Talouskäsitysten vaikutus hallituksen suosioon Puolassa 2006–2007

Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan äänestäjien talouskäsitysten vaikutusta hallituksen suosioon Puolassa vuosina 2006 ja 2007. Tutkimusasetelma juontaa juurensa poliittisten suhdannevaihteluiden teoriaan, jonka mukaan poliitikot pyrkivät manipuloimaan taloutta vaalien alla tullakseen uudelleen valituiksi. Vastuullisuushypoteesin mukaan äänestäjät palkitsevat poliitikot hyvästä taloustilanteesta. Näin ollen mikäli äänestäjät ovat tyytyväisiä talouteen he äänestävät hallitusta. Mikäli eivät, he äänestävät oppositiota. Miten äänestäjät sitten tekevät arvionsa taloudesta? Tutkielmassa selvitetään vaikuttiko äänestäjien mielipiteisiin käsitys nykyisestä vai tulevaisuuden taloustilanteesta. Käsitys nykyisestä taloustilanteesta perustuu havaintoihin jo toteutuneesta talouspolitiikasta. Tätä käsitystä kutsutaan retrospektiiviseksi näkemykseksi. Prospektiiviset talousnäkemykset koostuvat näkemyksestä ja odotuksista talouden tulevasta tilasta ja uskosta hallituksen kykyyn tarjota paras vaihtoehto suotuisalle talouskehitykselle. Aikaulottuvuuden lisäksi tutkielmassa testataan, vaikuttaako äänestäjiin enemmän heidän oma taloustilanteensa vai näkemys yleisestä talouden tilanteesta. Mikäli hallituksen suosio perustuu näkemyksiin henkilökohtaisen talouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät egotrooppisia. Mikäli kannatuspäätös perustuu näkemykseen kansantalouden tilasta, ovat äänestäjät puolestaan sosiotrooppisia. Aineistona tutkielmassa käytetään uusinta saatavilla olevaa Puolan mielipidetiedustelun (Centrum Badania Opinii Publicznej) keräämää kyselyaineistoa vuosilta 2006 ja 2007. Tutkielmassa on yhdistetty kyselyaineistot 22:n kuukauden ajalta. Aineistoa on analysoitu logistisen regressioanalyysin menetelmin. Tutkielman perusteella talousnäkemyksistä suurin vaikutus hallituksen suosioon on äänestäjien näkemyksillä kansantalouden tulevaisuuden tilasta. Henkilökohtaisen talouden osalta positiiviset tulevaisuudennäkymät vaikuttavat positiivisesti myös hallituksen kannatukseen. Retrospektiivinen arvio henkilökohtaisesta taloudesta toimii kuitenkin teorian vastaisesti; oman taloudellisen tilanteen hyväksi arvioineiden todennäköisyys kannatta hallitusta oli pienempää kuin niillä, jotka arvioivat oman taloustilanteensa huonoksi. Kontrollimuuttujiksi valittiin joukko aiemmassa tutkimuksessa äänestyskäyttäytymiseen Puolassa vaikuttaneita tekijöitä. Näitä olivat ikä, sukupuoli, koulutus, asuinpaikka, näkemys työllisyystilanteesta, ideologinen sijoittuminen oikeisto–vasemmisto-akselilla sekä uskonnollisuus. Kontrollimuuttujista merkitseviksi osoittautuivat uskonnollisuus, oikeisto–vasemmisto-ideologia, koulutus, asuinpaikka sekä ikä. Kun edellä mainitut taustamuuttujat on kontrolloitu, taloustekijät selittävät noin viidesosan hallituksen kannatuksen todennäköisyyden vaihtelusta.

An Axiom of Military Law : Applicability of National Criminal Law to Military Personnel and Associated Civilians Abroad

States regularly deploy elements of their armed forces abroad. When that happens, the military personnel concerned largely remain governed by the penal law of the State that they serve. This extraterritorial extension of national criminal law, which has been treated as axiomatic in domestic law and ignored by international law scholarship, is the subject of this dissertation. The first part of the study considers the ambit of national criminal law without any special regard to the armed forces. It explores the historical development of the currently prevailing system of territorial law and looks at the ambit that national legal systems claim today. Turning then to international law, the study debunks the oddly persistent belief that States enjoy a freedom to extend their laws to extraterritorial conduct as they please, and that they are in this respect constrained only by some specific prohibitions in international law. Six arguments historical, empirical, ideological, functional, doctrinal and systemic are advanced to support a contrary view: that States are prohibited from extending the reach of their legal systems abroad, unless they can rely on a permissive principle of international law for doing so. The second part of the study deals specifically with State jurisdiction in a military context, that is to say, as applied to military personnel in the strict sense (service members) and various civilians serving with or accompanying the forces (associated civilians). While the status of armed forces on foreign soil has transformed from one encapsulated in the customary concept of extraterritoriality to a modern regulation of immunities granted by treaties, elements of armed forces located abroad usually do enjoy some degree of insulation from the legal system of the host State. As a corollary, they should generally remain covered by the law of their own State. The extent of this extraterritorial extension of national law is revealed in a comparative review of national legislation, paying particular attention to recent legal reforms in the United States and the United Kingdom two states that have sought to extend the scope of their national law to cover the conduct of military contractor personnel. The principal argument of the dissertation is that applying national criminal law to service members and associated civilians abroad is distinct from other extraterritorial claims of jurisdiction (in particular, the nationality principle or the protective principle of jurisdiction). The service jurisdiction over the armed forces has a distinct aim: ensuring the coherence and indivisibility of the forces and maintaining discipline. Furthermore, the exercise of service jurisdiction seeks to reduce the chances of the State itself becoming internationally liable for the conduct of its service members and associated civilians. Critically, the legal system of the troop-deploying State, by extending its reach abroad, seeks to avoid accountability gaps that might result from immunities from host State law.

"Musiikki merkitsee minulle paljon" : Asennetutkimus musiikin opiskelun merkityksellisyydestä peruskoulun 9. luokkalaisille

The main purpose of the Master Thesis was to find out what kind of attitudes the pupils in the 9th grade of Finnish comprehensive school have towards music as a school subject and compare it to the attitudes of the principals at a school level. The theoretical context of the research is based on the former studies of the significance of music education in the comprehensive school, the connection between learning and attitudes and the motivational factors towards the study motivation of music. In addition to this, I have analysed the role of the evaluation and the assessment from the point of view of developing the educational system and what is the role of management and leadership in relation to the pupils` behaviour and attitudes. The data of the research is the Finnish National Board of Education`s collected data of the assessment of the learning outcomes of arts education and it is nationally representative (N=5056 I phase and n=1570 II phase), both the Finnish-language and the Swedish-language pupil data. I have especially concentrated on the items of measuring the attitudes, the certain background variables and the questionnaire of the principals. The numerical data was analyzed using the multivariate statistical methods. The results of the research prove that in general the pupils and the principals think that music is quite significant as a school subject. The girls valued music on average more than the boys when comparing all the dimensions. The differences were systematic but the effect sizes were under 10 %. There were not statistically significant differences between the Finnish-language and the Swedish-language pupils. Comparing the grades of music in the 7th grade, the differences were growing linearly and the effect size was 15.7 %. There was a positive statistically significant correlation between the Significance of music and music as a hobby (Active interest in music, Informal interest in music, Taking part of music activities in the school) during free time. The strongest correlation were with the Active interest in music variable (r= 0.53, p= .000). Also the principals thought that music is important as a school subject considering the development of the pupil and the function of the school. The answers of the pupils were not clustering at a school level and there were no strong correlations between the attitudes of the pupils and the principals. A statistically nearly significant and a slight correlation (r= 0.21, p= .011) was found between the principals valuing the Significance of the music for school function and the pupils valuing the Benefits and hobbyism. The role of a well-motivated and active music teacher can be important from this point of view. The most important conclusion of the research was that the significance of music is a very personal individual level phenomenon. The results highlight also that in the pupils` opinion the most important thing about music lessons is to musical activity and learning as an experience.

Credit Default Swaps and Insurance: Against the Potts Opinion

Little attention has been given to the possibility that CDS transactions might be construed as insurance contracts in English law. This article challenges the widespread “Potts opinion”, which states that CDSs are not insurance, because they do not require the protection buyer to sustain a loss or to have an insurable interest in the subject matter. CDSs often do provide protection against loss that the buyer is exposed to; loss indemnity is not a necessary characterisation of an insurance contract; insurable interest does not form part of the definition of insurance, but is an additional requirement of valid insurance; and what matters is the substance not the form of the contract. The situation in the US and Australia is also briefly considered.

The Tourism-Development Nexus in Namibia : A Study on National Tourism Policy and Local Tourism Enterprises' Policy Knowledge

The tourism development nexus in southern Africa involves highly topical issues related to tourism planning, power relations, community participation, and natural resources. Namibia offers a particularly interesting context for the study of these issues due to its colonial legacy, vast tourism potential, recently adopted tourism policy and community-based approaches to tourism and natural resource management. This study is an interdisciplinary endeavour to analyse the role of tourism in Namibia s post-apartheid transformation process by focusing on Namibian tourism policy and local tourism enterprises' policy knowledge. Major attention is paid to how the tourism policy's national development objectives are understood and conceptualised by the representatives of different tourism enterprises and the ways in which they relate to the practical needs of the enterprises. Through such local policy knowledge the study explores various opportunities, challenges and constraints related to the promotion of tourism as a development strategy. The study utilises a political economy approach to tourism and development through three current and interrelated discourses which are relevant in the Namibian context. These are tourism, power and inequality, tourism and sustainable development, and tourism and poverty reduction. The qualitative research material was gathered in Namibia in 2006-2007 and 2008. This material consists of 34 semi-structured interviews in 16 tourism enterprises, including private trophy hunting farms and private lodges, small tour operators and community-based tourism enterprises. In addition, the research material consists of observations in the enterprises, and 37 informal and 23 expert interviews. The findings indicate that in the light of local tourism enterprises the tourism policy objectives appear more complex and ambiguous. Furthermore, they involve multiple meanings and interpretations which reflect the socio-economic stratification of the informants and Namibian society, together with the professional stratification of the tourism enterprises and restrictions on the capacity of tourism to address the development objectives. In the light of such findings it is obvious that aspects of power and inequality affect the tourism development nexus in Namibia. The study concludes that, as in the case of other southern African countries, in order to promote sustainable development and reduce poverty, Namibia should not only target tourism growth but pay attention to who benefits from that growth and how. From a political economy point of view, it is important that prevailing structural challenges are addressed equally in the planning of tourism, development and natural resource management. Such approach would help the Namibian majority to enjoy the benefits of increasing tourism in the country.

Whose ETSIP? National and local ownership of Namibia's education and training sector improvement programme

Tämä työ tarkastelee kansallista ja paikallista omistajuutta Namibian opetussektorin kehittämisohjelmassa. Opetussektorin kehittämisohjelma ETSIP on 15-vuotinen sektoriohjelma vuosille 2005-2015 ja sen tavoitteena on edesauttaa Namibian kehittymistä tietoyhteiskunnaksi. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää miten kansallinen ja paikallinen omistajuus on toteutunut ETSIP prosessin aikana. Erityisesti pyritään selvittämään paikallistason opetussektorin virkamiesten näkemyksiä ETSIP prosessista, heidän roolistaan siinä ja siitä millaisia vaikuttamisen ja hallinnan mahdollisuuksia heillä on ollut prosessin aikana. Tutkimuksen lähtökohta on laadullinen ja lähestymistapa konstruktionistinen: tutkimus tarkastelee todellisuutta ihmisten kokemusten, näkemysten ja toiminnan kautta. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu haastatteluista, epävirallisista keskusteluista, lehtiartikkeleista ja ETSIP dokumenteista. Tutkimus osoittaa että kansallinen omistajuus on epämääräinen käsite sillä kansallisia toimijoita ja näkemyksiä on useita. Tutkimus vahvistaa Castel-Brancon huomion siitä, että omistajuutta on tarkasteltava kontekstissaan: muuttuvana ja kilpailtuna. ETSIPin rinnalle ollaan valmistelemassa uutta strategista ohjelmaa opetusministeriölle mikä saattaa muuttaa omistajuutta ETSIPiin. ETSIP dokumenttien omistajuusretoriikka myötäilee kansainvälisiä sitoumuksia avun vaikuttavuuden parantamiseksi mutta niistä puuttuu syvällisempi analyysi siitä, miten kansallinen ja paikallinen omistajuus toteutuisi käytännössä. Avunantajien näkemys omistajuudesta on suppea: omistajuus nähdään lähinnä sitoutumisena ennalta määrättyyn politiikkaohjelmaan. Haastatteluaineistosta nousee esiin Whitfieldin ja Frazerin jaottelu suppeista ja laajoista omistajuuskäsityksistä. Sitoutumista ETSIP ohjelmaan pidetään tärkeänä mutta riittämättömänä määritteenä omistajuudelle. Paikallisella tasolla sitoutuminen ETSIP ohjelman periaatteisiin ja tavoitteisiin on toteutunut melko hyvin mutta jos omistajuutta tarkastellaan laajemmin vaikutusvallan ja hallinnan käsitteiden kautta voidaan todeta että omistajuus on ollut heikkoa. Paikallisella tasolla ei ole ollut juurikaan vaikutusvaltaa ETSIP ohjelman sisältöön eikä mahdollisuutta hallita ohjelman toteutusta ja päättää siitä mitä hankkeita ohjelman kautta rahoitetaan. Tujanin demokraattisen omistajuuden käsite kuvaa tarvetta muuttaa ja laajentaa omistajuusajattelua huomioiden paikallisen tason paremmin. Tämä tutkimus viittaa siihen että omistajuuden toteutuminen paikallisella tasolla edellyttäisi institutionaalisen kulttuurin muutosta ja institutionaalisen legitimiteetin vahvistamista. Omistajuuden mahdollistamiseksi paikallisella tasolla tarvittaisiin poliittista johtajuutta, luottamusta, vastuullisuuden kulttuurin kehittämistä, tehokkaampaa tiedonjakoa, laajaa osallistumista, vuoropuhelua ja yhteistyötä. Ennen kaikkea tarvittaisiin paikallisen tason vaikutusvaltaa päätöksenteossa ja kontrollia resurssien käytöstä. Tälle muutokselle on selvä tarve ja tilaus.

Estimating national contributions of greenhouse gas emissions :The CSE-WRI controversy

Analysts have identified four related questions that need to be asked and answered before agreements to respond to global warming will be possible.1 Which countries bear responsibility for causing the problem? What quantities and mix of greenhouse gases should each country be allowed to emit? Which countries have the resources to do something about the problem? Where are the best opportunities for undertaking projects to respond to the problem? Failure to distinguish among these four questions, or willingness to accept superficial answers, promotes unnecessary controversy.

Nature of chemistry in the national frame curricula for upper secondary education in Finland, Norway and Sweden

The aim of this study was to discover how current chemistry syllabi in the frame curricula for up- per secondary education in three Nordic countries (Finland, Norway, and Sweden) take into account topics related to the nature of chemistry. By qualitative content analysis, the statements related to the nature of chemistry were divided into categories. Conclusions and implications for improving the frame curricula under study were made by comparing results with research into the nature of science. Chemistry syllabi from the Nordic frame curricula analyzed take into account the aims related to the nature of chemistry in a very similar manner. The ideas that should be made more explicit in all of the analyzed curricula are: i) the limits of the chemical models and theories, ii) the relationship between chemistry and other natural sciences, iii) the importance of creativity in chemical research, iv) the concepts of evidence in science texts, v) the social nature of chemical research, and vi) chemistry as a technological practice.

Rätt som argument : Leo Mechelin och finska frågan 1886-1912

Right as an Argument. Leo Mechelin and the Finnish Question 1886-1912 At the turn of the 20th century the Finnish Question rose up as a political and juridical issue at the international arena. The vaguely précised position of Finland in the Russian empire led to diverse conclusions concerning the correctness of the February manifesto of 1899. It was predominantly among a European elite of politicians, cultural workers and academics the issue rose some interest. Finns were active making propaganda for their cause, and they put an emphasis on the claim that the right was on the Finnish side. In the study Elisabeth Stubb compare the Finnish, Russian and European statements about the Finnish Question and analyse their use of right as an argument. The Finnish Question offers at the same time a case study of a national entity which possesses a political sphere of life but is not fully independent, and its possibilities to drive its interests in an international context. Leo Mechelin (1839-1914), the leader of the Finnish propaganda organization abroad, is used as a point of departure. The biographical stance is formed into a triangle, where Leo Mechelin, the idea of right and the Finnish Question abroad are the three cornerstones. The treatment of one cornerstone sheds a ligth on the two others. The metaphor of triangulation also worked as a method to reach "a third stance" in a scinetific and political issue that usually is polarised into two opposite alternatives. An adherence to a strict legal right could not in the end offer a complete, unquestionable and satisfactory solution to the Finnsih Question, it was dependent on "the right of state wisdom and sound insight". The Finnish propaganda abroad used almost completely alternative ways of making politics. The propaganda did not have a decisive effect on countries' official politics, but gained unofficial support, especially in the public opinion and in academic statements. Mechelin claimed that the political field was dependent on public opinion and scientific research. Together with the official politics these two fields formed a triangle that shared the task of balancing the political arena and preventing it from making unwise decisions of taking an unjust turn. The international sphere worked as a balancing part in the Finnish Question. Mechelin tried by claiming the status of state for Finland's part to secure the country a place at the official international arena. At the same time, and especially when the claim was not fully adopted, he emphasised, and in a European context worked for, that right would become the guiding light not only for international relations, but also for the policy making in the inner life of the state.

The Asian elephants Elephas maximus of Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam: status and conservation of a vanishing population

This study updates the status and conservation of the Endangered Asian elephant Elephas maximus in Cat Tien National Park, Vietnam. Line transect indirect surveys, block surveys for elephant signs, village surveys of elephant-human conflict incidents, guard-post surveys for records of sightings, and surveys of elephant food plants were undertaken during the dry and wet seasons of 2001. A minimum of 11 elephants and a maximum of 15-17 elephants was estimated for c. 500 km2 of the Park and its vicinity. The elephants are largely confined to the southern boundary of the Park and make extensive use of the adjoining La Nga State Forest Enterprises. During the dry season the elephants depend on at least 26 species of wild and cultivated plants, chiefly the fruits of cashew. Most of the villages surveyed reported some elephant-human conflict. Two adult male elephants seem to cover a large area to raid crops, whereas the family groups restrict themselves to a few villages; overall, the conflict is not serious. Since 2001 there have been no reports of any deaths or births of elephants in the Park. We make recommendations for habitat protection and management, increasing the viability of the small population, reducing elephant-human conflicts, and improving the chances of survival of the declining elephants of this Park. The Government has now approved an Action Plan for Urgent Conservation Areas in Vietnam that calls for the establishment of three elephant conservation areas in the country, including Cat Tien National Park.