Rapid radiation in spiny lobsters (Palinurus spp) as revealed by classic and ABC methods using mtDNA and microsatellite data

Background: Molecular tools may help to uncover closely related and still diverging species from a wide variety of taxa and provide insight into the mechanisms, pace and geography of marine speciation. There is a certain controversy on the phylogeography and speciation modes of species-groups with an Eastern Atlantic-Western Indian Ocean distribution, with previous studies suggesting that older events (Miocene) and/or more recent (Pleistocene) oceanographic processes could have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa. The spiny lobster genus Palinurus allows for testing among speciation hypotheses, since it has a particular distribution with two groups of three species each in the Northeastern Atlantic (P. elephas, P. mauritanicus and P. charlestoni) and Southeastern Atlantic and Southwestern Indian Oceans (P. gilchristi, P. delagoae and P. barbarae). In the present study, we obtain a more complete understanding of the phylogenetic relationships among these species through a combined dataset with both nuclear and mitochondrial markers, by testing alternative hypotheses on both the mutation rate and tree topology under the recently developed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Results Our analyses support a North-to-South speciation pattern in Palinurus with all the South-African species forming a monophyletic clade nested within the Northern Hemisphere species. Coalescent-based ABC methods allowed us to reject the previously proposed hypothesis of a Middle Miocene speciation event related with the closure of the Tethyan Seaway. Instead, divergence times obtained for Palinurus species using the combined mtDNA-microsatellite dataset and standard mutation rates for mtDNA agree with known glaciation-related processes occurring during the last 2 my. Conclusion The Palinurus speciation pattern is a typical example of a series of rapid speciation events occurring within a group, with very short branches separating different species. Our results support the hypothesis that recent climate change-related oceanographic processes have influenced the phylogeny of marine taxa, with most Palinurus species originating during the last two million years. The present study highlights the value of new coalescent-based statistical methods such as ABC for testing different speciation hypotheses using molecular data.

A mixed ecologic-cohort comparison of physical activity & weight among young adults from five populations of African origin.

BACKGROUND: Examination of patterns and intensity of physical activity (PA) across cultures where obesity prevalence varies widely provides insight into one aspect of the ongoing epidemiologic transition. The primary hypothesis being addressed is whether low levels of PA are associated with excess weight and adiposity. METHODS: We recruited young adults from five countries (500 per country, 2500 total, ages 25-45 years), spanning the range of obesity prevalence. Men and women were recruited from a suburb of Chicago, Illinois, USA; urban Jamaica; rural Ghana; peri-urban South Africa; and the Seychelles. PA was measured using accelerometry and expressed as minutes per day of moderate-to-vigorous activity or sedentary behavior. RESULTS: Obesity (BMI ≥ 30) prevalence ranged from 1.4% (Ghanaian men) to 63.8% (US women). South African men were the most active, followed by Ghanaian men. Relatively small differences were observed across sites among women; however, women in Ghana accumulated the most activity. Within site-gender sub-groups, the correlation of activity with BMI and other measures of adiposity was inconsistent; the combined correlation across sites was -0.17 for men and -0.11 for women. In the ecological analysis time spent in moderate-to-vigorous activity was inversely associated with BMI (r = -0.71). CONCLUSION: These analyses suggest that persons with greater adiposity tend to engage in less PA, although the associations are weak and the direction of causality cannot be inferred because measurements are cross-sectional. Longitudinal data will be required to elucidate direction of association.

Elevated hypertension risk for African-origin populations in biracial societies : Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study.

OBJECTIVES: Blood pressures in persons of African descent exceed those of other racial/ethnic groups in the United States. Whether this trait is attributable to the genetic factors in African-origin populations, or a result of inadequately measured environmental exposures, such as racial discrimination, is not known. To study this question, we conducted a multisite comparative study of communities in the African diaspora, drawn from metropolitan Chicago, Kingston, Jamaica, rural Ghana, Cape Town, South Africa, and the Seychelles. METHODS: At each site, 500 participants between the age of 25 and 49 years, with approximately equal sex balance, were enrolled for a longitudinal study of energy expenditure and weight gain. In this study, we describe the patterns of blood pressure and hypertension observed at baseline among the sites. RESULTS: Mean SBP and DBP were very similar in the United States and South Africa in both men and women, although among women, the prevalence of hypertension was higher in the United States (24 vs. 17%, respectively). After adjustment for multiple covariates, relative to participants in the United States, SBP was significantly higher among the South Africans by 9.7 mmHg (P < 0.05) and significantly lower for each of the other sites: for example, Jamaica: -7.9 mmHg (P = 0.06), Ghana: -12.8 mmHg (P < 0.01) and Seychelles: -11.1 mmHg (P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: These data are consistent with prior findings of a blood pressure gradient in societies of the African diaspora and confirm that African-origin populations with lower social status in multiracial societies, such as the United States and South Africa, experience more hypertension than anticipated based on anthropometric and measurable socioeconomic risk factors.

Under-reporting of dietary energy intake in five populations of the African diaspora.

Studies on the role of diet in the development of chronic diseases often rely on self-report surveys of dietary intake. Unfortunately, many validity studies have demonstrated that self-reported dietary intake is subject to systematic under-reporting, although the vast majority of such studies have been conducted in industrialised countries. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether or not systematic reporting error exists among the individuals of African ancestry (n 324) in five countries distributed across the Human Development Index (HDI) scale, a UN statistic devised to rank countries on non-income factors plus economic indicators. Using two 24 h dietary recalls to assess energy intake and the doubly labelled water method to assess total energy expenditure, we calculated the difference between these two values ((self-report - expenditure/expenditure) × 100) to identify under-reporting of habitual energy intake in selected communities in Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the USA. Under-reporting of habitual energy intake was observed in all the five countries. The South African cohort exhibited the highest mean under-reporting ( - 52·1% of energy) compared with the cohorts of Ghana ( - 22·5%), Jamaica ( - 17·9%), Seychelles ( - 25·0%) and the USA ( - 18·5%). BMI was the most consistent predictor of under-reporting compared with other predictors. In conclusion, there is substantial under-reporting of dietary energy intake in populations across the whole range of the HDI, and this systematic reporting error increases according to the BMI of an individual.

Seasonal variation in migratory body condition, corticosterone secretion, oxidative stress and biotransformation activity in barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.)

I studied the associations between migration-related physiological regulation (corticosterone) and body condition of barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.). An additional purpose was to determine whether oxidative stress and biotransformation activity vary seasonally. Since physiological regulation, biotransformation activity and the stress involved may be important factors for body condition during migration; they may have direct effects on migration success. This in turn may influence other important life history stages, such as breeding and moult. In the thesis I used barn swallow data of the Finnish Ringing Centre (1997–2009), consisting of all juveniles ringed in the nests and recaptured from night roosts later the same autumn. Before the autumn migration in Finland I also captured, ringed and sampled barn swallows from night roosts in 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2011. Samples preceding spring migration in South Africa were collected in 2007. Juvenile barn swallows started to migrate southward in mid-August (first broods). Second broods started their migration at a younger age and almost a month later than first broods (mid-September). Barn swallows increased body mass and accumulated fat for the autumn migration. In the course of the autumn they seemed to be able to prevent the loss of energy already accumulated, since the proportional overnight mass loss, fat loss and faecal production decreased. Surprisingly, corticosterone, the major energy-regulating hormone in birds, seemed not to be involved in the fuelling process. Previous studies with warblers, sparrows and shorebirds had shown that during migration, the baseline levels of corticosterone were elevated in order to facilitate fuelling. It is possible that for Finnish barn swallows the most important fuelling place is in southern Europe, since northern and eastern populations migrate via the Balkan Peninsula. However, the adrenocortical stress response of Finnish barn swallows in good body condition was lower than that of those in poor body condition. Birds clearly suppressed the response, probably to prevent the catabolic effects of excessive corticosterone levels; birds cannot afford to lose muscle mass before migration. South African barn swallows had high levels of baseline corticosterone, but this may have been associated with the high oxidative damage and biotransformation activity of those birds. Barn swallows in spring and summer had low biotransformation activity and intermediate oxidative stress, which was probably related to breeding. Autumn birds had low biotransformation activity and oxidative stress but high redox enzyme activities in some migration-related enzymes.

Railways, Airports and Sea Container Operators as Publicly Listed Companies – Financial Performance and Shareholder Value Creation Perspective

Logistics infrastructure and transportation services have been the liability of countries and governments for decades, or these have been under strict regulation policies. One of the first branches opened for competition in EU as well as in other continents, has been air transports (operators, like passenger and freight) and road transports. These have resulted on lower costs, better connectivity and in most of the cases higher service quality. However, quite large amount of other logistics related activities are still directly (or indirectly) under governmental influence, e.g. railway infrastructure, road infrastructure, railway operations, airports, and sea ports. Due to the globalization, governmental influence is not that necessary in this sector, since transportation needs have increased with much more significant phase as compared to economic growth. Also freight transportation needs do not correlate with passenger side, due to the reason that only small number of areas in the world have specialized in the production of particular goods. Therefore, in number of cases public-private partnership, or even privately owned companies operating in these sub-branches have been identified as beneficial for countries, customers and further economic growth. The objective of this research work is to shed more light on these kinds of experiments, especially in the relatively unknown sub-branches of logistics like railways, airports and sea container transports. In this research work we have selected companies having public listed status in some stock exchange, and have needed amount of financial scale to be considered as serious company rather than start-up phase venture. Our research results show that railways and airports usually need high fixed investments, but have showed in the last five years generally good financial performance, both in terms of profitability and cash flow. In contrary to common belief of prosperity in globally growing container transports, sea vessel operators of containers have not shown that impressive financial performance. Generally margins in this business are thin, and profitability has been sacrificed in front of high growth – this also concerns cash flow performance, which has been lower too. However, as we examine these three logistics sub-branches through shareholder value development angle during time period of 2002-2007, we were surprised to find out that all of these three have outperformed general stock market indexes in this period. More surprising is the result that financially a bit less performing sea container transportation sector shows highest shareholder value gain in the examination period. Thus, it should be remembered that provided analysis shows only limited picture, since e.g. dividends were not taken into consideration in this research work. Therefore, e.g. US railway operators have disadvantage to other in the analysis, since they have been able to provide dividends for shareholders in long period of time. Based on this research work we argue that investment on transportation/logistics sector seems to be safe alternative, which yields with relatively low risk high gain. Although global economy would face smaller growth period, this sector seems to provide opportunities in more demanding situation as well.

Changes in plant community diversity and composition across an edge between Araucaria forest and pasture in South Brazil

This work investigated how richness, abundance, composition and structure of woody and herbaceous vegetation were altered by the proximity of an edge between Araucaria forest and pasture in South Brazil. Herbaceous and woody species including seedlings were surveyed in 42 plots of 5 × 5 m randomly placed at the following distances: 5 and 50 m from the edge into the pasture and 0, 25, 50, 100 and 250 m from the edge into the forest. There was a significant increase in vegetation cover, richness and abundance of woody species, woody seedlings and herbaceous plants at the edge (0 m). These variables, in general, decreased from 25 to 50 m from the edge into the forest in comparison to the forest interior. Few seedlings of woody plants were able to establish themselves in the pasture. There were continuous changes in species composition that occurred in the studied gradient due to the invasion of light-demanding species and the disappearance of some shade-tolerant species at the edge. In conclusion, the forest edge studied generated changes in the plant community that extended up to 50 m into the forest.

Comparative lifecycle assessment on organic and conventional carrots – case: Carrots from South-Savo and imported carrots from Italy

Organic farming is perceived to be an environmental friendly method of food production, thus assumed to be an alternative means of minimizing food-based environmental footprints. However, lower yield and unproductive years in organic crop rotation raise questions of whether it is really an environmentally friendly farming practice. Thus, the aim of this thesis was to examine the carbon footprint and energy demands of organic carrots cultivated and sold in South-Savo, Finland and compare them with those of local and imported conventional carrots using lifecycle assessment (LCA) as a method. From the investigation, it was found that organic carrots produced in South-Savo have the lowest GHG emissions and energy demand. The GHG emissions of local organic, local conventional and imported conventional carrots were found to be 4g CO2 eq. kgcarrots-1, 142g CO2 eq. kgcarrots-1 and 280 g CO2 eq. kgcarrots-1, respectively. On the other hand, energy demand for those carrots was found to be 1,33 MJ, 1,88 MJ and 3,68 MJ kgcarrots-1. Furthermore, it was also found that local organic carrots would have approximately similar GHG emissions as conventional counterpart if soil carbon stock change was excluded from the study.

Environmental assessment of Lake Gibson sediments, water quality, and soils of the Niagara Region

In light of the fact that literature on toxicity of heavy metals in non-acidified freshwater systems is sparse, this project was initiated to conduct an environmental assessment of Lake Gibson. Chemistry of soils from adjacent areas and vineyards in the region provide a comparative background database. Water quality determinations were used to identify and highlight areas of environmental concern within the Lake Gibson watershed. A Shelby Corer was used to obtain 66 sediment cores from Lake Gibson. These were sectioned according to lithology and color to yield 298 samples. A suite of 122 soil samples was collected in the region and vicinity of Lake Gibson. All were tested for metals and some for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH). Evaluation of the results leads to the following conclusions: 1. Metal concentrations ofAI, Cd, Cu, Cr, Pb, Ni, Fe and Zn in soils from the Niagara Region are well below background limits set by the Ministry of the Environment and Energy (MOEE) for provincial soils. 2. There is a spatial and depth difference for some of the metals within the various soils. The Cr, Ni and Pb contents of soils vary throughout the region (pand in some instances they also exceed the SEL (Severe Effect Level) guideline. In this instance acute toxicity testing of 11 the sediments is required to assess impact on the aquatic biota. 5. Specifically, effluents and discharges from outfalls, roadways, railways and industrial activities are all degrading the local ecosystem. 6. Mineral oil and greases are a major environmental concern in the sediments of Lake Gibson. Ofthe 240 samples tested for TPH, 200 samples exceed the MOEE Open Water Disposal Guideline of 1,500 mg/kg. 7. Four areas within Lake Gibson are especially degraded with respect to TPH. One area is just downstream from the Old WeIland Canal divergence point and waterfall. Other areas of concern are located just south of Beaverdams Road and just west ofthe Ontario Hydro control pipes; south ofthe Village ofBeaverdams. The fourth area of environmental concern and TPH impact is located between Highway 406 and Merrittville Highway.

Vegetational history and geochronology of several sites in South Southwestern Ontario with discussion on mastodon extinction in Southern Ontario /

This study has three purposes: to establish a chronologically controlled vegetational history for a number of sites in south Southwestern Ontario; to utilize the resulting data to support and/or add to the current understanding of Quaternary geology and stratigraphy, and the glacial and postglacial history of the Great Lakes in south Southwestern Ontario; and to attempt to propose a possible explanation for the extinction of the mastodon in Southern Ontario. Palynological and geochronological analyses were conducted on material collected from eleven sites (east to west): Verbeke Mastodon Site, Woloshko Mastodon Site, Walker Pond II, Pond Mills I, Lake Hunger Bog, Bouckaert Site. Mabee Site, Cornell Bog. Colles Lake I, Folden Mastodon Site and Forest Pond. Individual geochronologically controlled (where possible) vegetational histories were reconstructed for each of the sites investigated. The results of the individual studies, when considered in overview. indicated the existance of an established closed boreal forest throughout south Southwestern Ontario by 10,000 years B.P. This evidence for a significant climatic change coincident throughout south Southwestern Ontario supports the proposed age of 10,000 years B.P. for the Pleistocene/Holocene Boundary (Terasmae, 1972). Remnant patches of 'open spruce parkland' persisted in small local 'wet' areas. It was in these areas that the mastodon was restricted during early Holocene time. With continued encroachment by the surrounding boreal forest, possibly speeded up by this browser's destructive feeding habits, the spruce enclaves shrank and the mastodon became extinct in south Southwestern Ontario. The results of this thesis basically support Dreimanis' (1967, 1968) proposed 'Environmental-Climatic' theory for mastodon extinction. It is suggested that increased dryness during the present interglacial compared to the climate of earlier interglacials may be the key to unravelling the problem of mastodon extinction in eastern North America.

South Asian Women's Identities: A Media and Personal Narrative Analysis

This study examines issues of racism and sexism through the lens of Critical Race Theory and the interaction of personal and composite narratives. Specifically, the study explores how mainstream media’s hegemonic portrayal of South Asian culture and the 2007 socalled honour killing of Aqsa Parvez contribute to post-9/11 Islamophobia. The researcher presents a personal narrative that draws upon her experiences growing up in Dubai, U.A.E., and in Ontario, Canada and critically analyzes majoritarian stories related to Parvez as well as “counter-perspectives” that challenge such views. Study findings highlight the impact of 9/11 and Parvez’s murder on the researcher’s identity formation, and how media portray Muslim women as oppressed beings who live under the yoke of patriarchy. Results also indicate that although certain articles offer a counter-perspective that challenge dominant narratives, most recent media representations of the Parvez story equate Islam with honour killings and thus foster continued Islamophobia.

Conscience and Attestation : The Methodological Role of the “Call of Conscience” (Gewissensruf) in Heidegger’s Being and Time

Travail réalisé en cotutelle (Université de Paris IV-La Sorbonne).

Essays in macro finance and monetary economics

Les questions abordées dans les deux premiers articles de ma thèse cherchent à comprendre les facteurs économiques qui affectent la structure à terme des taux d'intérêt et la prime de risque. Je construis des modèles non linéaires d'équilibre général en y intégrant des obligations de différentes échéances. Spécifiquement, le premier article a pour objectif de comprendre la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et le niveau de prime de risque dans un cadre Néo-keynésien d'équilibre général avec incertitude. L'incertitude dans le modèle provient de trois sources : les chocs de productivité, les chocs monétaires et les chocs de préférences. Le modèle comporte deux types de rigidités réelles à savoir la formation des habitudes dans les préférences et les coûts d'ajustement du stock de capital. Le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations à l'ordre deux et calibré à l'économie américaine. Puisque la prime de risque est par nature une compensation pour le risque, l'approximation d'ordre deux implique que la prime de risque est une combinaison linéaire des volatilités des trois chocs. Les résultats montrent qu'avec les paramètres calibrés, les chocs réels (productivité et préférences) jouent un rôle plus important dans la détermination du niveau de la prime de risque relativement aux chocs monétaires. Je montre que contrairement aux travaux précédents (dans lesquels le capital de production est fixe), l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque dépend du degré des coûts d'ajustement du capital. Lorsque les coûts d'ajustement du capital sont élevés au point que le stock de capital est fixe à l'équilibre, une augmentation du paramètre de formation des habitudes entraine une augmentation de la prime de risque. Par contre, lorsque les agents peuvent librement ajuster le stock de capital sans coûts, l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est négligeable. Ce résultat s'explique par le fait que lorsque le stock de capital peut être ajusté sans coûts, cela ouvre un canal additionnel de lissage de consommation pour les agents. Par conséquent, l'effet de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est amoindri. En outre, les résultats montrent que la façon dont la banque centrale conduit sa politique monétaire a un effet sur la prime de risque. Plus la banque centrale est agressive vis-à-vis de l'inflation, plus la prime de risque diminue et vice versa. Cela est due au fait que lorsque la banque centrale combat l'inflation cela entraine une baisse de la variance de l'inflation. Par suite, la prime de risque due au risque d'inflation diminue. Dans le deuxième article, je fais une extension du premier article en utilisant des préférences récursives de type Epstein -- Zin et en permettant aux volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de varier avec le temps. L'emploi de ce cadre est motivé par deux raisons. D'abord des études récentes (Doh, 2010, Rudebusch and Swanson, 2012) ont montré que ces préférences sont appropriées pour l'analyse du prix des actifs dans les modèles d'équilibre général. Ensuite, l'hétéroscedasticité est une caractéristique courante des données économiques et financières. Cela implique que contrairement au premier article, l'incertitude varie dans le temps. Le cadre dans cet article est donc plus général et plus réaliste que celui du premier article. L'objectif principal de cet article est d'examiner l'impact des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles sur le niveau et la dynamique des taux d'intérêt et de la prime de risque. Puisque la prime de risque est constante a l'approximation d'ordre deux, le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations avec une approximation d'ordre trois. Ainsi on obtient une prime de risque qui varie dans le temps. L'avantage d'introduire des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles est que cela induit des variables d'état supplémentaires qui apportent une contribution additionnelle à la dynamique de la prime de risque. Je montre que l'approximation d'ordre trois implique que les primes de risque ont une représentation de type ARCH-M (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty in Mean) comme celui introduit par Engle, Lilien et Robins (1987). La différence est que dans ce modèle les paramètres sont structurels et les volatilités sont des volatilités conditionnelles de chocs économiques et non celles des variables elles-mêmes. J'estime les paramètres du modèle par la méthode des moments simulés (SMM) en utilisant des données de l'économie américaine. Les résultats de l'estimation montrent qu'il y a une évidence de volatilité stochastique dans les trois chocs. De plus, la contribution des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs au niveau et à la dynamique de la prime de risque est significative. En particulier, les effets des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de productivité et de préférences sont significatifs. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de productivité contribue positivement aux moyennes et aux écart-types des primes de risque. Ces contributions varient avec la maturité des bonds. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de préférences quant à elle contribue négativement aux moyennes et positivement aux variances des primes de risque. Quant au choc de volatilité de la politique monétaire, son impact sur les primes de risque est négligeable. Le troisième article (coécrit avec Eric Schaling, Alain Kabundi, révisé et resoumis au journal of Economic Modelling) traite de l'hétérogénéité dans la formation des attentes d'inflation de divers groupes économiques et de leur impact sur la politique monétaire en Afrique du sud. La question principale est d'examiner si différents groupes d'agents économiques forment leurs attentes d'inflation de la même façon et s'ils perçoivent de la même façon la politique monétaire de la banque centrale (South African Reserve Bank). Ainsi on spécifie un modèle de prédiction d'inflation qui nous permet de tester l'arrimage des attentes d'inflation à la bande d'inflation cible (3% - 6%) de la banque centrale. Les données utilisées sont des données d'enquête réalisée par la banque centrale auprès de trois groupes d'agents : les analystes financiers, les firmes et les syndicats. On exploite donc la structure de panel des données pour tester l'hétérogénéité dans les attentes d'inflation et déduire leur perception de la politique monétaire. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a évidence d'hétérogénéité dans la manière dont les différents groupes forment leurs attentes. Les attentes des analystes financiers sont arrimées à la bande d'inflation cible alors que celles des firmes et des syndicats ne sont pas arrimées. En effet, les firmes et les syndicats accordent un poids significatif à l'inflation retardée d'une période et leurs prédictions varient avec l'inflation réalisée (retardée). Ce qui dénote un manque de crédibilité parfaite de la banque centrale au vu de ces agents.

Collaboration between infection control and occupational health in three continents: a success story with international impact

Globalization has been accompanied by the rapid spread of infectious diseases, and further strain on working conditions for health workers globally. Post-SARS, Canadian occupational health and infection control researchers got together to study how to better protect health workers, and found that training was indeed perceived as key to a positive safety culture. This led to developing information and communication technology (ICT) tools. The research conducted also showed the need for better workplace inspections, so a workplace audit tool was also developed to supplement worker questionnaires and the ICT. When invited to join Ecuadorean colleagues to promote occupational health and infection control, these tools were collectively adapted and improved, including face-to-face as well as on-line problem-based learning scenarios. The South African government then invited the team to work with local colleagues to improve occupational health and infection control, resulting in an improved web-based health information system to track incidents, exposures, and occupational injury and diseases. As the H1N1 pandemic struck, the online infection control course was adapted and translated into Spanish, as was a novel skill-building learning tool that permits health workers to practice selecting personal protective equipment. This tool was originally developed in collaboration with the countries from the Caribbean region and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Research from these experiences led to strengthened focus on building capacity of health and safety committees, and new modules are thus being created, informed by that work. The products developed have been widely heralded as innovative and interactive, leading to their inclusion into “toolkits” used internationally. The tools used in Canada were substantially improved from the collaborative adaptation process for South and Central America and South Africa. This international collaboration between occupational health and infection control researchers led to the improvement of the research framework and development of tools, guidelines and information systems. Furthermore, the research and knowledge-transfer experience highlighted the value of partnership amongst Northern and Southern researchers in terms of sharing resources, experiences and knowledge.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.