932 resultados para Multilevel linear model
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Aim To assess the distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends of cetaceans. Location The study area included all major inland waters of Southeast Alaska. Methods Between 1991 and 2007, cetacean surveys were conducted by observers who kept a constant watch when the vessel was underway and recorded all cetaceans encountered. For each species, we examined distributional patterns, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends. Analysis of variance (anova F) was used to test for differences in group sizes between multiple means, and Student’s t-test was used to detect differences between pairwise means. Cetacean seasonal occurrence and annual trends were investigated using a generalized linear model framework. Results Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) were seen throughout the region, with numbers lowest in spring and highest in the fall. Fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) distributions were more restricted than that reported for humpback whales, and the low number of sightings precluded evaluating seasonal trends. Three killer whale (Orcinus orca) eco-types were documented with distributions occurring throughout inland waters. Seasonal patterns were not detected or could not be evaluated for resident and offshore killer whales, respectively; however, the transient eco-type was more abundant in the summer. Dall’s porpoise (Phocoenoides dalli) were distributed throughout the region, with more sightings in spring and summer than in fall. Harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) distribution was clumped, with concentrations occurring in the Icy Strait/Glacier Bay and Wrangell areas and with no evidence of seasonality. Pacific white-sided dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obliquidens) were observed only occasionally, with more sightings in the spring. For most species, group size varied on both an annual and seasonal basis. Main conclusions Seven cetacean species occupy the inland waters of Southeast Alaska, with distribution, group size, seasonal occurrence and annual trends varying by species. Future studies that compare spatial and temporal patterns with other features (e.g. oceanography, prey resources) may help in identifying the key factors that support the high density and biodiversity of cetaceans found in this region. An increased understanding of the region’s marine ecology is an essential step towards ensuring the long-term conservation of cetaceans in Southeast Alaska.
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Classical sampling methods can be used to estimate the mean of a finite or infinite population. Block kriging also estimates the mean, but of an infinite population in a continuous spatial domain. In this paper, I consider a finite population version of block kriging (FPBK) for plot-based sampling. The data are assumed to come from a spatial stochastic process. Minimizing mean-squared-prediction errors yields best linear unbiased predictions that are a finite population version of block kriging. FPBK has versions comparable to simple random sampling and stratified sampling, and includes the general linear model. This method has been tested for several years for moose surveys in Alaska, and an example is given where results are compared to stratified random sampling. In general, assuming a spatial model gives three main advantages over classical sampling: (1) FPBK is usually more precise than simple or stratified random sampling, (2) FPBK allows small area estimation, and (3) FPBK allows nonrandom sampling designs.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Despite their importance in the evaluation of petroleum and gas reservoirs, measurements of self-potential data under borehole conditions (well-logging) have found only minor applications in aquifer and waste-site characterization. This can be attributed to lower signals from the diffusion fronts in near-surface environments because measurements are made long after the drilling of the well, when concentration fronts are already disappearing. Proportionally higher signals arise from streaming potentials that prevent using simple interpretation models that assume signals from diffusion only. Our laboratory experiments found that dual-source self-potential signals can be described by a simple linear model, and that contributions (from diffusion and streaming potentials) can be isolated by slightly perturbing the borehole conditions. Perturbations are applied either by changing the concentration of the borehole-filling solution or its column height. Parameters useful for formation evaluation can be estimated from data measured during perturbations, namely, pore water resistivity, pressure drop across the borehole wall, and electrokinetic coupling parameter. These are important parameters to assess, respectively, water quality, aquifer lateral continuity, and interfacial properties of permeable formations.
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Lemonte and Cordeiro [Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 53 (2009), pp. 4441-4452] introduced a class of Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. We give a general matrix Bartlett correction formula to improve the likelihood ratio (LR) tests in these models. The formula is simple enough to be used analytically to obtain several closed-form expressions in special cases. Our results generalize those in Lemonte et al. [Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions, Comput. Stat. DataAnal. 54 (2010), pp. 1307-1316], which hold only for the BS linear regression models. We consider Monte Carlo simulations to show that the corrected tests work better than the usual LR tests.
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Objective. Mortality from asthma has varied among countries during the last several decades. This study aimed to identify temporal trends of asthma mortality in Brazil from 1980 to 2010. Method. We analyzed 6840 deaths of patients aged 5-34 years that occurred in Brazil with the underlying cause of asthma. We applied a log-linear model using Poisson regression to verify peaks and trends. We also calculated the point estimation and 95% confidence interval (CI 95%) of the annual percent change (APC) of the mortality rates, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) for 2001-2010. Results. A decline was observed from 1980 to 1992 [APC = -3.4 (-5.0 to -1.8)], followed by a nonsignificant rise until 1996 [APC = 6.8 (-1.4 to 15.6)], and a new downward trend from 1997 to 2010 [APC = -2.7 (-3.9 to -1.6)]. The APCs varied according to age strata: 5-14 years from 1980 to 2010 [-0.3 (-1.1 to 0.5)]; 15-24 years from 1980 to 1991 [-2.1 (-5.0 to 0.9)], from 1992 to 1996 [6.8 (-6.7 to 22.2)], and from 1997 to 2010 [-3.9 (-5.7 to -2.0)]; 24-25 years from 1980 to 1992 [-2.5 (-4.6 to -0.3)], from 1993 to 1995 [12.0 (-21.1 to 59.1)], and from 1996-2010 [-1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4)]. AAPC from 2001 to 2010 was -1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4); the decline for this period was significant for patients over 15 years old, women, and those living in the Southeast region. Conclusion. Asthma mortality rates in Brazil have been declining since the late 1990s.
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Purpose: To evaluate the relationship between glaucomatous structural damage assessed by the Cirrus Spectral Domain OCT (SDOCT) and functional loss as measured by standard automated perimetry (SAP). Methods: Four hundred twenty-two eyes (78 healthy, 210 suspects, 134 glaucomatous) of 250 patients were recruited from the longitudinal Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study and from the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study. All eyes underwent testing with the Cirrus SDOCT and SAP within a 6-month period. The relationship between parapapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFL) sectors and corresponding topographic SAP locations was evaluated using locally weighted scatterplot smoothing and regression analysis. SAP sensitivity values were evaluated using both linear as well as logarithmic scales. We also tested the fit of a model (Hood) for structure-function relationship in glaucoma. Results: Structure was significantly related to function for all but the nasal thickness sector. The relationship was strongest for superotemporal RNFL thickness and inferonasal sensitivity (R(2) = 0.314, P < 0.001). The Hood model fitted the data relatively well with 88% of the eyes inside the 95% confidence interval predicted by the model. Conclusions: RNFL thinning measured by the Cirrus SDOCT was associated with correspondent visual field loss in glaucoma.
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Abstract Background The success of HPV vaccination programs will require awareness regarding HPV associated diseases and the benefits of HPV vaccination for the general population. The aim of this study was to assess the level of awareness and knowledge of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, cervical cancer prevention, vaccines, and factors associated with HPV awareness among young women after birth of the first child. Methods This analysis is part of a cross-sectional study carried out at Hospital Maternidade Leonor Mendes de Barros, a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo. Primiparous women (15-24 years) who gave birth in that maternity hospital were included. A questionnaire that included questions concerning knowledge of HPV, cervical cancer, and vaccines was applied. To estimate the association of HPV awareness with selected factors, prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated using a generalized linear model (GLM). Results Three hundred and one primiparous women were included; 37% of them reported that they "had ever heard about HPV", but only 19% and 7%, respectively, knew that HPV is a sexually transmitted infection (STI) and that it can cause cervical cancer. Seventy-four percent of interviewees mentioned the preventive character of vaccines and all participants affirmed that they would accept HPV vaccination after delivery. In the multivariate analysis, only increasing age (P for trend = 0.021) and previous STI (P < 0.001) were factors independently associated with HPV awareness ("had ever heard about HPV"). Conclusions This survey indicated that knowledge about the association between HPV and cervical cancer among primiparous young women is low. Therefore, these young low-income primiparous women could benefit greatly from educational interventions to encourage primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention programs.
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The correlation of soil fertility x seed physiological potential is very important in the area of seed technology but results published with that theme are contradictory. For this reason, this study to evaluate the correlations between soil chemical properties and physiological potential of soybean seeds. On georeferenced points, both soil and seeds were sampled for analysis of soil fertility and seed physiological potential. Data were assessed by the following analyses: descriptive statistics; Pearson's linear correlation; and geostatistics. The adjusted parameters of the semivariograms were used to produce maps of spatial distribution for each variable. Organic matter content, Mn and Cu showed significant effects on seed germination. Most variables studied presented moderate to high spatial dependence. Germination and accelerated aging of seeds, and P, Ca, Mg, Mn, Cu and Zn showed a better fit to spherical semivariogram: organic matter, pH and K had a better fit to Gaussian model; and V% and Fe showed a better fit to the linear model. The values for range of spatial dependence varied from 89.9 m for P until 651.4 m for Fe. These values should be considered when new samples are collected for assessing soil fertility in this production area.
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OBJECTIVE: To identify the nutritional status and food intake of individuals with systemic psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis associated. METHODS: This is an exploratory and cross-sectional study with 34 men aged between 19 and 60 years seen at a Psoriasis Center. Participants were divided into systemic psoriasis group and arthritic-systemic psoriasis associated group. For nutritional assessment we used anthropometry, bioelectrical impedance analysis and whole-body plethysmography. Clinical and nutritional information were assessed using the clinical and nutritional history-taking, and the 24-hour dietary recall. For statistics the general linear model test (p < 0.05) was used. RESULTS: According to the body mass index 29.4% patients (n = 10) were eutrophic, 41.2% (n = 14) overweight and 29% (n = 10) obese. Almost all individuals (60%; n = 21) had body fat percentage above normal levels (> 25%) and a high risk for metabolic complications according to the waist circumference and the obesity index, however, there were no statistically significant differences between groups. The mean food intake, total fat, calories and protein were above recommended levels, being 58.8% for lipids (319.17 ± 241.02 mg of cholesterol and 17.42 ± 11.4 g saturated fatty acids); 29.4% for calories and 67.6% for proteins. Thus, regardless of the psoriasis type, an excessive consumption of calories, lipids, fatty acids, cholesterol and a higher incidence of overweight were found. CONCLUSION: The sample showed an abnormal nutritional condition, an increased risk for chronic diseases related to obesity, worsening of the psoriatic lesions, and poor quality of life.
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Dasyatis guttata has been target of artisanal fisheries in the coast of Bahia (Northeast Brazil) mainly by “arraieira” (gillnet) and “grozeira” (bottom long-line), but until now there is no stock assessment study. One of the important data for this knowledge is reliable indices of abundance. The aims of the present work are to: (1) estimate the best predictor for relative abundance (catch-per-unit-of-effort, CPUE), examining whether catch (production – kg) was related to: soak time of the gear, size of the gillnet or number of hooks, applying generalized linear model (GLM); (2) estimate the annual CPUE (kg/hooks and kg/m) averaged by gear; and (3) assess the temporal CPUE variance. Based on monthly sampling between January 2012 and January 2013, 222 landings by grozeira and 76 by arraiaiera were recorded in the two landing sites in Todos os Santos Bay, Bahia. A total of 14,550 kg (average = 44 kg/month) of D. guttata was captured. Models for both gears were highly significant (P < 0.0001). The analysis indicated that the most appropriate variable for CPUE analysis was the size of the gillnet (P < 0.001) and the number of hooks (P < 0.0001). Soak time of the gear was not significant for both gears (P = 0.4). High residual deviance expresses the complexity of the relations between ecosystem factors and other fisheries factors affecting relative abundance, which were not considered in this study. The average CPUE by grozeira was 6.39 kg/100 hooks ± 8.89 and by arraieira, 1.47 kg/100 m ± 1.66 over the year. Kruskal-Wallis test showed effect of the month on the mean grozeira CPUE (P = <0.001), but no effect (P = 0.096) on the mean arraieira CPUE. Grozeira CPUE values were highest in December and March, and lowest between May to August
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This thesis deals with two important research aspects concerning radio frequency (RF) microresonators and switches. First, a new approach for compact modeling and simulation of these devices is presented. Then, a combined process flow for their simultaneous fabrication on a SOI substrate is proposed. Compact models for microresonators and switches are extracted by applying mathematical model order reduction (MOR) to the devices finite element (FE) description in ANSYS c° . The behaviour of these devices includes forms of nonlinearities. However, an approximation in the creation of the FE model is introduced, which enables the use of linear model order reduction. Microresonators are modeled with the introduction of transducer elements, which allow for direct coupling of the electrical and mechanical domain. The coupled system element matrices are linearized around an operating point and reduced. The resulting macromodel is valid for small signal analysis around the bias point, such as harmonic pre-stressed analysis. This is extremely useful for characterizing the frequency response of resonators. Compact modelling of switches preserves the nonlinearity of the device behaviour. Nonlinear reduced order models are obtained by reducing the number of nonlinearities in the system and handling them as input to the system. In this way, the system can be reduced using linear MOR techniques and nonlinearities are introduced directly in the reduced order model. The reduction of the number of system nonlinearities implies the approximation of all distributed forces in the model with lumped forces. Both for microresonators and switches, a procedure for matrices extraction has been developed so that reduced order models include the effects of electrical and mechanical pre-stress. The extraction process is fast and can be done automatically from ANSYS binary files. The method has been applied for the simulation of several devices both at devices and circuit level. Simulation results have been compared with full model simulations, and, when available, experimental data. Reduced order models have proven to conserve the accuracy of finite element method and to give a good description of the overall device behaviour, despite the introduced approximations. In addition, simulation is very fast, both at device and circuit level. A combined process-flow for the integrated fabrication of microresonators and switches has been defined. For this purpose, two processes that are optimized for the independent fabrication of these devices are merged. The major advantage of this process is the possibility to create on-chip circuit blocks that include both microresonators and switches. An application is, for example, aswitched filter bank for wireless transceiver. The process for microresonators fabrication is characterized by the use of silicon on insulator (SOI) wafers and on a deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) step for the creation of the vibrating structures in single-crystal silicon and the use of a sacrificial oxide layer for the definition of resonator to electrode distance. The fabrication of switches is characterized by the use of two different conductive layers for the definition of the actuation electrodes and by the use of a photoresist as a sacrificial layer for the creation of the suspended structure. Both processes have a gold electroplating step, for the creation of the resonators electrodes, transmission lines and suspended structures. The combined process flow is designed such that it conserves the basic properties of the original processes. Neither the performance of the resonators nor the performance of the switches results affected by the simultaneous fabrication. Moreover, common fabrication steps are shared, which allows for cheaper and faster fabrication.
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In Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), evaluating the seismic performance (or seismic risk) of a structure at a designed site has gained major attention, especially in the past decade. One of the objectives in PBEE is to quantify the seismic reliability of a structure (due to the future random earthquakes) at a site. For that purpose, Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA) is utilized as a tool to estimate the Mean Annual Frequency (MAF) of exceeding a specified value of a structural Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP). This dissertation focuses mainly on applying an average of a certain number of spectral acceleration ordinates in a certain interval of periods, Sa,avg (T1,…,Tn), as scalar ground motion Intensity Measure (IM) when assessing the seismic performance of inelastic structures. Since the interval of periods where computing Sa,avg is related to the more or less influence of higher vibration modes on the inelastic response, it is appropriate to speak about improved IMs. The results using these improved IMs are compared with a conventional elastic-based scalar IMs (e.g., pseudo spectral acceleration, Sa ( T(¹)), or peak ground acceleration, PGA) and the advanced inelastic-based scalar IM (i.e., inelastic spectral displacement, Sdi). The advantages of applying improved IMs are: (i ) "computability" of the seismic hazard according to traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), because ground motion prediction models are already available for Sa (Ti), and hence it is possibile to employ existing models to assess hazard in terms of Sa,avg, and (ii ) "efficiency" or smaller variability of structural response, which was minimized to assess the optimal range to compute Sa,avg. More work is needed to assess also "sufficiency" and "scaling robustness" desirable properties, which are disregarded in this dissertation. However, for ordinary records (i.e., with no pulse like effects), using the improved IMs is found to be more accurate than using the elastic- and inelastic-based IMs. For structural demands that are dominated by the first mode of vibration, using Sa,avg can be negligible relative to the conventionally-used Sa (T(¹)) and the advanced Sdi. For structural demands with sign.cant higher-mode contribution, an improved scalar IM that incorporates higher modes needs to be utilized. In order to fully understand the influence of the IM on the seismis risk, a simplified closed-form expression for the probability of exceeding a limit state capacity was chosen as a reliability measure under seismic excitations and implemented for Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame structures. This closed-form expression is partuclarly useful for seismic assessment and design of structures, taking into account the uncertainty in the generic variables, structural "demand" and "capacity" as well as the uncertainty in seismic excitations. The assumed framework employs nonlinear Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedures in order to estimate variability in the response of the structure (demand) to seismic excitations, conditioned to IM. The estimation of the seismic risk using the simplified closed-form expression is affected by IM, because the final seismic risk is not constant, but with the same order of magnitude. Possible reasons concern the non-linear model assumed, or the insufficiency of the selected IM. Since it is impossibile to state what is the "real" probability of exceeding a limit state looking the total risk, the only way is represented by the optimization of the desirable properties of an IM.