Improving photovoltaics grid integration through short time forecasting and self-consumption

The uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation is a major drawback for the widespread introduction of this technology into electricity grids. This uncertainty is a challenge in the design and operation of electrical systems that include photovoltaic generation. Demand-Side Management (DSM) techniques are widely used to modify energy consumption. If local photovoltaic generation is available, DSM techniques can use generation forecast to schedule the local consumption. On the other hand, local storage systems can be used to separate electricity availability from instantaneous generation; therefore, the effects of forecast error in the electrical system are reduced. The effects of uncertainty associated to the forecast of photovoltaic generation in a residential electrical system equipped with DSM techniques and a local storage system are analyzed in this paper. The study has been performed in a solar house that is able to displace a residential user?s load pattern, manage local storage and estimate forecasts of electricity generation. A series of real experiments and simulations have carried out on the house. The results of this experiments show that the use of Demand Side Management (DSM) and local storage reduces to 2% the uncertainty on the energy exchanged with the grid. In the case that the photovoltaic system would operate as a pure electricity generator feeding all generated electricity into grid, the uncertainty would raise to around 40%.

Wind tunnel analysis of the aerodynamic loads on rolling stock over railway embankments: the effect of shelter windbreaks

Wind-flow pattern over embankments involves an overexposure of the rolling stock travelling on them to wind loads. Windbreaks are a common solution for changing the flow characteristic in order to decrease unwanted effects induced by the presence of crosswind. The shelter effectiveness of a set of windbreaks placed over a railway twin-track embankment is experimentally analysed. A set of two-dimensional wind tunnel tests are undertaken and results corresponding to pressure tap measurements over a section of a typical high-speed train are herein presented.The results indicate that even small-height windbreaks provide sheltering effects to the vehicles. Also, eaves located at the windbreak tips seem to improve their sheltering effect.

A dynamic factor model for mid-term forecasting of wind power generation

The main objective of this paper is the development and application of multivariate time series models for forecasting aggregated wind power production in a country or region. Nowadays, in Spain, Denmark or Germany there is an increasing penetration of this kind of renewable energy, somehow to reduce energy dependence on the exterior, but always linked with the increaseand uncertainty affecting the prices of fossil fuels. The disposal of accurate predictions of wind power generation is a crucial task both for the System Operator as well as for all the agents of the Market. However, the vast majority of works rarely onsider forecasting horizons longer than 48 hours, although they are of interest for the system planning and operation. In this paper we use Dynamic Factor Analysis, adapting and modifying it conveniently, to reach our aim: the computation of accurate forecasts for the aggregated wind power production in a country for a forecasting horizon as long as possible, particularly up to 60 days (2 months). We illustrate this methodology and the results obtained for real data in the leading country in wind power production: Denmark

Unit Commitment and Electricity Prices Forecasting for Market Strategy Preparation in Interconnected Systems

In this paper we present a solution for building a better strategy to take part in external electricity markets. For an optimal strategy development, both the internal system costs as well as the future values of the series of electricity prices in external markets need to be known. But in practice, the real problems that must be faced are that both future electricity prices and costs are unknown. Thus, the first ones must be modeled and forecasted and the costs must be calculated. Our methodology for building an optimal strategy consists of three steps: The first step is modeling and forecasting market prices in external systems. The second step is the cost calculation on internal system taking into account the expected prices in the first step. The third step is based on the results of the previous steps, and consists of preparing the bids for external markets. The main goal is to reduce consumers' costs unlike many others that are oriented to increase GenCo's profits.

Optimal selectin-mediated rolling of leukocytes during inflammation in vivo requires intercellular adhesion molecule-1 expression

Leukocyte interactions with vascular endothelium during inflammation occur through discrete steps involving selectin-mediated leukocyte rolling and subsequent firm adhesion mediated by members of the integrin and Ig families of adhesion molecules. To identify functional synergy between selectin and Ig family members, mice deficient in both L-selectin and intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1) were generated. Leukocyte rolling velocities in cremaster muscle venules were increased significantly in ICAM-1-deficient mice during both trauma- and tumor necrosis factor α-induced inflammation, but rolling leukocyte flux was not reduced. Elimination of ICAM-1 expression in L-selectin-deficient mice resulted in a sharp reduction in the flux of rolling leukocytes during tumor necrosis factor α-induced inflammation. The observed differences in leukocyte rolling behavior demonstrated that ICAM-1 expression was required for optimal P- and L-selectin-mediated rolling. Increased leukocyte rolling velocities presumably translated into decreased tissue emigration because circulating neutrophil, monocyte, and lymphocyte numbers were increased markedly in L-selectin/ICAM-1-deficient mice. Furthermore, neutrophil emigration during acute peritonitis was reduced by 80% in the double-deficient mice compared with either L-selectin or ICAM-1-deficient mice. Thus, members of the selectin and Ig families function synergistically to mediate optimal leukocyte rolling in vivo, which is essential for the generation of effective inflammatory responses.

Lipoxin A4 stable analogs inhibit leukocyte rolling and adherence in the rat mesenteric microvasculature: Role of P-selectin

Three different stable lipoxin A4 (LXA4) analogs (i.e., 16-phenoxy-LXA4-Me, 15-cyclohexyl-LXA4-Me, and 15-R/S-methyl-LXA4-Me) were studied for their ability to modulate leukocyte-endothelial cell interactions in the rat mesenteric microvasculature. Superfusion of the rat mesentery with 50 μmol/liter NG-nitro-l-arginine methyl ester (l-NAME) caused a significant, time-dependent increase in leukocyte rolling (56 ± 8 cells/min; P < 0.01 vs. control) and leukocyte adherence (12.5 ± 1.2 cells/100 μm length of venule; P < 0.01 vs. control) after 120 min of superfusion. Concomitant superfusion of the rat mesentery with 10 nmol/liter of each of three lipoxin analogs consistently and markedly attenuated l-NAME-induced leukocyte rolling to 10 ± 4 (P < 0.01), 4 ± 1 (P < 0.01), and 32 ± 7 (P < 0.05) cells/min, and adherence to 4 ± 0.8 (P < 0.01), 1.1 ± 0.4 (P < 0.01), and 7 ± 0.7 (P < 0.05) cells/100 μm length of venule (16-phenoxy-LXA4-Me, 15-cyclohexyl-LXA4-Me, and 15-R/S- methyl-LXA4-Me, respectively). No alterations of systemic blood pressure or mesenteric venular shear rates were observed in any group. Immunohistochemical up-regulation of P-selectin expression on intestinal venular endothelium was significantly increased (P < 0.01) after exposure to l-NAME, and this was significantly attenuated by these lipoxin analogs (P < 0.01). Thus, in vivo superfusion of the rat mesentery with stable lipoxin analogs at 10 nmol/liter reduces l-NAME-induced leukocyte rolling and adherence in the mesenteric rat microvasculature by attenuating P-selectin expression. This anti-inflammatory mechanism may represent a novel and potent regulatory action of lipoxins on the immune system.

Immunoassays with rolling circle DNA amplification: A versatile platform for ultrasensitive antigen detection

We describe an adaptation of the rolling circle amplification (RCA) reporter system for the detection of protein Ags, termed “immunoRCA.” In immunoRCA, an oligonucleotide primer is covalently attached to an Ab; thus, in the presence of circular DNA, DNA polymerase, and nucleotides, amplification results in a long DNA molecule containing hundreds of copies of the circular DNA sequence that remain attached to the Ab and that can be detected in a variety of ways. Using immunoRCA, analytes were detected at sensitivities exceeding those of conventional enzyme immunoassays in ELISA and microparticle formats. The signal amplification afforded by immunoRCA also enabled immunoassays to be carried out in microspot and microarray formats with exquisite sensitivity. When Ags are present at concentrations down to fM levels, specifically bound Abs can be scored by counting discrete fluorescent signals arising from individual Ag–Ab complexes. Multiplex immunoRCA also was demonstrated by accurately quantifying Ags mixed in different ratios in a two-color, single-molecule-counting assay on a glass slide. ImmunoRCA thus combines high sensitivity and a very wide dynamic range with an unprecedented capability for single molecule detection. This Ag-detection method is of general applicability and is extendable to multiplexed immunoassays that employ a battery of different Abs, each labeled with a unique oligonucleotide primer, that can be discriminated by a color-coded visualization system. ImmunoRCA-profiling based on the simultaneous quantitation of multiple Ags should expand the power of immunoassays by exploiting the increased information content of ratio-based expression analysis.

Lagging strand replication of rolling-circle plasmids: Specific recognition of the ssoA-type origins in different gram-positive bacteria

Many bacterial plasmids replicate by a rolling-circle mechanism that involves the generation of single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) intermediates. Replication of the lagging strand of such plasmids initiates from their single strand origin (sso). Many different types of ssos have been identified. One group of ssos, termed ssoA, which have conserved sequence and structural features, function efficiently only in their natural hosts in vivo. To study the host specificity of sso sequences, we have analyzed the functions of two closely related ssoAs belonging to the staphylococcal plasmid pE194 and the streptococcal plasmid pLS1 in Staphylococcus aureus. The pLS1 ssoA functioned poorly in vivo in S. aureus as evidenced by accumulation of high levels of ssDNA but supported efficient replication in vitro in staphylococcal extracts. These results suggest that one or more host factors that are present in sufficient quantities in S. aureus cell-free extracts may be limiting in vivo. Mapping of the initiation points of lagging strand synthesis in vivo and in vitro showed that DNA synthesis initiates from specific sites within the pLS1 ssoA. These results demonstrate that specific initiation of replication can occur from the pLS1 ssoA in S. aureus although it plays a minimal role in lagging strand synthesis in vivo. Therefore, the poor functionality of the pLS1 in vivo in a nonnative host is caused by the low efficiency rather than a lack of specificity of the initiation process. We also have identified ssDNA promoters and mapped the primer RNAs synthesized by the S. aureus and Bacillus subtilis RNA polymerases from the pE194 and pLS1 ssoAs. The S. aureus RNA polymerase bound more efficiently to the native pE194 ssoA as compared with the pLS1 ssoA, suggesting that the strength of RNA polymerase–ssoA interaction may play a major role in the functionality of the ssoA sequences in Gram-positive bacteria.

Visualization of oligonucleotide probes and point mutations in interphase nuclei and DNA fibers using rolling circle DNA amplification

Rolling circle amplification (RCA) is a surface-anchored DNA replication reaction that can be exploited to visualize single molecular recognition events. Here we report the use of RCA to visualize target DNA sequences as small as 50 nts in peripheral blood lymphocytes or in stretched DNA fibers. Three unique target sequences within the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene could be detected simultaneously in interphase nuclei, and could be ordered in a linear map in stretched DNA. Allele-discriminating oligonucleotide probes in conjunction with RCA also were used to discriminate wild-type and mutant alleles in the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator, p53, BRCA-1, and Gorlin syndrome genes in the nuclei of cultured cells or in DNA fibers. These observations demonstrate that signal amplification by RCA can be coupled to nucleic acid hybridization and multicolor fluorescence imaging to detect single nucleotide changes in DNA within a cytological context or in single DNA molecules. This provides a means for direct physical haplotyping and the analysis of somatic mutations on a cell-by-cell basis.

Rolling-circle transposons in eukaryotes

All eukaryotic DNA transposons reported so far belong to a single category of elements transposed by the so-called “cut-and-paste” mechanism. Here, we report a previously unknown category of eukaryotic DNA transposons, Helitron, which transpose by rolling-circle replication. Autonomous Helitrons encode a 5′-to-3′ DNA helicase and nuclease/ligase similar to those encoded by known rolling-circle replicons. Helitron-like transposons have conservative 5′-TC and CTRR-3′ termini and do not have terminal inverted repeats. They contain 16- to 20-bp hairpins separated by 10–12 nucleotides from the 3′-end and transpose precisely between the 5′-A and T-3′, with no modifications of the AT target sites. Together with their multiple diverged nonautonomous descendants, Helitrons constitute ≈2% of both the Arabidopsis thaliana and Caenorhabditis elegans genomes and also colonize the Oriza sativa genome. Sequence conservation suggests that Helitrons continue to be transposed.

Rolling replication of short DNA circles.

Natural genes and proteins often contain tandemly repeated sequence motifs that dramatically increase physiological specificity and activity. Given the selective value of such repeats, it is likely that several different mechanisms have been responsible for their generation. One mechanism that has been shown to generate relatively long tandem repeats (in the kilobase range) is rolling circle replication. In this communication, we demonstrate that rolling circle synthesis in a simple enzymatic system can produce tandem repeats of monomers as short as 34 bp. In addition to suggesting possible origins for natural tandem repeats, these observations provide a facile means for constructing libraries of repeated motifs for use in "in vitro evolution" experiments designed to select molecules with defined biological or chemical properties.

Estimating and forecasting generalized fractional Long memory stochastic volatility models

In recent years fractionally differenced processes have received a great deal of attention due to its flexibility in financial applications with long memory. This paper considers a class of models generated by Gegenbauer polynomials, incorporating the long memory in stochastic volatility (SV) components in order to develop the General Long Memory SV (GLMSV) model. We examine the statistical properties of the new model, suggest using the spectral likelihood estimation for long memory processes, and investigate the finite sample properties via Monte Carlo experiments. We apply the model to three exchange rate return series. Overall, the results of the out-of-sample forecasts show the adequacy of the new GLMSV model.