Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models

A wide range of modelling algorithms is used by ecologists, conservation practitioners, and others to predict species ranges from point locality data. Unfortunately, the amount of data available is limited for many taxa and regions, making it essential to quantify the sensitivity of these algorithms to sample size. This is the first study to address this need by rigorously evaluating a broad suite of algorithms with independent presence-absence data from multiple species and regions. We evaluated predictions from 12 algorithms for 46 species (from six different regions of the world) at three sample sizes (100, 30, and 10 records). We used data from natural history collections to run the models, and evaluated the quality of model predictions with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). With decreasing sample size, model accuracy decreased and variability increased across species and between models. Novel modelling methods that incorporate both interactions between predictor variables and complex response shapes (i.e. GBM, MARS-INT, BRUTO) performed better than most methods at large sample sizes but not at the smallest sample sizes. Other algorithms were much less sensitive to sample size, including an algorithm based on maximum entropy (MAXENT) that had among the best predictive power across all sample sizes. Relative to other algorithms, a distance metric algorithm (DOMAIN) and a genetic algorithm (OM-GARP) had intermediate performance at the largest sample size and among the best performance at the lowest sample size. No algorithm predicted consistently well with small sample size (n < 30) and this should encourage highly conservative use of predictions based on small sample size and restrict their use to exploratory modelling.

High-growth firms and innovation: an empirical analysis for Spanish firms

This paper analyses the effect of R&D investment on firm growth. We use an extensive sample of Spanish manufacturing and service firms. The database comprises diverse waves of Spanish Community Innovation Survey and covers the period 2004–2008. First, a probit model corrected for sample selection analyses the role of innovation on the probability of being a high-growth firm (HGF). Second, a quantile regression technique is applied to explore the determinants of firm growth. Our database shows that a small number of firms experience fast growth rates in terms of sales or employees. Our results reveal that R&D investments positively affect the probability of becoming a HGF. However, differences appear between manufacturing and service firms. Finally, when we study the impact of R&D investment on firm growth, quantile estimations show that internal R&D presents a significant positive impact for the upper quantiles, while external R&D shows a significant positive impact up to the median. Keywords : High-growth firms, Firm growth, Innovation activity. JEL Classifications : L11, L25, L26, O30

Investigation of resins suitable for the preparation of biological sample for 3-D electron microscopy.

In the last two decades, the third-dimension has become a focus of attention in electron microscopy to better understand the interactions within subcellular compartments. Initially, transmission electron tomography (TEM tomography) was introduced to image the cell volume in semi-thin sections (∼500nm). With the introduction of the focused ion beam scanning electron microscope, a new tool, FIB-SEM tomography, became available to image much larger volumes. During TEM tomography and FIB-SEM tomography, the resin section is exposed to a high electron/ion dose such that the stability of the resin embedded biological sample becomes an important issue. The shrinkage of a resin section in each dimension, especially in depth, is a well-known phenomenon. To ensure the dimensional integrity of the final volume of the cell, it is important to assess the properties of the different resins and determine the formulation which has the best stability in the electron/ion beam. Here, eight different resin formulations were examined. The effects of radiation damage were evaluated after different times of TEM irradiation. To get additional information on mass-loss and the physical properties of the resins (stiffness and adhesion), the topography of the irradiated areas was analysed with atomic force microscopy (AFM). Further, the behaviour of the resins was analysed after ion milling of the surface of the sample with different ion currents. In conclusion, two resin formulations, Hard Plus and the mixture of Durcupan/Epon, emerged that were considerably less affected and reasonably stable in the electron/ion beam and thus suitable for the 3-D investigation of biological samples.

Gender-related psychological and behavioural correlates of pubertal timing in a national sample of Swiss adolescents.

The potential consequences of early and late puberty on the psychological and behavioural development of the adolescent are not well known. This paper presents focused analyses from the Swiss SMASH study, a self-administered questionnaire survey conducted among a representative sample of 7488 adolescents from 16 to 20 years old. Data from participants reporting early or late timing of puberty were compared with those reporting average timing of maturation. Early maturing girls reported a higher rate of dissatisfaction with body image (OR=1.32) and functional symptoms (OR=1.52) and reported engaging in sexual activity more often (OR=1.93). Early maturing boys reported engaging in exploratory behaviours (sexual intercourse, legal and illegal substance use) at a significantly higher rate (OR varying between 1.4 and 1.99). Both early and late maturing boys reported higher rates of dysfunctional eating patterns (OR=1.59 and 1.38, respectively), victimisation (OR=1.61 and 1.37, respectively) and depressive symptoms (OR=2.11 and 1.53, respectively). Clinicians should take into account the pubertal stage of their patients and provide them, as well as their parents, with appropriate counselling in the field of mental health and health behaviour.

Disparities in work, risk and health between immigrants and native-born Spaniards

We analyse the impact of working and contractual conditions, particularly exposure to job risks, on the probability of acquiring a permanent disability, controlling for other personal and firm characteristics. We postulate a model in which this impact is mediated by the choice of occupation, with a level of risk associated with it. We assume this choice is endogenous, and that it depends on preferences and opportunities in the labour market, both of which may differ between immigrants and natives. To test this hypothesis we apply a bivariate probit model to data for 2006 from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives provided by the Spanish Social Security system, containing records for over a million workers. We find that risk exposure increases the probability of permanent disability arising from any cause - by almost 5%.

Determinants of science-based cooperation: evidence in a sample of small and micro firms

We study the determining factors of cience-based cooperation in the case of small and micro firms. In this research, we propose an analytical framework based on the resource-based view of the firm and we identify a set of organisational characteristics, which we classify as internal, external and structural factors. Each factor can be linked to at least one reason, from the firm¿s point of view, to cooperate with universities and public research centres. Each reason can, in turn, be used as an indicator of a firm¿s organisational needs or organisational capacities. In order to validate the theoretical model, we estimate a logistic regression that models the propensity to participate in science-based cooperation activities within a sample of 285 small and micro firms located in Barcelona. The results show the key role played by the absorptive capacity of new and small companies.

Defining risk thresholds for a 10-year probability of hip fracture model that combines clinical risk factors and quantitative ultrasound: results using the EPISEM cohort.

Using a large prospective cohort of over 12,000 women, we determined 2 thresholds (high risk and low risk of hip fracture) to use in a 10-yr hip fracture probability model that we had previously described, a model combining the heel stiffness index measured by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) and a set of easily determined clinical risk factors (CRFs). The model identified a higher percentage of women with fractures as high risk than a previously reported risk score that combined QUS and CRF. In addition, it categorized women in a way that was quite consistent with the categorization that occurred using dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) classification system; the 2 methods identified similar percentages of women with and without fractures in each of their 3 categories, but the 2 identified only in part the same women. Nevertheless, combining our composite probability model with DXA in a case findings strategy will likely further improve the detection of women at high risk of fragility hip fracture. We conclude that the currently proposed model may be of some use as an alternative to the WHO classification criteria for osteoporosis, at least when access to DXA is limited.

Exploring the use of mobile communications in a sample of older people: Preliminary results of a case study in Los Angeles

This paper introduces a qualitative case study on mobile communication among the older population (60+ years old) conducted in Great Los Angeles (CA, USA) in autumn 2011. Methodology, fieldwork and preliminary results are discussed.Before, country-level data is presented to better understand the specific characteristics of the studied individuals. The section focus is on demographics and on acceptance and use of information and communication technologies (ICT).Preliminary results show that within the sample under study (20 individuals) there is a high number of mobile phone users (15) while among non-mobile users (5), three of them decide to stop using this technology. A majority of mobile phone adopters describe a very limited use of the device for everyday life communications. Finally,while Internet is really popular within the sample (14 users), just 3 individuals go online through their mobile telephone.

Development of a cross-European virtual sample repository and HIV resistance database

BACKGROUND: Several European HIV observational data bases have, over the last decade, accumulated a substantial number of resistance test results and developed large sample repositories, There is a need to link these efforts together, We here describe the development of such a novel tool that allows to bind these data bases together in a distributed fashion for which the control and data remains with the cohorts rather than classic data mergers.METHODS: As proof-of-concept we entered two basic queries into the tool: available resistance tests and available samples. We asked for patients still alive after 1998-01-01, and between 180 and 195 cm of height, and how many samples or resistance tests there would be available for these patients, The queries were uploaded with the tool to a central web server from which each participating cohort downloaded the queries with the tool and ran them against their database, The numbers gathered were then submitted back to the server and we could accumulate the number of available samples and resistance tests.RESULTS: We obtained the following results from the cohorts on available samples/resistance test: EuResist: not availableI11,194; EuroSIDA: 20,71611,992; ICONA: 3,751/500; Rega: 302/302; SHCS: 53,78311,485, In total, 78,552 samples and 15,473 resistance tests were available amongst these five cohorts. Once these data items have been identified, it is trivial to generate lists of relevant samples that would be usefuI for ultra deep sequencing in addition to the already available resistance tests, Saon the tool will include small analysis packages that allow each cohort to pull a report on their cohort profile and also survey emerging resistance trends in their own cohort,CONCLUSIONS: We plan on providing this tool to all cohorts within the Collaborative HIV and Anti-HIV Drug Resistance Network (CHAIN) and will provide the tool free of charge to others for any non-commercial use, The potential of this tool is to ease collaborations, that is, in projects requiring data to speed up identification of novel resistance mutations by increasing the number of observations across multiple cohorts instead of awaiting single cohorts or studies to reach the critical number needed to address such issues.

The Effects of Multifactorial Fall Prevention on the Psychological Risk Factors of Falling

Psychological factors, such as depression or depressive symptoms and fear of falling are linked to falls among the aged. According to previous studies, they may increase the risk of falls and injurious falls. In addition, depression or a high amount of depressive symptoms and fear of falling may hinder participation in preventive activities. Despite the severe consequences of both conditions and their high prevalence among the aged, they have rarely been studied in the context of fall prevention. The study aimed to assess the effects of multifactorial fall prevention on the psychological risk factors of falling (depressive symptoms and fear of falling) among the community-dwelling aged at increased risk of falling. In addition, it aimed to determine factors predicting high adherence to preventive activities. Volunteers aged 65 or over, who had fallen during the year previous to randomisation were recruited. Participants (n=591) were randomised into an intervention or a control group. The intervention group received a multifactorial fall prevention programme including geriatric assessment, individual guidance on fall and fracture prevention, group- and home-based physical exercise, psychosocial group activities, lectures and home hazards assessment. The control group had a one-time counselling on fall and fracture prevention. The data on psychological risk factors of falling were collected by self-rated questionnaires. Multifactorial fall prevention was not effective in reducing depressive symptoms or fear of falling compared to one-time counselling in the total sample. However, in subgroup analyses, depressive symptoms reduced statistically significantly more among the men and older participants of the intervention group compared to the control group. Female gender, high physical and cognitive abilities and low self-perceived probability of falling were independent predictors of higher adherence in organised activities. In conclusion, few psychological benefits were gained during this multifactorial fall prevention trial. More attention should be focused on adherence, especially among the aged with functional disabilities.

Power supply noise and logic error probability

Voltage fluctuations caused by parasitic impedances in the power supply rails of modern ICs are a major concern in nowadays ICs. The voltage fluctuations are spread out to the diverse nodes of the internal sections causing two effects: a degradation of performances mainly impacting gate delays anda noisy contamination of the quiescent levels of the logic that drives the node. Both effects are presented together, in thispaper, showing than both are a cause of errors in modern and future digital circuits. The paper groups both error mechanismsand shows how the global error rate is related with the voltage deviation and the period of the clock of the digital system.

Error probability in synchronous digital circuits due to power supply noise

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model the problem of power supply voltage fluctuations. Error probability calculations are shown for some 90-nm technology digital circuits.The analysis here considered gives the timing violation error probability as a new design quality factor in front of conventional techniques that assume the full perfection of the circuit. The evaluation of the error bound can be useful for new design paradigms where retry and self-recoveringtechniques are being applied to the design of high performance processors. The method here described allows to evaluate the performance of these techniques by means of calculating the expected error probability in terms of power supply distribution quality.

The PsyCoLaus study: methodology and characteristics of the sample of a population-based survey on psychiatric disorders and their association with genetic and cardiovascular risk factors.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The Psychiatric arm of the population-based CoLaus study (PsyCoLaus) is designed to: 1) establish the prevalence of threshold and subthreshold psychiatric syndromes in the 35 to 66 year-old population of the city of Lausanne (Switzerland); 2) test the validity of postulated definitions for subthreshold mood and anxiety syndromes; 3) determine the associations between psychiatric disorders, personality traits and cardiovascular diseases (CVD), 4) identify genetic variants that can modify the risk for psychiatric disorders and determine whether genetic risk factors are shared between psychiatric disorders and CVD. This paper presents the method as well as somatic and sociodemographic characteristics of the sample. METHODS: All 35 to 66 year-old persons previously selected for the population-based CoLaus survey on risk factors for CVD were asked to participate in a substudy assessing psychiatric conditions. This investigation included the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies to elicit diagnostic criteria for threshold disorders according to DSM-IV and algorithmically defined subthreshold syndromes. Complementary information was gathered on potential risk and protective factors for psychiatric disorders, migraine and on the morbidity of first-degree family members, whereas the collection of DNA and plasma samples was part of the original somatic study (CoLaus). RESULTS: A total of 3,691 individuals completed the psychiatric evaluation (67% participation). The gender distribution of the sample did not differ significantly from that of the general population in the same age range. Although the youngest 5-year band of the cohort was underrepresented and the oldest 5-year band overrepresented, participants of PsyCoLaus and individuals who refused to participate revealed comparable scores on the General Health Questionnaire, a self-rating instrument completed at the somatic exam. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations resulting from the relatively low participation in the context of a comprehensive and time-consuming investigation, the PsyCoLaus study should significantly contribute to the current understanding of psychiatric disorders and comorbid somatic conditions by: 1) establishing the clinical relevance of specific psychiatric syndromes below the DSM-IV threshold; 2) determining comorbidity between risk factors for CVD and psychiatric disorders; 3) assessing genetic variants associated with common psychiatric disorders and 4) identifying DNA markers shared between CVD and psychiatric disorders.