Una monografia inèdita de Gaziel sobre la premsa espanyola: context, comentari i edició

Text inèdit de Gaziel, prologat pel professor Manuel Llanas, que constitueix una monografia sobre la situació de la premsa diària espanyola. Es tracta d’una anàlisi històrica sobre el període comprès entre 1875 i 1942, amb una visió prospectiva final. L’autor divideix la periodització en tres fases: i) el passat (1874-1936); ii) el present, referit a la situació en la immediata postguerra; iii) el futur, on s’apunta una concepció normativa del periodisme. En cadascuna d’aquestes fases, la premsa és estudiada des de la dimensió política, professional, industrial i econòmica.

Russian Easter overture : op. 36

Soitinnus: ork.

Utilisation of biomass for energy production in the North-West Russian forest industry

Traditionally, fossil fuels have always been the major sources of the modern energy production. However prices on these energy sources have been constantly increasing. The utilization of local biomass resources for energy production can substitute significant part of the required energy demand in different energy sectors. The introduction of the biomass usage can easily be started in the forest industry first as it possesses biomass in a large volume. The forest industry energy sector has the highest potential for the fast bioenergy development in the North-West Russia. Therefore, the question concerning rational and effective forest resources use is important today as well as the utilization of the forestry by-products. This work describes and analyzes the opportunities of utilising biomass, mainly, in the form of the wood by-products, for energy production processes in general, as well as for the northwest Russian forest industry conditions. The study also covers basic forest industry processes and technologies, so, the reader can get familiar with the information about the specific character of the biomass utilization. The work gives a comprehensive view on the northwest forest industry situation from the biomass utilisation point of view. By presenting existing large-scale sawmills and pulp and paper mills the work provides information for the evaluation of the future development of CHP investments in the northwest Russian forest industry.

Prediction of individual automobile RBNS claim reserves in the context of Solvency II

Automobile bodily injury (BI) claims remain unsettled for a long time after the accident. The estimation of an accurate reserve for Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) claims is therefore vital for insurers. In accordance with the recommendation included in the Solvency II project (CEIOPS, 2007) a statistical model is here implemented for RBNS reserve estimation. Lognormality on empirical compensation cost data is observed for different levels of BI severity. The individual claim provision is estimated by allocating the expected mean compensation for the predicted severity of the victim’s injury, for which the upper bound is also computed. The BI severity is predicted by means of a heteroscedastic multiple choice model, because empirical evidence has found that the variability in the latent severity of injured individuals travelling by car is not constant. It is shown that this methodology can improve the accuracy of RBNS reserve estimation at all stages, as compared to the subjective assessment that has traditionally been made by practitioners.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from the Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

Venäjän sähkömarkkinareformi

Työn tarkoituksessa on luoda kokonaisvaltainen kuva Venäjän sähkösektorista ja siellä suoritettavasta reformista. Työ johdattelee lukijan aiheeseen kuvaamalla Venäjän sähkösektorin- ja markkinoiden tilaa ennen reformia. Tässä on tärkeää ymmärtää, kuinka kulutus ja tuotanto kohtasivat. Tämän jälkeen siirrytään selvittämään reformin syitä, suuntia ja päämääriä. Reformin kolme pääkohtaa ovat lainsäädännöllisen viitekehyksen luominen, sähkösektorin uudelleenjärjestely sekä uusien sähkömarkkinoiden kehittäminen ja täytäntöönpano. Uudelleenjärjestely on valtava prosessi, joka koskettaa koko Venäjän sähkömarkkinoita. Tämän prosessin keskeisenä tekijänä tosin on lähes monopoliasemaa nauttiva Unified Energy System of Russia. Tätä prosessia pyritään kuvaamaan alusta asti tähän päivään saakka. Toinen merkittävä prosessi on ollut uuden sähkömarkkinamallin kehittäminen ja tämän käyttöönotto. Työssä kuvataan tämän uuden mallin toimintaa ja rakennetta, ja työn loppupuolella pyritään selvittämään Venäjän sähkösektorin tulevaisuuden suunnitelmia, haasteita ja ennusteita.

Functional neuroanatomy of meaning acquisition from context

An important issue in language learning is how new words are integrated in the brain representations that sustain language processing. To identify the brain regions involved in meaning acquisition and word learning, we conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging study. Young participants were required to deduce the meaning of a novel word presented within increasingly constrained sentence contexts that were read silently during the scanning session. Inconsistent contexts were also presented in which no meaning could be assigned to the novel word. Participants showed meaning acquisition in the consistent but not in the inconsistent condition. A distributed brain network was identified comprising the left anterior inferior frontal gyrus (BA 45), the middle temporal gyrus (BA 21), the parahippocampal gyrus, and several subcortical structures (the thalamus and the striatum). Drawing on previous neuroimaging evidence, we tentatively identify the roles of these brain areas in the retrieval, selection, and encoding of the meaning.

Assessing functional relations in single-case designs: Quantitative proposals in the context of the evidence-based movement

In the context of the evidence-based practices movement, the emphasis on computing effect sizes and combining them via meta-analysis does not preclude the demonstration of functional relations. For the latter aim, we propose to augment the visual analysis to add consistency to the decisions made on the existence of a functional relation without losing sight of the need for a methodological evaluation of what stimuli and reinforcement or punishment are used to control the behavior. Four options for quantification are reviewed, illustrated, and tested with simulated data. These quantifications include comparing the projected baseline with the actual treatment measurements, on the basis of either parametric or nonparametric statistics. The simulated data used to test the quantifications include nine data patterns in terms of the presence and type of effect and comprising ABAB and multiple baseline designs. Although none of the techniques is completely flawless in terms of detecting a functional relation only when it is present but not when it is absent, an option based on projecting split-middle trend and considering data variability as in exploratory data analysis proves to be the best performer for most data patterns. We suggest that the information on whether a functional relation has been demonstrated should be included in meta-analyses. It is also possible to use as a weight the inverse of the data variability measure used in the quantification for assessing the functional relation. We offer an easy to use code for open-source software for implementing some of the quantifications.

Customer reference marketing in a business to business context

This study focuses on the phenomenon of customer reference marketing in a business tobusiness (B to B) context. Although customer references are generally considered an important marketing and sales tool, the academic literature has paid surprisingly little attention to the phenomenon. The study suggests that customer references could be viewed as important marketing assets for industrial suppliers, and the ability to build, manage and leverage customer reference portfolios systematically constitutes a relevant marketing capability. The role of customer references is examined in the context of the industrial suppliers' shift towards a solution and project orientation and in the light of the on going changes in the project business. Suppliers in several industry sectors are undergoing a change from traditional equipment manufacturing towards project and solution oriented business. It is argued in this thesis that the high complexity, the project oriented nature and the intangible service elements that characterise many contemporary B to B offerings further increase the role of customer references. The study proposes three mechanisms of customer reference marketing: status transfer, validation through testimonials and the demonstration of experience and prior performance. The study was conducted in the context of Finnish B to B process technology and information technology companies. The empirical data comprises 38 interviews with managers of four case companies, 165 customer reference descriptions gathered from six case companies' Web sites, as well as company internal material. The findings from the case studies show that customer references have various external and internal functions that contribute to the growth and performance of B to B firms. Externally, customer references bring status transfer effects from reputable customers, concretise and demonstrate complex solutions, and provide indirect evidence of experience, previous performance, technological functionality and delivered customer value. They can also be leveraged internally to facilitate organisational learning and training, advance offering development, and motivate personnel. Major reference projects create new business opportunities and can be used as a vehicle for strategic change. The findings of the study shed light on the on going changing orientations in the project business environment, increase understanding of the variety of ways in which customer references can be deployed as marketing assets, and provide a framework of the relevant tasks and activities related to building, managing and leveraging a firm's customer reference portfolio. The findings contribute to the industrial marketing research, to the literature on marketing assets and capabilities and to the literature on projects and solutions. The proposed functions and mechanisms of customer reference marketing bring a more thorough and structured understanding about the essence and characteristics of the phenomenon and give a wide ranging view of the role of customer references as marketing assets for B to B firms. The study suggests several managerial implications for industrial suppliers in order to systematise customer reference marketing efforts.

Bowing the violin : a case study for auditory-motor pattern modelling in the context of music performance

This project addresses methodological and technological challenges in the development of multi-modal data acquisition and analysis methods for the representation of instrumental playing technique in music performance through auditory-motor patterning models. The case study is violin playing: a multi-modal database of violin performances has been constructed by recording different musicians while playing short exercises on different violins. The exercise set and recording protocol have been designed to sample the space defined by dynamics (from piano to forte) and tone (from sul tasto to sul ponticello), for each bow stroke type being played on each of the four strings (three different pitches per string) at two different tempi. The data, containing audio, video, and motion capture streams, has been processed and segmented to facilitate upcoming analyses. From the acquired motion data, the positions of the instrument string ends and the bow hair ribbon ends are tracked and processed to obtain a number of bowing descriptors suited for a detailed description and analysis of the bow motion patterns taking place during performance. Likewise, a number of sound perceptual attributes are computed from the audio streams. Besides the methodology and the implementation of a number of data acquisition tools, this project introduces preliminary results from analyzing bowing technique on a multi-modal violin performance database that is unique in its class. A further contribution of this project is the data itself, which will be made available to the scientific community through the repovizz platform.

Development of Russian Ports in The Gulf of Finland

Russia has been one of the fastest developing economic areas in the world. Based on the GDP, the Russian economy grew evenly since the crisis in 1998 up till 2008. The growth in the gross domestic product has annually been some 5–10%. In 2007, the growth reached 8.1%, which is the highest figure after the 10% growth in 2000. Due to the growth of the economy and wage levels, purchasing power and consumption have been strongly increasing. The growing consumption has especially increased the imports of durables, such as passenger cars, domestic appliances and electronics. The Russian ports and infrastructure have not been able to satisfy the growing needs of exports and imports, which is why quite a large share of Russian foreign trade is going through third countries as transit transports. Finnish ports play a major role in transit transports to and from Russia. About 15% of the total value of Russian imports was transported through Finland in 2008. The economic recession that started in autumn 2008 and continues to date has had an impact on the economic development of Russia. The export income has decreased, mainly due to the reduced world market prices of energy products (oil and gas) and raw minerals. Investments have been postponed, getting credit is more difficult than before, and the ruble has weakened in relation to the euro and the dollar. The imports are decreasing remarkably, and are not forecast to reach the 2008 volumes even in 2012. The economic crisis is reflected in Finland's transit traffic. The volume of goods transported through Finland to and from Russia has decreased almost in the same proportion as the imports of goods to Russia. The biggest risk threatening the development of the Russian economy over long term is its dependence on export income from oil, gas, metals, minerals and forest products, as well as the trends of the world market prices of these products. Nevertheless, it is expected that the GDP of Russia will start to grow again in the forthcoming years due to the increased demand for energy products and raw minerals in the world. At the same time, it is obvious that the world market prices of these products will go up with the increasing demand. The increased income from exports will lead to a growth of imports, especially those of consumer goods, as the living standard of Russian citizens rises. The forecasts produced by the Russian Government concerning the economic development of Russia up till 2030 also indicate a shift in exported goods from raw materials to processed products, which together with energy products will become the main export goods of Russia. As a consequence, Russia may need export routes through third countries, which can be seen as an opportunity for increased transit transports through the ports of Finland. The ports competing with the ports of Finland for Russian foreign trade traffic are the Russian Baltic Sea ports and the ports of the Baltic countries. The strongest competitors are the Baltic Sea ports handling containers. On the Russian Baltic Sea, these ports include Saint Petersburg, Kaliningrad and, in the near future, the ports of Ust-Luga and possibly Vyborg. There are plans to develop Ust-Luga and Vyborg as modern container ports, which would become serious competitors to the Finnish ports. Russia is aiming to redirect as large a share as possible of foreign trade traffic to its own ports. The ports of Russia and the infrastructure associated with them are under constant development. On the other hand, the logistic capacity of Russia is not able to satisfy the continually growing needs of the Russian foreign trade. The capacity problem is emphasized by a structural incompatibility between the exports and imports in the Russian foreign trade. Russian exports can only use a small part of the containers brought in with imports. Problems are also caused by the difficult ice conditions and narrow waterways leading to the ports. It is predicted that Finland will maintain its position as a transit route for the Russian foreign trade, at least in the near future. The Russian foreign trade is increasing, and Russia will not be able to develop its ports in proportion with the increasing foreign trade. With the development of port capacity, cargo flows through the ports of Russia will grow. Structural changes in transit traffic are already visible. Firms are more and more relocating their production to Russia, for example as regards the assembly of cars and warehousing services. Simultaneously, an increasing part of transit cargoes are sent directly to Russia without unloading and reloading in Finland. New product groups have nevertheless been transported through Finland (textile products and tools), replacing the lost cargos. The global recession that started in autumn 2008 has influenced the volume of Russian imports and, consequently, the transit volumes of Finland, but the recession is not expected to be of long duration, and will thus only have a short-term impact on transit volumes. The Finnish infrastructure and services offered by the logistic chain should also be ready to react to the changes in imported product groups as well as to the change in Russian export products in the future. If the development plans of the Russian economy are realized, export products will be more refined, and the share of energy and raw material products will decrease. The other notable factor to be taken into consideration is the extremely fast-changing business environment in Russia. Operators in the logistic chain should be flexible enough to adapt to all kinds of changes to capitalise on business opportunities offered by the Russian foreign trade for the companies and for the transit volumes of Finnish ports, also in the future.