Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Le temps partagé dans la jouissance de la propriété par étages : étude de la copropriété spatio-temporelle sur une part d'étage

Introduction : Depuis plusieurs années, la pratique a développé une nouvelle forme d'utilisation de la propriété immobilière : le time-sharing, que l'on appelle aussi couramment propriété en temps partagé ou multipropriété. Son objectif est de permettre à plusieurs personnes de bénéficier du même logement de vacances en prévoyant une répartition temporelle de leur usage. Actuellement, il n'existe dans le système juridique suisse aucune disposition légale qui traite expressément du time-sharing, mais ce concept peut être valablement établi sur la base du droit en vigueur en ayant recours à différentes constructions. En effet, le droit contractuel, le droit des sociétés et les droits réels sont autant de moyens utilisés par la pratique pour atteindre le but fixé. Le choix entre ces diverses alternatives n'est toutefois pas anodin, car il détermine de manière directe la position juridique du time-sharer vis-à-vis des tiers et des personnes qui font partie de la même structure que lui. Le système du time-sharing a suscité un véritable engouement auprès des consommateurs, mais il a également donné lieu à de nombreux abus dont la presse s'est faite l'écho. Pour ces raisons, le législateur envisage aujourd'hui d'introduire des dispositions légales protectrices permettant de délimiter précisément les droits et obligations dont le time-sharer acquiert la titularité. Cette intervention législative ne consiste toutefois pas en une réglementation du time-sharing, mais uniquement en l'élaboration de normes générales qui doivent s'appliquer lors de la conclusion du contrat d'acquisition et qui se veulent compatibles avec les différentes constructions juridiques possibles. Nous avons choisi, pour la présente étude, d'examiner les possibilités qu'offrent les droits réels pour établir le partage de la jouissance d'un appartement et d'analyser la construction qui assure au consommateur la position la plus stable : celle de copropriétaire d'une part de propriété par étages. Les caractéristiques propres au time-sharing qui nous intéresse sont ainsi les suivantes : 1) Le time-sharer est un véritable propriétaire immobilier. Le droit de propriété assure une position forte à son titulaire qui bénéficie alors de tous les attributs et toutes les garanties de ce droit absolu. Mais le fait que plusieurs personnes acquièrent le même objet, nous met en présence du concept de propriété collective qu'il faut analyser afin d'expliquer la construction juridique du time-sharing en droits réels. 2) L'appartement reste toujours le même. L'objectif principal du consommateur est d'acquérir un droit de propriété sur un logement qu'il a lui-même choisi. Nous excluons ainsi les sociétés qui mettent à disposition de leurs membres un choix d'appartements que ce soit contre le versement d'une somme d'argent, par le biais d'un système d'acquisition de points-vacances, ou proportionnellement à l'investissement dans le capital social et le parc immobilier de la société. En outre, bien qu'il soit loisible à tout propriétaire d'entrer en relation avec une société d'échange afin de bénéficier d'un autre appartement, nous n'examinerons pas les rapports juridiques ainsi créés, car ils relèvent du droit contractuel et du droit des sociétés et non des droits réels. 3) L'immeuble est situé en Suisse et il est organisé en propriété par étages avant que les différents appartements qui le constituent ne soient vendus. Malgré le succès connu par le time-sharing hors de nos frontières, nous avons décidé de nous intéresser uniquement au statut réel du time-sharing en droit suisse et non aux divers problèmes qui peuvent surgir en droit international privé face aux contrats passés sous l'empire d'un droit étranger. En outre, comme nous le verrons, la structure de la propriété par étages se révèle être parfaitement adaptée au time-sharing en offrant une organisation élaborée et une communauté bénéficiant de la quasi-personnalité juridique. 4) Il n'y a aucun lien préexistant entre les différents acquéreurs et il n'est, par conséquent, pas nécessaire que l'acquisition de l'appartement se fasse simultanément et de manière collective. Dans la plupart des cas, les acquisitions seront échelonnées dans le temps et les personnes entreront en contact uniquement par le biais de leur logement commun. Le système permet donc une grande indépendance entre les différents membres du time-sharing, autant lors de l'achat que de la revente du droit de jouissance. 5) L'appartement étant vendu à de nombreuses personnes, il est nécessaire de fixer des périodes cycliques de jouissance. Celles-ci sont l'élément essentiel du time-sharing et déterminent le prix de vente par leur durée et par leur situation annuelle en haute saison ou en concordance avec les vacances scolaires. Toutefois, bien d'autres éléments nécessitent d'être règlés au niveau de l'organisation interne pour établir avec précision les droits et obligations de chacun. Le plan de notre étude comporte quatre parties principales qui portent respectivement sur la théorie de la propriété collective, sur les différentes constructions envisageables dans le domaine des droits réels, sur l'organisation de la copropriété fondant le time-sharing et sur l'examen des projets de révisions législatives à la lumière de la copropriété.

Anatomical distribution of areas of preserved cartilage in advanced femorotibial osteoarthritis using CT arthrography (Part 1).

OBJECTIVE: To determine subregions of normal and abnormal cartilage in advanced stages of femorotibial osteoarthritis (OA) by mapping the entire femorotibial joint in a cohort of pre-total knee replacement (TKR) OA knees. DESIGN: We defined an areal subdivision of the femorotibial articular cartilage surface on CT arthrography (CTA), allowing the division of the femorotibial articular surface into multiple (up to n = 204 per knee) subregions and the comparison of the same areas between different knees. Two readers independently classified each cartilage area as normal, abnormal or non-assessable in 41 consecutive pre-TKR OA knees. RESULTS: A total of 6447 cartilage areas (from 41 knees) were considered assessable by both readers. The average proportion of preserved cartilage was lower in the medial femorotibial joint than in the lateral femorotibial joint for both readers (32.0/69.8% and 33.9/68.5% (medial/lateral) for reader 1 and 2 respectively, all P < 0.001). High frequencies of normal cartilage were observed at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle (up to 89%), and the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment (up to 100%). The posterior aspect of the medial condyle was the area that most frequently exhibited preserved cartilage in the medial femorotibial joint, contrasting with the high frequency of cartilage lesions in the rest of that compartment. CONCLUSIONS: Cartilage at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle, and at the anterior aspect of the lateral femorotibial compartment, may be frequently preserved in advanced grades of OA.

Structural investigations into the interaction of hemoglobin and part structures with bacterial endotoxins.

An understanding of details of the interaction mechanisms of bacterial endotoxins (lipopolysaccharide, LPS) with the oxygen transport protein hemoglobin is still lacking, despite its high biological relevance. Here, a biophysical investigation into the endotoxin:hemoglobin interaction is presented which comprises the use of various rough mutant LPS as well as free lipid A; in addition to the complete hemoglobin molecule from fetal sheep extract, also the partial structure alpha-chain and the heme-free sample are studied. The investigations comprise the determination of the gel-to-liquid crystalline phase behaviour of the acyl chains of LPS, the ultrastructure (type of aggregate structure and morphology) of the endotoxins, and the incorporation of the hemoglobins into artificial immune cell membranes and into LPS. Our data suggest a model for the interaction between Hb and LPS in which hemoglobins do not react strongly with the hydrophilic or with the hydrophobic moiety of LPS, but with the complete endotoxin aggregate. Hb is able to incorporate into LPS with the longitudinal direction parallel to the lipid A double-layer. Although this does not lead to a strong disturbance of the LPS acyl chain packing, the change of the curvature leads to a slightly conical molecular shape with a change of the three-dimensional arrangement from unilamellar into cubic LPS aggregates. Our previous results show that cubic LPS structures exhibit strong endotoxic activity. The property of Hb on the physical state of LPS described here may explain the observation of an increase in LPS-mediating endotoxicity due to the action of Hb.

Comparison of Creep and Resilient Modulus Laboratory Results with Field Cores, HR-311, Part 3, 1993

This is Part 3 of a study of creep and resilient modulus testing of hot mix asphalt concrete. The creep and resilient modulus testing in Part 1 showed the improved load carrying characteristics of crushed particles. Cores from pavements drilled in Part 2 exhibited a poor correlation with rutting and creep/resilient modulus on pavement with a range of rut depths. The objective of Part 3 was to determine the relationship of creep and resilient modulus for 1) Marshall specimens from laboratory mixing for mix design; 2) Marshall specimens from construction plant mixing; and 3) cores drilled from the hot mixed asphalt pavement. The creep and resilient modulus data from these three sources exhibited substantial variations. No meaningful correlations of the results from these three sources were obtained.

Nonlinear Pile Behavior in Integral Abutment Bridges, HR-227, Part 1, 1982

The highway departments of all fifty states were contacted to find the extent of application of integral abutment bridges, to survey the different guidelines used for analysis and design of integral abutment bridges, and to assess the performance of such bridges through the years. The variation in design assumptions and length limitations among the various states in their approach to the use of integral abutments is discussed. The problems associated with lateral displacements at the abutment, and the solutions developed by the different states for most of the ill effects of abutment movements are summarized in the report. An algorithm based on a state-of-the-art nonlinear finite element procedure was developed and used to study piling stresses and pile-soil interaction in integral abutment bridges. The finite element idealization consists of beam-column elements with geometric and material nonlinearities for the pile and nonlinear springs for the soil. An idealized soil model (modified Ramberg-Osgood model) was introduced in this investigation to obtain the tangent stiffness of the nonlinear spring elements. Several numerical examples are presented in order to establish the reliability of the finite element model and the computer software developed. Three problems with analytical solutions were first solved and compared with theoretical solutions. A 40 ft H pile (HP 10 X 42) in six typical Iowa soils was then analyzed by first applying a horizontal displacement (to simulate bridge motion) and no rotation at the top and then applying a vertical load V incrementally until failure occurred. Based on the numerical results, the failure mechanisms were generalized to be of two types: (a) lateral type failure and (b) vertical type failure. It appears that most piles in Iowa soils (sand, soft clay and stiff clay) failed when the applied vertical load reached the ultimate soil frictional resistance (vertical type failure). In very stiff clays, however, the lateral type failure occurs before vertical type failure because the soil is sufficiently stiff to force a plastic hinge to form in the pile as the specified lateral displacement is applied. Preliminary results from this investigation showed that the vertical load-carrying capacity of H piles is not significantly affected by lateral displacements of 2 inches in soft clay, stiff clay, loose sand, medium sand and dense sand. However, in very stiff clay (average blow count of 50 from standard penetration tests), it was found that the vertical load carrying capacity of the H pile is reduced by about 50 percent for 2 inches of lateral displacement and by about 20 percent for lateral displacement of 1 inch. On the basis of the preliminary results of this investigation, the 265-feet length limitation in Iowa for integral abutment concrete bridges appears to be very conservative.

Paleozoic stratigraphy of the Central and Northern part of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges (NE Spain)

The Paleozoic stratigraphic succession in the Catalonian Coastal Ranges spans the interval from Cambrian(?) to Carboniferous, with only one break, separating the pre-Carboniferous part of the sequence from the Carboniferous. The oldest rocks exposed form a sequence of schists, fine grained sandstones, gneisses (laminar pre-Hercynian intrusions), marbles, orto- and para-amphibolites and calcsilicate rocks. comparison with other localities iuggests an Early Cambrian age (or perhaps in part older). Upwards the sequence becomes more monotonous andconsists only of schists (or slates where themetamorphic grade is lower) and thin fine-grained sandstone layers (Cambrian-Ordovician). Still higher in the sequence, an altemation of greywackes and slates is found, with interlayered mud-supported conglomerates at its lower part and acid volcanic rocks which occur throughout the whole sequence. This part of the sequence has provided the oldest faunas known in the Catalonian Coastal Ranges, which indicate the Caradoc. Finally, in its uppermost part, the Ordovician sequence contains some thin limestone layers that contain Ashgill faunas. The Silurian, from Llandovery to Lower Ludlow, consists of black graptolitic shales with dolerite sills, whilst the upper Ludlow, Pridolian and Devonian consist of nodular limestones and marls withpelagic and hemipelagic faunas. The youngest Devonian faunas found correspond in general to the Emsian. The existence of a gap at this point of the sequence suggests the possibility that part of the Devonian could have been eroded. The Carboniferous is characterized by a thick culm sequence (Visean to Westphalian?), resting on thin chert and limestone layers (Tournaisian and Visean). A comparison with neighbouring areas shows a similarity regarding succession and facies with other Paleozoic massifs around the Western Mediterranean.

Effects of long-term irrigation with treated wastewater. Part I: Evolution of soil physico-chemical properties

The long-term impact of irrigation on a Mediterranean sandy soil irrigated with Treated wastewater (TWW) since 1980 was evaluated. The main soil properties (CEC, pH, size distribution, exchangeable cations and chloride, hydraulic conductivity) as well as the organic matter and Cu, Cr and Pb speciation in an irrigated soil and a non-irrigated control soil at various soil depths were monitored and compared during a 2 years experiment. In this first part, the evolution of the physico-chemical soil properties was described. The irrigation with TWW was beneficial with regard to water and nutrient supplying. All the exchangeable cations other than K(+) were higher in the irrigated soil than in the reference one. A part of the exchangeable cations was not fixed on the exchange complex but stored as labile salts or in concentrated soil solution. Despite the very sandy soil texture, both saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivity exhibited a significant diminution in the irrigated soil, but remained high enough to allow water percolation during rainy periods and subsequent leaching of accumulated salts, preventing soil salinization. In the irrigated soil, exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) exhibited high values (20% on average) and the soil organic C was lower than in the reference. No significant effect was noticed on soil mineralogical composition due to irrigation. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Nonlinear Finite Element Study of Piles in Integral Abutment Bridges, HR-227, Part 2, 1982

The highway departments of the states which use integral abutments in bridge design were contacted in order to study the extent of integral abutment use in skewed bridges and to survey the different guidelines used for analysis and design of integral abutments in skewed bridges. The variation in design assumptions and pile orientations among the various states in their approach to the use of integral abutments on skewed bridges is discussed. The problems associated with the treatment of the approach slab, backfill, and pile cap, and the reason for using different pile orientations are summarized in the report. An algorithm based on a state-of-the-art nonlinear finite element procedure previously developed by the authors was modified and used to study the influence of different factors on behavior of piles in integral abutment bridges. An idealized integral abutment was introduced by assuming that the pile is rigidly cast into the pile cap and that the approach slab offers no resistance to lateral thermal expansion. Passive soil and shear resistance of the cap are neglected in design. A 40-foot H pile (HP 10 X 42) in six typical Iowa soils was analyzed for fully restrained pile head and pinned pile head. According to numerical results, the maximum safe length for fully restrained pile head is one-half the maximum safe length for pinned pile head. If the pile head is partially restrained, the maximum safe length will lie between the two limits. The numerical results from an investigation of the effect of predrilled oversized holes indicate that if the length of the predrilled oversized hole is at least 4 feet below the ground, the vertical load-carrying capacity of the H pile is only reduced by 10 percent for 4 inches of lateral displacement in very stiff clay. With no predrilled oversized hole, the pile failed before the 4-inch lateral displacement was reached. Thus, the maximum safe lengths for integral abutment bridges may be increased by predrilling. Four different typical Iowa layered soils were selected and used in this investigation. In certain situations, compacted soil (> 50 blow count in standard penetration tests) is used as fill on top of natural soil. The numerical results showed that the critical conditions will depend on the length of the compacted soil. If the length of the compacted soil exceeds 4 feet, the failure mechanism for the pile is similar to one in a layer of very stiff clay. That is, the vertical load-carrying capacity of the H pile will be greatly reduced as the specified lateral displacement increases.

A Multi-Project Scheduling Procedure for Transportation Projects, Part II, HR-339, 1994

The Iowa Department of Transportation (IDOT) has been requiring Critical Path Method (CPM) schedules on some larger or more schedule sensitive projects. The Office of Construction's expectations for enhanced project control and improved communication of project objectives have not been fully met by the use of CPM. Recognizing that the current procedures might not be adequate for all projects, IDOT sponsored a research project to explore the state-of-the-art in transportation scheduling and identify opportunities for improvement. The first phase of this project identified a technique known as the Linear Scheduling Method (LSM) as an alternative to CPM on certain highway construction projects. LSM graphically displays the construction process with respect to the location and the time in which each activity occurs. The current phase of this project was implemented to allow the research team the opportunity to evaluate LSM on all small groups of diverse projects. Unlike the first phase of the project, the research team was closely involved in the project from early in the planning phase throughout the completion of the projects. The research strongly suggests that the linear scheduling technique has great potential as a project management tool for both contractors and IDOT personnel. However, before this technique can become a viable weapon in the project management arsenal, a software application needs to be developed. This application should bring to linear scheduling a degree of functionality as rich and as comprehensive as that found in microcomputer based CPM software on the market today. The research team recommends that the IDOT extend this research effort to include the development of a linear scheduling application.

La geografia a la part troncal en el futur cicle de l'escola secundària obligatòria a Catalunya

Aquest article recull quines han estat les línies mestres en I'elaboració del currículum de geografia per a l'etapa 12-16 anys de I'ensenyament obligatori a Catalunya i la relació entre els conceptes, els procediments i les actituds dissenyats i els objectius generals del cicle. S'hi fa també una reflexió sobre les aportacions de la geografia al currículum de I'etapa i sobre la formació del professorat que I'ha d'impartir.

Tumor-host interactions Part 1: Stromal signatures of breast and prostate cancer Part 2: GLG1 and the control of the secretory pathway in tumor cells

Tumor-host interaction is a key determinant during cancer progression, from primary tumor growth to metastatic dissemination. At each step, tumor cells have to adapt to and subvert different types of microenvironment, leading to major phenotypic and genotypic alterations that affect both tumor and surrounding stromal compartments. Understanding the molecular mechanisms that govern tumor-host interplay may be essential for better comprehension of tumorigenesis in an effort to improve current anti-cancer therapies. The present work is composed of two projects that address tumor-host interactions from two different perspectives, the first focusing on the characterization of tumor-associated stroma and the second on membrane trafficking in tumor cells. Part 1. To selectively address stromal gene expression changes during cancer progression, oligonucleotide-based Affymetrix microarray technology was used to analyze the transcriptomes of laser-microdissected stromal cells derived from invasive human breast and prostate carcinoma. Comparison showed that invasive breast and prostate cancer elicit distinct, tumor-specific stromal responses, with a limited panel of shared induced and/or repressed genes. Both breast and prostate tumor-specific deregulated stromal gene sets displayed statistically significant survival-predictive ability for their respective tumor type. By contrast, a stromal gene signature common to both tumor types did not display prognostic value, although expression of two individual genes within this common signature was found to be associated with patient survival. Part 2. GLG1 is known as an E-selectin ligand and an intracellular FGF receptor, depending on cell type and context. Immunohistochemical and immunofluorescence analyses showed that GLG1 is primarily localized in the Golgi of human tumor cells, a central location in the biosynthetic/secretory pathways. GLG1 has been shown to interact with and to recruit the ARF GEF BIGI to the Golgi membrane. Depletion of GLG1 or BIGI markedly reduced ARF3 membrane localization and activation, and altered the Golgi structure. Interestingly, these perturbations did not impair constitutive secretion in general, but rather seemed to impair secretion of a specific subset of proteins that includes MMP-9. Thus, GLG1 coordinates ARF3 activation by recruiting BIGI to the Golgi membrane, thereby affecting secretion of specific molecules. - Les interactions tumeur-hôte constituent un élément essentiel à la progression tumorale, de la croissance de la tumeur primaire à la dissémination des métastases. A chaque étape, les cellules tumorales doivent s'adapter à différents types de microenvironnement et les détourner à leur propre avantage, donnant lieu à des altérations phénotypiques et génotypiques majeures qui affectent aussi bien la tumeur elle-même que le compartiment stromal environnant. L'étude des mécanismes moléculaires qui régissent les interactions tumeur-hôte constitue une étape essentielle pour une meilleure compréhension du processus de tumorigenèse dans le but d'améliorer les thérapies anti cancer existantes. Le travail présenté ici est composé de deux projets qui abordent la problématique des interactions tumeur-hôte selon différentes perspectives, le premier se concentrant sur la caractérisation du stroma tumoral et le second sur le trafic intracellulaire des cellules tumorales. Partie 1. Pour examiner les changements d'expression des gènes dans le stroma en réponse à la progression du cancer, des puces à ADN Affymetrix ont été utilisées afin d'analyser les transcriptomes des cellules stromales issues de carcinomes invasifs du sein et de la prostate et collectées par microdissection au laser. L'analyse comparative a montré que les cancers invasifs du sein et de la prostate provoquent des réponses stromales spécifiques à chaque type de tumeur, et présentent peu de gènes induits ou réprimés de façon similaire. L'ensemble des gènes dérégulés dans le stroma associé au cancer du sein, ou à celui de la prostate, présente une valeur pronostique pour les patients atteints d'un cancer du sein, respectivement de la prostate. En revanche, la signature stromale commune aux deux types de cancer n'a aucune valeur prédictive, malgré le fait que l'expression de deux gènes présents dans cette liste soit liée à la survie des patients. Partie 2. GLG1 est connu comme un ligand des sélectines E ainsi que comme récepteur intracellulaire pour des facteurs de croissances FGFs selon le type de cellule dans lequel il est exprimé. Des analyses immunohistochimiques et d'immunofluorescence ont montré que dans les cellules tumorales, GLG1 est principalement localisé au niveau de l'appareil de Golgi, une place centrale dans la voie biosynthétique et sécrétoire. Nous avons montré que GLG1 interagit avec la protéine BIGI et participe à son recrutement à la membrane du Golgi. L'absence de GLG1 ou de BIGI réduit drastiquement le pool d'ARF3 associé aux membranes ainsi que la quantité d'ARF3 activés, et modifie la structure de l'appareil de Golgi. Il est particulièrement intéressant de constater que ces perturbations n'ont pas d'effet sur la sécrétion constitutive en général, mais semblent plutôt affecter la sécrétion spécifique d'un sous-groupe défini de protéines comprenant MMP-9. GLG1 coordonne donc l'activation de ARF3 en recrutant BIGI à la membrane du Golgi, agissant par ce moyen sur la sécrétion de molécules spécifiques.