From short-range barotropic modelling to extended-range global weather prediction: a 40-year perspective

At the end of the 20th century, we can look back on a spectacular development of numerical weather prediction, which has, practically uninterrupted, been going on since the middle of the century. High-resolution predictions for more than a week ahead for any part of the globe are now routinely produced and anyone with an Internet connection can access many of these forecasts for anywhere in the world. Extended predictions for several seasons ahead are also being done — the latest El Niño event in 1997/1998 is an example of such a successful prediction. The great achievement is due to a number of factors including the progress in computational technology and the establishment of global observing systems, combined with a systematic research program with an overall strategy towards building comprehensive prediction systems for climate and weather. In this article, I will discuss the different evolutionary steps in this development and the way new scientific ideas have contributed to efficiently explore the computing power and in using observations from new types of observing systems. Weather prediction is not an exact science due to unavoidable errors in initial data and in the models. To quantify the reliability of a forecast is therefore essential and probably more so the longer the forecasts are. Ensemble prediction is thus a new and important concept in weather and climate prediction, which I believe will become a routine aspect of weather prediction in the future. The limit between weather and climate prediction is becoming more and more diffuse and in the final part of this article I will outline the way I think development may proceed in the future.

A twenty-year independent record of sea surface temperature for climate from Along-track Scanning Radiometers

A new record of sea surface temperature (SST) for climate applications is described. This record provides independent corroboration of global variations estimated from SST measurements made in situ. Infrared imagery from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSRs) is used to create a 20 year time series of SST at 0.1° latitude-longitude resolution, in the ATSR Reprocessing for Climate (ARC) project. A very high degree of independence of in situ measurements is achieved via physics-based techniques. Skin SST and SST estimated for 20 cm depth are provided, with grid cell uncertainty estimates. Comparison with in situ data sets establishes that ARC SSTs generally have bias of order 0.1 K or smaller. The precision of the ARC SSTs is 0.14 K during 2003 to 2009, from three-way error analysis. Over the period 1994 to 2010, ARC SSTs are stable, with better than 95% confidence, to within 0.005 K yr−1(demonstrated for tropical regions). The data set appears useful for cleanly quantifying interannual variability in SST and major SST anomalies. The ARC SST global anomaly time series is compared to the in situ-based Hadley Centre SST data set version 3 (HadSST3). Within known uncertainties in bias adjustments applied to in situ measurements, the independent ARC record and HadSST3 present the same variations in global marine temperature since 1996. Since the in situ observing system evolved significantly in its mix of measurement platforms and techniques over this period, ARC SSTs provide an important corroboration that HadSST3 accurately represents recent variability and change in this essential climate variable.

The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on station rainfall and river level in the Fly River system, Papua New Guinea

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in tropical rainfall on the large scale, but its signal is often obscured in individual station data, where effects are most directly felt at the local level. The Fly River system, Papua New Guinea, is one of the wettest regions on Earth and is at the heart of the MJO envelope. A 16 year time series of daily precipitation at 15 stations along the river system exhibits strong MJO modulation in rainfall. At each station, the difference in rainfall rate between active and suppressed MJO conditions is typically 40% of the station mean. The spread of rainfall between individual MJO events was small enough such that the rainfall distributions between wet and dry phases of the MJO were clearly separated at the catchment level. This implies that successful prediction of the large-scale MJO envelope will have a practical use for forecasting local rainfall. In the steep topography of the New Guinea Highlands, the mean and MJO signal in station precipitation is twice that in the satellite Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42HQ product, emphasizing the need for ground-truthing satellite-based precipitation measurements. A clear MJO signal is also present in the river level, which peaks simultaneously with MJO precipitation input in its upper reaches but lags the precipitation by approximately 18 days on the flood plains.

A pilot study investigating the effects of a single dose of a flavonoid-rich blueberry drink on memory in 8-10 year old children

Recent evidence from animal and adult human subjects has demonstrated potential benefits to cognition from flavonoid supplementation. This study aimed to investigate whether these cognitive benefits extended to a sample of school-aged children. Using a cross-over design, with a wash out of at least seven days between drinks, fourteen 8-10 year old children consumed either a flavonoid-rich blueberry drink or matched vehicle. Two hours after consumption, subjects completed a battery of five cognitive tests comprising the Go-NoGo, Stroop, Rey’s Auditory Verbal Learning Task, Object Location Task, and a Visual N-back. In comparison to vehicle, the blueberry drink produced significant improvements in the delayed recall of a previously learned list of words, showing for the first time a cognitive benefit for acute flavonoid intervention in children. However, performance on a measure of proactive interference indicated that the blueberry intervention led to a greater negative impact of previously memorised words on the encoding of a set of new words. There was no benefit of our blueberry intervention for measures of attention, response inhibition or visuo-spatial memory. While findings are mixed, the improvements in delayed recall found in this pilot study suggest that, following acute flavonoid-rich blueberry interventions, school aged children encode memory items more effectively.

New models of North West European Holocene palaeogeography and inundation

This paper presents new 500 year interval palaeogeographic models for Britain, Ireland and the North West French coast from 11000 cal. BP to present. These models are used to calculate the varying rates of inundation for different geographical zones over the study period. This allows for consideration of the differential impact that Holocene sea-level rise had across space and time, and on past societies. In turn, consideration of the limitations of the models helps to foreground profitable areas for future research.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

A New Yardstick for Rating Dental Arch Relationship in Patients With Complete Bilateral Cleft Lip and Palate

Objective: To develop yardsticks for assessment of dental arch relationship in young individuals with repaired complete bilateral cleft lip and palate appropriate to different stages of dental development. Participants: Eleven cleft team orthodontists from five countries worked on the projects for 4 days. A total of 776 sets of standardized plaster models from 411 patients with operated complete bilateral cleft lip and palate were available for the exercise. Statistics: The interexaminer reliability was calculated using weighted kappa statistics. Results: The interrater weighted kappa scores were between .74 and .92, which is in the ""good"" to ""very good"" categories. Conclusions: Three bilateral cleft lip and palate yardsticks for different developmental stages of the dentition were made: one for the deciduous dentition (6-year-olds` yardstick), one for early mixed dentition (9-year-olds` yardstick), and one for early permanent dentition (12-year-olds` yardstick).

Changes of a mutualistic network over time: reanalysis over a 10-year period

We analyzed the structure of a multispecific network or interacting ants and plants bearing extrafloral nectaries recorded in 1990 and again in 2000 in La Mancha, Veracruz, Mexico. We assessed the replicability of the number of interactions found among species and also whether there had been changes in the network structure associated with appearance of new ant and plant species during. that 10-year period. Our results show that the nested topology of the network was similar between sampling dates, group dissimilarity increased, mean number of interactions for ant species increased, the frequency distribution of standardized degrees reached higher values for plant species, more ant species and fewer plant species constituted the core of the more recent network, and the presence of new ant and plant species increased while their contribution to nestedness remained the same. Generalist species (i.e., those with the most links or interactions) appeared to maintain the stability of the network because the new species incorporated into the communities were linked to this core of generalists. Camponotus planatus was the most extreme generalist ant species (the one with the most links) in both networks, followed by four other ant species; but other species changed either their position along the continuum of generalists relative to specialists or their presence or absence within the network. Even though new species moved into the area during the decade between the surveys, the overall network structure remained unmodified.

Ecosystem health of Montevideo coastal zone: A multi approach using some different benthic indicators to improve a ten-year-ago assessment

A study on the benthic ecosystem health was performed to assess the environmental quality of Montevideo coastal zone, in view of the construction of a new sanitation system. Data were compared to previous research undertaken 10 years ago, and biochemical composition of organic matter, heavy metals, organic matter, phytopigments, benthic diatoms, macrofauna community structure and a biotic index (AMBI) were used as proxies. Results indicate an environmental quality-gradient, with the worst conditions within the inner stations of Montevideo Bay and an improvement towards the adjacent coastal zone. Higher levels of chromium, lead, phaeopigments, organic biopolymers and poor benthic macrofauna and diatom communities, characterised the hypertrophic innermost portion of Montevideo Bay. Data indicated a clear deterioration of the adjacent coastal zone comparatively to that observed 10 years ago. The complementary use of approaches not applied before (benthic diatoms and organic biopolymers) with those formerly applied improve our assessment of the trophic status and the environmental health of the area. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Valuing emerging markets companies : new approaches to determine the effective exposure to country risk

The aim of this paper is to propose new methods to measure the effective exposure to country risk of emerging-market companies. Starting from Damodaran (2003), we propose seven new approaches and a revised CAPM for emerging markets companies. The “Prospective Lambda” represents the effective exposure according to analysts’ estimates of growth. The “Relative Lambda” relies on the firm value estimated through a relative valuation. The “Retrospective Lambda” represents the ex-post effective exposure to country risk. The “Company Effective Risk Premium” is a generalization of the Retrospective Lambda, and expresses the premium effectively requested by investors to invest in that specific company in the past year. “The Actual Lambda” and the “Company Actual Risk Premium” represent, respectively, the actual exposure to country risk of a company and the actual premium requested by investors to invest in that specific company. The “Industry Lambda” reflects the median exposure to country risk of the industry in which the company belongs. We tested our new measures of exposure to country risk on the Latin American emerging markets companies according to the classification of the MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index. The results confirm that the new approaches can be effectively applied by financial analysts to stable-growth companies that operate in emerging markets and to mature markets companies that operate in emerging markets, providing with a more reliable estimate of both the premium effectively requested by investors in the past and the actual premium. Applying the new approaches, the cost of equity reflects the effective exposure of a company to country risk without being over- or underestimated, as is the case with other existing approaches.

Evolution of ethyl carbamate during Madeira wine ageing by GC-MS: a new methodology

Recently, ethyl carbamate (EC) was reclassified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) as "probably carcinogenic to humans" and occurs mainly in fermented beverages. Nowadays many countries have set limit values for EC in alcoholic beverages. In this sense and taking into account the low concentrations found in alcoholic beverages, the scientific community has shown interest for the development of new analytical methods, whereby its simplification plays an important role in the EC control and prevention. Firstly, a simple, rapid and sensitive methodology was developed for the EC quantification in fortified wines by microextraction by packed sorbent (MEPS) with gas chromatography coupled with a mass spectrometer detector (GC-MS). This method showed good linearity (R2 = 0.999) and sensitivity (LOD = 1.5 μg/L). The accuracy of the method was assessed by means of repeatability and reproducibility (RSD < 7%). Moreover, a good recovery has been demonstrated (97 – 106%) as well as its applicability (16 fortified wines). Thus, the developed methodology has proven to be an excellent approach for routine quantification of EC in fortified wines. The EC evolution was also evaluated during a year and half of Madeira wine ageing submitted to two traditional ageing methods, estufagem and canteiro, in order to evaluate the formation kinetic. The results revealed that estufagem process increased the formation kinetic and promoted a linear increase of the EC concentration (R2 ≥ 0.977), proportionally to the ageing time (4 months). However, when the wines are firstly submitted to estufagem and then undergo canteiro ageing, the EC values remain almost constant during the following 14 months. The results suggest that estufagem does not seem to be the critical factor in the EC formation, but instead the amount of precursors in the medium.

Effect of the consumption of a new symbiotic shake on glycemia and cholesterol levels in elderly people with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Background: The consumption of foods containing probiotic and prebiotic ingredients is growing consistently every year, and in view of the limited number of studies investigating their effect in the elderly.Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of the consumption of a symbiotic shake containing Lactobacillus acidophilus, Bifidobacterium bifidum and fructooligosaccharides on glycemia and cholesterol levels in elderly people.Methods: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study was conducted on twenty volunteers (ten for placebo group and ten for symbiotic group), aged 50 to 60 years. The criteria for inclusion in the study were: total cholesterol > 200 mg/dL; triglycerides > 200 mg/dL and glycemia > 110 mg/dL. Over a total test period of 30 days, 10 individuals (the symbiotic group) consumed a daily dose of 200 mL of a symbiotic shake containing 10(8) UFC/mL Lactobacillus acidophilus, 10(8) UFC/mL Bifidobacterium bifidum and 2 g oligofructose, while 10 other volunteers (the placebo group) drank daily the same amount of a shake that did not contain any symbiotic bacteria. Blood samples were collected 15 days prior to the start of the experiment and at 10-day intervals after the beginning of the shake intake. The standard lipid profile (total cholesterol, triglycerides and HDL cholesterol) and glycemia, or blood sugar levels, were evaluated by an enzyme colorimetric assay.Results: The results of the symbiotic group showed a non-significant reduction (P > 0.05) in total cholesterol and triglycerides, a significant increase (P < 0.05) in HDL cholesterol and a significant reduction (P < 0.05) in fasting glycemia. No significant changes were observed in the placebo group.Conclusion: The consumption of symbiotic shake resulted in a significant increase in HDL and a significant decrease of glycemia.

Delay from fracture to hospital admission: a new risk factor for hip fracture mortality?

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Paracoccidioidomycosis of external genitalia: report of six new cases and review of the literature

BACKGROUND: Paracoccidioidomycosis is a systemic mycosis of dermatological interest due to the frequency of cutaneous and mucosal lesions. The involvement of the external genitalia is extremely rare and few cases have been reported.OBJECTIVE: To study the prevalence of external genitalia lesions in paracoccidioidomycosis patients, identify clinical characteristics and compare with what is observed in the specific literature.METHODS: This is a cross-sectional, descriptive study, with focus on paracoccidioiodomycosis patients with external genitalia lesions. The demographic and clinical aspects of cases were compared with what has been reported so far on LILACS, SciELO e MEDLINE data bases.RESULTS: Data of 483 cases of paracoccidioidomycosis were studied in a 42-year period. Six (1.2%) patients showed specific lesions on external genitalia. Five patients were male with mean age of 47.2 years and all of them presented with the chronic multifocal clinical form. Only one, a 15-year-old female patient was observed who showed a subacute clinical form, juvenile type.CONCLUSIONS: Compromise of the genitourinary tract among paracoccidioidomycosis patients is rare and even rarer when only the external genitalia are considered. As observed in the classical picture of paracoccidioidomycosis patients, the male gender and the chronic multifocal clinical form prevailed in the present study.

Consequences of Chronic Nasal Obstruction on the Laryngeal Mucosa and Voice Quality of 4- to 12-Year-Old Children

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)