Honey, I shrunk the sample covariance matrix

The central message of this paper is that nobody should be using the samplecovariance matrix for the purpose of portfolio optimization. It containsestimation error of the kind most likely to perturb a mean-varianceoptimizer. In its place, we suggest using the matrix obtained from thesample covariance matrix through a transformation called shrinkage. Thistends to pull the most extreme coefficients towards more central values,thereby systematically reducing estimation error where it matters most.Statistically, the challenge is to know the optimal shrinkage intensity,and we give the formula for that. Without changing any other step in theportfolio optimization process, we show on actual stock market data thatshrinkage reduces tracking error relative to a benchmark index, andsubstantially increases the realized information ratio of the activeportfolio manager.

On the drivers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels

We use the recent introduction of biofuels to study the effect of industry factors on the relationshipsbetween wholesale commodity prices. Correlations between agricultural products and oilare strongest in the 2005-09 period, coinciding with the boom of biofuels, and remain substantialuntil 2011. We disentangle three possible drivers for the linkage: substitution, energy costs, andfinancialization. The timing and magnitude of the biofuels-to-oil relationships are different to thoseof other commodities, and far higher than can be justified by costs and financialization. Substitutionand costs drive the monthly correlations of long-term futures, and each of the three contributeequally to the daily co-movement of the short-term ones. The findings survive many robustnesschecks and appear in the stock market.

Full insurance, asymmetric information and genetic testing

This paper extends previous resuls on optimal insurance trading in the presence of a stock market that allows continuous asset trading and substantial personal heterogeneity, and applies those results in a context of asymmetric informationwith references to the role of genetic testing in insurance markets.We find a novel and surprising result under symmetric information:agents may optimally prefer to purchase full insurance despitethe presence of unfairly priced insurance contracts, and other assets which are correlated with insurance.Asymmetric information has a Hirschleifer-type effect whichcan be solved by suspending insurance trading. Nevertheless,agents can attain their first best allocations, which suggeststhat the practice of restricting insurance not to be contingenton genetic tests can be efficient.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, July 2006

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, August 2006

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, September 2006

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, October 2006

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, November 2006

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, December 2006

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, January 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, February 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, March 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, April 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, May 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.

Iowa Leading Indicators Index Report, June 2007

The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) is a tool for monitoring the future direction of the Iowa economy and State revenues. Its eight components include an agricultural futures price index, an Iowa stock market index, average weekly manufacturing hours in Iowa, initial unemployment claims in Iowa, an Iowa new orders index, diesel fuel consumption in Iowa, residential building permits in Iowa, and the national yield spread.