Implementing fisher Black's simple discounting rule

We propose a simple implementation of Black’s (1988) elegant rule for discounting uncertain future cash flows. Black’s rule avoids the thorny problem of estimating an appropriate risk-adjusted discount rate. Instead, the rule calls for discounting conditional mean cash flows at appropriate riskless interest rates. Our contribution in this article is to describe and illustrate a method of estimating the conditional mean cash flows called for in Black’s rule. The method is quite flexible with respect to the types of information available concerning the distributions of future cash flows. We argue that this approach to computing present values offers a theoretically sound and generally feasible addition to the toolbox of financial managers.

What is the incidence of intracranial bleeding in patients with mild traumatic brain injury? A retrospective study in 3088 Canadian CT head rule patients

OBJECTIVE Only limited data exists in terms of the incidence of intracranial bleeding (ICB) in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI). METHODS We retrospectively identified 3088 patients (mean age 41 range (7-99) years) presenting with isolated MTBI and GCS 14-15 at our Emergency Department who had undergone cranial CT (CCT) between 2002 and 2011. Indication for CCT was according to the "Canadian CT head rules." Patients with ICB were either submitted for neurosurgical treatment or kept under surveillance for at least 24 hours. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to correlate the incidence of ICB with age, gender, or intake of coumarins, platelet aggregation inhibitors, or heparins. RESULTS 149 patients (4.8%) had ICB on CCT. No patient with ICB died or deteriorated neurologically. The incidence of ICB increased with age and intake of anticoagulants without clinically relevant correlation (R = 0.11; P < 0.001; R = -0.06; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Our data show an incidence of 4.8% for ICB after MTBI. However, neurological deterioration after MTBI seems to be rare, and the need for neurosurgical intervention is only required in selected cases. The general need for CCT in patients after MTBI is therefore questionable, and clinical surveillance may be sufficient when CCT is not available.

Caregiver Responses to the Language Mixing of a Young Trilingual

The situation once described by Hoffmann (1985), in which children grow up exposed to three languages from an early age, is a reality for an increasing number of families. In Europe – as elsewhere – greater mobility is leading to greater numbers of mixed-language couples (Piller 2002), and, by extension, multilingual families. For such families, questions concerning the acquisition and maintenance of three or more languages in a natural environment are of direct relevance. Researchers in bilingualism have already pointed out the importance of social context for the acquisition of two languages in childhood, focusing in particular on the quantity and quality of exposure to the languages (De Houwer 1990; Döpke 1992; Okita 2002; Lanza 2004) or the prestige of the languages (Lambert 1977). In this paper, I will make use of the insights gained by such researchers and test them in a trilingual setting. The paper will focus mainly on one aspect, namely the conversational style of parents and caretakers. The data come from research being carried out in Switzerland and consist of 33 interviews with multilingual families, as well as case studies of two trilingual children. The findings attest to the importance of conversational style, but at the same time indicate that a number of further factors are also of great significance.

Prognostic value of the Geneva prediction rule in patients with pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND Assessment of pre-test probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) and prognostic stratification are two widely recommended steps in the management of patients with suspected PE. Some items of the Geneva prediction rule may have a prognostic value. We analyzed whether the initial probability assessed by the Geneva rule was associated with the outcome of patients with PE. METHODS In a post-hoc analysis of a multicenter trial including 1,693 patients with suspected PE, the all-cause death or readmission rates during the 3-month follow-up of patients with confirmed PE were analyzed. PE probability group was prospectively assessed by the revised Geneva score (RGS). Similar analyses were made with the a posteriori-calculated simplified Geneva score (SGS). RESULTS PE was confirmed in 357 patients and 21 (5.9%) died during the 3-month follow-up. The mortality rate differed significantly with the initial RGS group, as with the SGS group. For the RGS, the mortality increased from 0% (95% Confidence Interval: [0-5.4%]) in the low-probability group to 14.3% (95% CI: [6.3-28.2%]) in the high-probability group, and for the SGS, from 0% (95% CI: [0-5.4%] to 17.9% (95% CI: [7.4-36%]). Readmission occurred in 58 out of the 352 patients with complete information on readmission (16.5%). No significant change of readmission rate was found among the RGS or SGS groups. CONCLUSIONS Returning to the initial PE probability evaluation may help clinicians predict 3-month mortality in patients with confirmed PE. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00117169).

D-dimer to Rule Out Pulmonary Embolism in Renal Insufficiency

BACKGROUND D-dimer levels are often elevated in renal insufficiency. The diagnostic accuracy of D-dimer to rule out pulmonary embolism in patients with renal insufficiency is unclear. METHODS We evaluated the data of patients presenting to our Emergency Department and receiving computed tomography angiography to rule out pulmonary embolism with measurement of D-dimer and creatinine. Glomerular filtration rate was calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula. RESULTS There were 1305 patients included; 1067 (82%) had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) exceeding 60 mL/min, 209 (16%) 30-60 mL/min, and 29 (2%) <30 mL/min. One hundred fifty-two patients (12%) had D-dimer below 500 μg/L. eGFR (R = -0.1122) correlated significantly with D-dimer (P <.0001). One hundred sixty-nine patients (13%) were found to have pulmonary embolism. Sensitivity of D-dimer for patients with an eGFR >60 mL/min was 96% (confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.99) and 100% (CI, 100-100) for those with 30-60 mL/min, while specificity decreased significantly with impaired renal function. Area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic for D-dimer was 0.734 in patients with an eGFR of >60 mL/min, and 0.673 for 30-60 mL/min. CONCLUSIONS D-dimer levels were elevated in patients with an eGFR <60 mL/min, but proved to be highly sensitive for the exclusion of pulmonary embolism. However, because almost all patients with impaired renal function had elevated D-dimer irrespective of the presence of pulmonary embolism, studies should be performed to determine renal function-adjusted D-dimer cutoffs.

Diffusive equilibration of N2, O2 and CO2 mixing ratios in a 1.5-million-years-old ice core

In the framework of the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences, one of the most important targets is to retrieve an Antarctic ice core that extends over the last 1.5 million years (i.e. an ice core that enters the climate era when glacial–interglacial cycles followed the obliquity cycles of the earth). In such an ice core the annual layers of the oldest ice would be thinned by a factor of about 100 and the climatic information of a 10 000 yr interval would be contained in less than 1 m of ice. The gas record in such an Antarctic ice core can potentially reveal the role of greenhouse gas forcing on these 40 000 yr cycles. However, besides the extreme thinning of the annual layers, also the long residence time of the trapped air in the ice and the relatively high ice temperatures near the bedrock favour diffusive exchanges. To investigate the changes in the O2 / N2 ratio, as well as the trapped CO2 concentrations, we modelled the diffusive exchange of the trapped gases O2, N2 and CO2 along the vertical axis. However, the boundary conditions of a potential drilling site are not yet well constrained and the uncertainties in the permeation coefficients of the air constituents in the ice are large. In our simulations, we have set the drill site ice thickness at 2700 m and the bedrock ice temperature at 5–10 K below the ice pressure melting point. Using these conditions and including all further uncertainties associated with the drill site and the permeation coefficients, the results suggest that in the oldest ice the precessional variations in the O2 / N2 ratio will be damped by 50–100%, whereas CO2 concentration changes associated with glacial–interglacial variations will likely be conserved (simulated damping 5%). If the precessional O2 / N2 signal will have disappeared completely in this future ice core, orbital tuning of the ice-core age scale will be limited.

Mixing-cell boundary conditions and apparent mass balance errors for advective-dispersive solute transport

In many field or laboratory situations, well-mixed reservoirs like, for instance, injection or detection wells and gas distribution or sampling chambers define boundaries of transport domains. Exchange of solutes or gases across such boundaries can occur through advective or diffusive processes. First we analyzed situations, where the inlet region consists of a well-mixed reservoir, in a systematic way by interpreting them in terms of injection type. Second, we discussed the mass balance errors that seem to appear in case of resident injections. Mixing cells (MC) can be coupled mathematically in different ways to a domain where advective-dispersive transport occurs: by assuming a continuous solute flux at the interface (flux injection, MC-FI), or by assuming a continuous resident concentration (resident injection). In the latter case, the flux leaving the mixing cell can be defined in two ways: either as the value when the interface is approached from the mixing-cell side (MC-RT -), or as the value when it is approached from the column side (MC-RT +). Solutions of these injection types with constant or-in one case-distance-dependent transport parameters were compared to each other as well as to a solution of a two-layer system, where the first layer was characterized by a large dispersion coefficient. These solutions differ mainly at small Peclet numbers. For most real situations, the model for resident injection MC-RI + is considered to be relevant. This type of injection was modeled with a constant or with an exponentially varying dispersion coefficient within the porous medium. A constant dispersion coefficient will be appropriate for gases because of the Eulerian nature of the usually dominating gaseous diffusion coefficient, whereas the asymptotically growing dispersion coefficient will be more appropriate for solutes due to the Lagrangian nature of mechanical dispersion, which evolves only with the fluid flow. Assuming a continuous resident concentration at the interface between a mixing cell and a column, as in case of the MC-RI + model, entails a flux discontinuity. This flux discontinuity arises inherently from the definition of a mixing cell: the mixing process is included in the balance equation, but does not appear in the description of the flux through the mixing cell. There, only convection appears because of the homogeneous concentration within the mixing cell. Thus, the solute flux through a mixing cell in close contact with a transport domain is generally underestimated. This leads to (apparent) mass balance errors, which are often reported for similar situations and erroneously used to judge the validity of such models. Finally, the mixing cell model MC-RI + defines a universal basis regarding the type of solute injection at a boundary. Depending on the mixing cell parameters, it represents, in its limits, flux as well as resident injections. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Lipid-protein interactions drive membrane protein topogenesis in accordance with the positive inside rule.

Transmembrane domain orientation within some membrane proteins is dependent on membrane lipid composition. Initial orientation occurs within the translocon, but final orientation is determined after membrane insertion by interactions within the protein and between lipid headgroups and protein extramembrane domains. Positively and negatively charged amino acids in extramembrane domains represent cytoplasmic retention and membrane translocation forces, respectively, which are determinants of protein orientation. Lipids with no net charge dampen the translocation potential of negative residues working in opposition to cytoplasmic retention of positive residues, thus allowing the functional presence of negative residues in cytoplasmic domains without affecting protein topology.

Genetic Control of Plant Development by Overriding a Geometric Division Rule

Formative cell divisions are critical for multicellular patterning. In the early plant embryo, such divisions follow from orienting the division plane. A major unanswered question is how division plane orientation is genetically controlled, and in particular whether this relates to cell geometry. We have generated a complete 4D map of early Arabidopsis embryogenesis and used computational analysis to demonstrate that several divisions follow a rule that uses the smallest wall area going through the center of the cell. In other cases, however, cell division clearly deviates from this rule, which invariably leads to asymmetric cell division. By analyzing mutant embryos and through targeted genetic perturbation, we show that response to the hormone auxin triggers a deviation from the ``shortest wall'' rule. Our work demonstrates that a simple default rule couples division orientation to cell geometry in the embryo and that genetic regulation can create patterns by overriding the default rule.