Comparación socioeconómica de las empresas agrarias de producción ecológica y convencional en Aragón, España : Problemas y oportunidades

El trabajo presenta los problemas y oportunidades de la agricultura ecológica en Aragón, España. Con esta finalidad, se compara la agricultura ecológica con la convencional tanto en los aspectos socioeconómicos como medioambientales. Como base de esta comparativa, se presentan algunos de los principios básicos de la agricultura ecológica y su estructura contable de costes, obtenida a través de un trabajo de campo en Aragón y bases de datos oficiales, así como datos sobre su consumo y distribución; finalmente se sugieren algunas vías de actuación pública que pueden apoyar las oportunidades de la agricultura ecológica.

Descentralización, autogestión, gestión local. Estudio de caso de un municipio en La Pampa, Argentina

Los municipios, en los últimos veinticinco años, han cambiado sus roles. En la actualidad, los gobernantes locales asumen formas de gestionar que atienden a las crecientes demandas sociales de sus vecinos, redefiniendo las políticas públicas municipales. Parte de la tarea de gestión es el ordenamiento territorial como estrategia para orientar la distribución espacial del desarrollo, de acuerdo con los recursos disponibles, con el mejor uso que a los mismos se da en términos sociales, económicos y ambientales. Concretarlo implica cambios cualitativos importantes, adecuaciones en la gestión político-administrativa. En Victorica, La Pampa, la autogestión se perfila como una de las características más sobresalientes. La dinámica gestión de su territorio es ejemplo para otros municipios que intentan imitar el estilo. Los actores sociales son la clave del cambio.

Comparación socioeconómica de las empresas agrarias de producción ecológica y convencional en Aragón, España : Problemas y oportunidades

El trabajo presenta los problemas y oportunidades de la agricultura ecológica en Aragón, España. Con esta finalidad, se compara la agricultura ecológica con la convencional tanto en los aspectos socioeconómicos como medioambientales. Como base de esta comparativa, se presentan algunos de los principios básicos de la agricultura ecológica y su estructura contable de costes, obtenida a través de un trabajo de campo en Aragón y bases de datos oficiales, así como datos sobre su consumo y distribución; finalmente se sugieren algunas vías de actuación pública que pueden apoyar las oportunidades de la agricultura ecológica.

Descentralización, autogestión, gestión local. Estudio de caso de un municipio en La Pampa, Argentina

Los municipios, en los últimos veinticinco años, han cambiado sus roles. En la actualidad, los gobernantes locales asumen formas de gestionar que atienden a las crecientes demandas sociales de sus vecinos, redefiniendo las políticas públicas municipales. Parte de la tarea de gestión es el ordenamiento territorial como estrategia para orientar la distribución espacial del desarrollo, de acuerdo con los recursos disponibles, con el mejor uso que a los mismos se da en términos sociales, económicos y ambientales. Concretarlo implica cambios cualitativos importantes, adecuaciones en la gestión político-administrativa. En Victorica, La Pampa, la autogestión se perfila como una de las características más sobresalientes. La dinámica gestión de su territorio es ejemplo para otros municipios que intentan imitar el estilo. Los actores sociales son la clave del cambio.

A avaliação ambiental estratégica como ferramenta ao planejamento e à gestão do território

Planned to be a process of early evaluation of Politics, Plans and Programs (PPPs), which interfere in the environment; the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) suggests a methodology for planning and managing the land, which overcomes the limitations of the traditional plans that try to mitigate the environmental impacts of Projects, assuming a pro-active conception that incorporates the social and environmental aspects in the planning stage of the PPPs. This kind of Evaluation surpasses the existing limitations of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), once the EIA happens after the planning process, when lots of decisions have been made and carried out. In order to overcome the limitations of EIA, the SEA is a strategic tool in the process of planning and managing the land. When we focus on the PPPs and not on the Projects, the SEA, which is more political than technical, priorizes the strategies that assure the integration of the environmental, social, economic and institutional aspects into the planning process, in private or public organizations. In this context, this work aims to establish the concept basis of the Strategic Environmental Evaluation as a tool for land planning and managing. The methodology procedures used here lie in the literature review concerning the SEA, analyzing how this tool can be introduced as an alternative for sustainable development. Although the SEA is a tool that introduces the sustainable development theme as a guiding principle of planning, it is seldom used by managers and decision makers, locally and nationally

As lavouras de grãos como atividades de desenvolvimento e integração da Região da Grande Dourados ao circuito produtivo nacional

Led to become a national productive Center, the Great Dourados Region, which consists of 40 cities located in the south of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil, emerged as a grain productive region from the middle of the 1970s in the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century. Using modern agricultural techniques, the land organization in this region was ruled by a development policy which was not concerned with the socio environmental aspects of the area. In this context, the present work aims to analyze the development process of the Great Dourados region, through soybean production and its relation to the confinement of the indigenous people present in the Area. This integration happened due to the money and for it, inserting this Region into a national productive pattern which guided the farmers to modern crops, mainly soybean. The land cultivation was not the only productive activity that granted the Region an economic integration, to both the national and international market. From the end of the Paraguay War (1870) to the middle of the 70s, there were at least two other ways to the regional economic integration. One of them happened with the traditional activities of cattle raising and the extraction of the Paraguay tea (maté/ Yerba Mate) from 1870 to 1937, which divided the regional territory into large farmlands focused on the external market. The other way happened with the need to create a market for the agricultural production and for the demand for manufactured goods, which reorganized the regional territory into small farmlands, as a result of colonization projects from 1943 to 1956. Since 1976, with the creation of the Special Program for the Development of the Great Dourados Region (Prodegran), the capitalist relations of production, which were consolidated in the area, were not ruled almost exclusively by the traditional activities of cattle raising and the extraction of the Paraguay tea, in order to create a new accumulation center connected to the modern crops. As this new accumulation center was created, the Region was led to a selective and dependent integration process, in which many farmers changed their accumulation centers to modern grain crops, causing environmental degradation, productive exclusion and ethnical-cultural conflicts with the indigenous community

As lavouras de grãos como atividades de desenvolvimento e integração da Região da Grande Dourados ao circuito produtivo nacional

Led to become a national productive Center, the Great Dourados Region, which consists of 40 cities located in the south of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul - Brazil, emerged as a grain productive region from the middle of the 1970s in the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century. Using modern agricultural techniques, the land organization in this region was ruled by a development policy which was not concerned with the socio environmental aspects of the area. In this context, the present work aims to analyze the development process of the Great Dourados region, through soybean production and its relation to the confinement of the indigenous people present in the Area. This integration happened due to the money and for it, inserting this Region into a national productive pattern which guided the farmers to modern crops, mainly soybean. The land cultivation was not the only productive activity that granted the Region an economic integration, to both the national and international market. From the end of the Paraguay War (1870) to the middle of the 70s, there were at least two other ways to the regional economic integration. One of them happened with the traditional activities of cattle raising and the extraction of the Paraguay tea (maté/ Yerba Mate) from 1870 to 1937, which divided the regional territory into large farmlands focused on the external market. The other way happened with the need to create a market for the agricultural production and for the demand for manufactured goods, which reorganized the regional territory into small farmlands, as a result of colonization projects from 1943 to 1956. Since 1976, with the creation of the Special Program for the Development of the Great Dourados Region (Prodegran), the capitalist relations of production, which were consolidated in the area, were not ruled almost exclusively by the traditional activities of cattle raising and the extraction of the Paraguay tea, in order to create a new accumulation center connected to the modern crops. As this new accumulation center was created, the Region was led to a selective and dependent integration process, in which many farmers changed their accumulation centers to modern grain crops, causing environmental degradation, productive exclusion and ethnical-cultural conflicts with the indigenous community

Comparación socioeconómica de las empresas agrarias de producción ecológica y convencional en Aragón, España : Problemas y oportunidades

El trabajo presenta los problemas y oportunidades de la agricultura ecológica en Aragón, España. Con esta finalidad, se compara la agricultura ecológica con la convencional tanto en los aspectos socioeconómicos como medioambientales. Como base de esta comparativa, se presentan algunos de los principios básicos de la agricultura ecológica y su estructura contable de costes, obtenida a través de un trabajo de campo en Aragón y bases de datos oficiales, así como datos sobre su consumo y distribución; finalmente se sugieren algunas vías de actuación pública que pueden apoyar las oportunidades de la agricultura ecológica.

Descentralización, autogestión, gestión local. Estudio de caso de un municipio en La Pampa, Argentina

Los municipios, en los últimos veinticinco años, han cambiado sus roles. En la actualidad, los gobernantes locales asumen formas de gestionar que atienden a las crecientes demandas sociales de sus vecinos, redefiniendo las políticas públicas municipales. Parte de la tarea de gestión es el ordenamiento territorial como estrategia para orientar la distribución espacial del desarrollo, de acuerdo con los recursos disponibles, con el mejor uso que a los mismos se da en términos sociales, económicos y ambientales. Concretarlo implica cambios cualitativos importantes, adecuaciones en la gestión político-administrativa. En Victorica, La Pampa, la autogestión se perfila como una de las características más sobresalientes. La dinámica gestión de su territorio es ejemplo para otros municipios que intentan imitar el estilo. Los actores sociales son la clave del cambio.

A avaliação ambiental estratégica como ferramenta ao planejamento e à gestão do território

Planned to be a process of early evaluation of Politics, Plans and Programs (PPPs), which interfere in the environment; the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) suggests a methodology for planning and managing the land, which overcomes the limitations of the traditional plans that try to mitigate the environmental impacts of Projects, assuming a pro-active conception that incorporates the social and environmental aspects in the planning stage of the PPPs. This kind of Evaluation surpasses the existing limitations of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), once the EIA happens after the planning process, when lots of decisions have been made and carried out. In order to overcome the limitations of EIA, the SEA is a strategic tool in the process of planning and managing the land. When we focus on the PPPs and not on the Projects, the SEA, which is more political than technical, priorizes the strategies that assure the integration of the environmental, social, economic and institutional aspects into the planning process, in private or public organizations. In this context, this work aims to establish the concept basis of the Strategic Environmental Evaluation as a tool for land planning and managing. The methodology procedures used here lie in the literature review concerning the SEA, analyzing how this tool can be introduced as an alternative for sustainable development. Although the SEA is a tool that introduces the sustainable development theme as a guiding principle of planning, it is seldom used by managers and decision makers, locally and nationally

Geochemical investigations of volcanic ash layers from ODP Leg 119

Geochemical investigations were carried out on 19 discrete ash layers and on 42 dispersed ash accumulations in Oligocene to Pleistocene sediments from Sites 736, 737, 745, and 746 of ODP Leg 119 (Kerguelen Plateau in the southern Indian Ocean). The chemical data obtained from more than 500 single-grain glass analyses allow the characterization of two dominant petrographic rock series. The first consists of transitional- to alkali-basalts, the second mainly of trachytes with subordinated alkali-rhyolites and rhyolites. Chemical correlation with possible source areas indicates that the tephra layers from the northern Kerguelen Plateau Sites 736 and 737 were probably erupted from the nearby Kerguelen Islands. The investigated ash layers clearly reflect the Oligocene to recent changes in the composition of the volcanic material recorded from the Kerguelen Islands. The dispersed ashes from Sites 745 and 746 in the Australian-Antarctic Basin display almost the same range in chemical compositions as those from the north. Heard Island and other sources may have contributed to their formation, in addition to the Kerguelen Islands. Dispersed ash of calc-alkaline composition is most probably derived from the South Sandwich island arc, indicating sea-ice rafting as an important mechanism of transport.

Microbiological investigations of the Canadian tundra

Microbial communities were analyzed at 17 sites visited during the expedition Tundra Northwest 1999 (TNW-99) by microscopic analyses (epifluorescence microscopy and image analyses). The data were used to describe the communities of bacteria, fungi and algae in detail by number, biovolume and biomass. Great variability was found, which could be related to organic matter content of soils and features of vegetation patterns. The amounts (numbers and abundance) of organisms and data on microbial biomass are discussed in relation to other polar environments of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

Desarrollo de un modelo de formación del valor inmobiliario en áreas de crecimiento suburbano. Aplicación a la comarca de la Vega Baja del Segura en el litoral alicantino

Una de las principales líneas de investigación de la economía urbana es el comportamiento del mercado inmobiliario y sus relaciones con la estructura territorial. Dentro de este contexto, la reflexión sobre el significado del valor urbano, y abordar su variabilidad, constituye un tema de especial importancia, dada la relevancia que ha supuesto y supone la actividad inmobiliaria en España. El presente estudio ha planteado como principal objetivo la identificación de aquellos factores, ligados a la localización que explican la formación del valor inmobiliario y justifican su variabilidad. Definir este proceso precisa de una evaluación a escala territorial estableciendo aquellos factores de carácter socioeconómico, medioambiental y urbanístico que estructuran el desarrollo urbano, condicionan la demanda de inmuebles y, por tanto, los procesos de formación de su valor. El análisis se centra en valores inmobiliarios residenciales localizados en áreas litorales donde la presión del sector turístico ha impulsado un amplio. Para ello, el ámbito territorial seleccionado como objeto de estudio se sitúa en la costa mediterránea española, al sur de la provincia de Alicante, la comarca de la Vega Baja del Segura. La zona, con una amplia diversidad ecológica y paisajística, ha mantenido históricamente una clara distinción entre espacio urbano y espacio rural. Esta dicotomía ha cambiado drásticamente en las últimas décadas, experimentándose un fuerte crecimiento demográfico y económico ligado a los sectores turístico e inmobiliario, aspectos que han tenido un claro reflejo en los valores inmobiliarios. Este desarrollo de la comarca es un claro ejemplo de la política expansionista de los mercados de suelo que ha tenido lugar en la costa española en las dos últimas décadas y que derivado en la regeneración de un amplio tejido suburbano. El conocimiento del marco territorial ha posibilitado realizar un análisis de variabilidad espacial mediante un tratamiento masivo de datos, así como un análisis econométrico que determina los factores que se valoran positivamente y negativamente por el potencial comprador. Estas relaciones permiten establecer diferentes estructuras matemáticas basadas en los modelos de precios hedónicos, que permiten identificar rasgos diferenciales en los ámbitos económico, social y espacial y su incidencia en el valor inmobiliario. También se ha sistematizado un proceso de valoración territorial a través del análisis del concepto de vulnerabilidad estructural, entendido como una situación de fragilidad debida a circunstancias tanto sociales como económicas, tanto actual como de tendencia en el futuro. Actualmente, esta estructura de demanda de segunda residencia y servicios ha mostrado su fragilidad y ha bloqueado el desarrollo económico de la zona al caer drásticamente la inversión en el sector inmobiliario por la crisis global de la deuda. El proceso se ha agravado al existir un tejido industrial marginal al que no se ha derivado inversiones importantes y un abandono progresivo de las explotaciones agropecuarias. El modelo turístico no sería en sí mismo la causa del bloqueo del desarrollo económico comarcal, sino la forma en que se ha implantado en la Costa Blanca, con un consumo del territorio basado en el corto plazo, poco respetuoso con aspectos paisajísticos y medioambientales, y sin una organización territorial global. Se observa cómo la vinculación entre índices de vulnerabilidad y valor inmobiliario no es especialmente significativa, lo que denota que las tendencias futuras de fragilidad no han sido incorporadas a la hora de establecer los precios de venta del producto inmobiliario analizado. El valor muestra una clara dependencia del sistema de asentamiento y conservación de las áreas medioambientales y un claro reconocimiento de tipologías propias del medio rural aunque vinculadas al sector turístico. En la actualidad, el continuo descenso de la demanda turística ha provocado una clara modificación en la estructura poblacional y económica. Al incorporar estas modificaciones a los modelos especificados podemos comprobar un verdadero desmoronamiento de los valores. Es posible que el remanente de vivienda construida actualmente vaya dirigido a un potencial comprador que se encuentra en retroceso y que se vincula a unos rasgos territoriales ya no existentes. Encontrar soluciones adaptables a la oferta existente, implica la viabilidad de renovación del sistema poblacional o modificaciones a nivel económico. La búsqueda de respuestas a estas cuestiones señala la necesidad de recanalizar el desarrollo, sin obviar la potencialidad del ámbito. SUMMARY One of the main lines of research regarding the urban economy focuses on the behavior of the real estate market and its relationship to territorial structure. Within this context, one of the most important themes involves considering the significance of urban property value and dealing with its variability, particularly given the significant role of the real estate market in Spain, both in the past and present. The main objective of this study is to identify those factors linked to location, which explain the formation of property values and justify their variability. Defining this process requires carrying out an evaluation on a territorial scale, establishing the socioeconomic, environmental and urban planning factors that constitute urban development and influence the demand for housing, thereby defining the processes by which their value is established. The analysis targets residential real estate values in coastal areas where pressure from the tourism industry has prompted large-scale transformations. Therefore, the focal point of this study is an area known as Vega Baja del Segura, which is located on the Spanish Mediterranean coast in southern Alicante (province). Characterized by its scenic and ecological diversity, this area has historically maintained a clear distinction between urban and rural spaces. This dichotomy has drastically changed in past decades due to the large increase in population attributed to the tourism and real estate markets – factors which have had a direct effect on property values. The development of this area provides a clear example of the expansionary policies which have affected the housing market on the coast of Spain during the past two decades, resulting in a large increase in suburban development. Understanding the territorial framework has made it possible to carry out a spatial variability analysis through massive data processing, as well as an econometric analysis that determines the factors that are evaluated positively and negatively by potential buyers. These relationships enable us to establish different mathematical systems based on hedonic pricing models that facilitate the identification of differential features in the economic, social and spatial spheres, and their impact on property values. Additionally, a process for land valuation was established through an analysis of the concept of structural vulnerability, which is understood to be a fragile situation resulting from either social or economic circumstances. Currently, this demand structure for second homes and services has demonstrated its fragility and has inhibited the area’s economic development as a result of the drastic fall in investment in the real estate market, due to the global debt crisis. This process has been worsened by the existence of a marginal industrial base into which no important investments have been channeled, combined with the progressive abandonment of agricultural and fishing operations. In and of itself, the tourism model did not inhibit the area’s economic development, rather it is the result of the manner in which it was implemented on the Costa Brava, with a land consumption based on the short-term, lacking respect for landscape and environmental aspects and without a comprehensive organization of the territory. It is clear that the link between vulnerability indexes and property values is not particularly significant, thereby indicating that future fragility trends have not been incorporated into the problem in terms of establishing the sale prices of the analyzed real estate product in question. Urban property values are clearly dependent on the system of development and environmental conservation, as well as on a clear recognition of the typologies that characterize rural areas, even those linked to the tourism industry. Today, the continued drop in tourism demand has provoked an obvious modification in the populational and economic structures. By incorporating these changes into the specified models, we can confirm a real collapse in values. It’s possible that the surplus of already-built homes is currently being marketed to a potential buyer who is in recession and linked to certain territorial characteristics that no longer exist. Finding solutions that can be adapted to the existing offer implies the viability of renewing the population system or carrying out modifications on an economic level. The search for answers to these questions suggests the need to reform the development model, without leaving out an area’s potentiality.

Concept of project: learning lessons

The concept of Project encompasses a semantic disparity that involves all areas of professional and nonprofessional activity. In the engineering projects domain, and starting by the etymological roots of the terms, a review of the definitions given by different authors and their relation with sociological trends of the last decades is carried out. The engineering projects began as a tool for the development of technological ideas and have been improved with legal, economic and management parameters and recently with environmental aspects. However, the engineering projects involve people, groups, agents, organizations, companies and institutions. Nowadays, the social implications of projects are taken into consideration but the technology for social integration is not consolidated. This communication provides a new framework based on the experience for the development of engineering projects in the context of "human development", placing people in the center of the project

Diseño y aplicación de una metodología prospectiva para la determinación de los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores

Durante las últimas décadas se observa una tendencia sostenida al crecimiento en las dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores, que produce, que las infraestructuras portuarias y otras destinadas al tráfico de contenedores deban adaptarse para poder brindar los servicios correspondientes y mantenerse competitivas con otras para no perder el mercado. Esta situación implica importantes inversiones y modificaciones en los sistemas de transporte de contenedores por el gran volumen de carga que se debe mover en un corto periodo de tiempo, lo que genera la necesidad de tomar previsiones relacionadas con la probable evolución a futuro de las dimensiones que alcanzarán los grandes buques portacontenedores. En relación a los aspectos citados surge la inquietud de determinar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores, con una visión totalizadora de todos los factores que incidirán en los próximos años, ya sea como un freno o un impulso a la tendencia que se verifica en el pasado y en el presente. En consideración a que el tema a tratar y resolver se encuentra en el futuro, con un horizonte de predicción de veinte años, se diseña y se aplica una metodología prospectiva, que permite alcanzar conclusiones con mayor grado de objetividad sobre probables escenarios futuros. La metodología prospectiva diseñada, conjuga distintas herramientas metodológicas, cualitativas, semi-cuantitativas y cuantitativas que se validan entre sí. Sobre la base del pasado y el presente, las herramientas cuantitativas permiten encontrar relaciones entre variables y hacer proyecciones, sin embargo, estas metodologías pierden validez más allá de los tres a cuatro años, por los vertiginosos y dinámicos cambios que se producen actualmente, en las áreas política, social y económica. Las metodologías semi-cuantitativas y cualitativas, empleadas en forma conjunta e integradas, permiten el análisis de circunstancias del pasado y del presente, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que se pueden proyectar hacia un futuro cercano, los que integrados en estudios cualitativos proporcionan resultados a largo plazo, facilitando considerar variables cualitativas como la creciente preocupación por la preservación del medio ambiente y la piratería. La presente tesis, tiene como objetivo principal “identificar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores y determinar sus escenarios”. Para lo cual, la misma se estructura en fases consecutivas y que se retroalimentan continuamente. Las tres primeras fases son un enfoque sobre el pasado y el presente, que establece el problema a resolver. Se estudian los antecedentes y el estado del conocimiento en relación a los factores y circunstancias que motivaron y facilitaron la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques. También se estudia el estado del conocimiento de las metodologías para predecir el futuro y se diseña de una metodología prospectiva. La cuarta fase, denominada Resultados, se desarrolla en distintas etapas, fundamentadas en las fases anteriores, con el fin de resolver el problema dando respuestas a las preguntas que se formularon para alcanzar el objetivo fijado. En el proceso de esta fase, con el objeto de predecir probables futuros, se aplica la metodología prospectiva diseñada, que contempla el análisis del pasado y el presente, que determina los factores cuya influencia provocó el crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques hasta la actualidad, y que constituye la base para emplear los métodos prospectivos que permiten determinar qué factores condicionarán en el futuro la evolución de los grandes buques. El probable escenario futuro formado por los factores determinados por el criterio experto, es validado mediante un modelo cuantitativo dinámico, que además de obtener el probable escenario futuro basado en las tendencias de comportamiento hasta el presente de los factores determinantes considerados, permite estudiar distintos probables escenarios futuros en función de considerar un cambio en la tendencia futura de los factores determinantes. El análisis del pasado indica que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores hasta el presente, se ha motivado por un crecimiento económico mundial que se tradujo en un aumento del comercio internacional, particularmente entre los países de Asia, con Europa y Estados Unidos. Esta tendencia se ha visto favorecida por el factor globalización y la acelerada evolución tecnológica que ha permitido superar los obstáculos que se presentaron. Es de destacar que aún en periodos de crisis económicas, con pronósticos de contracciones en el comercio, en los últimos años continuó la tendencia al crecimiento en dimensiones, en busca de una economía de escala para el transporte marítimo de contenedores, en las rutas transoceánicas. La investigación de la evolución de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el futuro, se efectúa mediante el empleo de una metodología prospectiva en la que el criterio experto se valida con un método cuantitativo dinámico, y además se fundamenta en una solida base pre-prospectiva. La metodología diseñada permite evaluar con un alto grado de objetividad cuales serán los condicionantes que incidirán en el crecimiento en tamaño de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el escenario con mayor probabilidad de acontecer en los próximos veinte años (2032), y también en otros escenarios que podrían presentarse en el caso de que los factores modifiquen su tendencia o bien se produzcan hechos aleatorios. El resultado se sintetiza en que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores en los próximos 20 años se verá condicionada por factores en relación a los conceptos de oferta (los que facilitan u obstaculizan la tendencia), demanda (los que motivan o impulsan la tendencia) y factores externos (los que desestabilizan el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda). La tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores se verá obstaculizada / limitada principalmente por factores relacionados a las infraestructuras, resultando los pasos y/o canales vinculados a las rutas marítimas, los limitantes futuros al crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores; y la interacción buque / infraestructura (grúas) un factor que tenderá a obstaculizar esta tendencia de los grandes portacontenedores. El desarrollo económico mundial que estimula el comercio internacional y los factores precio del petróleo y condicionantes medioambientales impulsarán la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores. Recent years have seen a sustained tendency towards the growth in the dimensions of large container ships. This has meant that port and other infrastructure used for container traffic has had to be adapted in order to provide the required services and to maintain a competitive position, so as not to lose market share. This situation implies the need for major investments in modifications to the container transport system, on account of the large volume of traffic to be handled in a short period of time. This in turn has generated a need to make provision for the probable future evolution of the ultimate dimensions that will be reached by large container ships. Such considerations give rise to the question of what are the future determinants for the growth of large container ships, requiring an overall vision of all the factors that will apply in future years, whether as a brake on or an incentive to the growth tendency which has been seen in the past and present In view of the fact that the theme to be dealt with and resolved relates to the future, with a forecasting horizon of some 20 years, a foresight methodology has been designed and applied so as to enable conclusions about probable future scenarios to be reached with a greater degree of objectivity. The designed methodology contains different methodological tools, both qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative, which are internally consistent. On the basis of past and present observations, the quantitative elements enable relationships to be established and forecasts to be made. Nevertheless such an approach loses validity more than three or four years into the future, on account of the very rapid and dynamic changes which may be seen at present in political, social and economic spheres. The semi-quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used coherently together and allow the analysis of past and present conditions, thus obtaining quantitative results which for short-term projections, which when integrated with the qualitative studies provide results for the long-term, facilitating the consideration of qualitative variables such as the increasing importance of environmental protection and the impact of piracy. The principal objective of the present thesis is "to identify the future conditions affecting the growth of large container ships and to determine possible scenarios". The thesis is structured in consecutive and related phases. The first three phases focus on the past and present in order to determine the problem to be resolved. The background is studied in order to establish the state of knowledge about the factors and circumstances which have motivated and facilitated the growth tendency for large container ships and the methodologies that have been used. In this way a specific foresight methodology is designed. The fourth phase, Results, is developed in distinct stages based on the previous phases, so as to resolve the problem posed and responding to the questions that arise. In this way the determined objective is reached. The fourth phase sees the application of the methodology that has been designed in order to predict posible futures. This includes analysis of the past and present factors which have caused the growth in the dimensions of large container ships up to the present. These provide the basis on which to apply the foresight methods which enable the future factors which will condition the development of such large container ships. The probable future scenarios are made up of the factors identified by expert judgement (using the Delphi technique) and validated by means of a dynamic quantitative model. This model both identifies the probable future scenarios based on past and present factors and enables the different future scenarios to be analysed as a function of future changes in the conditioning factors. Analysis of the past shows that the growth tendency up to the present for large container ships has been motivated by the growth of the world economy and the consequent increased international trade, especially between the countries of Asia with Europe and the United States. This tendency has been favoured by the trend towards globalization and by the rapid technical evolution in ship design, which has allowed the obstacles encountered to be overcome. It should be noted that even in periods of economic crisis, with an expectation for reduced trade, as experienced in recent years, the tendency towards increased ship dimensions has continued in search of economies of scale for the maritime transport of containers on transoceanic routes. The present investigation of the future evolution of large container ships has been done using a foresight methodology in which the expert judgement is validated by a dynamic quantitative methodology, founded on a firm pre-foresight analysis. The methodology that has been designed permits the evaluation, with a high degree of objectivity, of the future factors that will affect the growth of large container ships for the most probable scenario expected in the next 20 years (up to 2032). The evaluation applies also to other scenarios which may arise, in the event that their component factors are modified or indeed in the light of random events. In summary, the conclusión is that the tendency for growth in large container ships in the future 20 years will be determined by: factors related to supply, which slow or halt the tendency; factors related to demand, which encourage the tendency and finally, external factors which interrupt the equilibrium between supply and demand. The tendency for increasing growth in large container ships will be limited or even halted by factors related to infrastructure, including the natural and man-made straits and canals used by maritime transport. In addition the infrastructure required to serve such vessels both in port (including cranes and other equipment) and related transport, will tend to slow the growth tendency. The factors which will continue to encourage the tendency towards the growth of large container ships include world economic development, which stimulates international trade, and an increasing emphasis on environmental aspects.