Incomplete information games of conflict and collective action

My thesis consists of three essays that investigate strategic interactions between individuals engaging in risky collective action in uncertain environments. The first essay analyzes a broad class of incomplete information coordination games with a wide range of applications in economics and politics. The second essay draws from the general model developed in the first essay to study decisions by individuals of whether to engage in protest/revolution/coup/strike. The final essay explicitly integrates state response to the analysis. The first essay, Coordination Games with Strategic Delegation of Pivotality, exhaustively analyzes a class of binary action, two-player coordination games in which players receive stochastic payoffs only if both players take a ``stochastic-coordination action''. Players receive conditionally-independent noisy private signals about the normally distributed stochastic payoffs. With this structure, each player can exploit the information contained in the other player's action only when he takes the “pivotalizing action”. This feature has two consequences: (1) When the fear of miscoordination is not too large, in order to utilize the other player's information, each player takes the “pivotalizing action” more often than he would based solely on his private information, and (2) best responses feature both strategic complementarities and strategic substitutes, implying that the game is not supermodular nor a typical global game. This class of games has applications in a wide range of economic and political phenomena, including war and peace, protest/revolution/coup/ strike, interest groups lobbying, international trade, and adoption of a new technology. My second essay, Collective Action with Uncertain Payoffs, studies the decision problem of citizens who must decide whether to submit to the status quo or mount a revolution. If they coordinate, they can overthrow the status quo. Otherwise, the status quo is preserved and participants in a failed revolution are punished. Citizens face two types of uncertainty. (a) non-strategic: they are uncertain about the relative payoffs of the status quo and revolution, (b) strategic: they are uncertain about each other's assessments of the relative payoff. I draw on the existing literature and historical evidence to argue that the uncertainty in the payoffs of status quo and revolution is intrinsic in politics. Several counter-intuitive findings emerge: (1) Better communication between citizens can lower the likelihood of revolution. In fact, when the punishment for failed protest is not too harsh and citizens' private knowledge is accurate, then further communication reduces incentives to revolt. (2) Increasing strategic uncertainty can increase the likelihood of revolution attempts, and even the likelihood of successful revolution. In particular, revolt may be more likely when citizens privately obtain information than when they receive information from a common media source. (3) Two dilemmas arise concerning the intensity and frequency of punishment (repression), and the frequency of protest. Punishment Dilemma 1: harsher punishments may increase the probability that punishment is materialized. That is, as the state increases the punishment for dissent, it might also have to punish more dissidents. It is only when the punishment is sufficiently harsh, that harsher punishment reduces the frequency of its application. Punishment Dilemma 1 leads to Punishment Dilemma 2: the frequencies of repression and protest can be positively or negatively correlated depending on the intensity of repression. My third essay, The Repression Puzzle, investigates the relationship between the intensity of grievances and the likelihood of repression. First, I make the observation that the occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I then propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents' contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thin-plate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone.

Graphic satire and the rise and fall of the First British Empire: political prints from the Seven Years' War to the Treaty of Paris, c. 1756-1783

This thesis examines the early stages of the transformation of emblematic political prints into political caricature from the beginning of the Seven Years' War (1756) to the Treaty of Paris, which ended the American Revolutionary War (1783). Both contextual and iconographical issues are investigated in relation to the debates occasioned by Britain's imperial project, which marked a period of dramatic expansion during the Seven Years' War, and ended with the loss of the American colonies, consequently framing this thesis as a study of political prints during the rise and fall of the so-called 'First British Empire'. Previous studies of eighteenth-century political prints have largely ignored the complex and lengthy evolutionary process by which the emblematic mode amalgamated with caricatural representation, and have consequently concluded that political prints excluded emblems entirely by the end of the 1770s. However, this study emphasizes the significance of the Wilkite movement for the promotion and preservation of emblems, and investigates how pictorial political argument was perceived and received in eighteenth-century British society, arguing that wider tastes and opinions regarding the utilization of political prints gradually shifted to accept both modes of representation. Moreover, the marketplace, legal status, topicality, and manufacturing methods of political prints are analyzed in terms of understanding the precarious nature of their consumption and those that endeavoured to engage in political printmaking. The evolution, establishment, and subsequent appropriation of pictorial tropes is discussed from the early modern period to the beginning of the so-called Golden Age of caricature, while tracing the adaptation of representational models in American colonial prints that employed emblems already entrenched in British pictorial political debate. Political prints from the two largest print collections, the British Museum and the Lewis Walpole Library at Yale are consulted, along with a number of eighteenth-century newspapers and periodicals, to develop the earlier research by M. Dorothy George, Charles Press, Herbert Atherton, Diana Donald, Amelia Rauser, and Eirwen Nicholson.

The official roster of South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines in the World War, 1917-18, volume 1, part 1

This is the Official Roster of the South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines who served in the World War and contains the names and records, briefly compiled, of the men and women from this state who responded to the call of the President when the United States entered the great conflict. This record gives in as compact form as practicable the following : name; serial number; residence; branch of service; date and place of entry into service; place of birth and age; organizations served in, with dates of assignments and transfers; grades with dates of appointment; engagements, if any; wound received in action, with degree and date; if killed in action or died while in service; person notified, relationship and address; oversea service; date of discharge; citations.

The official roster of South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines in the World War, 1917-18, volume 1, part 2

This is the Official Roster of the South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines who served in the World War and contains the names and records, briefly compiled, of the men and women from this state who responded to the call of the President when the United States entered the great conflict. This record gives in as compact form as practicable the following : name; serial number; residence; branch of service; date and place of entry into service; place of birth and age; organizations served in, with dates of assignments and transfers; grades with dates of appointment; engagements, if any; wound received in action, with degree and date; if killed in action or died while in service; person notified, relationship and address; oversea service; date of discharge; citations.

The official roster of South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines in the World War, 1917-18, volume 1, part 3

This is the Official Roster of the South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines who served in the World War and contains the names and records, briefly compiled, of the men and women from this state who responded to the call of the President when the United States entered the great conflict. This record gives in as compact form as practicable the following : name; serial number; residence; branch of service; date and place of entry into service; place of birth and age; organizations served in, with dates of assignments and transfers; grades with dates of appointment; engagements, if any; wound received in action, with degree and date; if killed in action or died while in service; person notified, relationship and address; oversea service; date of discharge; citations.

The official roster of South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines in the World War, 1917-18, volume 2, part 1

This is the Official Roster of the South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines who served in the World War and contains the names and records, briefly compiled, of the men and women from this state who responded to the call of the President when the United States entered the great conflict. This record gives in as compact form as practicable the following : name; serial number; residence; branch of service; date and place of entry into service; place of birth and age; organizations served in, with dates of assignments and transfers; grades with dates of appointment; engagements, if any; wound received in action, with degree and date; if killed in action or died while in service; person notified, relationship and address; oversea service; date of discharge; citations.

The official roster of South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines in the World War, 1917-18, volume 2, part 2

This is the Official Roster of the South Carolina soldiers, sailors and marines who served in the World War and contains the names and records, briefly compiled, of the men and women from this state who responded to the call of the President when the United States entered the great conflict. This record gives in as compact form as practicable the following : name; serial number; residence; branch of service; date and place of entry into service; place of birth and age; organizations served in, with dates of assignments and transfers; grades with dates of appointment; engagements, if any; wound received in action, with degree and date; if killed in action or died while in service; person notified, relationship and address; oversea service; date of discharge; citations.

Victorian letter writing and its representation in literature and painting: the case study of love letters

One of the main features of nineteenth-century fiction is the quasi-total disappearance of the epistolary novel that had had its heydays in the previous century. For this reason, some scholars have declared the “death” of the letter in literature after the transitional romantic period. However, Victorian novels overflow with letters that are embedded, quoted in part or described and commented on by narrators or characters. Even when its content is not revealed to the reader, the letter becomes a signifier loaded with meanings, also and particularly so, when it is burnt, torn, hidden, found or buried. The Postal Reform of 1839-40 caused the number of letters sent every year in Britain to grow from 75 to 410 million in only 14 years, and the mediatic campaign that supported it drew the attention of the population to the material aspects concerning this means of communication. Newspapers became more affordable too and they promoted a taste for sensationalism that often involved the “spectacularization” of private correspondence. Starting from an excursus on the history of the letter aimed at identifying the key aspects of the genre, this work deals with some real love correspondences from people belonging to different classes in the period from 1840 to the 1870s, to then analyse their fictional and pictorial counterparts. The general picture that emerges from this analysis is that of a Victorian society where letters were able to break down the boundaries between high and low forms of cultural expressions and where, more than ever, letters were present in people’s everyday lives as well as in the art and literature they enjoyed.

The Consequences Of Refractory Epilepsy And Its Treatment.

Seizures in some 30% to 40% of patients with epilepsy fail to respond to antiepileptic drugs or other treatments. While much has been made of the risks of new drug therapies, not enough attention has been given to the risks of uncontrolled and progressive epilepsy. This critical review summarizes known risks associated with refractory epilepsy, provides practical clinical recommendations, and indicates areas for future research. Eight international epilepsy experts from Europe, the United States, and South America met on May 4, 2013, to present, review, and discuss relevant concepts, data, and literature on the consequences of refractory epilepsy. While patients with refractory epilepsy represent the minority of the population with epilepsy, they require the overwhelming majority of time, effort, and focus from treating physicians. They also represent the greatest economic and psychosocial burdens. Diagnostic procedures and medical/surgical treatments are not without risks. Overlooked, however, is that these risks are usually smaller than the risks of long-term, uncontrolled seizures. Refractory epilepsy may be progressive, carrying risks of structural damage to the brain and nervous system, comorbidities (osteoporosis, fractures), and increased mortality (from suicide, accidents, sudden unexpected death in epilepsy, pneumonia, vascular disease), as well as psychological (depression, anxiety), educational, social (stigma, driving), and vocational consequences. Adding to this burden is neuropsychiatric impairment caused by underlying epileptogenic processes (essential comorbidities), which appears to be independent of the effects of ongoing seizures themselves. Tolerating persistent seizures or chronic medicinal adverse effects has risks and consequences that often outweigh risks of seemingly more aggressive treatments. Future research should focus not only on controlling seizures but also on preventing these consequences.

Universal exhibitions and the cinema: history and culture

The objective of this article is to examine the presence of cinema in World Fairs between the 1893 World`s Columbian Exposition in Chicago and 1939 (the New York World`s Fair). As an integral part of a visual culture constructed by these spaces to celebrate capitalism, the trajectory of cinema is identified with these world fairs due to its ability to entertain and, at the same time, to educate. Cinema was established as a means of mass communication during the First World War and afterwards would participate more actively in the symbolic disputes of a world about to enter the second global conflict. It would reach a broader public, becoming the main `showcase` in which nations projected virtues to be celebrated. The new striking visual spectacle assumed, within this context, greater emphasis through films idealized as true cinematographic monuments.

Evaluating an Agile Method for Planning and Controlling Innovative Projects

This article presents an extensive investigation carried out in two technology-based companies of the So Carlos technological pole in Brazil. Based on this multiple case study and literature review, a method, entitled hereafter IVPM2, applying agile project management (APM) principles was developed. After the method implementation, a qualitative evaluation was carried out by a document analysis and questionnaire application. This article shows that the application of this method at the companies under investigation evidenced the benefits of using simple, iterative, visual, and agile techniques to plan and control innovative product projects combined with traditional project management best practices, such as standardization.

Predicting glass-forming compositions in the Al-La and Al-La-Ni systems

In this work, a criterion considering the topological instability (lambda) and the differences in the electronegativity of the constituent elements (Delta e) was applied to the Al-La and Al-Ni-La systems in order to predict the best glass-forming compositions. The results were compared with literature data and with our own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The alloy described in the literature as the best glass former in the Al-La system is located near the point with local maximum for the lambda.Delta e criterion. A good agreement was found between the predictions of the lambda.Delta e criterion and literature data in the Al-La-Ni system, with the region of the best glass-forming ability (GFA) and largest supercooled liquid region (Delta T(x)) coinciding with the best compositional region for amorphization indicated by the lambda.Delta e criterion. Four new glassy compositions were found in the Al-La-Ni system, with the best predicted composition presenting the best glass-forming ability observed so far for this system. Although the lambda.Delta e criterion needs further refinements for completely describe the glass-forming ability in the Al-La and Al-La-Ni systems, the results demonstrated that this criterion is a good tool to predict new glass-forming compositions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Education not war May Day 1968 Brisbane

Children on float during May Day march in Brisbane 1968. Banners say Education not war and Overseas for Peace Trade not war.

An everyday nostalgia: Memory and the fictions of belonging

In 1984, George Orwell presented the future as a dystopian vision, where everyday existence was governed and redefined by an oppressive regime. Winston Smith's daily duties at the Ministry of Truth involved the invention, rewriting and erasing of fragments of history as a means of perpetuating contentment, uniformity and control. History, as Orwell described it in the novel 'was a palimpsest, scraped clean and reinscribed exactly as often as was necessary.' More that a quarter of a century after the publication of 1984, Michel Foucault discussed the cinematic representation and misrepresentation of French history and identity in terms of what he called the manipulation of 'popular memory'. In what was tantamount to a diluted version of Orwell's palimpsestic histories, Foucault stated that 'people are not shown what they were, but what they must remember having been.' This paper will investigate notions of memory, identity and the everyday through a discussion of the community of Celebration in Florida. Conceived in the 1990s, Celebration was designed around a fictionalised representation of pre 1940s small town America, using nostalgia for a mythologised past to create a sense of comfort, community and conformity among its residents. Adapting issues raised by Orwell, Foucault and Baudrillard, this paper will discuss the way in which architecture, like film and literature, can participate in what Foucault discussed as the manipulation of popular memory, inducing and exploiting a nostalgia for an everyday past that that never really existed.

Kosovo and international society

This book explains the international engagement with the Kosovo conflict from the dissolution of Yugoslavia to Operation Allied Force. It shows how Kosovo was deliberately excluded from the search for peace in Yugoslavia before going on to demonstrate how a shaky international consensus was forged to support air strikes in 1999. In doing so, it exposes many of the myths and conspiracy theories that have developed about the war and explains the dilemmas facing actors in this unfolding drama.