Predicting bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies from historical financial statements

This master’s thesis studies the probability of bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies as a part of credit risk assessment. The main idea of this thesis is to build and test bankruptcy prediction models for Finnish limited liability companies that can be utilized in credit decision making. The data used in this thesis consists of historical financial statements from 2112 Finnish limited liability companies, half of which have filed for bankruptcy. A total of four models are developed, two with logistic regression and two with multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA). The time horizon of the models varies from 1 to 2 years prior to the bankruptcy, and 14 different financial variables are used in the model formation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models ranges between 81.7% and 88.9%, and the best prediction accuracy is achieved with the one year prior the bankruptcy logistic regression model. However the difference between the best logistic model and the best MDA model is minimal. Overall based on the results of this thesis it can be concluded that predicting bankruptcy is possible to some extent, but naturally the results are not perfect.

Temperature, air pollution, and mortality from myocardial infarction in São Paulo, Brazil

An increase in daily mortality from myocardial infarction has been observed in association with meteorological factors and air pollution in several cities in the world, mainly in the northern hemisphere. The objective of the present study was to analyze the independent effects of environmental variables on daily counts of death from myocardial infarction in a subtropical region in South America. We used the robust Poisson regression to investigate associations between weather (temperature, humidity and barometric pressure), air pollution (sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and inhalable particulate), and the daily death counts attributed to myocardial infarction in the city of São Paulo in Brazil, where 12,007 fatal events were observed from 1996 to 1998. The model was adjusted in a linear fashion for relative humidity and day-of-week, while nonparametric smoothing factors were used for seasonal trend and temperature. We found a significant association of daily temperature with deaths due to myocardial infarction (P < 0.001), with the lowest mortality being observed at temperatures between 21.6 and 22.6ºC. Relative humidity appeared to exert a protective effect. Sulfur dioxide concentrations correlated linearly with myocardial infarction deaths, increasing the number of fatal events by 3.4% (relative risk of 1.03; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.05) for each 10 µg/m³ increase. In conclusion, this study provides evidence of important associations between daily temperature and air pollution and mortality from myocardial infarction in a subtropical region, even after a comprehensive control for confounding factors.

Prevalence of retinopathy in Caucasian type 2 diabetic patients from the South of Brazil and relationship with clinical and metabolic factors

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a sight-threatening chronic complication of diabetes mellitus and is the leading cause of acquired blindness in adults. In this cross-sectional study, we investigated the prevalence of and the factors associated with DR in an analysis of 210 consecutive and unrelated Brazilian Caucasians with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Retinopathy was evaluated by ophthalmoscopy and/or biomicroscopy through dilated pupils. The relationship between clinical and metabolic variables and the presence of DR was assessed by logistic regression analysis. DR was detected in 99 of the 210 patients (47%). In the univariate logistic regression analyses, male sex, duration of diabetes, body mass index, glycated hemoglobin, C-peptide, LDL cholesterol, smoking, and albumin excretion rate were found to be associated with the presence of DR. However, the multiple logistic regression analysis showed that only duration of diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.09-1.22; P < 0.001), glycated hemoglobin (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.01-1.46; P = 0.047) and albumin excretion rate >100 µg/min (OR = 12.72, 95% CI = 3.89-41.56; P < 0.001) were independently associated with DR. Although DR was found to be frequent among Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients, its prevalence was within the range observed in other Caucasian populations. Our findings emphasize the need for good glycemic control in order to prevent or delay the onset of DR, since the most well-known risk factors for the development of this complication in type 2 diabetes mellitus, such as duration of diabetes, glycated hemoglobin and albumin excretion rate were independently related to DR.

The association of ACE gene D/I polymorphism with cardiovascular risk factors in a population from Rio de Janeiro

Our aim was to determine the frequencies of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) gene alleles D and I and any associations to cardiovascular risk factors in a population sample from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Eighty-four adults were selected consecutively during a 6-month period from a cohort subgroup of a previous large cross-sectional survey in Rio de Janeiro. Anthropometric data and blood pressure measurements, echocardiogram, albuminuria, glycemia, lipid profile, and ACE genotype and serum enzyme activity were determined. The frequency of the ACE*D and I alleles in the population under study, determined by PCR, was 0.59 and 0.41, respectively, and the frequencies of the DD, DI, and II genotypes were 0.33, 0.51, and 0.16, respectively. No association between hypertension and genotype was detected using the Kruskal-Wallis method. Mean plasma ACE activity (U/mL) in the DD (N = 28), DI (N = 45) and II (N = 13) groups was 43 (in males) and 52 (in females), 37 and 39, and 22 and 27, respectively; mean microalbuminuria (mg/dL) was 1.41 and 1.6, 0.85 and 0.9, and 0.6 and 0.63, respectively; mean HDL cholesterol (mg/dL) was 40 and 43, 37 and 45, and 41 and 49, respectively, and mean glucose (mg/dL) was 93 and 108, 107 and 98, and 85 and 124, respectively. A high level of ACE activity and albuminuria, and a low level of HDL cholesterol and glucose, were found to be associated with the DD genotype. Finally, the II genotype was found to be associated with variables related to glucose intolerance.

Prevalence and conditions associated with chronic pelvic pain in women from São Luís, Brazil

The objective of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of chronic pelvic pain in the community of São Luís, capital of the State of Maranhão, Northeastern Brazil, and to identify independent conditions associated with it. A cross-sectional study was conducted, including a sample of 1470 women older than 14 years predominantly served by the public health system. The interviews were held in the subject's home by trained interviewers not affiliated with the public health services of the municipality. The homes were visited at random according to the city map and the prevalence of the condition was estimated. To identify the associated conditions, the significant variables (P=0.10) were selected and entered in a multivariate analysis model. Data are reported as odds ratio and 95% confidence interval, with the level of significance set at 0.05. The prevalence of chronic pelvic pain was 19.0%. The independent conditions associated with this diagnosis were: dyspareunia (OR=3.94), premenopausal status (OR=2.95), depressive symptoms (OR=2.33), dysmenorrhea (OR=1.77), smoking (OR=1.72), irregular menstrual flow (OR=1.62), and irritative bladder symptoms (OR=1.90). The prevalence of chronic pelvic pain in Sao Luís is high and is associated with the conditions cited above. Guidelines based on prevention and/or early identification of risk factors may reduce the prevalence of chronic pelvic pain in São Luís, Brazil.

Psoriasis severity and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis function: results from the CALIPSO study

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease that significantly impacts life quality, being associated with stress and mental disorders. We investigated whether the activity of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis was associated with psoriasis severity, daily life stress and anxiety, and depressive symptoms. In this ancillary study, which was part of the CALIPSO (coronary artery calcium in psoriasis) study, saliva was collected from 102 patients with psoriasis immediately upon awakening, 30, and 60 min after awakening, at 2:00 pm and at bedtime (five time points) to determine salivary cortisol levels. We used Pearson's correlation coefficient to evaluate the association of clinical and psychopathological variables with HPA activity. We found a direct correlation between bedtime cortisol and psoriasis severity evaluated by the psoriasis area severity index (PASI; r=0.39, P<0.001). No correlations between other clinical and psychopathological variables or with other cortisol assessments were observed. The findings indicated that HPA dysfunction may be present in psoriasis, as bedtime cortisol was correlated with psoriasis severity. Our study is limited by the lack of a control group; therefore, we were not able to explore whether these cortisol values were different compared with a concurrent, healthy sample.

Determinants of capital expenditures: Evidence from oil and mining sectors in Russia

This master’s thesis investigates the significant macroeconomic and firm level determinants of CAPEX in Russian oil and mining sectors. It also studies the Russian oil and mining sectors, its development, characteristics and current situation. The panel data methodology was implemented to identify the determinants of CAPEX in Russian oil and mining sectors and to test derived hypotheses. The core sample consists of annual financial data of 45 publicly listed Russian oil and mining sector companies. The timeframe of the thesis research is a six year period from 2007 to 2013. The findings of the master’s thesis have shown that Gross Sales, Return On Assets, Free Cash Flow and Long Term Debt are firm level performance variables along with Russian GDP, Export, Urals and the Reserve Fund are macroeconomic variables that determine the magnitude of new capital expenditures reported by publicly listed Russian oil and mining sector companies. These results are not controversial to the previous research paper, indeed they confirm them. Furthermore, the findings from the emerging countries, such as Malaysia, India and Portugal, are analogous to Russia. The empirical research is edifying and novel. Findings from this master’s thesis are highly valuable for the scientific community, especially, for researchers who investigate the determinant of CAPEX in developing countries. Moreover, the results can be utilized as a cogent argument, when companies and investors are doing strategic decisions, considering the Russian oil and mining sectors.

Rheological behavior and color stability of anthocyanins from Merlot (Vitis vinifera L.) and Bordô (Vitis labrusca L.) grapes in a jam model system

Anthocyanins are the pigments responsible for the color of most red grapes and are easily degraded following various reaction mechanisms affected by oxygen, enzymes, pH, and temperature among other variables. In this study, a jam model system was developed using Merlot and Bordô grape extracts and polysaccharides (xanthan and locust bean gums) and different temperatures (45, 55 and 65 °C). The stability of the anthocyanin pigments and the rheological behavior of the jam model system were studied. For the determination of the stability, the half-life time and first-order reaction rate constants for the anthocyanin pigments were calculated. The rheological behavior was determined through the Power law model. The jam model system produced using a temperature of 45 °C showed the best results for the anthocyanin half-life time. The first-order reaction rate constants for the 45, 55, and 65 °C treatments were not significantly different among each other (p > 0.05). It was observed that with an increase in the jam model system temperature there was an increase in the index of consistency.

Process variables in the osmotic dehydration of sliced peaches

This paper evaluated the influence of temperature and concentration of the sucrose syrup on the pre-osmotic dehydration of peaches. Physical (colour and texture) and chemical variables (soluble solid content; total sugar, reducing and non-reducing sugar contents; and titratable acidity) were investigated, as well as the osmotic dehydration parameters (loss of weight and water; solids incorporation). An experimental central composite design was employed varying the temperature (from 30 to 50 ºC) and concentration (from 45 to 65 ºBrix) and maintaining the syrup to fruit ratio (4:1), process time (4 hours), and format (slices). The degree of acceptance was used in the sensory analysis evaluating the following characteristics: appearance, taste, texture, colour, and overall quality using a hedonic scale. The results were modelled using the Statistica program (v. 6.0) and the Response Surface Methodology. The mathematical models of the following dimensionless variations yielded significant (p < 0.05) and predictive results: soluble solids content, total and non-reducing sugar contents, titratable acidity, colour parameter L*, and water loss. The models of the attributes colour and appearance yielded significant (p < 0.10) but not predictive results. Temperature was the prevalent effect in the models. The process conditions in the range from 50 to 54.1 ºC and from 45 to 65 ºBrix led to greater water losses and better sensory performances.

Application of Doehlert experimental design in the optimization of experimental variables for the Pseudozyma sp. (CCMB 306) and Pseudozyma sp. (CCMB 300) cell lysis

This study aimed to verify the influence of pH and temperature on the lysis of yeast using experimental design. In this study, the enzymatic extract containing β-1,3-glucanase and chitinase, obtained from the micro-organism Moniliophthora perniciosa, was used. The experiment showed that the best conditions for lysis of Pseudozyma sp. (CCMB 306) and Pseudozyma sp. (CCMB 300) by lytic enzyme were pH 4.9 at 37 ºC and pH 3.9 at 26.7 ºC, respectively. The lytic enzyme may be used for obtaining various biotechnology products from yeast.

Artificial neural networks (ANN): prediction of sensory measurements from instrumental data

The objective of this study was to predict by means of Artificial Neural Network (ANN), multilayer perceptrons, the texture attributes of light cheesecurds perceived by trained judges based on instrumental texture measurements. Inputs to the network were the instrumental texture measurements of light cheesecurd (imitative and fundamental parameters). Output variables were the sensory attributes consistency and spreadability. Nine light cheesecurd formulations composed of different combinations of fat and water were evaluated. The measurements obtained by the instrumental and sensory analyses of these formulations constituted the data set used for training and validation of the network. Network training was performed using a back-propagation algorithm. The network architecture selected was composed of 8-3-9-2 neurons in its layers, which quickly and accurately predicted the sensory texture attributes studied, showing a high correlation between the predicted and experimental values for the validation data set and excellent generalization ability, with a validation RMSE of 0.0506.

Interdependence of Macroeconomics Variables, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility in Latin America

This thesis examines the interdependence of macroeconomic variables, stock market returns and stock market volatility in Latin America between 2000 and 2015. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru were chosen as the sample markets, while inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, oil and gold were chosen as the sample macroeconomic variables. Bivariate VAR (1) model was applied to examine the mean return spillovers between the variables, whereas GARCH (1, 1) – BEKK model was applied to capture the volatility spillovers. The sample was divided into two smaller sub-periods, where the first sub-period covers from 2000 to 2007, and the second sub-period covers from 2007 to 2015. The empirical results report significant shock transmissions and volatility spillovers between inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, gold, oil and the selected markets, which suggests interdependence between the variables.

Optimization of the extraction process of polyphenols from cashew apple agro-industrial residues

The goal of this study was to determine the chemical composition of cashew apples agro-industrial residue and optimize the process of polyphenols extraction in this residue. The extraction process conditions were defined using a 24-1 fractional factorial experimental design using acetone and methanol as solvents. The independent variables were: time (30 to 90 min), temperature (30 to 50 °C), solvent concentrations (50% to 90%), agitation speed (100 to 300 rpm); the dependent variables were: total phenolic content and DPPH scavenging capacity. The optimized process was carried out by applying the Central Composite Rotational Design (CCRD) considering the results obtained with the 24-1 fractional factorial experimental design. The residue presented bioactive compounds in its composition, with emphasis on the content of total phenolic compounds (1975.64 mg/ 100 g). The extraction process was not affected by methanol; however, acetone affected the amounts of extracted phytochemicals. Extracts with high levels of polyphenols and strong DPPH scavenging capacity (> 80%) were obtained using 55% acetone, 30 minutes, 30 °C, and 150 rpm. The results showed that cashew apple residue is a potential natural source of bioactive compounds with strong antioxidant capacity. These compounds could be used partially or totally to replace synthetic antioxidants.

Effects of orange winemaking variables on antioxidant activity and bioactive compounds

AbstractAscorbic acid, carotenoids and polyphenols stand out among the orange juice natural antioxidants. The winemaking process affects their bioavailability and bioactivity. Antioxidant activities (AA) were estimated in different process conditions to asses those properties. The AA and their correlation with ascorbic acid, total phenolics and carotenoids content were calculated. The variables and levels analyzed were: pasteurized and natural must (PJ and NJ), pH 3.5 and 4.0 and fermentation temperatures at 10°C and 20°C. Statistically significant differences (α=0.05) were found among bioactive compounds concentrations. Antioxidant compounds concentration was higher in raw material than in orange wine. Juice pasteurization caused the major losses while subsequent vinification affects them to a lesser extent. Highest antioxidants retention was measured in wines from JN fermented at pH 3.5 and 10 °C (JN-3.5-10) followed by wines from JP and fermented at the same conditions (JP-3.5-10). AA determined by DPPH showed a positive and close correlation with FRAP, while ABTS showed a low correlation with former assays. Juice pasteurization process and fermentation temperature influenced bioactive compound reduction which correlates with the AA variation.

Comparison of baseline data between chronic kidney disease patients starting hemodialysis who live near and far from the dialysis center

Introduction: The treatment offered to chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients before starting hemodialysis (HD) impacts prognosis. Objective: We seek differences among incident HD patients according to the distance between home and the dialysis center. Methods: We included 179 CKD patients undergoing HD. Patients were stratified in two groups: "living near the dialysis center" (patients whose hometown was in cities up to 100 km from the dialysis center) or as "living far from the dialysis center" (patients whose hometown was more than 100 km from the dialysis center). Socioeconomic status, laboratory results, awareness of CKD before starting HD, consultation with nephrologist before the first HD session, and type of vascular access when starting HD were compared between the two groups. Comparisons of continuous and categorical variables were performed using Student's t-test and the Chi-square test, respectively. Results: Ninety (50.3%) patients were classified as "living near the dialysis center" and 89 (49.7%) as "living far from the dialysis center". Patients living near the dialysis center were more likely to know about their condition of CKD than those living far from the dialysis center, respectively 46.6% versus 28.0% (p = 0.015). Although without statistical significance, patients living near the dialysis center had more frequent previous consultation with nephrologists (55.5% versus 42.6%; p = 0.116) and first HD by fistula (30.0% versus 19.1%; p = 0.128) than those living far from the dialysis center. Conclusion: There are potential advantages of CKD awareness, referral to nephrologists and starting HD through fistula among patients living near the dialysis center.