Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Understanding the academic environments : from field study to design

Ethnographic methods have been widely used for requirements elicitation purposes in systems design, especially when the focus is on understanding users? social, cultural and political contexts. Designing an on-line search engine for peer-reviewed papers could be a challenge considering the diversity of its end users coming from different educational and professional disciplines. This poster describes our exploration of academic research environments based on different in situ methods such as contextual interviews, diary-keeping, job-shadowing, etc. The data generated from these methods is analysed using a qualitative data analysis software and subsequently is used for developing personas that could be used as a requirements specification tool.

Engineering social awareness in work environments

A growing interest is seen for designing intelligent environments that support personally meaningful, sociable and rich everyday experiences. In this paper we describe an intelligent, large screen display called Panorama that is aimed at supporting and enhancing social awareness within an academic work environment. Panorama is not intended to provide instrumental or other productivity related information. Rather, the goal of Panorama is to enhance social awareness by providing interpersonal and rich information related to co-workers and their everyday interactions in the department. A two-phase assessment of Panorama showed to promote curiosity and interest in exploring different activities in the environment.

Being social @ work: designing for playfully mediated social awareness in work environments

Awareness within work environments should not be seen limited to important work-related information, activities and relationships. Mediating somewhat casual and engaging encounters related to non-work issues could also lead to meaningful and pleasurable experiences. This paper explores a design approach to support playfully mediated social awareness within an academic environment. Using ethnographic exploration and understanding the current and aspired practices, we provide details of two broad (and some times overlapping) categories of interaction for supporting and enhancing playfully mediated social awareness amongst staff members: 1) Self-Reflections and 2) Casual Encounters. We implement these two categories of interaction in an intelligent, asynchronous, large screen display called Panorama, for the staff room of our computer science department. Panorama attempts to mediate non-critical, non-work related information about the staff-members in an engaging manner to enhance social awareness within the department. We particularly emphasize on the soft design issues like reflections, belonging, care, pleasure and playfulness utilized in our design approach. The result of a two-phase assessment study suggests that our conceptualization of social awareness and the Panorama application has the potential to be easily incorporated into our academic environment.

Design-led innovation : Overcoming challenges to designing competitiveness to succeed in high cost environments

This chapter focuses on demonstrating the role of Design-Led Innovation (DLI) as an enabler for the success of Small to Medium Enterprises (SMEs) within high growth environments. This chapter is targeted toward businesses that may have been exposed to the concept of design previously at a product level and now seek to better understand its value through implementation at a strategic level offering. The decision to engage in the DLI process is made by firms who want to remain competitive as they struggle to compete in high cost environments, such as the state of the Australian economy at present. The results presented in this chapter outline the challenges in the adoption of the DLI process and the implications it can have. An understanding of the value of DLI in practice—as an enabler of business transformation in Australia—is of benefit to government and the broader design community.

Multiple map hypotheses for planning and navigating in non-stationary environments

This paper presents a method to enable a mobile robot working in non-stationary environments to plan its path and localize within multiple map hypotheses simultaneously. The maps are generated using a long-term and short-term memory mechanism that ensures only persistent configurations in the environment are selected to create the maps. In order to evaluate the proposed method, experimentation is conducted in an office environment. Compared to navigation systems that use only one map, our system produces superior path planning and navigation in a non-stationary environment where paths can be blocked periodically, a common scenario which poses significant challenges for typical planners.

A transcriptomic analysis of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) in response to salinity adaptation: De novo assembly, gene annotation and marker discovery

The striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) culture industry in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam has developed rapidly over the past decade. The culture industry now however, faces some significant challenges, especially related to climate change impacts notably from predicted extensive saltwater intrusion into many low topographical coastal provinces across the Mekong Delta. This problem highlights a need for development of culture stocks that can tolerate more saline culture environments as a response to expansion of saline water-intruded land. While a traditional artificial selection program can potentially address this need, understanding the genomic basis of salinity tolerance can assist development of more productive culture lines. The current study applied a transcriptomic approach using Ion PGM technology to generate expressed sequence tag (EST) resources from the intestine and swim bladder from striped catfish reared at a salinity level of 9 ppt which showed best growth performance. Total sequence data generated was 467.8 Mbp, consisting of 4,116,424 reads with an average length of 112 bp. De novo assembly was employed that generated 51,188 contigs, and allowed identification of 16,116 putative genes based on the GenBank non-redundant database. GO annotation, KEGG pathway mapping, and functional annotation of the EST sequences recovered with a wide diversity of biological functions and processes. In addition, more than 11,600 simple sequence repeats were also detected. This is the first comprehensive analysis of a striped catfish transcriptome, and provides a valuable genomic resource for future selective breeding programs and functional or evolutionary studies of genes that influence salinity tolerance in this important culture species.

Wheat breeding nurseries, target environments, and indirect selection for grain yield

Use of appropriate nursery environments will maximize gain from selection for yield of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the target population of environments of a breeding program. The objective of this study was to investigate how well-irrigated (low-stress) nursery environments predict yield of lines in target environments that varied in degree of water limitation. Fifteen lines were sampled from the preliminary yield evaluation stage of the Queensland wheat breeding program and tested in 26 trials under on-farm conditions (Target Environments) across nine years (1985 to 1993) and also in 27 trials conducted at three research stations (Nursery Environments) in three years (1987 to 1989). The nursery environments were structured to impose different levels of water and nitrogen (N) limitation, whereas the target environments represented a random sample of on-farm conditions from the target population of environments. Indirect selection and pattern analysis methods were used to investigate selection for yield in the nursery environments and gain from selection in the target environments. Yield under low-stress nursery conditions was an effective predictor of yield under similar low-stress target environments (r = 0.89, P < 0.01). However, the value of the low-stress nursery as a predictor of yield in the water-limited target environments decreased with increasing water stress (moderate stress r = 0.53, P < 0.05, to r = 0.38, P > 0.05; severe stress r = -0.08, P > 0.05). Yield in the stress nurseries was a poor predictor of yield in the target environments. Until there is a clear understanding of the physiological-genetic basis of variation for adaptation of wheat to the water-limited environments in Queensland, yield improvement can best be achieved by selection for a combination of yield potential in an irrigated low-stress nursery and yield in on-farm trials that sample the range of water-limited environments of the target population of environments.

A broad-scale analysis of links between coastal fisheries production and mangrove extent : a case-study for northeastern Australia

The paradigm that mangroves are critical for sustaining production in coastal fisheries is widely accepted, but empirical evidence has been tenuous. This study showed that links between mangrove extent and coastal fisheries production could be detected for some species at a broad regional scale (1000s of kilometres) on the east coast of Queensland, Australia. The relationships between catch-per-unit-effort for different commercially caught species in four fisheries (trawl, line, net and pot fisheries) and mangrove characteristics, estimated from Landsat images were examined using multiple regression analyses. The species were categorised into three groups based on information on their life history characteristics, namely mangrove-related species (banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis, mud crabs Scylla serrata and barramundi Lates calcarifer), estuarine species (tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus, blue swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus and blue threadfin Eleutheronema tetradactylum) and offshore species (coral trout Plectropomus spp.). For the mangrove-related species, mangrove characteristics such as area and perimeter accounted for most of the variation in the model; for the non-mangrove estuarine species, latitude was the dominant parameter but some mangrove characteristics (e.g. mangrove perimeter) also made significant contributions to the models. In contrast, for the offshore species, latitude was the dominant variable, with no contribution from mangrove characteristics. This study also identified that finer scale spatial data for the fisheries, to enable catch information to be attributed to a particular catchment, would help to improve our understanding of relationships between mangroves and fisheries production.

Analysis of the needs of the East Coast cluster regional natural resource management bodies in relation to planning for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation for Natural Resource Management (NRM) in East Coast Australia Project aims to foster and support an effective “community of practice” for climate change adaptation within the East Coast Cluster NRM regions that will increase the capacity for adaptation to climate change through enhancements in knowledge and skills and through the establishment of long‐term collaborations. It is being delivered by six consortium research partners: * The University of Queensland (project lead) * Griffith University * University of the Sunshine Coast * CSIRO * New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage * Queensland Department of Science, IT, Innovation and the Arts (Queensland Herbarium). The project relates to the East Coast Cluster, comprising the six coastal NRM regions and regional bodies between Rockhampton and Sydney: * Fitzroy Basin Association (FBA) * Burnett‐Mary Regional Group (BMRG) * SEQ Catchments (SEQC) * Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) (NRCMA) * Hunter‐Central Rivers CMA (HCRCMA) * Hawkesbury Nepean CMA (HNCMA). The aims of this report are to summarise the needs of the regional bodies in relation to NRM planning for climate change adaptation, and provide a basis for developing the detailed work plan for the research consortium. Two primary methods were used to identify the needs of the regional bodies: (1) document analysis of the existing NRM/ Catchment Action Plans (CAPs) and applications by the regional bodies for funding under Stream 1 of the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund, and; (2) a needs analysis workshop, held in May 2013 involving representatives from the research consortium partners and the regional bodies. The East Coast Cluster includes five of the ten largest significant urban areas in Australia, world heritage listed natural environments, significant agriculture, mining and extensive grazing. The three NSW CMAs have recently completed strategic level CAPs, with implementation plans to be finalised in 2014/2015. SEQC and FBA are beginning a review of their existing NRM Plans, to be completed in 2014 and 2015 respectively; while BMRG is aiming to produce a NRM and Climate Variability Action Strategy. The regional bodies will receive funding from the Australian Government through the Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund (NRM Fund) to improve regional planning for climate change and help guide the location of carbon and biodiversity activities, including wildlife corridors. The bulk of the funding will be available for activities in 2013/2014, with smaller amounts available in subsequent years. Most regional bodies aim to have a large proportion of the planning work complete by the end of 2014. In addition, NSW CMAs are undergoing major structural change and will be incorporated into semi‐autonomous statutory Local Land Services bodies from 2014. Boundaries will align with local government boundaries and there will be significant change in staff and structures. The regional bodies in the cluster have a varying degree of climate knowledge. All plans recognise climate change as a key driver of change, but there are few specific actions or targets addressing climate change. Regional bodies also have varying capacity to analyse large volumes of spatial or modelling data. Due to the complex nature of natural resource management, all regional bodies work with key stakeholders (e.g. local government, industry groups, and community groups) to deliver NRM outcomes. Regional bodies therefore require project outputs that can be used directly in stakeholder engagement activities, and are likely to require some form of capacity building associated with each of the outputs to maximise uptake. Some of the immediate needs of the regional bodies are a summary of information or tools that are able to be used immediately; and a summary of the key outputs and milestone dates for the project, to facilitate alignment of planning activities with research outputs. A project framework is useful to show the linkages between research elements and the relevance of the research to the adaptive management cycle for NRM planning in which the regional bodies are engaged. A draft framework is proposed to stimulate and promote discussion on research elements and linkages; this will be refined during and following the development of the detailed project work plan. The regional bodies strongly emphasised the need to incorporate a shift to a systems based resilience approach to NRM planning, and that approach is included in the framework. The regional bodies identified that information on climate projections would be most useful at regional and subregional scale, to feed into scenario planning and impact analysis. Outputs should be ‘engagement ready’ and there is a need for capacity building to enable regional bodies to understand and use the projections in stakeholder engagement. There was interest in understanding the impacts of climate change projections on ecosystems (e.g. ecosystem shift), and the consequent impacts on the production of ecosystem services. It was emphasised that any modelling should be able to be used by the regional bodies with their stakeholders to allow for community input (i.e. no black box models). The online regrowth benefits tool was of great interest to the regional bodies, as spatial mapping of carbon farming opportunities would be relevant to their funding requirements. The NSW CMAs identified an interest in development of the tool for NSW vegetation types. Needs relating to socio‐economic information included understanding the socio‐economic determinants of carbon farming uptake and managing community expectations. A need was also identified to understand the vulnerability of industry groups as well as community to climate change impacts, and in particular understanding how changes in the flow of ecosystem services would interact with the vulnerability of these groups to impact on the linked ecologicalsocio‐economic system. Responses to disasters (particularly flooding and storm surge) and recovery responses were also identified as being of interest. An ecosystem services framework was highlighted as a useful approach to synthesising biophysical and socioeconomic information in the context of a systems based, resilience approach to NRM planning. A need was identified to develop processes to move towards such an approach to NRM planning from the current asset management approach. Examples of best practice in incorporating climate science into planning, using scenarios for stakeholder engagement in planning and processes for institutionalising learning were also identified as cross‐cutting needs. The over‐arching theme identified was the need for capacity building for the NRM bodies to best use the information available at any point in time. To this end a planners working group has been established to support the building of a network of informed and articulate NRM agents with knowledge of current climate science and capacity to use current tools to engage stakeholders in NRM planning for climate change adaptation. The planners working group would form the core group of the community of practice, with the broader group of stakeholders participating when activities aligned with their interests. In this way, it is anticipated that the Project will contribute to building capacity within the wider community to effectively plan for climate change adaptation.

Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Extreme water level exceedance probabilities around Australia

The potential impacts of extreme water level events on our coasts are increasing as populations grow and sea levels rise. To better prepare for the future, coastal engineers and managers need accurate estimates of average exceedance probabilities for extreme water levels. In this paper, we estimate present day probabilities of extreme water levels around the entire coastline of Australia. Tides and storm surges generated by extra-tropical storms were included by creating a 61-year (1949-2009) hindcast of water levels using a high resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model driven with meteorological data from a global reanalysis. Tropical cyclone-induced surges were included through numerical modelling of a database of synthetic tropical cyclones equivalent to 10,000 years of cyclone activity around Australia. Predicted water level data was analysed using extreme value theory to construct return period curves for both the water level hindcast and synthetic tropical cyclone modelling. These return period curves were then combined by taking the highest water level at each return period.

Road infrastructure vulnerability to groundwater table variation due to sea level rise

This study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of coastal road infrastructures due to climate change induced sea level rise and extreme weather conditions through the estimation of road subgrade strength reduction as a result of changes in soil moisture content. The study area located in the Gold Coast, Australia highlighted that the risk is significant. In wet seasons or areas with wet condition, the groundwater table is already high, so even a small change in the groundwater table can raise the risk of inundation; particularly, in areas with existing shallow groundwater. The predicted risk of a high groundwater table on road infrastructure is a long-term hazard. Therefore, there is time to undertake some management plans to decrease the possible risks, for instance, some deep root plants could be planted along the roads with a high level of risk, to decrease the groundwater table elevation.

Braving a New World : Design Interventions for Changing Climates. Papers from the Subtropical Cities 2013 Fall Conference of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture (ACSA)

We no longer have the luxury of time as the effects of climate change are being felt, according to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, on every continent and in every ocean. More than 50% of the population of the United States and 85% of Australians live in coastal regions. The number of people living in the world’s coastal regions is expected to increase along with the need to improve capacity to mitigate hazards , and manage the multiple risks that have been identified by the scientific community. Under the auspices of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture (ACSA) design academics and practitioners from the Americas, Asia, and Australia met in Fort Lauderdale, Florida for the fourth Subtropical Cities international conference to share outcomes of research and new pedagogies to address the critical transformation of the physical environments and infrastructures of the world’s vulnerable coastal communities. The theme of Subtropical Cities, adopted by the ACSA for its Fall 2014 Conference, is not confined entirely to a latitudinal or climatic frame of reference. The paper and project presentations addressed a range of theoretical, practice-led, and education-oriented research topics in architecture and urban design related to the subtropics, with emphasis on urban and coastal regions. More than half the papers originate from universities and practices in coastal regions. Threads emerged from a tapestry of localized investigations to reveal a more global understanding about possible futures we are designing for current and future generations. The one hundred-plus conference delegates and presenters represented 33 universities and institutions from across the United States, Mexico, Canada, Australia, the Middle East, Peru and China. Case studies from India, Morocco, Tahiti, Indonesia, Jordan, and Cambodia were also presented, expanding the global knowledge base. Co-authored submissions presented new directions for architecture and design, with a resounding theme of collaboration across diverse disciplines. The ability to deal with abstraction and complexity, and the capacity to develop synthesis and frameworks for defining problem boundaries can be considered key attributes of architectural thinking. Such a unique set of abilities can forge collaboration with different professional disciplines to achieve extraordinary outcomes. As the broad range of papers presented at this conference suggest, existing architectural and urban typologies and practices are increasingly considered part of the cause and not the solution to adapting to climate change and sea level rise. Design responses and the actions needed to generate new and unfamiliar forms of urbanism and infrastructure for defense, adaptation, and retreat in subtropical urban regions are being actively explored in academic design studios and research projects around the world. Many presentations propose provocative and experimental strategies as global climate moves beyond our “comfort zone”. The ideas presented at the Subtropical Cities conference are timely as options for low-energy passive climatic design are becoming increasingly limited in the context of changing climate. At the same time, ways of reducing or obsoleting energy intensive mechanical systems in densely populated urban centres present additional challenges for designers and communities as a whole. The conference was marked by a common theme of trans-disciplinary research, where design integration with emerging technologies resonate with a reaffirmation of the centrality of design thinking, expanding the scope of the traditional architecture studio pedagogy to integrate knowledge from other disciplines and the participation of diverse communities.

An adaptive spherical view representation for navigation in changing environments

Real-world environments such as houses and offices change over time, meaning that a mobile robot’s map will become out of date. In previous work we introduced a method to update the reference views in a topological map so that a mobile robot could continue to localize itself in a changing environment using omni-directional vision. In this work we extend this longterm updating mechanism to incorporate a spherical metric representation of the observed visual features for each node in the topological map. Using multi-view geometry we are then able to estimate the heading of the robot, in order to enable navigation between the nodes of the map, and to simultaneously adapt the spherical view representation in response to environmental changes. The results demonstrate the persistent performance of the proposed system in a long-term experiment.