The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

Decoupling 2 : technologies, opportunities and policy options

This report was produced by the Decoupling Working Group of the International Resource Panel. It explores technological possibilities and opportunities for both developing and developed countries to accelerate decoupling and reap the environmental and economic benefits of increased resource productivity. It also examines several policy options that have proved to be successful in helping different countries to improve resource productivity in various sectors of their economy, avoiding negative impacts on the environment. It does not seem possible for a global economy based on the current unsustainable patterns of resource use to continue into the future. The economic consequences of these patterns are already apparent in three areas: increases in resource prices, increased price volatility and disruption of environmental systems. The environment impacts of resource use are also leading to potentially irreversible changes to the world’s ecosystems, often with direct effects on people and the economy – for example through damage to health, water shortages, loss of fish stocks or increased storm damage. But there are alternatives to these scary patterns. Many decoupling technologies and techniques that deliver resource productivity increases as high as 5 to 10-fold are already available, allowing countries to pursue their development strategies while significantly reducing their resource footprint and negative impacts on the environment. This report shows that much of the policy design “know-how” needed to achieve decoupling is present in terms of legislation, incentive systems, and institutional reform. Many countries have tried these out with tangible results, encouraging others to study and where appropriate replicate and scale up such practices and successes.

Twentieth Anniversary Special Issue – International relations: an Oceanic perspective

In his sweeping survey of the Australian study of international relations, Martin Indyk1 claimed that ‘a common set of assumptions tends to underpin the work of almost all Australian scholars in the discipline’. If that assertion could have been plausibly extended to the whole region one generation ago, it certainly cannot now. The International Relations scholarship emanating from the Oceanic region regales in a diversity of theoretical, methodological and ethical assumptions. This diversity certainly emerged before the first Oceanic Conference on International Studies (OCIS) was convened in Canberra in 2004, however, subsequent conferences in Melbourne (2006) and Brisbane (2008) have galvanised and enriched that diversity. The state of the discipline in the region is as strong and healthy now as it has ever been, as is its integration into the global discipline, something we believe is reflected in the contributions collected in this Special Issue of Global Change, Peace and Security....

Построение автоматической навигационной системы малогабаритного беспилотного летательного аппарата многократного применения = Development of automatic navigation management system for small unmanned aerial vehicle

Современный этап развития комплексов автоматического управления и навигации малогабаритными БЛА многократного применения предъявляет высокие требования к автономности, точности и миниатюрности данных систем. Противоречивость требований диктует использование функционального и алгоритмического объединения нескольких разнотипных источников навигационной информации в едином вычислительном процессе на основе методов оптимальной фильтрации. Получили широкое развитие бесплатформенные инерциальные навигационные системы (БИНС) на основе комплексирования данных микромеханических датчиков инерциальной информации и датчиков параметров движения в воздушном потоке с данными спутниковых навигационных систем (СНС). Однако в современных условиях такой подход не в полной мере реализует требования к помехозащищённости, автономности и точности получаемой навигационной информации. Одновременно с этим достигли значительного прогресса навигационные системы, использующие принципы корреляционно экстремальной навигации по оптическим ориентирам и цифровым картам местности. Предлагается схема построения автономной автоматической навигационной системы (АНС) для БЛА многоразового применения на основе объединения алгоритмов БИНС, спутниковой навигационной системы и оптической навигационной системы. The modern stage of automatic control and guidance systems development for small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) is determined by advanced requirements for autonomy, accuracy and size of the systems. The contradictory of the requirements dictates novel functional and algorithmic tight coupling of several different onboard sensors into one computational process, which is based on methods of optimal filtering. Nowadays, data fusion of micro-electro mechanical sensors of inertial measurement units, barometric pressure sensors, and signals of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) receivers is widely used in numerous strap down inertial navigation systems (INS). However, the systems do not fully comply with such requirements as jamming immunity, fault tolerance, autonomy, and accuracy of navigation. At the same time, the significant progress has been recently demonstrated by the navigation systems, which use the correlation extremal principle applied for optical data flow and digital maps. This article proposes a new architecture of automatic navigation management system (ANMS) for small UAV, which combines algorithms of strap down INS, satellite navigation and optical navigation system.

Mastery motivation in children with intellectual disability : Is there evidence for a Down syndrome behavioural phenotype?

The main purpose of the current study was to provide empirical evidence to support or refute assumptions of phenotypic deficits in motivation for children with Down syndrome. Children with moderate intellectual disability associated with etiologies other than Down syndrome were recruited in an extension of a previous study that involved children with Down syndrome and typically developing children. The participants were 29 children with moderate intellectual disability and 33 children with Down syndrome who were matched on mental age to 33 typically developing children, aged 3 to 8 years. Mastery motivation was assessed on task measures of curiosity, preference for challenge, and persistence, as well as parental reports. There were no significant group differences on the mastery motivation tasks. Parental ratings of mastery motivation differed, with typically developing children generally being rated more highly than each of the disability groups. The view that motivational deficits are part of the Down syndrome behavioural phenotype was not supported.

Imputing a continuous income variable from a bracketed income variable with special attention to missing observations

This paper proposes a method, based on polychotomous discrete choice methods, to impute a continuous measure of income when only a bracketed measure of income is available and for only a subset of the obsevations. The method is shown to perform well with CP5 data. © 1991.

A three-phase to single-phase matrix converter based bi-directional IPT system for charging electric vehicles

This paper presents a novel three-phase to single-phase matrix converter (TSMC) based bi-directional inductive power transfer (IPT) system for vehicle-to-grid (V2G) applications. In contrast to existing techniques, the proposed technique which employs a TSMC to drive an 8th order high frequency resonant network, requires only a single-stage power conversion process to facilitate bi-directional power transfer between electric vehicles (EVs) and a three-phase utility power supply. A mathematical model is presented to demonstrate that both magnitude and direction of power flow can be controlled by regulating either relative phase angles or magnitudes of voltages generated by converters. The viability of the proposed mathematical model is verified using simulated results of a 10 kW bi-directional IPT system and the results suggest that the proposed system is efficient, reliable and is suitable for high power applications which require contactless power transfer.

Contactless and replaceable modularized battery energy storage system for electric vehicles

A novel replaceable, modularized energy storage system with wireless interface is proposed for a battery operated electric vehicle (EV). The operation of the proposed system is explained and analyzed with an equivalent circuit and an averaged state-space model. A non-linear feedback linearization based controller is developed and implemented to regulate the DC link voltage by modulating the phase shift ratio. The working and control of the proposed system is verified through simulation and some preliminary results are presented.

Controller synthesis of a bidirectional inductive power interface for electric vehicles

Bidirectional Inductive Power Transfer (IPT) systems are preferred for Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) applications. Typically, bidirectional IPT systems consist of high order resonant networks, and therefore, the control of bidirectional IPT systems has always been a difficulty. To date several different controllers have been reported, but these have been designed using steady-state models, which invariably, are incapable of providing an accurate insight into the dynamic behaviour of the system A dynamic state-space model of a bidirectional IPT system has been reported. However, currently this model has not been used to optimise the design of controllers. Therefore, this paper proposes an optimised controller based on the dynamic model. To verify the operation of the proposed controller simulated results of the optimised controller and simulated results of another controller are compared. Results indicate that the proposed controller is capable of accurately and stably controlling the power flow in a bidirectional IPT system.

Control of solar powered micro-grids using electric vehicles

Large scale solar plants are gaining recognition as potential energy sources for future. In this paper, the feasibility of using electric vehicles (EVs) to control a solar powered micro-grid is investigated in detail. The paper presents a PSCAD/EMTDC based model for the solar powered micro-grid with EVs. EVs are expected to have both the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) and grid-to-vehicle (G2V) capability, through which energy can either be injected into or extracted from the solar powered micro-grid to control its energy imbalance. Using the model, the behaviour of the micro-grid is investigated under a given load profile, and the results indicate that a minimum number of EVs are required to meet the energy imbalance and it is time dependent and influenced by various factors such as depth of charge, commuting profiles, reliability etc...

A unique battery/supercapacitor direct integration scheme for hybrid electric vehicles

Battery/supercapacitor hybrid energy storage systems have been gaining popularity in electric vehicles due to their excellent power and energy performances. Conventional designs of such systems require interfacing dc-dc converters. These additional dc-dc converters increase power loss, complexity, weight and cost. Therefore, this paper proposes a new direct integration scheme for battery/supercapacitor hybrid energy storage systems using a double ended inverter system. This unique approach eliminates the need for interfacing converters and thus it is free from aforementioned drawbacks. Furthermore, the proposed system offers seven operating modes to improve the effective use of available energy in a typical drive cycle of a hybrid electric vehicle. Simulation results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed system and control techniques.

Determinants of second row passenger comfort

China is becoming an increasingly important automotive market. Customer’s vehicle usage, preferences and requirements differ from traditional western markets in a number of aspects – rear seat usage rates are higher, vehicles are used for business purposes as well as for private transport and rear seat usage is generally more important to Chinese customers compared to their western counterparts. The purpose of this project is to dimension and investigate these differences from an ergonomics perspective and use these results to guide the design of future products. The focus for this project will be specific to vehicles in the CD segment. More specifically, this project focuses on the second row ‘ambience’. Ambience refers to the global feeling perceived by second row passengers, and the main factors contributing to ambience are: ingress and egress comfort, seat comfort, roominess, and ease of use of the controls. In order to investigate the aforementioned parameters, an experimental study has been conducted in Shanghai, China. This experiment involved 80 healthy Chinese CD- and D-car customers. These subjects were asked to evaluate different features present in the second row environment of three different cars: A Ford Mondeo, Toyota Camry and Mercedes S-class. Various data has been collected during this experiment: First, the anthropometric dimensions of the subjects have been measured. The subjects were also asked to fill a questionnaire about demographics, their own car usage, and their perception of a various number of features present in the three tested cars. A great amount of technical data was also collected. The first part of this report presents the results given by the questionnaires. It includes Chinese demographics, vehicle usage habits, and the subjective perception of the features present in the tested cars. It also presents the results of the anthropometric measurements. This gives a first insight into Chinese customers’ habits and preferences. The second part deals with the technical data recorded during the experiment: second row seat adjustment ranges, roominess, optimal location of controls, and pressure mapping analysis. Analysis of technical data allows a deeper understanding of the factors contributing to comfort and ambience perception. Using the technical data together with the comfort ratings given by the subjects in the questionnaire, recommendations on several design parameters were provided. Finally, an experimental study of car ingress-egress has been conducted in a University laboratory controlled environment. During this study, the ingress and egress motion of 20 customers from Chinese origin was recorded using a motion capture system. The last part of this report presents the protocol and data processing that led to building an ingress-egress motion database that was provided to Ford.

Willingness-to-pay for infrastructure investments for alternative fuel vehicles

This study investigates potential demand for infrastructure investment for alternative fuel vehicles by applying stated preference methods to a Japanese sample. The potential demand is estimated on the basis of how much people are willing to pay for alternative fuel vehicles under various refueling scenarios. Using the estimated parameters, the economic efficiency of establishing battery-exchange stations for electric vehicles is examined. The results indicate that infrastructural development of battery-exchange stations can be efficient when electric vehicle sales exceed 5.63% of all new vehicle sales. Further, we find a complementary relationship between the cruising ranges of alternative fuel vehicles and the infrastructure established.

Small firms and the challenge of equality, diversity and difference

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce the papers contributing to this special issue and to locate them within the broader questions about the role of small firms in enabling or alleviating issues of equality, diversity, and difference for various groups in society. Design/methodology/approach The literature dealing with the issues of equality, diversity, and difference pertaining to the operation of and/or working in smaller firms was reviewed prior to drawing out the key points from the submitted papers and considering the contribution they make to this literature. Findings Overall, one's these five papers contribute to one's understanding of the issues facing those in business or self‐employment, working in small business or wanting to pursue enterprise. Originality/value Rarely are questions asked about the assumed role small firms play in mitigating social exclusion for a range of groups in society. By addressing questions which explore the challenge of equality, diversity, and difference for small business in their establishment, management, and effective operation using interdisciplinary frameworks and different methodologies, a better understanding of the role of small business in society can be developed.

Coping strategies used by ballet dancers : effects of individual differences in competitive trait anxiety

The world of classical ballet exerts considerable physical and psychological stress upon those who participate, and yet the process of coping with such stressors is not well understood. The purpose of the present investigation was to examine relationships between coping strategies and competitive trait anxiety among ballet dancers. Participants were 104 classical dancers (81 females and 23 males) ranging in age from 15 to 35 years (M = 19.4 yr., SD = 3.8 yr.) from three professional ballet companies, two private dance schools, and two full-time, university dance courses in Australia. Participants had a mean of 11.5 years of classical dance training (SD = 5.2 yr.), having started dance training at 6.6 years of age (SD = 3.4 yr.). Coping strategies were assessed using the Modified COPE scale (MCOPE: Crocker & Graham, 1995), a 48-item measure comprising 12 coping subscales (Seeking Social Support for Instrumental Reasons, Seeking Social Support for Emotional Reasons, Behavioral Disengagement, Planning, Suppression of Competing Activities, Venting of Emotions, Humor, Active Coping, Denial, Self-Blame, Effort, and Wishful Thinking). Competitive trait anxiety was assessed using the Sport Anxiety Scale (SAS: Smith, Smoll, & Schutz, 1990), a 21-item measure comprising three anxiety subscales (Somatic Anxiety, Worry, Concentration Disruption). Standard multiple regression analyses showed that trait anxiety scores, in particular for Somatic Anxiety and Worry, were significant predictors of seven of the 12 coping strategies (Suppression of Competing Activities: R2 = 27.1%; Venting of Emotions: R2 = 23.2%; Active Coping: R2 = 14.3%; Denial: R2 = 17.7%; Self-Blame: R2 = 35.7%; Effort: R2 = 16.6%; Wishful Thinking: R2 = 42.3%). High trait anxious dancers reported more frequent use of all categories of coping strategies. A separate two-way MANOVA showed no significant main effect for gender nor status (professional versus students) and no significant interaction effect. The present findings are generally consistent with previous research in the sport psychology domain (Crocker & Graham, 1995; Giacobbi & Weinberg, 2000) which has shown that high trait anxious athletes tend, in particular, to use more maladaptive, emotion-focused coping strategies when compared to low trait anxious athletes; a tendency which has been proposed to lead to negative performance effects. The present results emphasize the need for the effectiveness of specific coping strategies to be considered during the process of preparing young classical dancers for a career in professional ballet. In particular, the results suggest that dancers who are, by nature, anxious about performance may need special attention to help them to learn to cope with performance-related stress. Given the absence of differences in coping strategies between student and professional dancers and between males and females, it appears that such educational efforts should begin at an early career stage for all dancers.