Probabilistic crack growth analyses using a boundary element model: Applications in linear elastic fracture and fatigue problems

This paper addresses the numerical solution of random crack propagation problems using the coupling boundary element method (BEM) and reliability algorithms. Crack propagation phenomenon is efficiently modelled using BEM, due to its mesh reduction features. The BEM model is based on the dual BEM formulation, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are adopted to construct the system of algebraic equations. Two reliability algorithms are coupled with BEM model. The first is the well known response surface method, in which local, adaptive polynomial approximations of the mechanical response are constructed in search of the design point. Different experiment designs and adaptive schemes are considered. The alternative approach direct coupling, in which the limit state function remains implicit and its gradients are calculated directly from the numerical mechanical response, is also considered. The performance of both coupling methods is compared in application to some crack propagation problems. The investigation shows that direct coupling scheme converged for all problems studied, irrespective of the problem nonlinearity. The computational cost of direct coupling has shown to be a fraction of the cost of response surface solutions, regardless of experiment design or adaptive scheme considered. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An ecological economic interpretation of the Jevons effect

This article develops an ecological economic interpretation of the Jevons effect. Moreover, it is argued that under the neoclassical paradigm there are no elements with which to foresee the long-term existence of this phenomenon. The objective of these arguments is to demonstrate that the Jevons effect can be used to compare the ability of neoclassical and ecological economics describing the social appropriation of nature. This is elaborated in two steps. First, we show the importance of the thesis that the economy cannot be cut off from the biophysical materiality of what is produced to give consistency to the so-called Khazzoom-Brookes postulate. It is made clear that this supposition is exogenous to the neoclassical paradigm. Second, the supposition of the biophysical materiality of what is produced is utilized to make an ecological economic interpretation of the Jevons effect. Afterwards, a comparison is made between the neoclassical and the ecological economic perspectives. This comparison leads to the following conclusions: (i) the persistent presence of the Jevons effect in the long run is an anomaly in the neoclassical paradigm; (ii) the observation of the non-existence of the Jevons effect is a refutation of the supposition that economic growth and biophysical materiality are not separable, a central thesis defended by ecological economists. This situation makes possible to use the Jevons effect as a 'laboratory test' to compare the ability of neoclassical and ecological economic paradigms to describe the social appropriation of nature. (C) 20111 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mini-Mental State Examination sentence writing among community-dwelling elderly adults in Brazil: text fluency and grammar complexity

Background: In normal aging, the decrease in the syntactic complexity of written production is usually associated with cognitive deficits. This study was aimed to analyze the quality of older adults' textual production indicated by verbal fluency (number of words) and grammatical complexity (number of ideas) in relation to gender, age, schooling, and cognitive status. Methods: From a probabilistic sample of community-dwelling people aged 65 years and above (n = 900), 577 were selected on basis of their responses to the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) sentence writing, which were submitted to content analysis; 323 were excluded as they left the item blank or performed illegible or not meaningful responses. Education adjusted cut-off scores for the MMSE were used to classify the participants as cognitively impaired or unimpaired. Total and subdomain MMSE scores were computed. Results: 40.56% of participants whose answers to the MMSE sentence were excluded from the analyses had cognitive impairment compared to 13.86% among those whose answers were included. The excluded participants were older and less educated. Women and those older than 80 years had the lowest scores in the MMSE. There was no statistically significant relationship between gender, age, schooling, and textual performance. There was a modest but significant correlation between number of words written and the scores in the Language subdomain. Conclusions: Results suggest the strong influence of schooling and age over MMSE sentence performance. Failing to write a sentence may suggest cognitive impairment, yet, instructions for the MMSE sentence, i.e. to produce a simple sentence, may limit its clinical interpretation.

Bagging k-dependence probabilistic networks: An alternative powerful fraud detection tool

Fraud is a global problem that has required more attention due to an accentuated expansion of modern technology and communication. When statistical techniques are used to detect fraud, whether a fraud detection model is accurate enough in order to provide correct classification of the case as a fraudulent or legitimate is a critical factor. In this context, the concept of bootstrap aggregating (bagging) arises. The basic idea is to generate multiple classifiers by obtaining the predicted values from the adjusted models to several replicated datasets and then combining them into a single predictive classification in order to improve the classification accuracy. In this paper, for the first time, we aim to present a pioneer study of the performance of the discrete and continuous k-dependence probabilistic networks within the context of bagging predictors classification. Via a large simulation study and various real datasets, we discovered that the probabilistic networks are a strong modeling option with high predictive capacity and with a high increment using the bagging procedure when compared to traditional techniques. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic failure modelling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride penetration

Structural durability is an important criterion that must be evaluated for every type of structure. Concerning reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. The chloride ingress triggers the corrosion of reinforcements; therefore, by modelling this phenomenon, the corrosion process can be better evaluated as well as the structural durability. The corrosion begins when a threshold level of chloride concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due the inherent randomness observed in this process. In this regard, structural durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. This paper addresses the analyses of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride penetration. The chloride penetration is modelled using the Fick's diffusion law. This law simulates the chloride diffusion process considering time-dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the first order reliability method, with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena. Moreover, a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.

Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks

Semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) merge two important graphical model formalisms: Bayesian networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provade a very Complexity of inferences in polytree-shaped semi-qualitative probabilistic networks and qualitative probabilistic networks. They provide a very general modeling framework by allowing the combination of numeric and qualitative assessments over a discrete domain, and can be compactly encoded by exploiting the same factorization of joint probability distributions that are behind the bayesian networks. This paper explores the computational complexity of semi-qualitative probabilistic networks, and takes the polytree-shaped networks as its main target. We show that the inference problem is coNP-Complete for binary polytrees with multiple observed nodes. We also show that interferences can be performed in time linear in the number of nodes if there is a single observed node. Because our proof is construtive, we obtain an efficient linear time algorithm for SQPNs under such assumptions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact polynominal-time algorithm for SQPn. Together these results provide a clear picture of the inferential complexity in polytree-shaped SQPNs.

Link prediction using a probabilistic description logic

Due to the growing interest in social networks, link prediction has received significant attention. Link prediction is mostly based on graph-based features, with some recent approaches focusing on domain semantics. We propose algorithms for link prediction that use a probabilistic ontology to enhance the analysis of the domain and the unavoidable uncertainty in the task (the ontology is specified in the probabilistic description logic crALC). The scalability of the approach is investigated, through a combination of semantic assumptions and graph-based features. We evaluate empirically our proposal, and compare it with standard solutions in the literature.

Interpretation of the depths of maximum of extensive air showers measured by the Pierre Auger Observatory

To interpret the mean depth of cosmic ray air shower maximum and its dispersion, we parametrize those two observables as functions of the rst two moments of the lnA distribution. We examine the goodness of this simple method through simulations of test mass distributions. The application of the parameterization to Pierre Auger Observatory data allows one to study the energy dependence of the mean lnA and of its variance under the assumption of selected hadronic interaction models. We discuss possible implications of these dependences in term of interaction models and astrophysical cosmic ray sources.

Setting up interpretation criteria for juvenile and adult European anchovy otoliths from Canary Islands

Máster en Gestión Sostenible de Recursos Pesqueros

Preliminary interpretation of growth ring on the otolith of Boops boops off Gran Canaria (Canary Islands)

Máster en Gestión Sostenible de Recursos Pesqueros

Thermodynamic behavior of the binaries 1-butilpryridinium tetrafluoroborate with water and alkanols: their interpretation using 1H-NMR spectroscopy and quantum-chemistry calculations

[EN]Here we present experimental data of different properties for a set of binary mixtures composed of water or alkanols (methanol to butanol) with an ionic liquid (IL), butylpyridinium tetrafluoroborate [bpy][BF4]. Solubility data (xIL,T) are presented for each of the mixtures, including water, which is found to have a small interval of compositions in IL, xIL, with immiscibility. In each case, the upper critical solubility temperature (UCST) is determined and a correlation was observed between the UCST and the nature of the compounds in the mixtures. Miscibility curves establish the composition and temperature intervals where thermodynamic properties of the mixtures, such as enthalpies Hm E and volumes Vm E, can be determined.

Binary liquid-liquid equilibria for systems of mono or disubstituted haloakanes (Cl,Br) and pyiridinium based ionic liquids. Advances in the experimentation and interpretation of results

[EN]This work presents the measurements made to define the temperature−composition curves for a set of binary systems composed of several pyridinium-based ionic liquids (ILs) [bpy][BF4] and [bYmpy][BF4] (Y = 2,3,4) with mono- and dihaloalkanes (Cl and Br) in the temperature interval [280−473] K and at atmospheric pressure. With the exception of the short chain dichloroalkanes (1,1- and 1,2-), all the compounds present some degree of immiscibility with the ionic liquids selected.

Probabilistic approaches in civil engineering: generation of random fields and structural identification with genetic algorithms

The inherent stochastic character of most of the physical quantities involved in engineering models has led to an always increasing interest for probabilistic analysis. Many approaches to stochastic analysis have been proposed. However, it is widely acknowledged that the only universal method available to solve accurately any kind of stochastic mechanics problem is Monte Carlo Simulation. One of the key parts in the implementation of this technique is the accurate and efficient generation of samples of the random processes and fields involved in the problem at hand. In the present thesis an original method for the simulation of homogeneous, multi-dimensional, multi-variate, non-Gaussian random fields is proposed. The algorithm has proved to be very accurate in matching both the target spectrum and the marginal probability. The computational efficiency and robustness are very good too, even when dealing with strongly non-Gaussian distributions. What is more, the resulting samples posses all the relevant, welldefined and desired properties of “translation fields”, including crossing rates and distributions of extremes. The topic of the second part of the thesis lies in the field of non-destructive parametric structural identification. Its objective is to evaluate the mechanical characteristics of constituent bars in existing truss structures, using static loads and strain measurements. In the cases of missing data and of damages that interest only a small portion of the bar, Genetic Algorithm have proved to be an effective tool to solve the problem.

Natural patterns and anthropogenic disturbance in north Adriatic marine benthic assemblages: descriptive and methodological studies

Marine soft bottom systems show a high variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Both natural and anthropogenic sources of disturbance act together in affecting benthic sedimentary characteristics and species distribution. The description of such spatial variability is required to understand the ecological processes behind them. However, in order to have a better estimate of spatial patterns, methods that take into account the complexity of the sedimentary system are required. This PhD thesis aims to give a significant contribution both in improving the methodological approaches to the study of biological variability in soft bottom habitats and in increasing the knowledge of the effect that different process (both natural and anthropogenic) could have on the benthic communities of a large area in the North Adriatic Sea. Beta diversity is a measure of the variability in species composition, and Whittaker’s index has become the most widely used measure of beta-diversity. However, application of the Whittaker index to soft bottom assemblages of the Adriatic Sea highlighted its sensitivity to rare species (species recorded in a single sample). This over-weighting of rare species induces biased estimates of the heterogeneity, thus it becomes difficult to compare assemblages containing a high proportion of rare species. In benthic communities, the unusual large number of rare species is frequently attributed to a combination of sampling errors and insufficient sampling effort. In order to reduce the influence of rare species on the measure of beta diversity, I have developed an alternative index based on simple probabilistic considerations. It turns out that this probability index is an ordinary Michaelis-Menten transformation of Whittaker's index but behaves more favourably when species heterogeneity increases. The suggested index therefore seems appropriate when comparing patterns of complexity in marine benthic assemblages. Although the new index makes an important contribution to the study of biodiversity in sedimentary environment, it remains to be seen which processes, and at what scales, influence benthic patterns. The ability to predict the effects of ecological phenomena on benthic fauna highly depends on both spatial and temporal scales of variation. Once defined, implicitly or explicitly, these scales influence the questions asked, the methodological approaches and the interpretation of results. Problem often arise when representative samples are not taken and results are over-generalized, as can happen when results from small-scale experiments are used for resource planning and management. Such issues, although globally recognized, are far from been resolved in the North Adriatic Sea. This area is potentially affected by both natural (e.g. river inflow, eutrophication) and anthropogenic (e.g. gas extraction, fish-trawling) sources of disturbance. Although few studies in this area aimed at understanding which of these processes mainly affect macrobenthos, these have been conducted at a small spatial scale, as they were designated to examine local changes in benthic communities or particular species. However, in order to better describe all the putative processes occurring in the entire area, a high sampling effort performed at a large spatial scale is required. The sedimentary environment of the western part of the Adriatic Sea was extensively studied in this thesis. I have described, in detail, spatial patterns both in terms of sedimentary characteristics and macrobenthic organisms and have suggested putative processes (natural or of human origin) that might affect the benthic environment of the entire area. In particular I have examined the effect of off shore gas platforms on benthic diversity and tested their effect over a background of natural spatial variability. The results obtained suggest that natural processes in the North Adriatic such as river outflow and euthrophication show an inter-annual variability that might have important consequences on benthic assemblages, affecting for example their spatial pattern moving away from the coast and along a North to South gradient. Depth-related factors, such as food supply, light, temperature and salinity play an important role in explaining large scale benthic spatial variability (i.e., affecting both the abundance patterns and beta diversity). Nonetheless, more locally, effects probably related to an organic enrichment or pollution from Po river input has been observed. All these processes, together with few human-induced sources of variability (e.g. fishing disturbance), have a higher effect on macrofauna distribution than any effect related to the presence of gas platforms. The main effect of gas platforms is restricted mainly to small spatial scales and related to a change in habitat complexity due to a natural dislodgement or structure cleaning of mussels that colonize their legs. The accumulation of mussels on the sediment reasonably affects benthic infauna composition. All the components of the study presented in this thesis highlight the need to carefully consider methodological aspects related to the study of sedimentary habitats. With particular regards to the North Adriatic Sea, a multi-scale analysis along natural and anthopogenic gradients was useful for detecting the influence of all the processes affecting the sedimentary environment. In the future, applying a similar approach may lead to an unambiguous assessment of the state of the benthic community in the North Adriatic Sea. Such assessment may be useful in understanding if any anthropogenic source of disturbance has a negative effect on the marine environment, and if so, planning sustainable strategies for a proper management of the affected area.