Statistical learning theory for geospatial data. Case study: Aral sea

In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).

Chemical labelling of oyster shells used for time-calibrated high-resolution Mg/Ca ratios: A tool for estimation of past seasonal temperature variations

The geochemical compositions of biogenic carbonates are increasingly used for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions. The skeletal delta O-18 temperature relationship is dependent on water salinity, so many recent studies have focused on the Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios because those ratios in water do not change significantly on short time scales. Thus, those elemental ratios are considered to be good palaeotemperature proxies in many biominerals, although their use remains ambiguous in bivalve shells. Here, we present the high-resolution Mg/Ca ratios of two modern species of juvenile and adult oyster shells, Crassostrea gigas and Ostrea edulis. These specimens were grown in controlled conditions for over one year in two different locations. In situ monthly Mn-marking of the shells has been used for day calibration. The daily Mg/Ca.ratios in the shell have been measured with an electron microprobe. The high frequency Mg/Ca variation of all specimens displays good synchronism with lunar cycles, suggesting that tides strongly influence the incorporation of Mg/Ca into the shells. Highly significant correlation coefficients (0.70<R<0.83, p<0.0001) between the Mg/Ca ratios and the seawater temperature are obtained only for juvenile C. gigas samples, while metabolic control of Mg/Ca incorporation and lower shell growth rates preclude the use of the Mg/Ca ratio in adult shells as a palaeothermometer. Data from three juvenile C. gigas shells from the two study sites are selected to establish a relationship: T = 3.77Mg/Ca + 1.88, where T is in degrees C and Mg/Ca in mmol/mol. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of surface roughness in a semiarid region from C-band ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar data

In this study, we investigated the feasibility of using the C-band European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to estimate surface soil roughness in a semiarid rangeland. Radar backscattering coefficients were extracted from a dry and a wet season SAR image and were compared with 47 in situ soil roughness measurements obtained in the rocky soils of the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, southeastern Arizona, USA. Both the dry and the wet season SAR data showed exponential relationships with root mean square (RMS) height measurements. The dry C-band ERS-1 SAR data were strongly correlated (R² = 0.80), while the wet season SAR data have somewhat higher secondary variation (R² = 0.59). This lower correlation was probably provoked by the stronger influence of soil moisture, which may not be negligible in the wet season SAR data. We concluded that the single configuration C-band SAR data is useful to estimate surface roughness of rocky soils in a semiarid rangeland.

Maximum-likelihood estimation of specific differential phase and attenuation in rain

Precise estimation of propagation parameters inprecipitation media is of interest to improve the performanceof communications systems and in remote sensing applications.In this paper, we present maximum-likelihood estimators ofspecific attenuation and specific differential phase in rain. Themodel used for obtaining the cited estimators assumes coherentpropagation, reflection symmetry of the medium, and Gaussianstatistics of the scattering matrix measurements. No assumptionsabout the microphysical properties of the medium are needed.The performance of the estimators is evaluated through simulateddata. Results show negligible estimators bias and variances closeto Cramer–Rao bounds.

Estimation of percentage body fat in 6- to 13-year-old children by skinfold thickness, body mass index and waist circumference.

We evaluated the accuracy of skinfold thicknesses, BMI and waist circumference for the prediction of percentage body fat (PBF) in a representative sample of 372 Swiss children aged 6-13 years. PBF was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. On the basis of a preliminary bootstrap selection of predictors, seven regression models were evaluated. All models included sex, age and pubertal stage plus one of the following predictors: (1) log-transformed triceps skinfold (logTSF); (2) logTSF and waist circumference; (3) log-transformed sum of triceps and subscapular skinfolds (logSF2); (4) log-transformed sum of triceps, biceps, subscapular and supra-iliac skinfolds (logSF4); (5) BMI; (6) waist circumference; (7) BMI and waist circumference. The adjusted determination coefficient (R² adj) and the root mean squared error (RMSE; kg) were calculated for each model. LogSF4 (R² adj 0.85; RMSE 2.35) and logSF2 (R² adj 0.82; RMSE 2.54) were similarly accurate at predicting PBF and superior to logTSF (R² adj 0.75; RMSE 3.02), logTSF combined with waist circumference (R² adj 0.78; RMSE 2.85), BMI (R² adj 0.62; RMSE 3.73), waist circumference (R² adj 0.58; RMSE 3.89), and BMI combined with waist circumference (R² adj 0.63; RMSE 3.66) (P < 0.001 for all values of R² adj). The finding that logSF4 was only modestly superior to logSF2 and that logTSF was better than BMI and waist circumference at predicting PBF has important implications for paediatric epidemiological studies aimed at disentangling the effect of body fat on health outcomes.

Nets: Network estimation for time series

This work proposes novel network analysis techniques for multivariate time series.We define the network of a multivariate time series as a graph where verticesdenote the components of the process and edges denote non zero long run partialcorrelations. We then introduce a two step LASSO procedure, called NETS, toestimate high dimensional sparse Long Run Partial Correlation networks. This approachis based on a VAR approximation of the process and allows to decomposethe long run linkages into the contribution of the dynamic and contemporaneousdependence relations of the system. The large sample properties of the estimatorare analysed and we establish conditions for consistent selection and estimation ofthe non zero long run partial correlations. The methodology is illustrated with anapplication to a panel of U.S. bluechips.

Comparison of the interobserver variability of 2 different methods of dietary assessment in a geriatric ward: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Protein-energy malnutrition is highly prevalent in aged populations. Associated clinical, economic, and social burden is important. A valid screening method that would be robust and precise, but also easy, simple, and rapid to apply, is essential for adequate therapeutic management. OBJECTIVES: To compare the interobserver variability of 2 methods measuring food intake: semiquantitative visual estimations made by nurses versus calorie measurements performed by dieticians on the basis of standardized color digital photographs of servings before and after consumption. DESIGN: Observational monocentric pilot study. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: A geriatric ward. The meals were randomly chosen from the meal tray. The choice was anonymous with respect to the patients who consumed them. MEASUREMENTS: The test method consisted of the estimation of calorie consumption by dieticians on the basis of standardized color digital photographs of servings before and after consumption. The reference method was based on direct visual estimations of the meals by nurses. Food intake was expressed in the form of a percentage of the serving consumed and calorie intake was then calculated by a dietician based on these percentages. The methods were applied with no previous training of the observers. Analysis of variance was performed to compare their interobserver variability. RESULTS: Of 15 meals consumed and initially examined, 6 were assessed with each method. Servings not consumed at all (0% consumption) or entirely consumed by the patient (100% consumption) were not included in the analysis so as to avoid systematic error. The digital photography method showed higher interobserver variability in calorie intake estimations. The difference between the compared methods was statistically significant (P < .03). CONCLUSIONS: Calorie intake measures for geriatric patients are more concordant when estimated in a semiquantitative way. Digital photography for food intake estimation without previous specific training of dieticians should not be considered as a reference method in geriatric settings, as it shows no advantages in terms of interobserver variability.

Steady-state equilibrium phase inversion recovery ON-resonant water suppression (IRON) MR angiography in conjunction with superparamagnetic nanoparticles. A robust technique for imaging within a wide range of contrast agent dosages.

PURPOSE: To investigate the ability of inversion recovery ON-resonant water suppression (IRON) in conjunction with P904 (superparamagnetic nanoparticles which consisting of a maghemite core coated with a low-molecular-weight amino-alcohol derivative of glucose) to perform steady-state equilibrium phase MR angiography (MRA) over a wide dose range. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Experiments were approved by the institutional animal care committee. Rabbits (n = 12) were imaged at baseline and serially after the administration of 10 incremental dosages of 0.57-5.7 mgFe/Kg P904. Conventional T1-weighted and IRON MRA were obtained on a clinical 1.5 Tesla (T) scanner to image the thoracic and abdominal aorta, and peripheral vessels. Contrast-to-noise ratios (CNR) and vessel sharpness were quantified. RESULTS: Using IRON MRA, CNR and vessel sharpness progressively increased with incremental dosages of the contrast agent P904, exhibiting constantly higher contrast values than T1 -weighted MRA over a very wide range of contrast agent doses (CNR of 18.8 ± 5.6 for IRON versus 11.1 ± 2.8 for T1 -weighted MRA at 1.71 mgFe/kg, P = 0.02 and 19.8 ± 5.9 for IRON versus -0.8 ± 1.4 for T1-weighted MRA at 3.99 mgFe/kg, P = 0.0002). Similar results were obtained for vessel sharpness in peripheral vessels, (Vessel sharpness of 46.76 ± 6.48% for IRON versus 33.20 ± 3.53% for T1-weighted MRA at 1.71 mgFe/Kg, P = 0.002, and of 48.66 ± 5.50% for IRON versus 19.00 ± 7.41% for T1-weighted MRA at 3.99 mgFe/Kg, P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that quantitative CNR and vessel sharpness after the injection of P904 are consistently higher for IRON MRA when compared with conventional T1-weighted MRA. These findings apply for a wide range of contrast agent dosages.

Trinocular System for 3D motion and Dense Stucture Estimation

The relief of the seafloor is an important source of data for many scientists. In this paper we present an optical system to deal with underwater 3D reconstruction. This system is formed by three cameras that take images synchronously in a constant frame rate scheme. We use the images taken by these cameras to compute dense 3D reconstructions. We use Bundle Adjustment to estimate the motion ofthe trinocular rig. Given the path followed by the system, we get a dense map of the observed scene by registering the different dense local reconstructions in a unique and bigger one

Estimation of the extreme flash flood evolution in Barcelona county from 1351 to 2005

Every year, flash floods cause economic losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in the Catalonia region (NE Spain). Sometimes catastrophic damage and casualties occur. When a long term analysis of floods is undertaken, a question arises regarding the changing role of the vulnerability and the hazard in risk evolution. This paper sets out to give some information to deal with this question, on the basis of analysis of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona county (Catalonia) since the 14th century, as well as the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. With this objective, the identification and classification of historical floods, and characterisation of flash-floods among these, have been undertaken. Besides this, the main meteorological factors associated with recent flash floods in this city and neighbouring regions are well-known. On the other hand, the identification of rainfall trends that could explain the historical evolution of flood hazard occurrence in this city has been analysed. Finally, identification of the influence of urban development on the vulnerability to floods has been carried out. Barcelona city has been selected thanks to its long continuous data series (daily rainfall data series, since 1854; one of the longest rainfall rate series of Europe, since 1921) and for the accurate historical archive information that is available (since the Roman Empire for the urban evolution). The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern-age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850¿1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854¿2000) shows that no trend exists, although, due to changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has altered over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

Heel and toe clearance estimation for gait analysis using wireless inertial sensors.

Tripping is considered a major cause of fall in older people. Therefore, foot clearance (i.e., height of the foot above ground during swing phase) could be a key factor to better understand the complex relationship between gait and falls. This paper presents a new method to estimate clearance using a foot-worn and wireless inertial sensor system. The method relies on the computation of foot orientation and trajectory from sensors signal data fusion, combined with the temporal detection of toe-off and heel-strike events. Based on a kinematic model that automatically estimates sensor position relative to the foot, heel and toe trajectories are estimated. 2-D and 3-D models are presented with different solving approaches, and validated against an optical motion capture system on 12 healthy adults performing short walking trials at self-selected, slow, and fast speed. Parameters corresponding to local minimum and maximum of heel and toe clearance were extracted and showed accuracy ± precision of 4.1 ± 2.3 cm for maximal heel clearance and 1.3 ± 0.9 cm for minimal toe clearance compared to the reference. The system is lightweight, wireless, easy to wear and to use, and provide a new and useful tool for routine clinical assessment of gait outside a dedicated laboratory.

Improving QPF by blending techniques at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia

The current operational very short-term and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC) is made by three different methodologies: Advection of the radar reflectivity field (ADV), Identification, tracking and forecasting of convective structures (CST) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models using observational data assimilation (radar, satellite, etc.). These precipitation forecasts have different characteristics, lead time and spatial resolutions. The objective of this study is to combine these methods in order to obtain a single and optimized QPF at each lead time. This combination (blending) of the radar forecast (ADV and CST) and precipitation forecast from NWP model is carried out by means of different methodologies according to the prediction horizon. Firstly, in order to take advantage of the rainfall location and intensity from radar observations, a phase correction technique is applied to the NWP output to derive an additional corrected forecast (MCO). To select the best precipitation estimation in the first and second hour (t+1 h and t+2 h), the information from radar advection (ADV) and the corrected outputs from the model (MCO) are mixed by using different weights, which vary dynamically, according to indexes that quantify the quality of these predictions. This procedure has the ability to integrate the skill of rainfall location and patterns that are given by the advection of radar reflectivity field with the capacity of generating new precipitation areas from the NWP models. From the third hour (t+3 h), as radar-based forecasting has generally low skills, only the quantitative precipitation forecast from model is used. This blending of different sources of prediction is verified for different types of episodes (convective, moderately convective and stratiform) to obtain a robust methodology for implementing it in an operational and dynamic way.

Robust volume-targeted balanced steady-state free-precession coronary magnetic resonance angiography in a breathhold at 3.0 Tesla: a reproducibility study.

BACKGROUND: Transient balanced steady-state free-precession (bSSFP) has shown substantial promise for noninvasive assessment of coronary arteries but its utilization at 3.0 T and above has been hampered by susceptibility to field inhomogeneities that degrade image quality. The purpose of this work was to refine, implement, and test a robust, practical single-breathhold bSSFP coronary MRA sequence at 3.0 T and to test the reproducibility of the technique. METHODS: A 3D, volume-targeted, high-resolution bSSFP sequence was implemented. Localized image-based shimming was performed to minimize inhomogeneities of both the static magnetic field and the radio frequency excitation field. Fifteen healthy volunteers and three patients with coronary artery disease underwent examination with the bSSFP sequence (scan time = 20.5 ± 2.0 seconds), and acquisitions were repeated in nine subjects. The images were quantitatively analyzed using a semi-automated software tool, and the repeatability and reproducibility of measurements were determined using regression analysis and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), in a blinded manner. RESULTS: The 3D bSSFP sequence provided uniform, high-quality depiction of coronary arteries (n = 20). The average visible vessel length of 100.5 ± 6.3 mm and sharpness of 55 ± 2% compared favorably with earlier reported navigator-gated bSSFP and gradient echo sequences at 3.0 T. Length measurements demonstrated a highly statistically significant degree of inter-observer (r = 0.994, ICC = 0.993), intra-observer (r = 0.894, ICC = 0.896), and inter-scan concordance (r = 0.980, ICC = 0.974). Furthermore, ICC values demonstrated excellent intra-observer, inter-observer, and inter-scan agreement for vessel diameter measurements (ICC = 0.987, 0.976, and 0.961, respectively), and vessel sharpness values (ICC = 0.989, 0.938, and 0.904, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The 3D bSSFP acquisition, using a state-of-the-art MR scanner equipped with recently available technologies such as multi-transmit, 32-channel cardiac coil, and localized B0 and B1+ shimming, allows accelerated and reproducible multi-segment assessment of the major coronary arteries at 3.0 T in a single breathhold. This rapid sequence may be especially useful for functional imaging of the coronaries where the acquisition time is limited by the stress duration and in cases where low navigator-gating efficiency prohibits acquisition of a free breathing scan in a reasonable time period.