Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok - II/1. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/1.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulipmania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which is to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before giving an account of the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal-military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of the way the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their own theorizing and explanations. The interpretations placed on it range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.

Buborékok és legendák. Válságok és válságmagyarázatok II/2. rész. A Déltengeri Társaság (Bubbles and myths crises and explanations II/2.: the South Sea bubble)

A cikk a tulipánmániával foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2009]). A Déltengeri Társaság 1720-as fellendülése és kipukkadása mindmáig egyike a pénzügyi történelem leghíresebb és leggyakrabban emlegetett buborékainak. A közgazdaságtanban a buborék sokáig nem volt fontos téma, de az utóbbi időben ismét divatba jött. A tanulmány először a buborékmetafora néhány irodalmi példáját mutatja be, majd összefoglalja az angol államadósság kialakulását, a korai modern fiskális-militarista állam létrejöttét és a pénzügyi forradalom különböző interpretációit. A Déltengeri Társaság történetének, az adósság-részvény csere lebonyolításának és a korabeli vélemények spektrumának ismertetése után áttekintést ad arról, milyen módon és céllal használták fel az 1720-as eseményeket közgazdászok és történészek saját magyarázataikban. Ezek skálája a tudatos csalástól a befektetők irracionális mániáján át a racionális buborék kialakulásáig terjed. / === / The first part of the study (published here in 2009) was devoted to "tulip-mania". This article continues the account of early bubbles and crises with the 1720 boom and bust of the South Sea Company, which remains to this day one of the best known and most cited examples in history. For several decades, bubbles were not seen as an important issue in economic and financial theory, but recent events have focused attention on them again. The author introduces some historical examples of the bubble metaphor in literature, before describing the emergence of British public debt and the fiscal/military state, and summarizing various interpretations of the financial revolution. An account of the South Sea Bubble, a detailed description of the debt-equity swap, and citations from some contemporary investors and observers are followed by an overview of how the events of 1720 were used subsequently by various economists and historians in their theorizing and explanations. Such interpretations range from deliberate fraud, through irrational investment mania, to the emergence of a rational bubble.

A korrupció társadalmi és intézményi szerkezete

A tanulmány első részében a megbízó-megbízott-kliens modellt fogalmi keretként alkalmazva a korrupció négy ideáltípusát mutatjuk be: míg a vesztegetést és zsarolást a megbízott és kliens közti, addig a hűtlen kezelést és csalást a megbízó és megbízott közti tranzakcióként definiáljuk. A korrupció ezen alaptípusait irányított gráfok segítségével ábrázoljuk. Ezt követően a korrupciós ügyletek szereplőinek lehetséges (pl. a tranzakciós költségek és a lebukási kockázatok csökkentésére irányuló) motivációit vizsgáljuk, vagyis azt, hogy mely tényezők ösztönzik leginkább a korrupciós helyzetek szereplőit arra, hogy tranzakcióikat különböző típusú személyes, üzleti, politikai és egyéb intézményes kapcsolathálókba ágyazzák. A második részben – támaszkodva korábbi kutatásaink eredményeire – néhány tipikus magyarországi korrupciós tranzakció társadalmi és intézményi beágyazottságát mutatjuk be. Négy esettanulmányt elemzünk részletesen, a bemutatott tipikus (pl. pártfinanszírozáshoz, vagy engedélyek megszerzéséhez kapcsolódó) korrupciós hálózatokat pedig többszereplős, bonyolult és multiplex gráfokkal ábrázoljuk. Végül a komplex hálózatok evolúciós vonatkozásait a szereplők számának, a kapcsolatok komplexitásának, valamint a személyi és/vagy intézményi beágyazottság mértékének tükrében vizsgáljuk. ______ In the first part of the paper four idealtypical corruption transactions are explicated in terms of the principal-agent-client model: bribery and extortion are described as two different types of agent-client relationship, while embezzlement and fraud as two different types of principal-agent relationship. The main idea is to describe these elementary corruption transactions as simple directed graphs. The next section of the paper takes into consideration different kinds of possible motivations (such as the reduction of risks or transaction costs) of the principals, agents and clients, in order to embed their corruption transactions in various kinds of personal, business, political and other institutional networks. In the second part of the paper some typical and stable network configurations are presented, based on a recent empirical corruption research carried out in Hungary. Certain corruption cases (such as party financing or granting of permit) are analyzed in details, and are described as complex and multiple networks. The paper concludes in showing some signs of the evolution of corruption networks in Hungary in terms of the number of actors, of the complexity of network configurations, of the level of personal or institutional embeddedness, and of the multiplexity of relationships.

Attributes of identity document credibility: A synthesis of expert knowledge

In broad terms — including a thief's use of existing credit card, bank, or other accounts — the number of identity fraud victims in the United States ranges 9-10 million per year, or roughly 4% of the US adult population. The average annual theft per stolen identity was estimated at $6,383 in 2006, up approximately 22% from $5,248 in 2003; an increase in estimated total theft from $53.2 billion in 2003 to $56.6 billion in 2006. About three million Americans each year fall victim to the worst kind of identity fraud: new account fraud. Names, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and other data are acquired fraudulently from the issuing organization, or from the victim then these data are used to create fraudulent identity documents. In turn, these are presented to other organizations as evidence of identity, used to open new lines of credit, secure loans, “flip” property, or otherwise turn a profit in a victim's name. This is much more time consuming — and typically more costly — to repair than fraudulent use of existing accounts. ^ This research borrows from well-established theoretical backgrounds, in an effort to answer the question – what is it that makes identity documents credible? Most importantly, identification of the components of credibility draws upon personal construct psychology, the underpinning for the repertory grid technique, a form of structured interviewing that arrives at a description of the interviewee’s constructs on a given topic, such as credibility of identity documents. This represents substantial contribution to theory, being the first research to use the repertory grid technique to elicit from experts, their mental constructs used to evaluate credibility of different types of identity documents reviewed in the course of opening new accounts. The research identified twenty-one characteristics, different ones of which are present on different types of identity documents. Expert evaluations of these documents in different scenarios suggest that visual characteristics are most important for a physical document, while authenticated personal data are most important for a digital document. ^

Sales tax enforcement: An empirical analysis of compliance enforcement methodologies and pathologies

Most research on tax evasion has focused on the income tax. Sales tax evasion has been largely ignored and dismissed as immaterial. This paper explored the differences between income tax and sales tax evasion and demonstrated that sales tax enforcement is deserving of and requires the use of different tools to achieve compliance. Specifically, the major enforcement problem with sales tax is not evasion: it is theft perpetrated by companies that act as collection agents for the state. Companies engage in a principal-agent relationship with the state and many retain funds collected as an agent of the state for private use. As such, the act of sales tax theft bears more resemblance to embezzlement than to income tax evasion. It has long been assumed that the sales tax is nearly evasion free, and state revenue departments report voluntary compliance in a manner that perpetuates this myth. Current sales tax compliance enforcement methodologies are similar in form to income tax compliance enforcement methodologies and are based largely on trust. The primary focus is on delinquent filers with a very small percentage of businesses subject to audit. As a result, there is a very large group of noncompliant businesses who file on time and fly below the radar while stealing millions of taxpayer dollars. ^ The author utilized a variety of statistical methods with actual field data derived from operations of the Southern Region Criminal Investigations Unit of the Florida Department of Revenue to evaluate current and proposed sales tax compliance enforcement methodologies in a quasi-experimental, time series research design and to set forth a typology of sales tax evaders. This study showed that current estimates of voluntary compliance in sales tax systems are seriously and significantly overstated and that current enforcement methodologies are inadequate to identify the majority of violators and enforce compliance. Sales tax evasion is modeled using the theory of planned behavior and Cressey’s fraud triangle and it is demonstrated that proactive enforcement activities, characterized by substantial contact with non-delinquent taxpayers, results in superior ability to identify noncompliance and provides a structure through which noncompliant businesses can be rehabilitated.^

Three essays on corporate governance and meeting-beating or missing analyst forecasts

The beginning of the 21st century was plagued with unprecedented instances of corporate fraud. In an attempt to address apparent non-existent or “broken” corporate governance policies, sweeping measures of financial reporting reform ensued, having specific requirements relating to the composition of audit committees, the interaction between audit committees and external auditors, and procedures concerning auditors’ assessment of client risk. The purpose of my dissertation is to advance knowledge about “good” corporate governance by examining the association between meeting-or-beating analyst forecasts and audit fees, audit committee compensation, and audit committee tenure and “busyness”. Using regression analysis, I found the following: (1) the frequency of meeting-or-just beating (just missing) analyst forecasts is negatively (positively) associated with audit fees, (2) the extent by which a firm exceeds analysts’ forecasts is positively (negatively) associated with audit committee compensation that is predominately equity-based (cash-based), and (3) the likelihood of repeatedly meeting-or-just beating analyst forecasts is positively associated with audit committee tenure and “busyness”. These results suggest that auditors consider clients who frequently meet-or-just beat forecasts as being less “risky”, and clients that frequently just miss as being more “risky”. The results also imply that cash-based director compensation is more successful in preserving the effectiveness of the audit committee’s financial reporting oversight role, that equity-based compensation motivates independent audit committee directors to focus on short-term performance thereby aligning their interests with management, and that audit committee director tenure and the degree of director “busyness” can affect an audit committee member’s effectiveness in providing financial reporting oversight. Collectively, my dissertation provides additional insights regarding corporate governance practices and informs policy-makers for future relevant decisions.^

Larceny by Menu

Consumers are being ripped off by the food service industry when menus in establishments serving food misrepresent, substitute, and manipulate portions and the status of foods being served. A billion dollars a year in fraud is involved when menus offer the consumer one thing and deliver another.

A deontic analysis of inter -organizational control requirements

This research focuses on the design and verification of inter-organizational controls. Instead of looking at a documentary procedure, which is the flow of documents and data among the parties, the research examines the underlying deontic purpose of the procedure, the so-called deontic process, and identifies control requirements to secure this purpose. The vision of the research is a formal theory for streamlining bureaucracy in business and government procedures. ^ Underpinning most inter-organizational procedures are deontic relations, which are about rights and obligations of the parties. When all parties trust each other, they are willing to fulfill their obligations and honor the counter parties’ rights; thus controls may not be needed. The challenge is in cases where trust may not be assumed. In these cases, the parties need to rely on explicit controls to reduce their exposure to the risk of opportunism. However, at present there is no analytic approach or technique to determine which controls are needed for a given contracting or governance situation. ^ The research proposes a formal method for deriving inter-organizational control requirements based on static analysis of deontic relations and dynamic analysis of deontic changes. The formal method will take a deontic process model of an inter-organizational transaction and certain domain knowledge as inputs to automatically generate control requirements that a documentary procedure needs to satisfy in order to limit fraud potentials. The deliverables of the research include a formal representation namely Deontic Petri Nets that combine multiple modal logics and Petri nets for modeling deontic processes, a set of control principles that represent an initial formal theory on the relationships between deontic processes and documentary procedures, and a working prototype that uses model checking technique to identify fraud potentials in a deontic process and generate control requirements to limit them. Fourteen scenarios of two well-known international payment procedures—cash in advance and documentary credit—have been used to test the prototype. The results showed that all control requirements stipulated in these procedures could be derived automatically.^

Attributes of Identity Document Credibility: A Synthesis of Expert Knowledge

In broad terms — including a thief's use of existing credit card, bank, or other accounts — the number of identity fraud victims in the United States ranges 9-10 million per year, or roughly 4% of the US adult population. The average annual theft per stolen identity was estimated at $6,383 in 2006, up approximately 22% from $5,248 in 2003; an increase in estimated total theft from $53.2 billion in 2003 to $56.6 billion in 2006. About three million Americans each year fall victim to the worst kind of identity fraud: new account fraud. Names, Social Security numbers, dates of birth, and other data are acquired fraudulently from the issuing organization, or from the victim then these data are used to create fraudulent identity documents. In turn, these are presented to other organizations as evidence of identity, used to open new lines of credit, secure loans, “flip” property, or otherwise turn a profit in a victim's name. This is much more time consuming — and typically more costly — to repair than fraudulent use of existing accounts. This research borrows from well-established theoretical backgrounds, in an effort to answer the question – what is it that makes identity documents credible? Most importantly, identification of the components of credibility draws upon personal construct psychology, the underpinning for the repertory grid technique, a form of structured interviewing that arrives at a description of the interviewee’s constructs on a given topic, such as credibility of identity documents. This represents substantial contribution to theory, being the first research to use the repertory grid technique to elicit from experts, their mental constructs used to evaluate credibility of different types of identity documents reviewed in the course of opening new accounts. The research identified twenty-one characteristics, different ones of which are present on different types of identity documents. Expert evaluations of these documents in different scenarios suggest that visual characteristics are most important for a physical document, while authenticated personal data are most important for a digital document.

A Deontic Analysis of Inter-Organizational Control Requirements

This research focuses on the design and verification of inter-organizational controls. Instead of looking at a documentary procedure, which is the flow of documents and data among the parties, the research examines the underlying deontic purpose of the procedure, the so-called deontic process, and identifies control requirements to secure this purpose. The vision of the research is a formal theory for streamlining bureaucracy in business and government procedures. Underpinning most inter-organizational procedures are deontic relations, which are about rights and obligations of the parties. When all parties trust each other, they are willing to fulfill their obligations and honor the counter parties’ rights; thus controls may not be needed. The challenge is in cases where trust may not be assumed. In these cases, the parties need to rely on explicit controls to reduce their exposure to the risk of opportunism. However, at present there is no analytic approach or technique to determine which controls are needed for a given contracting or governance situation. The research proposes a formal method for deriving inter-organizational control requirements based on static analysis of deontic relations and dynamic analysis of deontic changes. The formal method will take a deontic process model of an inter-organizational transaction and certain domain knowledge as inputs to automatically generate control requirements that a documentary procedure needs to satisfy in order to limit fraud potentials. The deliverables of the research include a formal representation namely Deontic Petri Nets that combine multiple modal logics and Petri nets for modeling deontic processes, a set of control principles that represent an initial formal theory on the relationships between deontic processes and documentary procedures, and a working prototype that uses model checking technique to identify fraud potentials in a deontic process and generate control requirements to limit them. Fourteen scenarios of two well-known international payment procedures -- cash in advance and documentary credit -- have been used to test the prototype. The results showed that all control requirements stipulated in these procedures could be derived automatically.

Rose Ruiz, the alleged Boston Marathon winner

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Rose Ruiz, alleged Boston Marathon winner

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Election Quality and International Observation 1975-2004: Two New Datasets

This paper introduces two new datasets on national level elections from 1975 to 2004. The data are grouped into two separate datasets, the Quality of Elections Data and the Data on International Election Monitoring. Together these data sets provide original information on elections, election observation and election quality, and will enable researchers to study a variety of research questions. The datasets will be publicly available and are maintained at a project website.

The Online Romance Scam: A Serious Cybercrime

The Online Romance Scam is a relatively new form of fraud that became apparent in about 2008. In this crime, criminals pretend to initiate a relationship through online dating sites then defraud their victims of large sums of money. This paper presents some descriptive statistics about knowledge and victimization of the online dating romance scam in Great Britain. Our study found that despite its newness, an estimated 230,000 British citizens may have fallen victim to this crime. We conclude that there needs to be some rethinking about providing avenues for victims to report the crime or at least making them more comfortable when doing so.

Post tenebras spero lucem : Alquimia y ritos en el Quijote y otras obras cervantinas

This study focuses on two areas: alchemy (Part I) and rituals of initiation (Part II) in the works of Miguel de Cervantes, focusing on Don Quijote de la Mancha as my main case study. The first part analyses the function of alchemy and how it can be interpreted throughout the works and various literary genres of Cervantes. It will demonstrate that the texts of Cervantes contain both explicit and implicit allusions to, as well as different aspects of alchemy, such as operative and spiritual alchemy and how these are ultimately used by Cervantes as a means of expression. The author draws from this rich source and modifies these means of expression in order to achieve various results: sometimes with wit or in relation to fraud; at other times it focuses on inner alchemy relating to chivalry in what I have called spiritual chivalry, which has the aim of self-improvement and ultimately, gnosis. Regarding the chivalric rituals of initiation, according to this investigation chivalry serves as both satire and representation of the alchemical process in the case of Don Quijote, which finds its key moments during the rituals. In this sense alchemy and chivalry are studied as two sides of the same coin, in which the search for something higher, an object (the philosopher stone, the beloved), subjects the protagonist to continuous transmutations and puts him in contact with the transitory, that is, liminal states, people and spaces. From this perspective Don Quixote de la Mancha is built upon liminal poetics. My approach, which follows the tenets of analogical hermeneutics, is included within the framework of the Western Esotericism Studies. The 16th and 17th centuries were a fertile age for alchemy throughout Europe. In Spain, alchemy and other esoteric disciplines co-existed with the Spanish Inquisition and its body for the control of ideas and texts: censorship. By being ambiguous and putting into dialogue different ideas of alchemy, Cervantes not only allowed readers to reach their own conclusions, he also protected his work from censorship.