducted to determine the effects of asbestos exposure, pulmonary function and cigarette smoking in the prediction of pulmonary fibrosis. 613 workers who were occupationally exposed to asbestos for an average of 25.9 (SD=14.69) years were sampled from Sarnia, Ontario. A structured questionnaire was administered during a face-to-face interview along with a low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) of the thorax. Of them, 65 workers (10.7%, 95%CI 8.12—12.24) had LDCT-detected pulmonary fibrosis. The model predicting fibrosis included the variables age, smoking (dichotomized), post FVC % splines and post- FEV1% splines. This model had a receiver operator characteristic area under the curve of 0.738. The calibration of the model was evaluated with R statistical program and the bootstrap optimism-corrected calibration slope was 0.692. Thus, our model demonstrated moderate predictive performance.

Top-down and Bottom-up influences on ACC activation: Evaluation of a proposed model of the feedback-related negativity

The Feedback-Related Negativity (FRN) is thought to reflect the dopaminergic prediction error signal from the subcortical areas to the ACC (i.e., a bottom-up signal). Two studies were conducted in order to test a new model of FRN generation, which includes direct modulating influences of medial PFC (i.e., top-down signals) on the ACC at the time of the FRN. Study 1 examined the effects of one’s sense of control (top-down) and of informative cues (bottom-up) on the FRN measures. In Study 2, sense of control and instruction-based (top-down) and probability-based expectations (bottom-up) were manipulated to test the proposed model. The results suggest that any influences of medial PFC on the activity of the ACC that occur in the context of incentive tasks are not direct. The FRN was shown to be sensitive to salient stimulus characteristics. The results of this dissertation partially support the reinforcement learning theory, in that the FRN is a marker for prediction error signal from subcortical areas. However, the pattern of results outlined here suggests that prediction errors are based on salient stimulus characteristics and are not reward specific. A second goal of this dissertation was to examine whether ACC activity, measured through the FRN, is altered in individuals at-risk for problem-gambling behaviour (PG). Individuals in this group were more sensitive to the valence of the outcome in a gambling task compared to not at-risk individuals, suggesting that gambling contexts increase the sensitivity of the reward system to valence of the outcome in individuals at risk for PG. Furthermore, at-risk participants showed an increased sensitivity to reward characteristics and a decreased response to loss outcomes. This contrasts with those not at risk whose FRNs were sensitive to losses. As the results did not replicate previous research showing attenuated FRNs in pathological gamblers, it is likely that the size and time of the FRN does not change gradually with increasing risk of maladaptive behaviour. Instead, changes in ACC activity reflected by the FRN in general can be observed only after behaviour becomes clinically maladaptive or through comparison between different types of gain/loss outcomes.