Sur les tests lisses d'ajustement dans le context des series chronologiques

La plupart des modèles en statistique classique repose sur une hypothèse sur la distribution des données ou sur une distribution sous-jacente aux données. La validité de cette hypothèse permet de faire de l’inférence, de construire des intervalles de confiance ou encore de tester la fiabilité du modèle. La problématique des tests d’ajustement vise à s’assurer de la conformité ou de la cohérence de l’hypothèse avec les données disponibles. Dans la présente thèse, nous proposons des tests d’ajustement à la loi normale dans le cadre des séries chronologiques univariées et vectorielles. Nous nous sommes limités à une classe de séries chronologiques linéaires, à savoir les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile (ARMA ou VARMA dans le cas vectoriel). Dans un premier temps, au cas univarié, nous proposons une généralisation du travail de Ducharme et Lafaye de Micheaux (2004) dans le cas où la moyenne est inconnue et estimée. Nous avons estimé les paramètres par une méthode rarement utilisée dans la littérature et pourtant asymptotiquement efficace. En effet, nous avons rigoureusement montré que l’estimateur proposé par Brockwell et Davis (1991, section 10.8) converge presque sûrement vers la vraie valeur inconnue du paramètre. De plus, nous fournissons une preuve rigoureuse de l’inversibilité de la matrice des variances et des covariances de la statistique de test à partir de certaines propriétés d’algèbre linéaire. Le résultat s’applique aussi au cas où la moyenne est supposée connue et égale à zéro. Enfin, nous proposons une méthode de sélection de la dimension de la famille d’alternatives de type AIC, et nous étudions les propriétés asymptotiques de cette méthode. L’outil proposé ici est basé sur une famille spécifique de polynômes orthogonaux, à savoir les polynômes de Legendre. Dans un second temps, dans le cas vectoriel, nous proposons un test d’ajustement pour les modèles autorégressifs à moyenne mobile avec une paramétrisation structurée. La paramétrisation structurée permet de réduire le nombre élevé de paramètres dans ces modèles ou encore de tenir compte de certaines contraintes particulières. Ce projet inclut le cas standard d’absence de paramétrisation. Le test que nous proposons s’applique à une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales. Nous illustrons cela dans le cas particulier des polynômes de Legendre et d’Hermite. Dans le cas particulier des polynômes d’Hermite, nous montrons que le test obtenu est invariant aux transformations affines et qu’il est en fait une généralisation de nombreux tests existants dans la littérature. Ce projet peut être vu comme une généralisation du premier dans trois directions, notamment le passage de l’univarié au multivarié ; le choix d’une famille quelconque de fonctions orthogonales ; et enfin la possibilité de spécifier des relations ou des contraintes dans la formulation VARMA. Nous avons procédé dans chacun des projets à une étude de simulation afin d’évaluer le niveau et la puissance des tests proposés ainsi que de les comparer aux tests existants. De plus des applications aux données réelles sont fournies. Nous avons appliqué les tests à la prévision de la température moyenne annuelle du globe terrestre (univarié), ainsi qu’aux données relatives au marché du travail canadien (bivarié). Ces travaux ont été exposés à plusieurs congrès (voir par exemple Tagne, Duchesne et Lafaye de Micheaux (2013a, 2013b, 2014) pour plus de détails). Un article basé sur le premier projet est également soumis dans une revue avec comité de lecture (Voir Duchesne, Lafaye de Micheaux et Tagne (2016)).

Validation of the ENSCO surrogate bogie vehicle FOIL test numbers: 92F028 through 92F031.

Federal Highway Administration, McLean, Va.

Utility of the Social Responsiveness Scale- Parent Report (SRS-Parent) as a Diagnostic Tool for Autism Identification

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The List of Social Situation Problems: Reliability and validity in an adolescent Spanish-speaking sample

The aim of this study was to analyze the psychometric properties of the Spanish translation of the List of Social Situation Problems (LSSP; S. H. Spence, 1980). The questionnaire was administered to a sample of 388 adolescents between the ages of 12 and 18. Exploratory factor analysis identified four factors: Social Anxiety, Adult Oppositional, Assertiveness, and Making Friends, which accounted for 26.64% of the variance. Internal consistency of the total scale was high (alpha = .86). Correlations between the LSSP and two self-report measures of social anxiety, the Questionnaire about Interpersonal Difficulties for Adolescents (r = .45) and the Social Phobia and Anxiety Inventory (r = .48), were statistically significant. A significant difference was found between LSSP total scores for adolescents with and without social anxiety (d = 1.14), supporting the construct validity of the scale.

A comparison of the Yale-Brown obsessive compulsive scale for "Heavy drinking" with a single item craving measure: Construct validity and clinical utility

The measurement of alcohol craving began with single-item scales. Multifactorial scales developed with the intention to capture more fully the phenomenon of craving. This study examines the construct validity of a multifactorial scale, the Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale for heavy drinking (Y-BOCS-hd). The study compares its clinical utility with a single item visual-analogue craving scale. The study includes 212 alcohol dependent subjects (127 males, 75 females) undertaking an outpatient treatment program between 1999-2001. Subjects completed the Y-BOCS-hd and a single item visual-analogue scale, in addition to alcohol consumption and dependence severity measures. The Y-BOCS-hd had strong construct validity. Both the visual-analogue alcohol craving scale and Y-BOCS-hd were weakly associated with pretreatment dependence severity. There was a significant association between pretreatment alcohol consumption and the visual-analogue craving scale. Neither craving measure was able to predict total program abstinence or days abstinent. The relationship between obsessive-compulsive behavior in alcohol dependence and craving remains unclear.

The impact of neurodynamic testing on the perception of experimentally induced muscle pain

Neurodynamic tests such as the straight leg raising (SLR) and slump test are frequently used for assessment of mechanosensitivity of neural tissues. However, there is ongoing debate in the literature regarding the contributions of neural and non-neural tissues to the elicited symptoms because many structures are affected by these tests. Sensitizing manoeuvres are limb or spinal movements added to neurodynamic tests, which aim to identify the origin of the symptoms by preferentially loading or unloading neural structures. A prerequisite for the use of sensitizing manoeuvres to identify neural involvement is that the addition of sensitizing manoeuvres has no impact on pain perception when the origin of the pain is non-neural. In this study, experimental muscle pain was induced by injection of hypertonic saline in tibialis anterior or soleus in 25 asymptomatic, naive volunteers. A first experiment investigated the impact of hip adduction, abduction, medial and lateral rotation in the SLR position. In a second experiment, the different stages of the slump test were examined. The intensity and area of experimentally induced muscle pain did not increase when sensitizing manoeuvres were added to the SLR or throughout the successive stages of the slump test. The findings of this study lend support to the validity of the use of sensitizing manoeuvres during neurodynamic testing. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological validity in neuropsychological assessment: A case for greater consideration in research with neurologically intact populations

The focus of the discipline of neuropsychology is shifting towards a greater emphasis on understanding the relationship between assessment results and performance of everyday tasks (ecological validity). To date, the literature has highlighted the importance of this concept in the assessment of patients with brain injury or disease (e.g. in rehabilitation and forensic settings). This paper presents the argument that there is another important area in which the ecological validity of neuropsychological assessments should be considered: in clinical outcomes studies using neurologically intact participants. For example, determining the extent to which a medical procedure or intervention affects performance of everyday cognitive tasks can provide useful information that can potentially guide decision-making regarding treatment options. It is argued that tests designed with ecological validity in mind (the verisimilitude approach), as opposed to traditional tests, may be most effective at predicting everyday functioning. Explanations are proposed as to why researchers may be reluctant to use tests with verisimilitude in favor of more traditional measures. (c) 2006 National Academy of Neuropsychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measurement properties of the CHAMPS physical activity questionnaire in a sample of older Australians

Background: The effective evaluation of physical activity interventions for older adults requires measurement instruments with acceptable psychometric properties that are sufficiently sensitive to detect changes in this population. Aim: To assess the measurement properties (reliability and validity) of the Community Healthy Activities Model Program for Seniors (CHAMPS) questionnaire in a sample of older Australians. Methods: CHAMPS data were collected from 167 older adults (mean age 79.1 S.D. 6.3 years) and validated with tests of physical ability and the SF-12 measures of physical and mental health. Responses from a sub-sample of 43 older adults were used to assess 1-week test-retest reliability. Results: Approximately 25% of participants needed assistance to complete the CHAMPS questionnaire. There were low but significant correlations between the CHAMPS scores and the physical performance measures (rho=0.14-0.32) and the physical health scale of the SF-12 (rho=0.12-0.24). Reliability coefficients were highest for moderate-intensity (ICC=0.81-0.88) and lowest for vigorous-intensity physical activity (ICC=0.34-0.45). Agreement between test-retest estimates of sufficient physical activity for health benefits (>= 150 min and >= 5 sessions per week) was high (percent agreement = 88% and Cohen's kappa = 0.68). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the CHAMPS questionnaire has acceptable measurement properties, and is therefore suitable for use among older Australian adults, as long as adequate assistance is provided during administration. (c) 2006 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Psychometric assessment of recovery from mild traumatic brain injury

The Rapid Screen of Concussion (RSC) is a brief psychometric test battery, designed to provide a functional criterion to aid clinical diagnosis of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). The present research aimed to examine the utility of this instrument for assessing recovery after mTBI. Three studies were conducted. In Study 1, Discriminant Function Analysis was performed to determine how well the RSC differentiated uninjured controls (N¼16), from mTBI patients (N¼22) and moderate to severe TBI patients (N¼14), several months post-injury. As predicted, moderate to severe TBI patients achieved lower scores than the mTBI and control groups. The RSC also successfully differentiated between each of the diagnostic groups, yielding an overall correct classification rate of 75%. Study 2 examined the predictive utility of the RSC in the mTBI sample (N¼22). Acute injury performance on the RSC was correlated with post-injury scores at an average of 5.5 months post-injury. Statistically significant partial correlation coefficients (r¼0.53r¼0.80) were found for each of the subtests, showing that low acute RSC scores were predictive of poor recovery scores on the RSC after mTBI. In the third study, Reliable Change Indices were calculated on the RSC subtests to examine individual patterns of recovery from mTBI. While 17 of the 23 participants made a significant improvement on their acute injury DSST scores (74%), only 13 of 25 made a significant improvement on the Rapid Sentence Judgement Test (52%), highlighting differential recovery of function, and challenging the notion of full recovery from mTBI within 3 months. These overall results offer support for the construct and predictive validity of the RSC and demonstrate that inexpensive tests of brain function may be useful for managing mTBI acutely for prognosis.

An evaluation of Home Office extended interviews for police personnel

In this thesis the validity of an Assessment Centre (called 'Extended Interview') operated on behalf of the British police is investigated. This Assessment Centre (AC) is used to select from amongst internal candidates (serving policemen and policewomen) and external candidates (graduates) for places on an accelerated promotion scheme. The literature is reviewed with respect to history, content, structure, reliability, validity, efficiency and usefulness of ACs, and to contextual issues surrounding AC use. The history of, background to and content of police Extended Interviews (Els) is described, and research issues are identified. Internal validation involved regression of overall EI grades on measures from component tests, exercises, interviews and peer nominations. Four samples numbering 126, 73, 86 and 109 were used in this part of the research. External validation involved regression of three types of criteria - training grades, rank attained, and supervisory ratings - on all EI measures. Follow-up periods for job criteria ranged from 7 to 19 years. Three samples, numbering 223, 157 and 86, were used in this part of the research. In subsidiary investigations, supervisory ratings were factor analysed and criteria intercorrelated. For two of the samples involved in the external validition, clinical/judgemental prediction was compared with mechanical (unit-weighted composite) prediction. Main conclusions are that: (1) EI selection decisions were valid, but only for a job performance criterion; relatively low validity overall was interpreted principally in terms of the questionable job relatedness of the EI procedure; (2) Els as a whole had more validity than was reflected in final EI decisions; (3) assessors' use of information was not optimum, tending to over-emphasize subjectively derived information particularly from interviews; and (4) mechanical prediction was superior to clinical/judgemental prediction for five major criteria.

The measurement properties of the menorrhagia multi-attribute quality-of-life scale:a psychometric analysis

Menorrhagia, or heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB), is a common gynaecological condition. As the aim of treatment is to improve women's wellbeing and quality of life (QoL), it is necessary to have effective ways to measure this. This study investigated the reliability and validity of the menorrhagia multi-attribute scale (MMAS), a menorrhagia-specific QoL instrument. Participants (n = 431) completed the MMAS and a battery of other tests as part of the baseline assessment of the ECLIPSE (Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness of Levonorgestrel-containing Intrauterine system in Primary care against Standard trEatment for menorrhagia) trial. Analyses of their responses suggest that the MMAS has good measurement properties and is therefore an appropriate condition-specific instrument to measure the outcome of treatment for HMB. © 2011 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2011 RCOG.

Technological enhancements to optometric clinical tests

A sizeable amount of the testing in eye care, requires either the identification of targets such as letters to assess functional vision, or the subjective evaluation of imagery by an examiner. Computers can render a variety of different targets on their monitors and can be used to store and analyse ophthalmic images. However, existing computing hardware tends to be large, screen resolutions are often too low, and objective assessments of ophthalmic images unreliable. Recent advances in mobile computing hardware and computer-vision systems can be used to enhance clinical testing in optometry. High resolution touch screens embedded in mobile devices, can render targets at a wide variety of distances and can be used to record and respond to patient responses, automating testing methods. This has opened up new opportunities in computerised near vision testing. Equally, new image processing techniques can be used to increase the validity and reliability of objective computer vision systems. Three novel apps for assessing reading speed, contrast sensitivity and amplitude of accommodation were created by the author to demonstrate the potential of mobile computing to enhance clinical measurement. The reading speed app could present sentences effectively, control illumination and automate the testing procedure for reading speed assessment. Meanwhile the contrast sensitivity app made use of a bit stealing technique and swept frequency target, to rapidly assess a patient’s full contrast sensitivity function at both near and far distances. Finally, customised electronic hardware was created and interfaced to an app on a smartphone device to allow free space amplitude of accommodation measurement. A new geometrical model of the tear film and a ray tracing simulation of a Placido disc topographer were produced to provide insights on the effect of tear film breakdown on ophthalmic images. Furthermore, a new computer vision system, that used a novel eye-lash segmentation technique, was created to demonstrate the potential of computer vision systems for the clinical assessment of tear stability. Studies undertaken by the author to assess the validity and repeatability of the novel apps, found that their repeatability was comparable to, or better, than existing clinical methods for reading speed and contrast sensitivity assessment. Furthermore, the apps offered reduced examination times in comparison to their paper based equivalents. The reading speed and amplitude of accommodation apps correlated highly with existing methods of assessment supporting their validity. Their still remains questions over the validity of using a swept frequency sine-wave target to assess patient’s contrast sensitivity functions as no clinical test provides the range of spatial frequencies and contrasts, nor equivalent assessment at distance and near. A validation study of the new computer vision system found that the authors tear metric correlated better with existing subjective measures of tear film stability than those of a competing computer-vision system. However, repeatability was poor in comparison to the subjective measures due to eye lash interference. The new mobile apps, computer vision system, and studies outlined in this thesis provide further insight into the potential of applying mobile and image processing technology to enhance clinical testing by eye care professionals.

Self-esteem and job satisfaction of adults with mild mental retardation in sheltered workshops and supported employment programs

A sample of 200 adults with mild mental retardation were assessed on overall job satisfaction and self-esteem using the Vocational Program Evaluation Profile and the Coopersmith Self-esteem Inventory. The subjects worked either in a sheltered workshop or in a supported employment setting. Results indicated that there was a significant relationship between self-esteem and job satisfaction for both groups of subjects. In addition, subjects who worked in supported employment reported significantly higher levels of job satisfaction also. There was also an interaction between place of residence and place of employment when looking at self-esteem; those who live in a semi-independent home and work in supported employment reported the highest levels of self-esteem. These results are discussed in terms of the social validity of supported-employment for persons with mild mental retardation. ^

GRE as a predictor of graduate student success at a Hispanic serving institution of higher education

Accurately predicting the success of graduate students is an important aspect of determining which students should be admitted into graduate programs. The GRE is a pivotal factor to examine since it is one of the most widely used criteria for graduate school admission. Even though the GRE is advertised as an accurate tool for predicting first year graduate GPA, there is a lack of research on long term success factors such as time to degree and graduate rate (Luthy, 1996; Powers, 2004). Furthermore, since most studies have low minority sample sizes, the validity of the GRE may not be the same across all groups (ETS, 2008b; Kuncel, Hezlett, & Ones, 2001). Another gap in GRE studies is that few researchers analyze student characteristics, which may alter or moderate the prediction validity of the GRE. Thus, student characteristics such as degree of academic involvement, mentorship interactions, and other academic and social experiences have not been widely examined in this context. These gaps in the analysis of GRE validity are especially relevant given the high attrition rates within of some graduate programs (e.g., an estimated 68% of doctoral student never complete their programs in urban universities; Lovitts, 2001). A sequential mixed methods design was used to answer the research questions in two phases. The quantitative phase used student data files to analyze the relationship of two success variables (graduation rate and graduate GPA) to the GRE scores as well as other academic and demographic graduate student characteristics. The qualitative phase served to complement the first phase by describing a wider range of characteristics from the 11 graduate students who were interviewed. Both proximal and distal moderators influence student behaviors and success in graduate school. In the first phase of the study, the GRE was the distal facilitator under analysis. Findings suggested that both the GRE Quantitative and the GRE Verbal were predictors of success for master’s students, but the GRE Quantitative was not predictive of success for doctoral students. Other student characteristics such as demographic variables and disciplinary area were also predictors of success for the population of students studied. In the second phase of the study, it was inconclusive whether the GRE was predictive of graduate student success; though it did influence access to graduate programs. Furthermore, proximal moderators such as student involvement, faculty/peer interactions, motivational factors, and program structure were perceived to be facilitators and/or detractors for success.