984 resultados para forecast deviation


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A nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopic method was validated for the quantitative determination of dimethylaminoethanol (DMAE) in cosmetic formulations. The linearity in the range from 0.5000 to 1.5000 g (DMAE salt/mass maleic acid) presents a correlation coefficient > 0.99 for all DMAE salts. The repeatability (intraday), expressed as relative standard deviation, ranged from 1.08 to 1.44% for samples and 1.31 to 1.88% for raw materials. The detection limit and quantitation limit were 0.0017 and 0.0051 g for DMAE, 0.0018 and 0.0054 g for DMAE bitartrate, and 0.0023 and 0.0071 g for DMAE acetamidobenzoate, respectively. The proposed method is simple, precise, and accurate and can be used in the quality control of raw materials and cosmetic gels containing these compounds as active substances.

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A simple, fast, inexpensive and reliable capillary zone electrophoresis (CZE) method for the determination of econazole nitrate in cream formulations has been developed and validated. Optimum conditions comprised a pH 2.5 phosphate buffer at 20 mmol L(-1) concentration, +30 kV applied voltage in a 31.5 cm x 50 mu m I.D. capillary. Direct UV detection at 200 nm led to an adequate sensitivity without interference from sample excipients. A single extraction step of the cream sample in hydrochloric acid was performed prior to injection. Imidazole (100 mu g mL(-1)) was used as internal standard. Econazole nitrate migrates in approximately 1.2 min. The analytical curve presented a coefficient of correlation of 0.9995. Detection and quantitation limits were 1.85 and 5.62 mu g mL(-1), respectively. Excellent accuracy and precision were obtained. Recoveries varied from 98.1 to 102.5% and intra- and inter-day precisions, calculated as relative standard deviation (RSD), were better than 2.0%. The proposed CZE method presented advantageous performance characteristics and it can be considered suitable for the quality control of econazole nitrate cream formulations. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Ayahuasca is an Amazonian plant beverage obtained by infusing the pounded stems of Banisteriopsis caapi in combination with the leaves of Psychotria viridis. P. viridis contains the psychedelic indole N,N-dimethyltryptamine (DMT). This association has a wide range of use in religious rituals around the world. In the present work, an easy, fast and non-destructive method by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance of proton ((1)H NMR) for quantification of DMT in ayahuasca samples was developed and validated. 2,5-Dimethoxybenzaldehyde (DMBO) was used as internal standard (IS). For this purpose, the area ratios produced by protons of DMT (N(CH(3))(2)) at 2.70 ppm, singlet, (6H) and for DMBO (Ar(OCH(3))(2)) at 3.80 and 3.89 ppm, doublet, (6H) were used for quantification. The lower limit of quantification (LLOQ) was 12.5 mu g/mL and a good intra-assay precision was also obtained (relative standard deviation < 5.1%). The present (1)H NMR method is not time consuming and can be readily applied to monitor this tryptamine in plant preparations. We believe that qNMR can be used for identification and quantification of many plant-based products and metabolites with important advantages, while comparing with other analytical techniques. (C) 2010 Phytochemical Society of Europe. Published by Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

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A three-phase liquid-phase microextraction (LPME) method using porous polypropylene hollow fibre membrane with a sealed end was developed for the extraction of mirtazapine (MRT) and its two major metabolites, 8-hydroxymirtazapine (8-OHM) and demethylmirtazapine (DMR), from human plasma. The analytes were extracted from 1.0 mL of plasma, previously diluted and alkalinized with 3.0 mL 0.5 mol L-1 pH 8 phosphate buffer solution and supplemented with 15% sodium chloride (NaCl), using n-hexyl ether as organic solvent and 0.01 moL L-1 acetic acid solution as the acceptor phase. Haloperidol was used as internal standard. The chromatographic analyses were carried out on a chiral column, using acetonitrile-methanol-ethanol (98:1:1, v/v/v) plus 0.2% diethylamine as mobile phase, at a flow rate of 1.0 mL min(-1). Multi-reaction monitoring (MRM) detection was performed by mass spectrometry (MS-MS) using a triple-stage quadrupole and electrospray ionization interface operating in the positive ion mode. The mean recoveries were in 18.3-45.5% range with linear responses over the 1.25-125 ng mL(-1) concentration range for all enantiomers evaluated. The quantification limit (LOQ) was 1.25 ng mL(-1). Within-day and between-day assay precision and accuracy (2.5, 50 and 100 ng mL(-1)) showed relative standard deviation and the relative error lower than 11.9% for all enantiomers evaluated. Finally, the method was successfully used for the determination of mirtazapine and its metabolite enantiomers in plasma samples obtained after single drug administration of mirtazapine to a healthy volunteer. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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A simple method was optimized and validated for determination of ractopamine hydrochloride (RAC) in raw material and feed additives by HPLC for use in quality control in veterinary industries. The best-optimized conditions were a C8 column (250 x 4.6 mm id, 5.0 mu m particle size) at room temperature with acetonitrile-100 mM sodium acetate buffer (pH 5.0; 75 + 25, v/v) mobile phase at a flow rate of 1.0 mL/min and UV detection at 275 nm. With these conditions, the retention time of RAC was around 5.2 min, and standard curves were linear in the concentration range of 160-240 mu g/mL (correlation coefficient >= 0.999). Validation parameters, such as selectivity, linearity, limit of detection (ranged from 1.60 to 2.05 mu g/mL), limit of quantification (ranged from 4.26 to 6.84 mu g/mL), precision (relative standard deviation <= 1.87%), accuracy (ranged from 96.97 to 100.54%), and robustness, gave results within acceptable ranges. Therefore, the developed method can be successfully applied for the routine quality control analysis of raw material and feed additives.

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The aim of this work was to study the behaviour of conventional spouted beds during water evaporation and to analyze the pressure fluctuations at the maximum water evaporative capacity for different bed heights and air flow rates. The results showed that spout pressure drop could not indicate the proximity of maximum evaporative capacity; however this condition is denoted by a minimum in fountain height. The standard deviation and amplitude of the pressure fluctuations also showed a minimum point at the maximum water evaporation capacity. The frequency domain analysis of pressure fluctuations revealed that the dry bed has a dominant frequency varying from 6 to 8.2 Hz and that the peak of dominant frequency tends to disappear with the increase in water feed rate.

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Palladium plus magnesium nitrates with and without Ir, Ru and W were evaluated for the simultaneous determination of As, Cu and Pb in cachaca by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. For 20 mu L sample, 5 mu L Pd(NO(3))(2) and 3 mu L Mg(NO(3))(2) dispensed together onto the Ir-coated platform of the THGA, analytical curves in the 0-30.0 mu g L(-1) As, 0-1.50 mg L(-1) Cu and 0-60.0 mu g L(-1) Pb were built up and typical linear correlation coefficients were always better than 0.999. The limit of detection was 1.30 mu g L(-1) As, 140 mu g L(-1) Cu and 0.90 mu g L(-1) Pb. As, Cu and Pb contents in 10 cachaca samples agreed with those obtained by ICP-MS. Recoveries of spiked samples varied from 96% to 106% (As), 97% to 112% (Cu) and 92% to 108% (Pb). The relative standard deviation (n = 12) was typically 2.7%, 3.3% and 1.9%. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Mediated physical activity interventions can reach large numbers of people at low cost. Programs delivered through the mail that target the stage of motivational readiness have been shown to increase activity. Communication technology (websites and e-mail) might provide a means for delivering similar programs. Randomized trial conducted between August and October 2001. Participants included staff at an Australian university (n=655; mean AGE=43, standard deviation, 10 years). Participants were randomized to either an 8-week, stage-targeted print program (Print) or 8-week, stage-targeted website (Web) program. The main outcome was change in self-reported physical activity.

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We present the temperature dependence of the uniform susceptibility of spin-half quantum antiferromagnets on spatially anisotropic triangular lattices, using high-temperature series expansions. We consider a model with two exchange constants J1 and J2 on a lattice that interpolates between the limits of a square lattice (J1=0), a triangular lattice (J2=J1), and decoupled linear chains (J2=0). In all cases, the susceptibility, which has a Curie-Weiss behavior at high temperatures, rolls over and begins to decrease below a peak temperature Tp. Scaling the exchange constants to get the same peak temperature shows that the susceptibilities for the square lattice and linear chain limits have similar magnitudes near the peak. Maximum deviation arises near the triangular-lattice limit, where frustration leads to much smaller susceptibility and with a flatter temperature dependence. We compare our results to the inorganic materials Cs2CuCl4 and Cs2CuBr4 and to a number of organic molecular crystals. We find that the former (Cs2CuCl4 and Cs2CuBr4) are weakly frustrated and their exchange parameters determined through the temperature dependence of the susceptibility are in agreement with neutron-scattering measurements. In contrast, the organic materials considered are strongly frustrated with exchange parameters near the isotropic triangular-lattice limit.

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The Coefficient of Variance (mean standard deviation/mean Response time) is a measure of response time variability that corrects for differences in mean Response time (RT) (Segalowitz & Segalowitz, 1993). A positive correlation between decreasing mean RTs and CVs (rCV-RT) has been proposed as an indicator of L2 automaticity and more generally as an index of processing efficiency. The current study evaluates this claim by examining lexical decision performance by individuals from three levels of English proficiency (Intermediate ESL, Advanced ESL and L1 controls) on stimuli from four levels of item familiarity, as defined by frequency of occurrence. A three-phase model of skill development defined by changing rCV-RT.values was tested. Results showed that RTs and CVs systematically decreased as a function of increasing proficiency and frequency levels, with the rCV-RT serving as a stable indicator of individual differences in lexical decision performance. The rCV-RT and automaticity/restructuring account is discussed in light of the findings. The CV is also evaluated as a more general quantitative index of processing efficiency in the L2.

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There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

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MCM-41 materials of six different pore diameters were prepared and characterized using X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, helium pycnometry, small-angle neutron scattering, and gas adsorption (argon at 77.4 and 87.4 K, nitrogen and oxygen at 77.4 K, and carbon dioxide at 194.6 K). A recent molecular continuum model of the authors, previously used for adsorption of nitrogen at 77.4 K, was applied here for adsorption of argon, oxygen, and carbon dioxide. While model predictions of single-pore adsorption isotherms for argon and oxygen are in satisfactory agreement with experimental data, significant deviation was found for carbon dioxide, most likely due to its high quadrupole moment. Predictions of critical pore diameter, below which reversible condensation occurs: were possible by the model and found to be consistent with experimental estimates, for the adsorption of the various gases. On the other hand, existing models such as the Barrett-Joyner-Halenda (BJH), Saito-Foley, and Dubinin-Astakhov models were found to be inadequate, either predicting an incorrect pore diameter or not correlating the isotherms adequately. The wall structure of MCM-41 appears to be close to that of amorphous silica, as inferred from our skeletal density measurements.

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Mycophenolic acid is an immunosuppressant administered as a bioavailable ester, mycophenolate mofetil. The pharmacokinetics of mycophenolic acid have been reported to be variable. Accurate measurement of concentrations of this drug could be important to adjust doses. The aim of this study was to compare the enzyme-multiplied immunoassay technique (EMIT [Dade Behring; San Jose, CA, U.S.A.]) for mycophenolic acid with a high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) assay using samples collected from renal transplant recipients. The HPLC assay used solid phase extraction and a C18 stationary phase with ultraviolet (UV) detection (254 nm). The immunoassay required no manual sample preparation. Plasma samples (n = 102) from seven patients, collected at various times after a dose, were analyzed using both methods. Both assays fulfilled quality-control criteria. Higher concentrations were consistently measured in patient samples when using EMIT. The mean (+/- standard deviation [SD]) bias (EMIT-HPLC) was 1.88 +/- 0.86 mg/L. The differences in concentrations were higher in the middle of a dosage interval, suggesting that a metabolite might have been responsible for overestimation. Measurement of glucuronide concentrations by HPLC demonstrated only a weak correlation between assay differences and glucuronide concentrations. If the crossreacting substance is active, EMIT could provide a superior measure of immunosuppression; if inactive, further work is needed to improve antibody specificity. In conclusion, it was found that EMIT overestimates the concentration of mycophenolic acid in plasma samples from renal transplant recipients compared with HPLC analysis.

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An order of magnitude sensitivity gain is described for using quasar spectra to investigate possible time or space variation in the fine structure constant alpha. Applied to a sample of 30 absorption systems, spanning redshifts 0.5 < z < 1.6, we derive limits on variations in alpha over a wide range of epochs. For the whole sample, Delta alpha/alpha = (-1.1 +/- 0.4) x 10(-5). This deviation is dominated by measurements at z > 1, where Delta alpha/alpha = (-1.9 +/- 0.5) x 10(-5). For z < 1, Delta alpha/alpha = (-0.2 +/- 0.4) x 10(-5). While this is consistent with a time-varying alpha, further work is required to explore possible systematic errors in the data, although careful searches have so far revealed none.

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Multiple sampling is widely used in vadose zone percolation experiments to investigate the extent in which soil structure heterogeneities influence the spatial and temporal distributions of water and solutes. In this note, a simple, robust, mathematical model, based on the beta-statistical distribution, is proposed as a method of quantifying the magnitude of heterogeneity in such experiments. The model relies on fitting two parameters, alpha and zeta to the cumulative elution curves generated in multiple-sample percolation experiments. The model does not require knowledge of the soil structure. A homogeneous or uniform distribution of a solute and/or soil-water is indicated by alpha = zeta = 1, Using these parameters, a heterogeneity index (HI) is defined as root 3 times the ratio of the standard deviation and mean. Uniform or homogeneous flow of water or solutes is indicated by HI = 1 and heterogeneity is indicated by HI > 1. A large value for this index may indicate preferential flow. The heterogeneity index relies only on knowledge of the elution curves generated from multiple sample percolation experiments and is, therefore, easily calculated. The index may also be used to describe and compare the differences in solute and soil-water percolation from different experiments. The use of this index is discussed for several different leaching experiments. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.