Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of utmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies, and government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data to anticipate future life expectancy and hence quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age, and cohort and forecast these trends into the future by using standard statistical methods. These approaches rely on the assumption that structural breaks in the trend do not exist or do not have a significant impact on the mortality forecasts. Recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the presence or of structural breaks in a selection of leading mortality models. We find that structural breaks are present in the majority of cases. In particular, we find that allowing for structural break, where present, improves the forecast result significantly.

At Home in Care: Children living with birth parents on a Care Order

This study explored the processes, background information, and perceived reasons why children and young people returned home while remaining in care, in the five HSC Trusts in Northern Ireland. The research also focused on understanding the functions the Care Order had for social services, the birth parents, and young people involved.
It was found that on 31st March 2009, there were 193 children/young people living with their birth parents on a Care Order in Northern Ireland. This is eight per cent of the total population of Looked After children, and is lower than had been anticipated from governmental statistics. In total, the case files of 47 of these young people (24% of them) were reviewed, and interviews were conducted with ten of them and their birth parent/s.
The analysis revealed that the majority of them had in common a parental background history of alcohol abuse and domestic violence, and most return breakdowns in the study were related to continuing parental alcohol and/or drugs misuse. While some children had a planned return home after parents had engaged in supports and completed assessments, many young people had returns that were not planned, as they initiated the move themselves, or previous foster placements had broken down and there were no alternative placements identified for them. Many of these young people essentially ‘voted with their feet’, and social services were required to ensure that they remained safe in often less than optimal circumstances.
After returning home, for many, Care Orders remained for initially unintended lengthy periods because of the risks posed by parents’ intermittent alcohol abuse and their lifestyle, contact issues, and parents’ desire to ensure that their children were able to access the supports that they needed. Thus, Care Orders at home tended to serve two main functions: to either monitor and/or support the placement.

The Management of Long-Term Sickness Absence in Large Public Sector Healthcare Organisations: A Realist Evaluation Using Mixed Methods

Purpose The success of measures to reduce long-term sickness absence (LTSA) in public sector organisations is contingent on organisational context. This realist evaluation investigates how interventions interact with context to influence successful management of LTSA. Methods Multi-method case study in three Health and Social Care Trusts in Northern Ireland comprising realist literature review, semi-structured interviews (61 participants), Process-Mapping and feedback meetings (59 participants), observation of training, analysis of documents. Results Important activities included early intervention; workplace-based occupational rehabilitation; robust sickness absence policies with clear trigger points for action. Used appropriately, in a context of good interpersonal and interdepartmental communication and shared goals, these are able to increase the motivation of staff to return to work. Line managers are encouraged to take a proactive approach when senior managers provide support and accountability. Hindering factors: delayed intervention; inconsistent implementation of policy and procedure; lack of resources; organisational complexity; stakeholders misunderstanding each other’s goals and motives. Conclusions Different mechanisms have the potential to encourage common motivations for earlier return from LTSA, such as employees feeling that they have the support of their line manager to return to work and having the confidence to do so. Line managers’ proactively engage when they have confidence in the support of seniors and in their own ability to address LTSA. Fostering these motivations calls for a thoughtful, diagnostic process, taking into account the contextual factors (and whether they can be modified) and considering how a given intervention can be used to trigger the appropriate mechanisms.

Use of maternity surveys in improving the care experience – a review of the evidence

The use of surveys and direct feedback from women as a measurement of their maternity experience is seen as a means of stimulating quality improvement. Underpinning the overall rationale behind national maternity surveys is the acknowledgement that there is a need to document women's views of maternity services to inform policymakers with a view to enhancing the delivery of quality care to women. The evidence suggests that using maternity surveys to improve maternity care experience is central to UK health policy. It is also evident that qualitative input from women has the power to highlight mismatches of experience between women and professionals. Trusts are required to look to the future and invest in qualitative methodologies, which elicit rich and detailed information on women's experiences. The aim of this literature review is to critically analyse the use of maternity surveys and their validity in improving the care experienced by users of maternity services.

Does the UK Local Finance Improvement Trust (Lift) Initiative Improve Risk Management in Public-Private Procurement?

The UK government introduced the Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and, latterly, the Local Improvement Finance Trust (LIFT) in an attempt to improve public service provision. As a variant of PFI, LIFT seeks to create a framework for the effective provision of primary care facilities. Like conventional PFI procurement, LIFT projects involve long-term contracts, complex multi-party interactions and thus create various risks to public sector clients. This paper investigates the advantages and disadvantages of LIFT with a focus on how this approach facilitates or impedes risk management from the public sector client perspective. Our paper concludes that LIFT has a potential for creating additional problems, including the further reduction of public sector control, conflicts of interest, the inappropriate use of enabling funds, and higher than market rental costs affecting the uptake of space in the buildings by local health care providers. However, there is also evidence that LIFT has facilitated new investment and that Primary Care Trusts (PCTs) have themselves started addressing some of the weaknesses of this procurement format through the bundling of projects and other forms of regional co-operation.

Trends and Determinants of Work-Retirement Transitions under Changing Institutional Conditions: Germany, England and Japan compared

Many governments world-wide are promoting longer working life due to the social and economic repercussions of demographic change. However, not all workers are equally able to extend their employment careers. Thus, while national policies raise the overall level of labour market participation, they might create new social and labour market inequalities. This paper explores how institutional differences in the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan affect individual retirement decisions on the aggregate level, and variations in individuals’ degree of choice within and across countries. We investigate which groups of workers are disproportionately at risk of being ‘pushed’ out of employment, and how such inequalities have changed over time. We use comparable national longitudinal survey datasets focusing on the older population in England, Germany and Japan. Results point to cross-national differences in retirement transitions. Retirement transitions in Germany have occurred at an earlier age than in England and Japan. In Japan, the incidence of involuntary retirement is the lowest, reflecting an institutional context prescribing that employers provide employment until pension age, while Germany and England display substantial proportions of involuntary exits triggered by organisational-level redundancies, persistent early retirement plans or individual ill-health.

Trade union responses to ageing workforces in the UK and Germany

Ageing workforces are placing conflicting pressures on European trade unions in order to, on the one hand, protect pensions and early retirement routes, and, on the other, promote human resource management (HRM) policies geared towards enabling their older members to extend working life. Using interviews from German and United Kingdom (UK) trade unions, we discuss how unions are both constrained and enabled by pre-existing institutional structures in advocating approaches to age management. In Germany, some unions use their strong institutional role to affect public policy and industrial change at national and sectoral levels. UK unions have taken a more defensive approach, focused on protecting pension rights. The contrasting varieties of capitalism, welfare systems and trade unions’ own orientations are creating different pressures and
mechanisms to which unions need to respond. While the German inclusive system is providing unions with mechanisms for negotiating collectively at the national level, UK unions’ activism remains localized.

Delivering a Research-Enabled Multistakeholder Partnership for Enhanced Patient Care at a Population Level: The Northern Ireland Comprehensive Cancer Program

The last 20 years have seen significant advances in cancer care in Northern Ireland, leading to measureable improvements in patient outcomes. Crucial to this transformation has been an ethos that recognizes the primacy role of research in effecting heath care change. The authors' model of a cross-sectoral partnership that unites patients, scientists, health care professionals, hospital trusts, bioindustry, and government agencies can be truly transformative, empowering tripartite clinical-academic-industry efforts that have already yielded significant benefit and will continue to inform strategy and its implementation going forward.

Nurturing attachments in looked after children: a feasibility study of a group-based programme for carers

Introduction: The attachment related difficulties of Looked after Children are well recognised in literature with difficulties linked to early experiences hypothesised to be perpetuated by experiences of the care system itself. Recent policy guidelines have emphasised the importance of relationships for children in care, one of the most important being with their primary carer. Golding (2014) published a group format training resource entitled ‘Nurturing Attachments’ which aims to promote ‘therapeutic parenting’; however there is limited knowledge on the feasibility of this intensive approach.
Aims: To assess the feasibility of Nurturing Attachments through exploring (i.) recruitment, retention and attrition, (ii.) initial outcomes, (iii.) acceptability and (iv.) ability of the programme to be delivered in line with the manual content and structure.
Method Two Health and Social Care Trusts in NI participated in the study by facilitating a Nurturing Attachments group in each site with adoptive parents, foster carers and kinship carers (N = 26). Carers completed pre and post measures to explore initial outcome, completing an evaluation questionnaire to explore acceptability. Acceptability was also explored with Trust stakeholders and group facilitators through focus group and interview. To explore if the manual can be delivered as intended, each group completed debrief tools.
Results: The overall response rate for uptake was 13.9%, which impacted on engagement for a ‘treatment as usual’ group. Once engaged in the programme, attrition was low and attendance was high. Initial outcomes have shown positive effects for both young person and carers. Feedback suggests a positive response regarding acceptability with limited expressed concern. The manual can be delivered in a standardised way; however can be flexible enough to allow for group processes.
Conclusions: Further research is needed to continue to explore efficacy, however the current study has provided supporting evidence that Nurturing Attachments as an intervention has positively impacted on many levels of the LAAC system.

Personal and Public Involvement and its impact - Monitoring, measuring and evaluating the impact of Personal and Public Involvement (PPI) in Health and Social Care in Northern Ireland.

Introduction
This report details the findings from research conducted across Northern Ireland’s Health and Social Care Trusts during 2015 which examines the current state of Personal and Public Involvement (PPI). This is about how service users, carers and patients engage with staff, management and directors of statutory health and social care organisations. Most statutory health and social care organisations must, under legislation, meet the requirements of PPI. PPI has been part of health and social care policy in Northern Ireland since 2007 and became law two years later with the introduction of the Health and Social Care Reform Act (2009). It is, therefore, timely that PPI is now assessed in this systematic way in order to both examine the aspects which are working well and to highlight those areas where improvements need to be made. As far as possible, this Summary Report is written in an accessible way, avoiding jargon and explaining key research terms, so as to ensure it is widely understood. This is in keeping with established good practice in service user involvement research. This summary, therefore, gives a picture of PPI in Northern Ireland currently. There is also a fuller report which gives a lot more details about the research and findings. Information on this is available from the Public Health Agency and/or the Patient and Client Council.

Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.

Using data envelopment analysis to assess the efficiency of social security systems: the case of income protection in old age

As the number of pensioners in Europe rises relative to the number of people in employment, the gap between the contributions and the benefit levels increases, and consequently ensuring adequate pensions on a sustainable basis has become a major challenge. This study aims to explore the potential of using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique in order to access the efficiency of the income protection in old age, one of the most important branches of Social Security. To this effect, we collected data from the 27 European Union Member States regarding this branch. Our results show important differences among the Member States and stress the importance of identifying best practices to achieve more adequate, sustainable and modernised pension systems. Our results also highlight the importance of using DEA as a decision support tool for policy makers.

Introduction to the Transforming Dementia Care in Hospitals Series

A short series of articles in Nursing Older People, starting in September, presents case study examples of the positive work achieved by trusts that participated in the RCN’s development programme to improve dementia care in acute hospitals. This introductory article reports on the independent evaluation of the programme. The programme included a launch event, development days, site visits, ongoing support by the RCN lead and carer representatives and a conference to showcase service improvements. The evaluation drew on data from a survey, the site visits, trust action plans and a range of self-assessment tools for dementia care. The findings highlight substantial progress towards programme objectives and learning outcomes and suggest that the programme provided the focus, impetus and structure for trusts to make sustainable changes. It also equipped participants with the strategies and confidence to change practice. Recommendations are made for taking the programme forward.

Understanding the Needs of People with Dementia and Family Carers

This is the first in a short series that presents case study examples of the positive work achieved by trusts who participated in the Royal College of Nursing's development programme to improve dementia care in acute hospitals. When a person with dementia is in hospital, poor understanding of individual needs and preferences can contribute to a lack of person-centred care. Similarly, the needs of family carers can often be overlooked and staff do not always appreciate these needs at such a stressful time. This article illustrates how three NHS trusts have addressed these issues. To help staff get to know patients with dementia, Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust has implemented a patient passport. Similarly, The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust has implemented a carer passport that overcomes the restrictions imposed by hospital visiting hours. Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust also focused on carers, holding a workshop to elicit feedback on what was important to them. This was a useful means of engaging with carers and helped staff to realise that even simple changes can have a significant effect.