Predicting random level and seasonality of hotel prices. A structural equation growth curve approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment, under the hedonic function perspective. Monthly prices of the majority of hotels in the Spanish continental Mediterranean coast are gathered from May to October 1999 from the tour operator catalogues. Hedonic functions are specified as random-effect models and parametrized as structural equation models with two latent variables, a random peak season price and a random width of seasonal fluctuations. Characteristics of the hotel and the region where they are located are used as predictors of both latent variables. Besides hotel category, region, distance to the beach, availability of parking place and room equipment have an effect on peak price and also on seasonality. 3- star hotels have the highest seasonality and hotels located in the southern regions the lowest, which could be explained by a warmer climate in autumn

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: The Finite Horizon Case

We analyze a finite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to find an inventory policy and a pricing strategy maximizing expected profit over the finite horizon. We show that when the demand model is additive, the profit-to-go functions are k-concave and hence an (s,S,p) policy is optimal. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period. For more general demand functions, i.e., multiplicative plus additive functions, we demonstrate that the profit-to-go function is not necessarily k-concave and an (s,S,p) policy is not necessarily optimal. We introduce a new concept, the symmetric k-concave functions and apply it to provide a characterization of the optimal policy.

Coordinating Inventory Control and Pricing Strategies with Random Demand and Fixed Ordering Cost: the Infinite Horizon Case

We analyze an infinite horizon, single product, periodic review model in which pricing and production/inventory decisions are made simultaneously. Demands in different periods are identically distributed random variables that are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product price. Pricing and ordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortages are backlogged. Ordering cost includes both a fixed cost and a variable cost proportional to the amount ordered. The objective is to maximize expected discounted, or expected average profit over the infinite planning horizon. We show that a stationary (s,S,p) policy is optimal for both the discounted and average profit models with general demand functions. In such a policy, the period inventory is managed based on the classical (s,S) policy and price is determined based on the inventory position at the beginning of each period.

Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristics in a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When the goal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style and not to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors is larger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author. For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for example Mosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) or Lebart, Salem and Berry (1998). Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be “the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writters like Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translated several times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal (1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465, but it was not printed until 1490. There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition, where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while at the end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death of Martorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990), Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer (1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990). Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and therefore discriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample texts encompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44 conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that might indicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba and Ginebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383. Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the most frequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the features selected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore to three sequences of multinomial observations. Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3 describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the following sections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the method in section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma models onto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, the one in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of the correspondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the average word length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify the features that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavily on the use of generalized linear models

Quantifying rock fabrics: a test of autocorrelation of the spatial distribution of cristals

A novel test of spatial independence of the distribution of crystals or phases in rocks based on compositional statistics is introduced. It improves and generalizes the common joins-count statistics known from map analysis in geographic information systems. Assigning phases independently to objects in RD is modelled by a single-trial multinomial random function Z(x), where the probabilities of phases add to one and are explicitly modelled as compositions in the K-part simplex SK. Thus, apparent inconsistencies of the tests based on the conventional joins{count statistics and their possibly contradictory interpretations are avoided. In practical applications we assume that the probabilities of phases do not depend on the location but are identical everywhere in the domain of de nition. Thus, the model involves the sum of r independent identical multinomial distributed 1-trial random variables which is an r-trial multinomial distributed random variable. The probabilities of the distribution of the r counts can be considered as a composition in the Q-part simplex SQ. They span the so called Hardy-Weinberg manifold H that is proved to be a K-1-affine subspace of SQ. This is a generalisation of the well-known Hardy-Weinberg law of genetics. If the assignment of phases accounts for some kind of spatial dependence, then the r-trial probabilities do not remain on H. This suggests the use of the Aitchison distance between observed probabilities to H to test dependence. Moreover, when there is a spatial uctuation of the multinomial probabilities, the observed r-trial probabilities move on H. This shift can be used as to check for these uctuations. A practical procedure and an algorithm to perform the test have been developed. Some cases applied to simulated and real data are presented. Key words: Spatial distribution of crystals in rocks, spatial distribution of phases, joins-count statistics, multinomial distribution, Hardy-Weinberg law, Hardy-Weinberg manifold, Aitchison geometry

Time-delayed fronts from biased random walks

We generalize a previous model of time-delayed reaction–diffusion fronts (Fort and Méndez 1999 Phys. Rev. Lett. 82 867) to allow for a bias in the microscopic random walk of particles or individuals. We also present a second model which takes the time order of events (diffusion and reproduction) into account. As an example, we apply them to the human invasion front across the USA in the 19th century. The corrections relative to the previous model are substantial. Our results are relevant to physical and biological systems with anisotropic fronts, including particle diffusion in disordered lattices, population invasions, the spread of epidemics, etc

Fast calculation of the CAC convolution algorithm using the multinomial distribution function

The authors focus on one of the methods for connection acceptance control (CAC) in an ATM network: the convolution approach. With the aim of reducing the cost in terms of calculation and storage requirements, they propose the use of the multinomial distribution function. This permits direct computation of the associated probabilities of the instantaneous bandwidth requirements. This in turn makes possible a simple deconvolution process. Moreover, under certain conditions additional improvements may be achieved

Effect of arousal increase in predictable and random task switching : Evidence for the involvement of the anterior attentional network in random but not in predictable task switching

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TU Graz: Course: 707.000 Web Science and Web Technology: Lecture 3: Network Theory and Terminology

In this class, we will discuss network theory fundamentals, including concepts such as diameter, distance, clustering coefficient and others. We will also discuss different types of networks, such as scale-free networks, random networks etc. Readings: Graph structure in the Web, A. Broder and R. Kumar and F. Maghoul and P. Raghavan and S. Rajagopalan and R. Stata and A. Tomkins and J. Wiener Computer Networks 33 309--320 (2000) [Web link, Alternative Link] Optional: The Structure and Function of Complex Networks, M.E.J. Newman, SIAM Review 45 167--256 (2003) [Web link] Original course at: http://kmi.tugraz.at/staff/markus/courses/SS2008/707.000_web-science/

De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).

The Role of Kinaesthetic Motor Imagery in Promoting Activation of the Lumbrical Muscles in the Hemiparetic Hand: a Randomised Controlled Study

The objective of the investigation who gave as result this work was to investigate the effectiveness of kinaesthetic motor imagery in the activation of the hemiplegic hand muscles following stroke. The experiment consisted of two random groups. Movements were measured after treatment. The participants were ten patients with hemiplegic hands (men who mean age was 74.4 years; mean time since stroke 3.05 months). All patients received three sessions of physical treatment based on an identical treatment protocol. Five patients were randomly assigned to an experimental group practising kinaesthetic motor imagery of a grasp using the 'lumbrical action' (experimental group). The others five (control group) followed a relaxation script. All the patients were then asked to grasp an object using the 'lumbrical action'. The grasps were recorded using an optoelectronic motion capture system. The magnitude of the extension of the index finger and the correlation of the angular displacement of the proximal phalangeal joints and the metacarpophalangeal joints were calculated. The movement time for the whole grip was calculated. The experimental group demonstrated higher extension in the index finger (p = < 0.01) and they had a higher correlation coefficient (0.99) than the control group (0.77) for the displacement of the proximal interphalangeal joint and the metacarpophalangeal joints. The movement time for the experimental group was faster, although the difference was not significant.

Determinantes del estado de salud en Colombia y su impacto según área urbana y rural comparación entre 1997 y 2003

Este trabajo avanza en la identificación de los determinantes del estado de salud distinguiendo su impacto entre el área urbana y rural, y comparándolo entre 1997 y2003 después de la mayor recesión económica que Colombia haya experimentado.

Ecuaciones diferenciales estocásticas con condición final y soluciones de viscosidad de EDPS semilineales de segundo orden

El objetivo de este documento es recopilar algunos resultados clasicos sobre existencia y unicidad ´ de soluciones de ecuaciones diferenciales estocasticas (EDEs) con condici ´ on final (en ingl ´ es´ Backward stochastic differential equations) con particular enfasis en el caso de coeficientes mon ´ otonos, y su cone- ´ xion con soluciones de viscosidad de sistemas de ecuaciones diferenciales parciales (EDPs) parab ´ olicas ´ y el´ıpticas semilineales de segundo orden.

Branching random motions, nonlinear hyperbolic systems and traveling waves

A branching random motion on a line, with abrupt changes of direction, is studied. The branching mechanism, being independient of random motion, and intensities of reverses are defined by a particle's current direction. A soluton of a certain hyperbolic system of coupled non-linear equations (Kolmogorov type backward equation) have a so-called McKean representation via such processes. Commonly this system possesses traveling-wave solutions. The convergence of solutions with Heaviside terminal data to the travelling waves is discussed.This Paper realizes the McKean programme for the Kolmogorov-Petrovskii-Piskunov equation in this case. The Feynman-Kac formula plays a key role.

Movilidad ocupacional de los inmigrantes en España.

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